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the Gridiron >> between the 20's >> 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
(Message started by: StegRock on Apr 29th, 2015, 2:02am)

Title: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by StegRock on Apr 29th, 2015, 2:02am
Wow...  It has been a few years since I posted any NFL Draft discussion.  Time does fly...  That said, those of you who know me know that I do not think rookies are the key to fantasy success (even in a deep-keeper format like the GBRFL (http://www.fantasyfootballer.com/gbrfl)) and, therefore, do not put much stock in the NFL Draft vis-a-vis fantasy football (save for dynasty leagues, of course).

So, I am going to go at this in a different way,... in a way that is necessarily fantasy-relevant.  I personally find myself very excited about this year's NFL Draft,... well,... actually the word would be apprehensive.  I definitely have a handful of players on my GBRFL team that could foreseeably be negatively affected by how their respective NFL team drafts.  Here are my concerns in the order of the degree to which I think they are threatened...

1) Chris Ivory
2) Tim Tebow (who, even as the "#3", is protectable unless Mariota is drafted)
3) Brian Quick
4) Charles Johnson
5) LeGarrette Blount

[smiley=pray.gif]

Feel free to discuss and/or share your fantasy team's NFL Draft concerns...

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by DirkDiggler on Apr 29th, 2015, 3:39pm
interesting approach to looking at the draft! I would have to say my biggest concerns are:

1) Frank Gore - right now, Herron is Gores only competition. Afraid if they will bring in another RB in the 2nd or 3rd round, Gore will lose even more carries.

2) Nick Foles - If the Rams draft a top 5 QB, I if think Foles struggles the first few weeks there is a chance they will be calling for a QB switch. If Foles struggles without a top 5 QB threatening his position, there is not much competition.

3) Mark Sanchez- If Bradford stays in Philly, I truly believe Sanchez will be starting sooner rather than later. If the Eagles get Mariota or even Hundley (who I actually think would be a good fit for the Eagles), then he probably will be nothing but a back up all season.

4)Reggie Bush- He already has competition with Hyde and Hunter. If they draft another RB, I think his role will diminish even more.

5)  Trent Richardson - I know that Latavius Murray is the #1 RB here, but I think Richardson will get the goal line carries and is the #2 in Oakland.   Being #2 in Oakland is not bad because they run it even with players struggling.  How many years did we watch McFadden, MJD, Marcel Reece, Rashad Jennings, Taiwan Jones, Michael Bush, Justin Fargas, etc......

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by StegRock on Apr 29th, 2015, 6:53pm

on 04/29/15 at 15:39:24, DirkDiggler wrote:
Hundley (who I actually think would be a good fit for the Eagles)


I agree with that statement 100%.  I, we, just hope Kelly does not.  I think a lot of the Mariota-to-Eagles hype was just that, smokescreen.  While not impossible and, I am sure, quite desirable to both Kelly and Mariota, it was and still is highly unlikely.  Hundley, however, will be there when the Eagles' current first-round pick, #20, rolls around, and he might even be there for their second-rounder.  So, we, you and I, shall see.  [smiley=fingerscrossed.gif]... for it not to happen, but admittedly [smiley=nervous.gif]... about it.

That said, I disagree with you about Sanchez.  I do not think he is a good fit and has proven to be nothing more than a backup in Kelly's system, at least.  Setting aside Hundley (which we both hope really is what happens), if Bradford, who I think is a bad fit for Kelly's system, too, falters, they have Sanchez as security, but I believe hope to turn to an allegedly improved Tebow, who, in terms of style of play at least, is a pretty good fit for Kelly's system (notwithstanding what Kelly has said to the contrary in the past).  We, again, shall see...

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by StegRock on Apr 30th, 2015, 2:15am

on 04/29/15 at 02:02:09, StegRock wrote:
Here are my concerns in the order of the degree to which I think they are threatened...

1) Chris Ivory
2) Tim Tebow (who, even as the "#3", is protectable unless Mariota is drafted)
3) Brian Quick
4) Charles Johnson
5) LeGarrette Blount

[smiley=pray.gif]


I am going to add to my list...

6) Allen Robinson

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by DB on Apr 30th, 2015, 2:11pm
I too am pumped for the draft.  My perspective is different that you guys for some players.  For example, I have Geno Smith on my roster but would be happy if the Jets took a QB early so as to make my decision to cut him very easy.  

It is also worth noting a big difference in the drafting of QBs vs. other positions.  For example, if a team takes RB in any of the first 4 rounds, he could be a threat to players like Ivory, Blount, Bush whereas a QB taken after the 2nd round probably does not pose much of a threat to any existing starter.

I think you guys are dreaming as far as two of the guys you mentioned, Tebow and Richardson.  The odds of those guys doing anything fantasy-wise are slim.  I will definitely root for Tebow but would be shocked if he even made a team at this point.

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by StegRock on Apr 30th, 2015, 7:34pm

on 04/30/15 at 14:11:30, DB wrote:
I will definitely root for Tebow but would be shocked if he even made a team at this point.


I just want to get that in the record!

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by StegRock on May 1st, 2015, 3:27am
Well, made it unscathed through Day 1!

Threats persist, though, into Day 2... [smiley=pray.gif]

T-Rave with Tre Mason took an unexpected hit.

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by DirkDiggler on May 1st, 2015, 3:07pm

on 05/01/15 at 03:27:50, StegRock wrote:
Well, made it unscathed through Day 1!

Threats persist, though, into Day 2... [smiley=pray.gif]

T-Rave with Tre Mason took an unexpected hit.


I expect my players to get crushed tonight or in round 3.  Would not be surprised to see the Colts take the RB out of Indiana tonight.

I definitely agree Tre Mason is the one who got crushed. Ultimately, in a weird way, that may have helped me as Zac Stacey may get cut or traded. He showed flashes when given a chance, but then didn't get another chance once Tre Mason started playing well.

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by StegRock on May 1st, 2015, 3:59pm

on 05/01/15 at 15:07:59, DirkDiggler wrote:
I expect my players to get crushed tonight or in round 3. Would not be surprised to see the Colts take the RB out of Indiana tonight.


I disagree with you here, but in ways you should find comforting. I do not see much, if anything, from here on out that will amount to a "crushing" blow (to any extant fantasy situation). Hundley to Philly could be a significant hit (to Bradford, Tebow and Sanchez owners), but I really do not see that happening. I see them now settling into Tebow, Bradford and company. ;) As to your concern about Gore, even if the Colts take one of these backs left, I do not see any of them eating into Gore's carries much this season.


Quote:
I definitely agree Tre Mason is the one who got crushed. Ultimately, in a weird way, that may have helped me as Zac Stacey may get cut or traded. He showed flashes when given a chance, but then didn't get another chance once Tre Mason started playing well.


Yup. I think that could very well work out well for you. A trade to, say, Dallas may not materialize until after the draft is over, however. We shall see...

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by StegRock on May 1st, 2015, 8:00pm
He will come back from it.  He always does.  However, you know which GBRFLer is taking taking some direct hits in this draft?  With the selections of Mariota, Yelden and Devin Smith,... Danny!  He basically loses two, what he probably hoped would be, developmental players at QB and RB in Mett and D. Rob, and an aging Marshall loses some looks (even though Smith is probably more of a direct threat to Decker).

[offtopic]Merited or not, the boos of Goodell are getting old and are pretty low-class.  Enough already!  [/offtopic]

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by DirkDiggler on May 1st, 2015, 10:45pm
I think the Brown are giving the Raiders a run for the crappiest franchise. Why they hell would they waste a 3rd round pick on a running back? That makes zero sense with all the other needs they have. West and Crowell could of carried them through see the season. Unbelievable.....They say Duke Johnson is not an every day back, but he certainly makes a messy two headed monster into more of a mess

Sorry Steg, definitely a hit to your team there.

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by DirkDiggler on May 1st, 2015, 10:49pm
Per my thread above, apparently Zac Stacey is already asking to be traded. My guesses (in order) of potential landing spots include the Ravens, Colts, or Patriots.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25170028/report-rams-rb-zac-stacy-requests-trade-after-todd-gurley-pick

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by StegRock on May 2nd, 2015, 12:40am

on 05/01/15 at 22:45:04, DirkDiggler wrote:
I think the Brown are giving the Raiders a run for the crappiest franchise. Why they hell would they waste a 3rd round pick on a running back? That makes zero sense with all the other needs they have. West and Crowell could of carried them through see the season. Unbelievable.....They say Duke Johnson is not an every day back, but he certainly makes a messy two headed monster into more of a mess

Sorry Steg, definitely a hit to your team there.


Eh... Not too much of a hit. Johnson, who is small, is no threat to Crowell, assuming he stays clean and fulfills his vast potential. At the proverbial end of the day, it probably just makes it easier for me to cut West, who, right now, is on my chopping block. On the other hand, I also think the same logic that applies to Stacy applies to, in particular, West. West's situation may not be quite as dire as Stacy's, but it is surely similar even if he is not yet demanding a trade.

Bottom line, not one of the guys, hits to whom seemed very possible and would have been very costly and thus about whom I was most concerned, took ANY hits! [smiley=woohoo.gif]

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by DB on May 2nd, 2015, 12:33pm
Yeah Cleveland is a tough team to figure out. But i'm not so sure the Duke Johnson pick was bad. They was the Browns' 4th pick in the draft and they already took 2 lineman a CB. I'm sure they would have taken a QB with any of their picks if they liked who was on the board.

Speaking of QBs, I am surprised the Rams took one in the 3rd.

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by StegRock on May 2nd, 2015, 5:43pm

on 05/01/15 at 15:07:59, DirkDiggler wrote:
Ultimately, in a weird way, that may have helped me as Zac Stacey may get cut or traded. He showed flashes when given a chance, but then didn't get another chance once Tre Mason started playing well.


How funny, Steve?  We have both been talking about taking hits or not, largely avoiding hits, and then we both go and take a hit in one fell swoop with the Stacy trade to the Jets.  That said, I think Stacy has much less chance of succeeding in New York than the incumbent Ivory.  (Frankly, I do not understand what the Jets are doing here, accumulating now three of the same type tailbacks. ?.?.? But, I digress.)  On the other hand, the whole development for you was an unexpected potential gift, anyway.  It was not so much a hit for you as a returned gift.  Point being, I do not think it amounts to much of a hit for either of us, but it is funny that it happened to us both in one fell swoop. ::)

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by DirkDiggler on May 2nd, 2015, 5:47pm

on 05/02/15 at 17:43:22, StegRock wrote:
How funny, Steve? We have both been talking about taking hits or not, largely avoiding hits, and then we both go and take a hit in one fell swoop with the Stacy trade to the Jets. That said, I think Stacy has much less chance of succeeding in New York than the incumbent Ivory. (Frankly, I do not understand what the Jets are doing here, accumulating now three of the same type tailbacks. ?.?.? But, I digress.) On the other hand, the whole development for you was an unexpected potential gift, anyway. It was not so much a hit for you as a returned gift. Point being, I do not think it amounts to much of a hit for either of us, but it is funny that it happened to us both in one fell swoop. ::)


Yes, it was very ironic.   I ultimately don't have too much faith regarding Zac Stacey, but like you mentioned, it is a slight positive and gives me SOME hope.  With that being said, in the end  I expect he will be available for some team to draft with their 8th round pick in the 2015 GBRL Draft.  

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by StegRock on May 2nd, 2015, 9:40pm

on 05/02/15 at 17:43:22, StegRock wrote:
Frankly, I do not understand what the Jets are doing here, accumulating now three of the same type tailbacks.


Scratch that, and make it four.  I forgot about Powell!  That said, if all goes as we would expect and there ends up being an odd man out, I think it would be him.

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by Travistotle on May 3rd, 2015, 4:06pm

on 05/01/15 at 03:27:50, StegRock wrote:
Well, made it unscathed through Day 1!

Threats persist, though, into Day 2... [smiley=pray.gif]

T-Rave with Tre Mason took an unexpected hit.


I guess I've stopped being surprised by unexpected bad things happening in fantasy football. When you play golf and poker, pessimism becomes second nature.  Things can always get worse, and often do.

But, hey, silver lining -- I can take Gurley with the first overall pick and put a stranglehold on the Rams' backfield. Whoops, I forgot, things can always get worse -- probably I'll miss out on the 1st and 2nd overall picks (despite finishing dead last last year) and be unable to waste a pick by handcuffing in the 1st round land Gurley at all.

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by StegRock on May 9th, 2015, 11:10pm
Some closing thoughts on the 2015 NFL Draft...

1) I am strongly rooting for Tim Tebow to succeed in Philly and, at the same time, know that, if Philly could have worked out a trade with Tennessee so as to get Marcus Mariota, it would have killed Tebow's chances of making it in Philly.  All grooming efforts would have been spent on grooming Mariota.  Tebow would have been stuck in the backseat yet again and ultimately probably cut so as to eliminate any distractions and make things as comfy-cozy for Mariota as possible.  THAT SAID, I must admit that, if the Eagles offered the Titans the kind of treasure trove of players and draft picks that many were reporting, providing the deal included Sam Bradford, who, like Zach Mettenberger, is more of a Ken Whisenhunt-type quarterback, the Titans would have been INSANE not to have taken it.  So, maybe that is proof in the proverbial pudding that such an offer was never made.  But, if it was, the Titans played it STU-PID!!!

2) Against conventional "wisdom", Dallas is perhaps playing it very smart with respect to their tailback situation.  After Gurley, Gordon and Yelden, the talent tailed off in the draft.  They know there remains a glut at the position.  Why overpay?  Indeed, why rush?  They have a great offensive line.  An affordable trade will likely be able to be made by the end of the preseason, or there is a good chance that there will be some good clippings.  Here are some current healthy #1's or #2's that could end up finding themselves in Dallas when it is all said and done, either by way of a trade or after being cut: Chris Ivory, Justin Forsett, Terrence West, Toby Gerhart, Shonn Greene, Montee Ball, Joique Bell, James Starks, Doug Martin and Tre Mason.  Bottom line, I do not think Dallas's 2015 starting workhorse tailback is currently on their roster.

3) Two things with the Browns...  The drafting of Duke Johnson is indubitably terrible news for Terrence West, barring an injury to Isaiah Crowell.  As for quarterback, perhaps Johnny Manziel is getting his act together, and they believe in him, at least enough to give him one more shot without bringing in a constant threat and distraction.  There could be unconventional wisdom in that move.

Title: Re: 2015 NFL Draft: A Different Take
Post by StegRock on May 12th, 2015, 5:55am

on 05/09/15 at 23:10:32, StegRock wrote:
Some closing thoughts on the 2015 NFL Draft...

...

2) Against conventional "wisdom", Dallas is perhaps playing it very smart with respect to their tailback situation. After Gurley, Gordon and Yelden, the talent tailed off in the draft. They know there remains a glut at the position. Why overpay? Indeed, why rush? They have a great offensive line. An affordable trade will likely be able to be made by the end of the preseason, or there is a good chance that there will be some good clippings. Here are some current healthy #1's or #2's that could end up finding themselves in Dallas when it is all said and done, either by way of a trade or after being cut: Chris Ivory, Justin Forsett, Terrence West, Toby Gerhart, Shonn Greene, Montee Ball, Joique Bell, James Starks, Doug Martin and Tre Mason. Bottom line, I do not think Dallas's 2015 starting workhorse tailback is currently on their roster.

...


Upon further review, the two of that list that are particularly intriguing, I think, are Chris Ivory and Terrance West.  It seems like they may both be on the outs with their respective teams.  Ivory reminds me of a more talented and beast-modely Marion Barber, and West, though bigger in stature, to me runs very similar in style to Emmitt Smith.



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