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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Trends starting to take shape
        
(Message started by: bgsgfan on Sep 16^th, 2002, 3:11am)

Title: Trends starting to take shape
Post by bgsgfan on Sep 16^th, 2002, 3:11am

In week one I had a thread with surprises and asked for opinions regarding whether they were flukes or the real deal. This week I am seperating that into 2 threads... this one will deal with trends that have started to take shape through the first 2 games. Feel free to comment on any that I list or add some of your own.

Look for these things to continue

Detroit Lions
This whole team is putrid. Losing badly to the Phins is one thing, but to be destroyed by Carolina is another. They look to be the worst team in the league and I would not hesitate to play anyone on my roster against them. Ricks and Stewart are the only players I see worthy of starting, and they are low-grade starters.

Edge
He's baaaaaack! He will end up as one of the top 3 fantasy backs of the year. These things should have tipped people off: "PARTIAL tear", "flag football", "charity basketball".

New England Patriots
Yes, they were lucky last year... but they haven't let luck even remotely into the picture this year. Brady, Brown, Branch, and Patten were probably all significantly undervalued. If you are in a deep keeper league or dynasty league, you might still be able to get Branch, but he won't last past this weeks waivers.

Minnesota's pass defense
Folks - it sucks. Bench your studs and play your backup QBs and WRs against them.

Denver's RBBC
Barring injury, all 3 guys will get action all season long.

Don't count on it (these trends will end, and soon

Really too many to go into each one, but these teams will rebound: Rams, Steelers, and Cincinnati (slightly). Carolina and San Diego will also rebound, but the opposite direction.

Kelly Holcomb

Couch will either start the Pit game or come in for Holcomb. He played well, but he is a backup.

Title: Re: Trends starting to take shape
Post by StegRock on Sep 16^th, 2002, 7:40am

I don't know if this fits on this thread exactly, but I did not want to start a new one just for it and it seems to fit the motif of this one...

It is seeming more and more like the Patriots victory in Super Bowl XXXVI is less of a fluke than we thought it was. Bill Belichick has really put together a great team, predicated by a powerhouse defense and an overachieving offense headed by Charlie Weis. The NFL has, perhaps, caught up to the gimmicky Rams offense.

At any rate, though, I think many of us forgot about the cyclical nature of conference dominance in the NFL and that we are sort of in an AFC-dominant era now and have been since 1998, notwithstanding the Rams Super Bowl victory in 1999. I think many of us forgot about this factor when thinking that the Patriots would merely be the park the Rams were going to walk through on their way to a second Super Bowl title in three years. Basically the 70's, from 1969 when the Jets won the
Championship through 1981 when the Raiders won it, the Super Bowl was pretty much dominated by the AFC/AFL, winning all but three (I think). Then from 1982 when the 49ers won their first one through 1997 when the Packers won it, the NFC dominated winning all but the 1984 Super Bowl which was won by the then Las Angeles Raiders. Now, since 1998 the AFC has one four of the last five and I think that Rams victory may end up being the last gasp for the NFC for awhile, akin to the Raiders winning it for the AFC in 1984 (and, notwithstanding subsequent NFL realignment, perhaps, to a somewhat lesser degree, even the Baltimore Colts' winning it for the NFC in 1971).

In any event, I really believe we are in for overall AFC dominance for a decade or so to come. :o

What do you guys think?

Title: Re: Trends starting to take shape
Post by Venom on Sep 16^th, 2002, 9:16am

The nice about the NFL is the parity. Rams, Steelers and Eagles are 0-2 and Cleveland leads the Central. I don't think any decade will ever be dominated by one conference again. I was wrong about the Pats as well. They look like a beast and it wouldn't surprise me if they go all the way (mind you, it would suck ass because they are boring as hell to watch).

I've also noticed that recently QBs and WRs are taking less and less time to acclimate to new teams and each other. When free agency started it would take a year or two for chemistry to build. Not anymore, though, as Drew Bledsoe looks like he's been playing with the Buffalo receivers for ten years. Speaking of receivers, I'm going to have to start changing my tune in regards to drafting rookies.

One trend that hasn't changed: My Falcons still seem to lose the close ones >:(. I fear for Dan's health.

Title: Re: Trends starting to take shape
Post by muzz on Sep 16^th, 2002, 9:27am

Excuse me? Boring as hell to watch? Apparently you haven't been watching them this yr have U . A suffocating Defense that makes plays, and they are spreading the ball around. I don't understand that comment. They may have been a lil dull last year running alot, but with the defense playing ......... dare I say it... an exciting( if there ever was such a thing ) brand of D, and all the new weapons they have, they will not be as dull as last year. This I can tell you for sure, because I watch every game. They look good, real good.

Title: Re: Trends starting to take shape
Post by Jetdoc on Sep 16^th, 2002, 10:12am

It's amazing how week 2 is completed and you can really see how some of the players and teams are shaping up...

1. Michael Vick is for real, and will combine top twenty RB numbers with top twenty QB numbers. That means a top five finish among fantasy QB's. I wasn't a believer before the season, but I am now.

2. The Giants and Bronco defenses are for real. If you get scored based on tackles, sacks, points, etc...pick up their defenses in a hurry. Should finish in the top five defenses this year. Miami will be up there as well.

3. The best player to have on the Patriots given their success is...Adam Vinatieri. Will put up better numbers than Wilkins and Vanderjagt this year.

4. Shaun Alexander is shaping up to be this year's biggest bust. Any player on the Denver offense is a pretty good Canidate (HA!) as well. Michael Bennett in the Viking RBBC is not good either.

5. Fred Taylor, Edgerrin James and Jimmy Smith are looking to be the steals of the draft.

Don't buy the hype yet on these:

1. Warner's lack of TDs - the Ram offense will come around soon enough, and those looking to deal Warner while his stock is low is going to be in for a rude awakening.

2. Lamar Smith - the Carolina offense will come back to earth when they start playing teams that are not projected to finish with 1-2 wins.

3. William Green - his stock is low, but he is getting more carries and is gaining more confidence with each touch.

4. Torry Holt - See Warner above...although Holt's numbers are depressed right now, he will see some long TD catches when the Rams start facing poor secondaries.

5. The Steeler defense - Cowher will make some adjustments in a hurry to correct for the run and shoot offenses that he's been seeing.

Title: Re: Trends starting to take shape
Post by StegRock on Sep 25^th, 2002, 11:39pm

on 09/16/02 at 07:40:11, StegRock wrote:

Well, I know what Sport's Illustrated thinks based on their response to the question "Based on the first three weeks of the regular season, which recent NFL trend appears to be holding?"! ;D

Here is the relevant quote:
"The one that says the AFC is obviously the stronger conference. Besides winning four of the past five Super Bowls, including the most recent two, the AFC has not lost a season series to the NFC since 1995. Granted, the past two years, the interconference series has been split 30-30 each season. But this year, the AFC holds an 8-4 lead through three weeks, and the strongest Super Bowl contenders appear to be in the AFC."

Here is a link to the whole piece:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/news/2002/09/24/burning_questions/.

Title: Re: Trends starting to take shape
Post by PhantasyPhilly on Sep 26^th, 2002, 10:03am

You don't think the Panthers or the Saints will carry the NFC to a Super Bowl win?

Title: Re: Trends starting to take shape
Post by ugley on Sep 26^th, 2002, 12:12pm

Have to agree with almost everything "said on this thread". The possible exception would qb/wr acclimation. Granted Bledsoe has clicked with his wr.s but so far it does'nt look Morton,Freeman and Ms. Glenn have lived up to the hype. I got burned several years ago when I bought into the Alvin Harper being a big time # 1 in Tampax Bay and have since avoided wr.s on going to new teams with no regrets. Roook wr.s and te.s hve been a real surprise this year. For the first time in 9 years I have a rook te. (McMichael) on my roster and would try to draft stallworth if I had it to do over again. May not be a trend but I can't think of a rook rb. that has made a big impact yet.