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   Experts Getting it Wrong No. 5: T. Montgomery
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Experts Getting it Wrong No. 5: T. Montgomery
« on: Aug 25th, 2015, 4:01am »
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In the wake of the awful season-ending injury to Packers WR Jordy Nelson, this edition of "EGiW" may not be so much about experts getting it wrong, at least not terribly so. Indeed, some are getting it basically right. That said, let's try to get this right with some greater specificity than what you typically find by considering the details of the wide-receiver position. In Green Bay's offense, here is the traditional, technical terminology. The "X" receiver is the split end. As the label suggests, this is the outside-most, deep-threat receiver who stretches the field. The "Y" receiver is the slot receiver. As this label suggests, this is the receiver who is in tight to the formation, mostly goes over or down the middle and is a top-notch run-after-the-catch type guy. These are your starting #1 and #2 receivers in two-wide-receiver sets. The "Z" receiver, the flanker, is a sort of hybrid. The flanker is, in three-wide sets, lined up mid-distance, but can go in tight or out wide. With the evolution of the tight-end position taking on more of a pass-catching role, it has become en vogue to speak of a "move" tight-end. Well, the flanker is sort of the "move" wide receiver (not that all receivers cannot go in motion, mind you).
Okay, with that explained, Nelson is a true X. He is gone. Who is left? WR Randall Cobb is a quintessential Y/Z. WR Davante Adams is an X/Z, that is, can work inside or out. WR Jeff Janis is, like Nelson, an X. So, it may seem as though he stands to benefit most from the Nelson injury. However, Adams is generally superior to Janis, and the X receiver is all-important and needs to be filled with the best (suitable) play-maker. Adams probably moves outside to X. Cobb stays at Y. Who then is the Z? Not Janis, who would be a misfit there. Rather, in steps versatile rookie WR Ty Montgomery who is, like Cobb, an ideal Y/Z (maybe even better than Cobb in the long run). Janis ends up being the odd man out, backing up Adams at X. Adams stands to benefit far-and-away the greatest. Cobb's looks will probably increase, but not by that much. The other huge beneficiary is Montgomery, who goes from backup to starter in three-wide-receiver sets. In the Packers' highly potent offense, Montgomery is probably a WR4/5 with low-end WR3 upside and could be a real diamond in the rough in best-ball formats. Janis may come in in sets where the Z is going to be out wide, but in a west coast offense that is not where the Z typically lines up. Usually it is at mid-distance or in tight, where Montgomery thrives.  Indeed, when Montgomery comes in, he probably comes in technically as the Y with Cobb being the move Z.
« Last Edit: Aug 25th, 2015, 4:14am by Stegfucius » Logged
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