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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Draft Tips
        
(Message started by: Razzak on Oct 11^th, 2002, 1:31am)

Title: Draft Tips
Post by Razzak on Oct 11^th, 2002, 1:31am

Every year I review my draft and see the mistakes I made. I only made one this year in Kordell and not waiting another round for Jimmy Smith... but that's behind me.

Here's a few things I picked up this year.

1) The Rookie RB phenomenon is overhyped.

It's sooo hard to choose which RB will be stellar (Tomlinson, Lewis) and which will flop (Green, Foster).

2) Avoid players with "nagging" injuries.

The players who had nagging injuries last year seem to still have them this year (George).

3) Avoid one-dimensional RB's on teams with bad D's

Examples: Bettis, A-train, and Holmes. Holmes is multidimensional and stays involved even if the team is trailing. Bettis and A-Train's D's collapsed on them after some free agency hits and now are not the backs they were last year.

4) Avoid backs with *running* quarterbacks.

This is *not* the same as a mobile quarterback. Garcia/Favre/Brooks are all mobile QB's, but they're not running QB's. This is mainly true when combined with a bad defense. McNabb/Culpepper/Vick are running QB's.

5) Get a solid backup if you have a running QB.

The running QB can put up monster stats, but Culpepper/Vick have both had their injury problems. McNair used to be a runner but seems to get injured on a monthly basis.

6) Avoid one-dimensional RB's in general.

All of today's RB's are threats from the backfield. Even Ricky Williams has adjusted his game and posts better (although still meager) receiving totals in MIA. Look at Dayne. :(

7) Draft Speed/Mobility

Runningbacks, WR's, QB's... speed kills.

8) Don't convince yourself of stupid theories.

Yeah, you heard me. The Stud WR people all came outta the woodwork last year and look where they are now. Don't touch a WR until the 3rd-4th round.

9) Always draft Favre's #2 receiver.

Schroeder last year. Driver this year. You can get them late-rounds and they've got a good chance of posting #'s.

10) Drink Beer

This way, no matter who you draft you'll be happy. At least for a few hours anyways.

Title: Re: Draft Tips
Post by DOLFAN on Oct 11^th, 2002, 10:55pm

OK Razzak i will take a stab at it. ::)

1. ROOK PHENOM---Total BULLSHIT!!!!! You just have to do your research. Willie Green fooled everyone this year. He was in the right offense, no competition...
Portis, Duckett and Foster(Lamar Smith had a solid few games) should all have a good year(barring injury). It happens every year. For every Thomas Jones, Dayne and Bennett there is a Lewis, Tomlinson, EDGE, (TD, Gary, Anderson), A-TRAIN, Robert Edwards...it is more of the offensive scheme and competition at that position. This has always been the easiest position to come in a produce ASAP! This is the most consistant producing area for rooks yr in/yr out.
2.INJURIES---Eddie George, Fred Taylor, Bettis, Jamal Lewis, TD, EDGE...50/50 split...you know risks before hand.
3. POOR DEF---Bettis, A-Train, Holmes...again BULLSHIT...CHI, PITT, and Jets were all supposed to have great DEFs this year. Who would/could have known? A good RB makes a better DEF and vice versa because of garbage yds.
4. Running Qbs---This IMO is more of the offensive playcalling and lack of players at the skill areas/desparation. Favre used to get more rushing yds until his RBs (Levens/Green) came along. Elway too. Look at Gannon, prior to Rice/Garner he was a top 5 rushing QB. Mcnabb/Vick are in the same boat due to no WRS. Duckett will have a solid yr IMO. Young was a running QB, but Hearst/watters had solid stats in S.F.
5. Backup Qbs---I agree 100% RUNNING OR NOT!!! Backup qbs help win championships...FF or not. Rams, Baltimore, N.E. ring a bell???The last 3 Superbowls have been won by backup qbs.
6. One deminsional RBS---Tomlinson, Fred Taylor, SDavis, (RWMS)who by the way is on his way to less catches than last year) are one/deminsional. But are top 8 RBs ...go figure. SD is top 12.
7. SPEED---Vick, Kennison, Bennett, Stallworth, Rocket, Moss, Dwight all ahve blazing speed, but unless they have the other skills and a solid cast around them, they are 50/50.
8. STUD WRS---50/50---Again offensive scheme. Bledsoe and the OC turn 2 good Wrs into very good FF guys. Harrison Horn and Booker are the only top 10 guys from last year that are there again this year. Again if you would have told me that no OAK or St Louis WR would not be here you would be RICH!!! Yet still it comes down to offensive schemes and supporting casts.
9. Favre's #2--I AGREE!!!!!!!
10. Hell yeah!!!!! [smiley=alcoholic.gif]...and a little when ya can... [smiley=bonghit.gif].. if that's what you are into...Steve. ;)

Title: Re: Draft Tips
Post by Razzak on Oct 13^th, 2002, 8:45pm

--removed quote because you can just scroll up--

I'm glad to see someone read this. Some of your "disagreements" are saying the same thing as mine and others I will respond to.

1. That's my point exactly. It's very hard to figure out which rookie RB will be the studs and which will be the duds. Therefore, they normally go higher in drafts than they are worth. You should never rely on a rookie week in and week out. They should be a back that you draft and hope breaks out. Although I agree it's the easiest position in the NFL to play and that's why rookies have so much success there. I don't mention drafting rookie WR's because they're not worth it until late late rounds and rookie QB's usually don't start and if they do they don't produce consistently. Of course, if you look at Carr/Harrington/Ramsey this week you'll tell me im full of shit.

2. Yep, you should know the risks, but this is a draft guide so I had to state that because maybe not everyone realizes it. George did finally get back on his horse this week, so maybe things are looking up for him. I thought he'd come back and produce this year and so far I've been wrong.

3. I believe you just look at last years defenses to determine who will be great this year. Not many people believed the Jets could get it done after losing two players to the Texans, and the Bears D got hurt by FA (lost Parrish to 9ers) and has been battling injuries since preseason. Bettis and A-train fell very far in our drafts for this reason. No, Bettis running all over the Bengals this week does not change this point. They're one dimensional and they have bad D's, so don't draft them. Obviously predicting D's is hard, but if you know a defense isn't going to be good and their back is one-dimensional you should avoid him. That is why I used the examples of A-Train and Bettis. If you can't predict D's at all, you shouldn't try to implement this I guess.

4. Either way, if the QB is running, the RB ain't.

6. I seriously disgaree with you categorizing Tomlinson and Taylor as one-dimensional RB's. Davis is. As of week 5, Taylor has 387 Rushing Yards vs. 190 Receiving. That doesn't look one-dimensional. Tomlinson only has 150 receiving but with the success he has between the tackles there's no reason to pass to him. Both of these guys can catch, so I wouldn't say they're one-dimensional. My list of one-dimensional backs are: Bettis, A-Train, Ricky Williams (still), Dayne, Alstott (good day today). Point is, the one-dimensional backs are normally only good if the team has a good defense and wins a lot (like Bettis last year). If the defense has some injuries and the teams fall behind, their stats will suffer whereas the all-purpose backs stay in the game and get catches even if their team is down.
7. Speed still kills. I didn't say draft the fastest guy in the rookie draft over Marshall Faulk. If two guys are competing for a position, go with the faster guy. Speed is the tie-breaker when drafting. If you're drafting Kennison over Terrell Owens because he's faster, you've got bigger problems.

8. Yep, and that's why you don't draft WR's early. They have no control over their own destiny.

I've stopped posting on FFToday and only post here now. That board's gone to shit while this one has people with intelligence.

Title: Re: Draft Tips
Post by ugley on Oct 15^th, 2002, 5:12pm

#s 1,2,3,4,6,7,10, should be written in stone. [smiley=bow.gif]