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Houston Texans - Week Seven Analysis
« on: Oct 16th, 2003, 2:34pm » |
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Wow...after a lowly year and a half in the NFL, the Texans are starting to become the talk of the fantasy circuit. Hopefully I answer most of your questions from last week's thread in this edition...
The Texans are going to do a terrible thing to me this week by going up against my beloved New York Jets in Houston. The Jets had been reeling by going 0-4 to start the season with Testeviagra at the helm, but then pull off a stunning whupping of the Bills last week. The Texans are on a win one week, get blown out the next schedule, so this should be a good matchup for both teams.
QB
David Carr has found his rythym, primarily because the Texans have been down by a good margin in 4 of their five games. This comfort has increased his fantasy productivity to actual *gasp* starter levels on some fantasy teams. This is due to to Capers being more quick to abandon the normal TE set and go to his three WR set, where all of his offensive talent relies. This week, however, I expect to see a different story, as the Texans go up against a defense that is 30th against the rush, but 1st against the pass in the NFL. I expect a relatively heavy dose of the rushing attack in Houston, and a ball control offense by the Jets that will limit Carr's opportunities. Don't start Carr THIS week.
David Carr - 190 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT; 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs
RB
The talk of the town in Houston is a cajun by the name of Domanick. Davis has shined in a Houston offense that has switched to run-n-shoot mode, which compliments his skills. Davis and Mack are definitely in a RBBC right now, and the back that gets most of the carries will depend on whether Houston goes to a 3 WR set or a TE set for most of the game. As stated above, the Jets are HORRIBLE against the run, so I expect Capers will move more towards a TE philosophy this week. That means that Stacey Mack SHOULD get the ball more than Davis, as Davis isn't a true pound-it-out back that is the Jets' achilles heel. For example, the Jets have allowed 120+ yards to Ricky Williams and Troy Hambrick (pound-it-out backs), but less than 80 yards to Kevin Faulk and Travis Henry (quicker backs). Mack is the better bet this week, but it's scary to play either since they are both RBBC, especially with Davis techinically getting "the start".
Stacey Mack - 70 yards rushing, 1 TD; 0 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Domanick Davis - 50 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Tony Hollings - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 10 yards receiving, 0 TDs
WR
The Houston trio is really starting to stretch their wings, with alternate WR's getting off each week under Capers' tendency to put them all on the field at the same time. Unfortunately, due to inconsistency, I'd be scared to death to start either Gaffney or Bradford from week to week. Neither is a good start this week based on what I've described above in the Jets' weaknesses. Andre Johnson, on the other hand, should thrive as the Jets really don't have a corner that can match up with his size.
Andre Johnson - 5 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD
Jabar Gaffney - 3 catches, 30 yards, 0 TDs
Corey Bradford - 2 catches, 20 yards, 0 TDs
Billy Miller (TE) - 4 catches, 30 yards, 0 TDs
Overall, I expect a relatively low scoring game dominated by time of possession, with my J-E-T-S squeaking by in the end...
New York Jets 23, Houston 20
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| « Last Edit: Oct 16th, 2003, 8:42pm by Stegfucius » |
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Re: Houston Texans - Week Seven Analysis
« Reply #2 on: Oct 21st, 2003, 3:07pm » |
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on Oct 16th, 2003, 2:34pm, Jetdoc wrote:| David Carr - 190 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT; 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs |
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David Carr - 170 yards passing, 0 TDs, 0 INT; 16 yards rushing, 0 TDs
Against the stellar Jets pass defense, Carr performed almost exactly as I expected. This is just a temporary blip, however, as Carr will probably see his stats rise back to Week 6 levels over the next few weeks as the Texans have to come from behind against Indy and face weak Carolina and Cincy secondaries.
on Oct 16th, 2003, 2:34pm, Jetdoc wrote:Stacey Mack - 70 yards rushing, 1 TD; 0 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Domanick Davis - 50 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 30 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Tony Hollings - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 10 yards receiving, 0 TDs |
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Stacey Mack - 13 yards rushing, 2 TDs
Domanick Davis - 129 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 70 yards receiving, 0 TDs
Tony Hollings - 1 yard rushing, 0 TDs
RBBC? In Houston? I don't THINK so...
Capers responded with a resounding NO this weekend, pounding the hell out of the Jets' defense with his new favorite toy - Domanick Davis. Mack has officially returned to being a Fred Taylor b!tch, so his fantasy days are almost over. Tony Hollings didn't see any action, either, which makes Davis a true RB that is worthy of most teams' #3 RB. Mack performed fantasy-wise exactly as I expected this week (13 fantasy points), but Davis significantly exceeded my expectations. Sorry to all of you who kept him on your bench...he was the first Texans' RB to go over 100 yards in the Texans' entire existence.
on Oct 16th, 2003, 2:34pm, Jetdoc wrote:Andre Johnson - 5 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD
Jabar Gaffney - 3 catches, 30 yards, 0 TDs
Corey Bradford - 2 catches, 20 yards, 0 TDs
Billy Miller (TE) - 4 catches, 30 yards, 0 TDs
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Andre Johnson - 3 catches, 71 yards, 0 TDs
Jabar Gaffney - 1 catch, 8 yards, 0 TDs
Corey Bradford - 0 catches, 0 yards
Billy Miller (TE) - 1 catch, 14 yards
The Texans' air attack was, as expected, grounded this week, with Johnson being the only recipient (other than Domanick Davis) of any significant yards. Don't worry - this was a one-week blip that will correct itself soon enough over the next few weeks.
on Oct 16th, 2003, 2:34pm, Jetdoc wrote:| New York Jets 23, Houston 20 |
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Man, I'm getting really, really close on the scores...
J-E-T-S 19, Houston 14.
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