Author |
Topic: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters (Read 507 times) |
|
Red Zone Master
# 179
oh Lord, deliver us from the fury of the Norsemen!
  
Posts: 1045
Back to top
|
 |
Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
« Reply #3 on: Aug 6th, 2007, 8:21am » |
 Quote  Modify
|
on Aug 5th, 2007, 10:42am, steelkings wrote:| With the silly keeper rules we play with... |
|
no kidding! 
so who's your keeper? Do you have to decide what you'll do before you know if you're picking 2nd or third? What are the scoring rules?
at first glance, I'd say stay where you are. Take Jackson at #2 if you can (duh!  ). I don't think I'd drop to 6th. The top tier is only 2 deep in my opinion (LT and Jackson), so it might seem prudent to drop to 6th, but with that list of keepers, you're down to Zander, McGahee, Rudi, MoJo & Westbrook as the next 5 top runners (arguably). The 1st 3 of that list would be fine (by me) @ 6, but if you get stuck with MoJo or Westy at 6, that's too high IMHO. So I'd stay at #3 and ensure you get Zander at 3.
|
|
 Logged |
3 straight underperforming seasons, one nitwit head coach, 2 problem child WRs, 1 collosal trade bungle....but a wild boat party with booze and hookers!!!????? Priceless.
|
|
|
Philosopher King
of Fantasy Football
Site Administrator
GBRFLer
Champ - '94, '99, '02, '04
I love ''the Gridiron''!
 
Posts: 19699
Back to top
|
 |
Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
« Reply #5 on: Aug 6th, 2007, 2:46pm » |
Quote Modify
|
on Aug 6th, 2007, 8:21am, captainpurple wrote:| at first glance, I'd say stay where you are. Take Jackson at #2 if you can (duh! ). I don't think I'd drop to 6th. The top tier is only 2 deep in my opinion (LT and Jackson), so it might seem prudent to drop to 6th, but with that list of keepers, you're down to Zander, McGahee, Rudi, MoJo & Westbrook as the next 5 top runners (arguably). The 1st 3 of that list would be fine (by me) @ 6, but if you get stuck with MoJo or Westy at 6, that's too high IMHO. So I'd stay at #3 and ensure you get Zander at 3. |
|
What he said,... except, by a hair, I'd go with Rudi, currently #6 at StegsList.com, at #3 over Alexander, currently #9 at StegsList.com.
|
|
Logged |
|
|
|
UFF Primetime Prophet
# 29
Pay, I said pay attention, son.
Posts: 5675
Back to top
|
|
Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
« Reply #6 on: Aug 6th, 2007, 3:56pm » |
Quote Modify
|
I'd probably go ahead and drop back to the 6th spot and move up in the 2nd round. (How long do you have to make that decision? Can you wait to see what happens early in the draft and then make the call? If the guy keeps Addai, then don't move because SJax is worth staying at #3 for.)
I just had a draft with my 12-team money league this past weekend. The picks went: LT2, SJax, LJ, Zander, Manning!, Gore, Rudi, Addai, Parker, Henry, BWB, and then Brady/Marvin on the flip. (I grabbed Rudi at 1.07 and then landed McGahee at 2.06 on the way back!)
So let's say the guy doesn't keep Addai (which he shouldn't -- not for the 1.01 pick). He'll probably (95%+) go with LT2 at #1 overall. If he doesn't, he'll go with Manning, which helps push a better back to you.
So LT2 is 1, SJax is 2, LJ is a keeper so that makes Zander the likely #3. You'll probably have to choose from Rudi, Addai, Parker, or Manning at #6. If Manning has done well historically in your league, then draft him at #6 because you already have a first-round FF back in Henry on your roster. Then moving up in round #2 will likely net you another solid starting RB (RBrown, McGahee, Bush, TJones, CBenson) in round 2.
|
|
Logged |
|
|
|
Gridiron Great
GBRFLer
Champ - '14, '23
# 5
Posts: 3340
Back to top
|
|
Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
« Reply #7 on: Aug 6th, 2007, 4:11pm » |
Quote Modify
|
on Aug 6th, 2007, 3:56pm, Philly wrote:I'd probably go ahead and drop back to the 6th spot and move up in the 2nd round. (How long do you have to make that decision? Can you wait to see what happens early in the draft and then make the call? If the guy keeps Addai, then don't move because SJax is worth staying at #3 for.)
I just had a draft with my 12-team money league this past weekend. The picks went: LT2, SJax, LJ, Zander, Manning!, Gore, Rudi, Addai, Parker, Henry, BWB, and then Brady/Marvin on the flip. (I grabbed Rudi at 1.07 and then landed McGahee at 2.06 on the way back!)
So let's say the guy doesn't keep Addai (which he shouldn't -- not for the 1.01 pick). He'll probably (95%+) go with LT2 at #1 overall. If he doesn't, he'll go with Manning, which helps push a better back to you.
So LT2 is 1, SJax is 2, LJ is a keeper so that makes Zander the likely #3. You'll probably have to choose from Rudi, Addai, Parker, or Manning at #6. If Manning has done well historically in your league, then draft him at #6 because you already have a first-round FF back in Henry on your roster. Then moving up in round #2 will likely net you another solid starting RB (RBrown, McGahee, Bush, TJones, CBenson) in round 2. |
|
This is a GREAT analysis and I agree completely!!
|
|
Logged |
"Every rule has an exception....the exception can't become the rule"
|
|
|
MordecaiCourage
Guest
Back to top
|
|
Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
« Reply #8 on: Aug 6th, 2007, 4:12pm » |
Quote Modify
 Remove
|
on Aug 6th, 2007, 3:56pm, Philly wrote:I'd probably go ahead and drop back to the 6th spot and move up in the 2nd round. (How long do you have to make that decision? Can you wait to see what happens early in the draft and then make the call? If the guy keeps Addai, then don't move because SJax is worth staying at #3 for.)
I just had a draft with my 12-team money league this past weekend. The picks went: LT2, SJax, LJ, Zander, Manning!, Gore, Rudi, Addai, Parker, Henry, BWB, and then Brady/Marvin on the flip. (I grabbed Rudi at 1.07 and then landed McGahee at 2.06 on the way back!)
So let's say the guy doesn't keep Addai (which he shouldn't -- not for the 1.01 pick). He'll probably (95%+) go with LT2 at #1 overall. If he doesn't, he'll go with Manning, which helps push a better back to you.
So LT2 is 1, SJax is 2, LJ is a keeper so that makes Zander the likely #3. You'll probably have to choose from Rudi, Addai, Parker, or Manning at #6. If Manning has done well historically in your league, then draft him at #6 because you already have a first-round FF back in Henry on your roster. Then moving up in round #2 will likely net you another solid starting RB (RBrown, McGahee, Bush, TJones, CBenson) in round 2. |
|
|
|
Logged |
|
|
|
Philosopher King
of Fantasy Football
Site Administrator
GBRFLer
Champ - '94, '99, '02, '04
I love ''the Gridiron''!
Posts: 19699
Back to top
|
 |
Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
« Reply #9 on: Aug 6th, 2007, 6:15pm » |
Quote Modify
|
Okay,... I think I'm starting to get this...
This point of Jeff's is very  ...
on Aug 6th, 2007, 3:56pm, Philly wrote:| (How long do you have to make that decision? Can you wait to see what happens early in the draft and then make the call? If the guy keeps Addai, then don't move because SJax is worth staying at #3 for.) |
|
That said, the guy would be a TOTAL idiot to not drop Addai and take Tomlinson with the 1.01 pick. Furthermore, given what my ultimate suggestion is going to be here, it's a bit moot.
Quote:| So LT2 is 1, SJax is 2, LJ is a keeper so that makes Zander the likely #3. You'll probably have to choose from Rudi, Addai, Parker, or Manning at #6. If Manning has done well historically in your league, then draft him at #6 because you already have a first-round FF back in Henry on your roster. Then moving up in round #2 will likely net you another solid starting RB (RBrown, McGahee, Bush, TJones, CBenson) in round 2. |
|
Alright... This is going to be a stream of consciousness...  Since you have Henry, if you think you can get Manning at #6, this is the best path. But, if you don't, I think you'll be giving up a little bit at running back... in the sense that I think the difference between #6 and #3 will be slightly greater than the difference between a lower 2nd rounder and a higher one... because in round 2 I think we're talking a tier down. So, the difference is in terms of magnitude (of tiers, i.e., the differences in the top tier/toward the top in general are a bit more clear-cut and slightly greater than are the differences as you go down). Point being, I don't think you should be concerned with losing out a tier of RB's, i.e. in round 1 you are generally working in the top tier of RB's and in round 2 you are generally working in the second tier of RB's. In even other words, you're probably looking at a VERY similar, if not the same exact, RB in round 2, regardless of which pick you have. That will definitely not be the case in round 1, with perhaps the single exception being the varying views of Shaun Alexander entering this season. Of course, (I think  ) you haven't told us how far you'd exactly move up in the second round if you decide to drop to #5/#6. The difference between the #1 pick of round 2 and the last pick in round 2 or something like that would SURELY influence my analysis here. In that case, I would probably just say go with Jeff's advice. But, as I see things now, the main difference really is in round 1. Do you want #2/#3 or #5/#6? In all honesty, my instinct is to push the envelope on you here. If Manning really is that good in this league, sk, and you already have Henry, why not keep the #2/#3 pick and commit to taking Manning with it yourself??? If you don't get him, that means you get Jackson. 
...
 | I DIGRESS...
Of course,... we've already put enough good thought into a scoring-only league than ever should be. |
|
|  |
|
| « Last Edit: Aug 7th, 2007, 12:10am by Stegfucius » |
Logged |
|
|
|
Red Zone Master
# 179
oh Lord, deliver us from the fury of the Norsemen!
Posts: 1045
Back to top
|
|
Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
« Reply #11 on: Aug 9th, 2007, 12:41am » |
Quote Modify
|
I don't see any other RB that would score better than Jackson. Peyton will throw more with a poor defense this year (IMO), so I've projected him at 36-38 TDs. That's 144-152 pts. Jackson will be part of a high powered offense, but Torry Holt, Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael will steal a lot of TDs. Jackson is a sure fire #2 in most leagues, but I still only project him at 17 TDs due to some tough defenses on the sked. That's 102 pts.
So the only player I see getting you a better total score is Peyton.
That being said, I'd still take Jackson. You can still hopefully get on of the top 6 QBs (as I've ranked them anyway) in the 2nd (Peyton, Palmer, Brees, Brady, Romo, Bulger). Romo is a personal pick, that many disagree with, and Bulger might be a tough pick if you have Jackson, but you could go with McNabb in the 3rd as well.
A lot of rambling here, but in short, I'd still take Jackson.
|
|
Logged |
3 straight underperforming seasons, one nitwit head coach, 2 problem child WRs, 1 collosal trade bungle....but a wild boat party with booze and hookers!!!????? Priceless.
|
|
|
Philosopher King
of Fantasy Football
Site Administrator
GBRFLer
Champ - '94, '99, '02, '04
I love ''the Gridiron''!
Posts: 19699
Back to top
|
 |
Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
« Reply #12 on: Aug 9th, 2007, 2:58am » |
Quote Modify
|
I agree with a lot of cp's analysis (and Phil's, for that matter), but this is where I peel off. As per my post above, I say man-up and go with Manning. QB's of his caliber, really he is in a class by himself, won't be had with your now late (as far as I know) second rounder. But, there'll be a Benson, Jones, McAllister, or someone like that waiting to be scooped up and paired up with Henry (and LenDale) to make for a hell of a backfield... behind the MAN(ning).
|
|
Logged |
|
|
|
|
Home
Help
Search
Members
Games
Login
Register
Reply
Notify of replies
Send Topic
Print
