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# 58
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Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« on: Aug 25th, 2005, 9:34pm » |
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And good grief, I swear those guys are slacking off this year. I'm not sure how I'll screw up with this team, but it will probably happen. (I always seem to lose by the tiebreaker in the 2nd week of the playoffs).
I traded the overall 1st pick and took McAllister at #2, I also received the #23 for the #25, the #47 for the #49, and #71 for #96.
1. RB Deuce McAllister #2
2. WR Torry Holt #23
3. RB Stephen Jackson #24
4. WR Roy Williams #48
5. RB Tatum Bell #47
6. DEF Baltimore Ravens #71
7. WR Chris Chambers #72
8. RB Kevan Barlow #73
9. RB Mike Anderson #97
10. QB Jake Plummer #120
11. QB Byron Leftwich #121
12. TE L.J. Smith #144
13. TE Doug Jolley #145
14. WR Michael Jenkins #168
15. PK Mike Nugent #169
I know Tomlinson is all that and a side of nachos, but I think I got the better of the trade, because it allowed me to pick up Holt, Roy Williams and the Baltimore defense. Plus I don't like San Diegos schedule this year, and Tomlinson's yards per carry really dropped noticeably last year.
One spot where I think I screwed up was #97 where I felt compelled to take Mike Anderson. I really don't like him, but who would be completely shocked if he starts all year? I was going to use #97 on Chad Pennington, but he was taken shortly after, and then had to get Jake Plummer at #120 instead. Plummer was obviously a great deal at #120, but despite his great numbers last year, I still think he plays like a knucklehead and is not completely immune from getting benched unless he reels it in.
Anyway, any thoughts are welcome.
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Gridiron Great
# 183
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #1 on: Aug 25th, 2005, 10:47pm » |
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Your safe with Plummer because, although as you eluded to, he isn't the most reliable QB out there and especially if your league penalizes BIG for mistakes,..............the depth behind him is that much more awful IMO.
You certainly went with alot of youth! Roy Williams, Stephen Jackson, Tatum Bell (great pick there IMO) so, lets hope that all pans out. It has been my experience as of late that, offensive veterans carry fantasy teams much better than their younger counter parts.
However, one of those young backs, S-Jax or Bell, should come through pretty big this year.
I don't know your scoring system so, its a bit difficult to really establish a fair opinion but, I certainly would have yaken Carolina's "D" before Baltimores. But thats just preference and especially if you get alot points for sacks and turnovers.
I think the Raven's D is in for somewhat of a learning curve with their new system - the 46-DEF - and quite frankly, I am not even sure that it can be that successful in today's NFL-game.
That said, if I were going to give the benfit of the doubt then, I most certainly would extend that here. Baltimore has the personel to make up for schemes that might take some time getting used to.
I like the M.Anderson tail but, I might have gambled later on and taken Ron Dayne instead. I think he has a chance at becoming the comeback player of the year.
Leftwich was great value there. And so was LJ Smith.
You have a solid team Jake!
Can you post some of the other teams that you think might be in contention with you?
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| « Last Edit: Aug 25th, 2005, 10:50pm by KillerKingSting » |
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #3 on: Aug 26th, 2005, 8:39am » |
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1. RB Deuce McAllister #2 - Nice pick, but you could've traded down even further to get him.
2. WR Torry Holt #23 - Could be the best WR this year as long as S-Jax doesn't steal all the TDs.
3. RB Stephen Jackson #24 - Oh, I see. A bit risky with #2 RB and #1 WR from same team...
4. WR Roy Williams #48 - Amazing receiver, but he has others vying to take ball away from him.
5. RB Tatum Bell #47 - Tremendous value pick.
6. DEF Baltimore Ravens #71 - Don't know scoring, but Ravens D could be scary with the 46 this year.
7. WR Chris Chambers #72 - Someone has to catch the ball in Miami. Nice pick.
8. RB Kevan Barlow #73 - Why?
9. RB Mike Anderson #97 - A bit early, IMO, but a must-have behind Tatum.
10. QB Jake Plummer #120 - Big yards and TDs! Great value.
11. QB Byron Leftwich #121 - New, vertical offense helps!
12. TE L.J. Smith #144 - Will get plenty of red-zone chances.
13. TE Doug Jolley #145 - He could be a #1 FF TE.
14. WR Michael Jenkins #168 - I love this pick!
15. PK Mike Nugent #169 - Could be the next great one.
So, there are my comments. I think you're stacked at every position. I don't like the Barlow pick, but all the others are good. How does Tatum Bell fall to the fifth round?
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# 58
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #4 on: Aug 26th, 2005, 12:35pm » |
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Thanks KillerKing and Sexy for your interesting observations. Philly, great analysis as usual.
The spilt of sentiment concerning the Denver runningbacks is interesting. I agree with Philly and KillerSting that Tatum Bell was a great value in the 5th round, but Sexy also has a good point about staying away from the entire situation. The reason I took Bell in that spot was that all the top-notch QBs were gone, and I was considering Michael Vick, but wasn't going to spend a 5th rounder on him.
For anybody that hasn't drafted for a particular league yet, there is perhaps another reason to steer clear of the Denver backfield. Check out the fantasy playoff week schedule for Denver:
Week 14 12/11 Baltimore, 4:15
Week 15 12/17 @Buffalo, 8:30
Week 16 12/24 Oakland, 4:15
Obviously Oakland is not a problem, but Baltimore anywhere and Buffalo at home in December are not ideal matchups.
Nevertheless, I would rather preemptively hold Bell and Anderson throughout the season then get my butt kicked by them.
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #9 on: Aug 27th, 2005, 2:50am » |
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Yeah, Denver puts out 1000 yard rushers like clockwork.
But, KKS, go ahead and tell me which RB is going to start, barring injuries, weeks 1-17 for the Denver Broncos right now.
Ok, now how about the Seattle Seahawks or San Diego Chargers?
That's the point about the Denver RB situation. It's going to be Mike Anderson or Tatum Bell or even Quentin Griffin all year long and you won't be able to tell who's going to start even on gameday!
I disagree with the Ron Dayne sleeper assessment. He's been a bum almost his entire NFL career and I don't see that changing in Denver. He's probably on my comatose list.
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| « Last Edit: Aug 27th, 2005, 2:53am by sexydexy » |
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #11 on: Aug 27th, 2005, 5:15am » |
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on Aug 27th, 2005, 2:50am, sexydexy wrote:But, KKS, go ahead and tell me which RB is going to start, barring injuries, weeks 1-17 for the Denver Broncos right now.
...
That's the point about the Denver RB situation. It's going to be Mike Anderson or Tatum Bell or even Quentin Griffin all year long and you won't be able to tell who's going to start even on gameday!
I disagree with the Ron Dayne sleeper assessment. He's been a bum almost his entire NFL career and I don't see that changing in Denver. He's probably on my comatose list. |
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Dude, the only reason Griffin might make the team is because Clarett has been such a disappointment so much so that he probably has one foot out the door already. While I don't think it is the end all argument (as I've indicated elsewhere here on "the Gridiron"), there is some truth to the fact that Denver's "patient, one-cut" rushing philosophy is much more suited to Dayne's style of running than the "plow-ahead, big-back" style he was being forced to play in New York, which just made him look like "  ". Dayne has a WAY better chance to be the go-to tailback in Denver than does Griffin. But, again, the depth chart as it appears now is: 1) Bell (despite Anderson's preseason starting), 2) Anderson, 3) Dayne, 4) Griffin (but, if all goes as originally planned, a BIG IF mind you, they'd ultimately like to keep Clarett in favor of him). ... The key in fantasy football is to be flexible of mind. Adjusting your thoughts and accepting "real" changes in "circumstance" at a moderate pace is the key to fantasy football... and life for that matter (when it's usually referred to as "going with the flow"). 
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #13 on: Aug 27th, 2005, 6:08am » |
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on Aug 27th, 2005, 5:56am, sexydexy wrote:| With all due respect, Steg, my point about trying to figure out which Denver RB to start on a week by week basis still stands...at least for the past few years. Once the Terrell Davis era ended, it's been a crapshoot as to whom is going to get the rock. |
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I didn't contest that point. It's a valid argument with acceptable premises. I don't know if I see 100% eye-to-eye with it, but it's not a hill I am willing to die on, in any event. It's ultimately a good, fantasy-relevant point.
Quote:| And Ron Dayne being a good NFL RB anywhere? Come on, are you serious? I'll believe it when I see it. All I can think of when it comes to Ron Dayne is..."Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile." |
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Well, you make your stand... I'll take my stance. In the end, we'll see who's still standing... if either of us.
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Gridiron Great
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #14 on: Aug 27th, 2005, 6:24am » |
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on Aug 27th, 2005, 5:56am, sexydexy wrote:| With all due respect, Steg, my point about trying to figure out which Denver RB to start on a week by week basis still stands...at least for the past few years. Once the Terrell Davis era ended, it's been a crapshoot as to whom is going to get the rock. |
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Thats what adds the element of "fun" to fantasy football. If we KNEW everything there was to know (LT2 will start in SD, Alexander in SEA) then, wheres the element of anticipation in that?
Sure we NEED that type of consistency that LT2 and Shawn brings into FF but also, we need the opposite as well. A splash of bewilderment, suspense, incredulity.............a thunder bolt of wonder. Theres ALOT of fun in that.
Quote:| I would take a Denver RB late on the premise that their *might* be a starting job for one back (Tatum Bell?) but I certainly would not want to depend on them as a RB1 or RB2. |
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Ok, I don't mean to be picking on you Dex but, that point wasn't the theme of Jake's draft. He took Bell as his 3rd back. And quite frankly, I know a couple of membranes in the Insane Gang league, myself included, that would have certainly used Droughns as a #2 back last year.
Though the aforementioned wasn't drafted in most leagues and therefore snatched off of waivers/free agency in most leagues, he was still a #1-#2 back for alot of fantasy teams.
Quote:| And Ron Dayne being a good NFL RB anywhere? Come on, are you serious? I'll believe it when I see it. All I can think of when it comes to Ron Dayne is..."Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile." |
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Fair enough. I think otherwise. I HOPE otherwise. And if not then, how can one make an argument against on using a very LATE round draft pick to pick up Dayne?
An argument based on a late round pick?
Come on!!!! Thats like pissing in the wind.
Argue about a 1st or 2nd or 3rd - etc etc.
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Philosopher King
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #15 on: Aug 27th, 2005, 6:32am » |
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on Aug 27th, 2005, 6:24am, KillerKingSting wrote:Fair enough. I think otherwise. I HOPE otherwise. And if not then, how can one make an argument against on using a very LATE round draft pick to pick up Dayne?
An argument based on a late round pick?
Come on!!!! Thats like pissing in the wind.
Argue about a 1st or 2nd or 3rd - etc etc. |
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That was my point, as well... "Don't cut off your nose to spite your face" with your fantasy prejudices.
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Philosopher King
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #18 on: Aug 27th, 2005, 7:03pm » |
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Right, bg...
on Aug 27th, 2005, 6:03pm, sexydexy wrote:I don't have any prejudice or bias against Ron Dayne in any way.
But when was the last time he performed like an NFL RB to make you think he would be good in Denver?
That's all I'm saying. |
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sd, I'm really not trying to pull "apples and oranges" on you, but how do you feel about Travis Taylor this year? Follow...??? I'm guessing, based on your blanket logic here, that you don't like him either. Logically, you must be applying the same rule to Taylor as you are to Dayne. ... Cris Carter SUCKED and was a TOTAL disappointment in Philly. Do I have to recap his career. Ahman Green in Seattle...  in Green Bay...  Reuben Droughns in Detroit...  in Denver...  Ed McCaffery on the Giants was a fantasy non-factor, in Denver a solid #2/#3 most years. ... This list goes on and on. You are oversimplifying things, trying to push us into a logical corner by brow-beating us with this one(-sided), narrow-in-scope question, when, in fact, the more apropos question to be asking would be: "But when was the last time he performed like an NFL RB IN DENVER to make you think he would be good in Denver?", a question I think bg answered perfectly. ... Mind you, sd, you don't have to like Dayne. You just have to dislike him on more than just that line of reasoning.
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Philosopher King
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #20 on: Aug 27th, 2005, 10:03pm » |
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on Aug 27th, 2005, 9:09pm, sexydexy wrote:| I'm starting to think Mike Anderson will be the starter opening day now. |
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He very well could be. I don't disagree.
How long that remains to be the case, though, is the $100,000 question.
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #21 on: Aug 28th, 2005, 6:18pm » |
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To change the subject from the exciting battle in Denver  , I am a bit curious about your first round pick, Jake.
As Philly pointed out ...
Quote:| Nice pick, but you could've traded down even further to get him. |
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Can I assume from this that you think Deuce will be amazing this year? Without knowing the rules of your league, I would assume that you feel there were compelling reasons to take Deuce over Alexander, Edge or even Manning (I am particularly curious b/c I am picking 4th in a draft next week) 
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| « Last Edit: Aug 28th, 2005, 6:19pm by DB » |
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #22 on: Aug 28th, 2005, 7:42pm » |
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Quote:As Philly pointed out ...
Quote:Nice pick, but you could've traded down even further to get him.
Can I assume from this that you think Deuce will be amazing this year? Without knowing the rules of your league, I would assume that you feel there were compelling reasons to take Deuce over Alexander, Edge or even Manning (I am particularly curious b/c I am picking 4th in a draft next week) |
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I think you guys are absolutely correct that Deuce at #2, or even #4 is too high. Believe it or not, I never considered Edge, Manning or Alexander, and I was attempting to trade down to a much lower spot, like #10, which would have been ideal. A trade with the #2 team was all I really had time to negotiate, since it was during work hours, and I have shit to do; I'm sure you guys can emphatize with that.
The two guys I was targeting in the 1st round were McAllister, and Kevin Jones. Now, truth be told I would have really liked to end up with Jones, but I figured there was an ever-so-slight chance that he would fall to #23 when I picked again (no such luck, he went at #7).
I think Deuce will be much improved this year, but I avoided Alexander for entirely secondary reasons, like his holdout until late July, and the fact that the Seahawks defense appears to be really awful. The Seahawks schedule is favorable this year, so Alexander is a very solid pick, I just went with my personal gameplan.
Now realistically, if you have the #4 pick and you want to play it safe, Manning is probably the guy to get. There seems to be alot of good runningback values this year in the later rounds, so as long as you use your 2nd and 3rd on backs you should do great.
However.....If you are nuts  like me, you will probably use the #4 pick on Kevin Jones or Deuce McAllister.
I don't know if you guys like to consider strength of schedule at all, but I find it is relevant for some draft decisions, especially checking out what may happen in the fantasy playoff weeks.
This particular table represents the 2005 schedules assessed against 2004 stats:
http://www.junkyardjake.com/SOS/sos_pass.htm
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| « Last Edit: Aug 28th, 2005, 7:44pm by junkyardjake » |
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Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
« Reply #23 on: Aug 28th, 2005, 8:33pm » |
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on Aug 28th, 2005, 7:42pm, junkyardjake wrote:
Is there any way I could see a table representing the (projected) 2004 schedules assessed against 2003's stats or 2003 schedules against 2002's stats, etc., etc.? (You all know where I am going with this...)
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