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   Very Interesting FFL Draft Position Trade Puzzle
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Very Interesting FFL Draft Position Trade Puzzle
« on: Aug 29th, 2002, 8:57am »
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Dave's e-mail:
I have the #1 pick in a league where it is scoring only, and passing TDs are worth 6 points (not 4 - so it's conceivable to pick Warner over Faulk).  I have been offered the following trade with the guy picking 10th (in a 12 team league): Swap picks in the 1st round, and then also swap in every subsequent round where his pick is better.  As in, I currently pick 1st in odd rounds, last in even rounds. I would pick 10th in the first round, then 1st in odd rounds, and 3rd in even rounds
In other words, my picks go from 1, 24, 25, 48, 49, 72, 73, 96, 97, 120, 121, 144, 145  
to 10, 15, 25, 39, 49, 63, 73, 87, 97, 111, 121, 135, 145.
The analysis is interesting. Is the drop-off in the 1st round, where it counts the most, more than offset by the fact that the average pick up over the course of the draft is 3.5 spots (or an average of 3 spots pick-up over the first 7 rounds)? Theoretically, one has just as much chance of winning FFL with the 10th pick as with the 1st pick. If that is the case, the trade should be done, since I'd be moving up overall in the draft. Then again, Faulk is Faulk (and Warner is Warner).  
Thanks in advance for your opinion - I think this is an intriguing strategical problem.

StegRock's take:
Bottom line, you go from 1 to 10 and 24, 48, 72, 96, 120 and 144 respectively to 15, 39, 63, 87, 111 and 135.  There is no way you move back 9 spots in round 1 to move up 9 spots in rounds 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12.  I am guessing he currently has picks 10, 15, 27, 39, 51, 63, 75, 87, 99, 111, 123, 135 and 147.  He would go to 1, 24, 27, 48, 51, 72, 75, 96, 99, 120, 123, 144 and 147.  The bottom line, the way he sees things, after the first three rounds, he stays about even, but instead of getting Moss, Harrison, Manning or Dillon with his first pick, he is going to get FAULK.  He can still perhaps get a Joe Horn or Rod Smith with 24 and he remains at 27.  The difference between what he would have gotten at 15 and what he can still get at 24 does NOT EVEN COME CLOSE TO EQUALING FAULK!  As for the rest of the picks, !  Whatever!  He evens up (with you) every two rounds, anyway.  The jump to Faulk should not even be able to be considered in the same thought as "moving back 9 lousy picks in the second round (and beyond)."  Do NOT do the deal!
« Last Edit: Sep 4th, 2002, 7:36pm by Stegfucius » Logged
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Re: Very Interesting FFL Draft Position Trade Puzz
« Reply #1 on: Aug 31st, 2002, 4:53pm »
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I concur with Stegrock......VERY bad trade.  

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Re: Very Interesting FFL Draft Position Trade Puzz
« Reply #2 on: Sep 4th, 2002, 6:43pm »
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I too would not have done that trade. Clearly in the scoring system in your league you have to take Warner. He will again have 45+ TDs. Faulk and Gannon combined may have more combined, but you are looking at total TDs to win on a weekly basis. This type of scoring also makes guys like Alstott, Wheatley and Bubba even more valuable.  Yardage doesn't matter i'm guesssing based on what you said. Therfore you must go for TD guys: Tim Brown, RWms, Owens, Moss, Chad Lewis, Stacey Mack, Duckett. All guys that will get the plunges.  
Good luck.

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