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Texans vs. Cowboys Preseason Game
« on: Aug 15th, 2004, 1:38am » |
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It's been a long time guys, and I thought I'd make a special "guest" appearance to give you an update on my local team - the Houston Texans.
Just got back from the Texans/Cowboys preseason game and wanted to share some notes from the game with you, along with some insight I've had from attending what training camps I have been able to...
QB
David Carr is looking VERY sharp in practice, and showed it again with solid decision making and laser passes in the preseason game tonight. He continues to favor Andre Johnson and Jabar Gaffney over Corey Bradford, and continues to use his safety valve in Billy Miller, although less than in 2002. I expect that Carr will be very efficient but not stellar in 2004, putting up solid backup QB numbers but won't knock the socks off of anyone. He has tons of upside, obviously, especially with the Texans' reluctance to put too heavy of a workload on Domanick Davis (see below). Overall, a solid performance in the quarter plus of action he saw tonight.
RB
Domanick Davis missed tonight's preseason game and has missed a majority of training camp with what the local media has termed "minor" injuries. The coaches don't seem too concerned about it, so I wouldn't read a lot into these "tweaks" as a sign that he might have be injury prone.
That being said, however...the coaches seem to be treating Davis like a precious commodity. That seems to contradict earlier statements by Capers and Davis that they planned to run 60% of all offensive plays through the back and that Davis was targeting 2,000 yards for 2004. I would temper many of the wild expectations for this "breakout" back for 2004 - he'll be a very solid #2 RB but is by no means worth a #1 slot at this point.
Tony Hollings is a name that has been on most fantasy owners' tounges since his limited stellar college career, his high draft pick (2nd rounder in 2003) and the fact that the Texans' offensive coordinator came out and said that he'd like to get Hollings 10-15 carries per game. Hollings has shown flashes of brilliance, with excellent acceleration and the ability to get outside, two traits that Davis lacks. Hollings surprisingly is a better flat receiver than Davis is.
Unfortunately, after tonight's game Hollings will be in Capers' doghouse AGAIN, as he was in 2003, for his main problem - fumbling. He had three fumbles in tonight's game, one of which was at the end of a long, exciting run and the other was late in the game against the 3rd and 4th stringers of the Cowboys. When Hollings went to the sidelines, Capers wouldn't even look at him. That's not a good sign. Hollings better have a couple of turnover-free preseason games in the near future, otherwise, his butt will be firmly entrenched on the sidelines and Palmer's dream of a RBBC in Houston will quickly evaporate.
By the way - both RB's seem to be thriving in the zone-blocking scheme that Capers has installed in Houston, and HUGE holes seem to be developing as a result. The Texans' ground game is something you should definitely keep an eye on this year...could become another Denver in a hurry with the improvements they've made to the offensive line as well.
WR
Andre Johnson continues to shine in his work ethic and great hands. He has formed a special bond with Carr (not THAT kind) and seems to be Carr's first and only target on the field during critical situations. If Davis can continue the rushing onslaught, Johnson should be set up for a breakout season, ala Chad Johnson in 2003. I would be very comfortable having him as a #2 WR in any league this year.
Corey Bradford continues to be the deep threat for the Texans, and they've made it known publically that they want to get him the rock as much as possible to keep heat off of Johnson and Davis. I just don't see it - he has the speed and the knack to get open, but seems to be more of a diversion than a real option for Carr. I wouldn't place any value on Bradford this year other than in VERY deep leagues.
Jabar Gaffney is the unheralded Texan WR and is quickly becoming Carr's underneath guy to target. Gaffney is entering his third year and could supplant Bradford as the "other" Texan WR that might make a splash in 2004. He's my favorite deep sleeper that could pay decent dividends as Carr develops his comfort with him. A note - in training camp and before the Texans' preseason game, Carr hangs out with Gaffney almost exclusively and is his favorite casual "catch" partner when not running drills. Some insider info from a local.
Derrick Armstrong is wowing everyone in training camp with his acrobatic moves and his tall, lanky frame. However, he's not going to do ANYTHING fantasywise in the near future with Gaffney and Bradford there. Bradford is a free agent in 2005, so Armstrong may get to shine if he leaves Houston.
TE
Billy Miller will be in a TEBC this year, but still may become a valid fantasy option. Miller had a horrible year in 2003 compared to his 2002 outing, mainly because of the addition of Johnson as a receiving threat. However, the one reason you won't hear for his poor performance in 2003 is that Capers told him after the 2002 season to bulk up, because they wanted him to become a blocking TE. That was a terrible mistake - it took all of Miller's speed and grace (his two assets) away from him and made him awkward out on the field. Miller is back to his 2002 weight and his role has been redefined as a pass-catching TE. I expect his numbers to rebound in 2004, but not to the 2002 levels.
Mark Bruener will be the blocking TE and will split time with Miller, probably 50/50 if I had to guess. Bruener isn't worth anything fantasy wise, so the only reason to pay attention to him is to see how he affects Miller's numbers.
K
Kris Brown is good, but won't be worth a spot unless the Texans' offense drastically improves their scoring.
DEF
Many, many improvements on defense this offseason with the signing of Robaire Smith at DE and the drafting of Dunta Robinson at CB and Jason Babin at OLB. I would expect this subpar 2003 defense to return to the middle of the pack in 2004...but not one worth owning except for matchup purposes. Speaking of matchups - I HIGHLY recommend picking up the Texans defense for Week 1 at home against the inept San Diego Chargers.
I can post Cowpoke notes at a later time...I'm going to bed.
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| « Last Edit: Aug 15th, 2004, 3:01am by Stegfucius » |
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# 29
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Re: Texans vs. Cowboys Preseason Game
« Reply #4 on: Aug 17th, 2004, 3:55pm » |
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Thanks for the news, Jetdoc, however, I don't need you out there trumpeting my sleeper pick for 2004, Jabar Gaffney. I've been trying to keep hush-hush about him (as much as I can), but I guess the cat is out of the bag. This guy came into the league with a LOT of potential and upside, but came into an expansion offense that didn't do much. Now, with AJ garnering most of the attention, Gaff could find himself with a lot of nice matchups.
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Philosopher King
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Re: Texans vs. Cowboys Preseason Game
« Reply #5 on: Aug 17th, 2004, 4:02pm » |
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on Aug 17th, 2004, 3:55pm, Philly wrote:| Now, with AJ garnering most of the attention, Gaff could find himself with a lot of nice matchups. |
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Yea, but not anything much more than to the tune of a solid backup #4 fantasy receiver, which come at a dime a dozen. I mean, as per Jet's post, he is the Texans #3 at this point.
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Re: Texans vs. Cowboys Preseason Game
« Reply #6 on: Aug 17th, 2004, 4:08pm » |
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on Aug 17th, 2004, 4:02pm, StegRock wrote:
Yea, but not anything much more than to the tune of a solid backup #4 fantasy receiver, which come at a dime a dozen. I mean, as per Jet's post, he is the Texans #3 at this point. |
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He's a sleeper who I think will break out this year. Everything is in place for him to have a solid season. Gaffney will be the Texans #2 option this season, not Bradford. The Texans offense is looking a lot like the Bills offense of a couple years ago. I'm not saying that Gaffney will have the same numbers as Peerless Price did in 2002, but I think he can get close. He'll be a solid #3 FF WR at the very least.
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Re: Texans vs. Cowboys Preseason Game
« Reply #9 on: Aug 18th, 2004, 9:38am » |
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on Aug 17th, 2004, 11:46pm, Jetdoc wrote:| Steg's right...I wouldn't target him as your #3 WR in any league. |
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You think he can put up 1000 yards, but still wouldn't target him as a #3 FF WR??? You do realize that there were only 14 WRs in the NFL in 2003 that reached 1000 yards, but you're saying he isn't worth having as the 36th best FF WR? In 2003, Andre Johnson finished with 976 yards and 4 TDs (similar to what you predict for Gaffney this year), and he ranked 23rd in WR FF scoring (1pt/10yds, 6pt/TD) overall (which is a low #2 FF WR in a 12-team league). I'm not sure I understand your argument, or are you just sandbagging his value? 
Quote:| However, Gaffney can be had, at the EARLIEST, in the 15th round of any league. I am predicting that he'll put up very similar numbers to the Deion Branchs and Keyshawn Johnsons of the world that will be taken 6-7 rounds before that. That's solid value very late in the draft. |
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Both drafts I've done this year had Jabar Gaffney going undrafted in 16 rounds.
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Philosopher King
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I love ''the Gridiron''!
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Re: Texans vs. Cowboys Preseason Game
« Reply #11 on: Aug 18th, 2004, 3:15pm » |
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on Aug 18th, 2004, 9:38am, Philly wrote:| You think he can put up 1000 yards, but still wouldn't target him as a #3 FF WR??? |
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I must admit I thought the same thing last night, but was going to let it go. There definitely seems to be some double-talking going on here (despite Jet's responses)  , sounds a bit like McGreevey would in a bathhouse running into two of his boyfriends and trying to politic his way out... or in. 
    
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