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Houston Texans - Week Four Analysis
« on: Sep 27th, 2003, 12:19am » |
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Well, the jury's in and it's been determined that the Texans fold more in the second half than a paranoid draw poker player.
This week, the Texans go up against the struggling Jacksonville Jaguars, who will probably be forced to start the highly touted Byron Leftwich this week. This bodes well for the struggling Texans, who have gone against two highly superior teams in Kansas City and New Orleans the past couple of weeks. The Jaguars boast a great rush defense but a terribly vulnerable passing defense. Add to that a rookie QB that is bound to turn it over...and it may be a good week for the Texans offense fantasy-wise.
QB
David Carr sat for the first time last week, as the Texans were getting routed 42-14. Carr also showed that he isn't invulnerable - a couple of hard sacks laid him out and made him a little gimpy last week. Look for Carr to come back with a vengenance this week with an eager WR corp - I expect a very solid game from the Texans' franchise QB this week.
David Carr - 270 yards passing (really?!?!), 2 TDs, 1 INT; 0 yards rushing, 0 TDs
RB
Stacey Mack has shown a chink in his armor, and he'll be out to prove that he's the starting back in Houston. Everyone has focused on his 3.0 YPC, especially Mack, and he was quoted this week saying that "a YPC like that won't cut it." He's got a serious bug up his arse right now, but unfortunately he's going against a very stiff Jacksonville rush D. Domanick Davis should return this week, and it will be interesting to see if Capers allows Hollings to redeem himself after last week's fumble. All of the talk has been Hollings this week on the message boards, but how that pans out is yet to be seen. I am sticking to my prediction that Mack will NOT be supplanted, and the most time that Hollings/Davis will see in 2003 is a maximum of 40% of the carries, combined, in any given game.
Stacey Mack - 60 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 0 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Domanick Davis - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 20 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Tony Hollings - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 10 yards receiving, 0 TDs
WR
This is the group that should have a field day against the much-maligned Jacksonville secondary. Andre Johnson stepped up last week and everyone is asking "is he the real deal?" The answer is a resounding "yes". Johnson should be an automatic start as a #3 WR this week, but I'd still shy away from Gaffney and Bradford because you don't know who's going to get the long ball from week to week. Billy Miller, I feel for ya man.
Andre Johnson - 7 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD
Jabar Gaffney - 5 catches, 50 yards, 0 TD
Corey Bradford - 3 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD
Billy Miller (TE) - 2 catches, 20 yards, 0 TD
K/DEF
Kris Brown is a borderline starter this week, given that the Texans should make decent penetrations but may not get the TD because of the stiff Jacksonville rush D.
The Texans are banged up on defense, but should get some decent INTs against the rookie QB. I wouldn't start them unless you get a premium for turnovers...I wouldn't count on many sacks or a low scoring affair this week.
Overall, I predict a rare Texans victory this week. I'm going to the game, so maybe I'm rooting with my heart over my head...
Texans 23, Jaguars 20
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| « Last Edit: Oct 1st, 2003, 8:56pm by Stegfucius » |
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Re: Houston Texans - Week Four Analysis
« Reply #2 on: Oct 3rd, 2003, 10:35am » |
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on Sep 27th, 2003, 12:19am, Jetdoc wrote:| David Carr - 270 yards passing (really?!?!), 2 TDs, 1 INT; 0 yards rushing, 0 TDs |
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David Carr - 234 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT, 18 yards rushing, 1 TD
Came up a little short on Carr's passing yardage, but he more than made up for that with his HUGE rushing TD at the end of the game. Overall, I nailed his fantasy production this week. Carr is looking more and more comfortable in the pocket, and is making some Texans actual fantasy options each week.
on Sep 27th, 2003, 12:19am, Jetdoc wrote:Stacey Mack - 60 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 0 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Domanick Davis - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 20 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Tony Hollings - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 10 yards receiving, 0 TDs |
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Stacey Mack - 39 yards rushing, 1 TD; 0 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Domanick Davis - 53 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 38 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Tony Hollings - inactive
Well, Mack again had a subpar day, with a fumble and an INT thrown, but from a fantasy standpoint wasn't bad with his TD in the first quarter. Hollings was inactive as Capers sticks to his philosophy of only having three tailbacks active for any given game. Wells contributes more on special teams, and Davis is the clear change of pace back right now. Hollings may see some opportunities later in the season, but for right now isn't worth anything until 2004. Davis is really surprising, as the Texans drafted him solely as a special teams contributor. Capers is a conservative offensive coach, however, and I expect that Mack will continue to see the majority of the touches. If Capers does a 180 and exploits his speed at WR by going to a pass-oriented offense, Davis will be the main man. I don't see that happening in the immediate future, but the Texans HAVE shown success while converting to this type of offense. I'll keep y'all updated.
on Sep 27th, 2003, 12:19am, Jetdoc wrote:Andre Johnson - 7 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD
Jabar Gaffney - 5 catches, 50 yards, 0 TD
Corey Bradford - 3 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD
Billy Miller (TE) - 2 catches, 20 yards, 0 TD |
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Andre Johnson - 8 catches, 97 yards, 0 TDs
Jabar Gaffney - 3 catches, 38 yards, 1 TD
Corey Bradford - 1 catch, 9 yards, 0 TDs
Billy Miller (TE) - 2 catches, 13 yards, 0 TDs
Well, Andre Johnson is a bonafide starting WR in almost every FF league. If you can get him off of waivers or trade for him giving up suspect WR talent (i.e. like Troy Brown or Marty Booker), do so. Gaffney saw a deep crossing route for his score...otherwise, Johnson was the focus of the Texans' air attack. Bradford dropped a couple of easy balls...that worries me that Bradford is quickly being phased out of the offense. Luckily, the Texans are going with a lot of 3 wideout sets, so he's getting the deep opportunities still. Billy Miller split time with Jabari Holloway this week, so Miller is out as a fantasy option for the rest of 2003. Drop him while you can.
on Sep 27th, 2003, 12:19am, Jetdoc wrote:
Texans 24, Jaguars 20
Damn, I came REALLY close on this one...
No Week Five analysis, as the Texans are on bye.
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