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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Strength of Schedule #s by Position
        
(Message started by: bgsgfan on Jun 26^th, 2003, 9:42pm)

Title: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by bgsgfan on Jun 26^th, 2003, 9:42pm

This year, in an effort to provide some recognition to the effect schedules make on players' performance, I am incorporating Strength of Schedule (SOS) information from last year into my projections.

Every team changes from year to year, but perhaps this will help some people with their projections.

The chart is organized as follows: the left column is the offensive team, each column after that is a specific statistic only for that position, each cell is the ratio of how well all the defenses on that team's schedule performed regarding that one stat for that one position.

One way to use the chart would be as follows. Originally predict a player's performance (McNabb will throww for 3500 yards), then multiply it by the factor (Phi, Pass Yards, 0.945) = 3,307.5. Personally, I weight my prediction twice and the SOS once ( I would then take average of 3500 and 3307.5 = 3,403.75.

Anyhow, the first set of data is for QBs. More on the way in the next few days.

Pass TD    Run TD    Pass Yards    Rush Yds    Pass Int
Ari    1.015    0.904    1.008    0.983    1.008
Atl    0.915    1.151    0.956    1.149    1.031
Bal    1.023    0.822    1.019    0.901    0.969
Buf    0.974    0.932    0.966    1.058    0.935
Car    0.974    1.014    0.978    1.084    1.080
Chi    1.129    1.068    1.074    0.971    1.011
Cin    0.962    0.795    1.028    0.750    1.038
Cle    1.015    0.849    1.027    0.810    1.015
Dal    0.936    1.068    0.967    1.072    0.996
Den    1.105    0.986    1.069    0.958    1.023
Det    1.094    0.986    1.043    1.021    1.015
GB    1.088    0.795    1.074    0.917    0.943
Hou    0.994    1.260    0.966    1.135    1.004
Ind    0.947    1.205    0.958    1.046    0.996
Jac    0.971    1.014    0.970    0.973    1.038
KC    1.053    1.041    1.044    0.898    0.924
Mia    0.956    1.178    0.971    1.022    0.908
Min    1.064    0.932    1.049    1.032    0.966
NE    0.915    0.986    0.951    1.028    0.866
NO    0.895    0.904    0.933    1.139    1.069
NYG    0.936    1.096    0.962    1.007    1.061
NYJ    0.962    1.315    0.948    1.079    0.947
Oak    1.076    0.849    1.079    0.916    0.950
Phi    0.924    1.315    0.945    1.143    1.088
Pit    1.020    0.712    1.030    0.799    1.011
SD    1.032    1.014    1.044    0.944    0.985
Sea    1.079    0.986    1.031    0.862    0.981
SF    1.020    0.658    1.008    0.857    1.027
StL    1.102    0.795    1.029    0.971    1.042
TB    0.985    1.205    0.969    1.242    1.042
Ten    0.924    1.151    0.948    1.047    0.992
Was    0.915    1.014    0.958    1.187    1.038

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by bgsgfan on Jun 26^th, 2003, 9:47pm

If anyone would like the entire spreadsheet, I will email it when i am completed. I have data on about twice as many stats as i showed, including times sacked, fumbles lost, etc..

I can also put this into a standard scoring format to come up with one set of numbers for each position. (I don't like doing that since it can be so easily misused by people with different scoring leagues).

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by bgsgfan on Jun 26^th, 2003, 10:09pm

Second set of data is for RBs.

TM Run TD Rec TD Rush Yds Rec Yds # Rec Fum Lost
Ari 1.0765 1.0000 1.0242 1.0070 0.9962 0.9714
Atl 0.7968 0.8000 0.9382 0.9872 0.9775 1.0714
Bal 1.1135 0.9000 0.9951 0.9812 0.9817 0.9714
Buf 0.9182 0.9400 1.0041 0.9843 1.0045 0.9714
Car 0.8496 0.9200 0.9940 0.9980 0.9671 1.2571
Chi 1.1451 1.3600 1.0089 1.0909 1.0571 1.0429
Cin 1.1821 0.9200 1.0275 0.9630 0.9997 0.8429
Cle 1.2137 1.0000 1.0048 0.9487 0.9858 0.9429
Dal 0.8760 0.9400 0.9870 1.0234 1.0232 1.0714
Den 1.1082 1.3000 1.0015 1.0034 1.0010 0.9857
Det 1.0449 1.2600 0.9971 1.0592 1.0363 0.9571
GB 1.0871 1.3400 1.0096 1.1471 1.1138 1.0571
Hou 0.9129 0.9600 0.9908 0.9888 0.9831 1.0429
Ind 0.8918 0.7600 0.9957 0.9683 0.9775 0.9857
Jac 0.9446 1.0000 1.0008 0.9683 0.9644 0.9000
KC 1.1398 1.0600 0.9753 0.9763 0.9900 0.8857
Mia 0.9815 0.9400 1.0347 0.9481 0.9997 0.9143
Min 1.1029 1.3200 1.0367 1.0834 1.0446 1.1714
NE 0.9393 0.8200 0.9958 0.9920 1.0128 0.8286
NO 0.7916 0.8400 0.9754 0.9444 0.9554 1.0286
NYG 0.8338 0.8600 0.9717 1.0040 1.0169 1.0286
NYJ 0.8602 1.0200 0.9750 0.9157 0.9332 0.8857
Oak 1.1609 1.0600 0.9827 1.0455 1.0723 0.9857
Phi 0.8443 0.8800 0.9671 0.9486 0.9637 0.8143
Pit 1.1504 0.9200 1.0302 1.0058 1.0474 0.9429
SD 1.1135 1.0400 0.9672 1.0148 1.0315 0.9571
Sea 1.0818 1.1000 1.0236 1.0218 1.0017 1.0000
SF 1.0976 0.9600 1.0720 1.0517 1.0100 1.1286
StL 1.1135 1.1400 1.0557 1.0131 0.9837 0.9857
TB 0.8179 0.9400 0.9536 0.9402 0.9353 1.2571
Ten 0.9815 0.8800 1.0099 0.9453 0.9242 0.9286
Was 0.8285 0.8200 0.9943 1.0306 1.0086 1.1857

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by Philly on Jun 26^th, 2003, 10:23pm

Wow... great stuff there! I'll have to check it out more thoroughly tomorrow.

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by DirkDiggler on Jun 27^th, 2003, 11:52am

on 06/26/03 at 22:23:37, Philly wrote:

Wow... great stuff there! .

Ditto what Philly said!! Thanks for sharing!!

A few things REALLY stick out. Here are my quick five with probably more to come later......

1) Looks like the Saints have a tough schedule for Aaron Brooks. Maybe cause they have to play the Bucs twice? This must be a concern for Brooks owners.

2) Looks like Kordell is set up to succeed with the Bears schedule. Favorable numbers in both TD's AND yards.

3) Ditto what I said for Brooks in regards to Deuce McAllister. Tough schedule numbers for him. AGain, probably cause they play the Bucs twice.

4) The NFC East has the TOUGHEST fantasy schedule out of any division, especially for the running backs. Hell, they have the toughest schedule period, not just for fantasy players.

5) Grab St. Louis players. They have nice schedule against the run AND passing.

5)

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by Walker Boh on Jun 27^th, 2003, 11:55pm

Wow, this stuff is impressive bgsgfan! :o

It's great to see a guy who obviously puts a great deal of thought into his fantasy sports. I'll admit that I'm not really grasping the concept of how this chart actually works [smiley=doh.gif], but I'm sure it took a lot of work to prepare and I admire your effort. [smiley=bow.gif] I'll be doing my best to make sense of it all! I would really like to see the complete chart when you finish: joskojw@hotmail.com

Thanks for sharing.[smiley=thumbsup.gif]

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by bgsgfan on Jun 28^th, 2003, 9:44am

Data set for WRs:

TM Rec TD Rec Yds # Rec
Ari 1.011 1.013 1.007
Atl 0.980 0.951 0.943
Bal 1.007 1.015 1.019
Buf 0.980 0.950 0.978
Car 1.020 0.980 0.973
Chi 1.094 1.069 1.042
Cin 0.946 1.037 1.043
Cle 0.980 1.042 1.057
Dal 0.980 0.947 0.952
Den 1.041 1.098 1.092
Det 1.063 1.048 1.037
GB 1.050 1.056 1.039
Hou 0.976 0.962 0.959
Ind 0.976 0.953 0.945
Jac 0.980 0.982 0.969
KC 1.024 1.062 1.051
Mia 0.950 0.973 0.984
Min 1.020 1.040 1.040
NE 0.928 0.919 0.937
NO 0.950 0.939 0.941
NYG 0.976 0.956 0.948
NYJ 0.959 0.956 0.974
Oak 1.020 1.079 1.079
Phi 0.967 0.948 0.963
Pit 1.020 1.030 1.030
SD 0.989 1.042 1.059
Sea 1.059 1.033 1.006
SF 1.024 1.004 0.991
StL 1.098 1.041 1.038
TB 1.033 0.980 0.976
Ten 0.928 0.947 0.948
Was 0.972 0.948 0.981

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by bgsgfan on Jun 28^th, 2003, 9:45am

Data set for TEs:

TM Rec TD Rec Yds # Rec
Ari 1.038 0.986 0.965
Atl 0.782 0.930 0.950
Bal 1.158 1.091 1.052
Buf 1.023 1.026 1.029
Car 0.827 0.930 0.943
Chi 1.038 1.061 1.057
Cin 1.038 1.075 1.057
Cle 1.098 1.060 1.050
Dal 0.782 0.980 0.974
Den 1.158 1.037 1.046
Det 1.068 1.000 0.997
GB 0.962 1.046 1.020
Hou 1.128 0.958 0.979
Ind 1.038 0.969 0.983
Jac 0.932 0.924 0.950
KC 1.098 1.045 1.056
Mia 1.008 0.997 1.039
Min 0.992 1.033 1.020
NE 0.992 1.038 1.043
NO 0.752 0.892 0.894
NYG 0.887 0.938 0.960
NYJ 0.992 0.964 0.969
Oak 1.263 1.120 1.120
Phi 0.857 0.930 0.942
Pit 1.083 1.066 1.064
SD 1.188 1.092 1.080
Sea 1.098 1.027 1.017
SF 1.023 0.966 0.947
StL 1.053 0.995 0.949
TB 0.872 0.954 0.971
Ten 0.947 0.953 0.967
Was 0.827 0.916 0.911

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by bgsgfan on Jun 28^th, 2003, 9:47am

Fianlly, what I am sure everyone has been waiting most anxiously for, the data set for Ks:

TM XP ALL FGs
Ari 1.070 1.069
Atl 0.906 0.926
Bal 1.063 1.044
Buf 0.955 0.979
Car 0.929 0.932
Chi 1.122 1.073
Cin 1.033 1.030
Cle 1.082 1.047
Dal 0.927 0.951
Den 1.063 1.042
Det 1.057 1.047
GB 1.059 1.058
Hou 0.970 0.952
Ind 0.948 0.949
Jac 0.962 0.950
KC 1.059 1.040
Mia 0.984 0.979
Min 1.051 1.047
NE 0.925 0.963
NO 0.862 0.902
NYG 0.939 0.967
NYJ 0.951 0.950
Oak 1.066 1.060
Phi 0.923 0.956
Pit 1.061 1.050
SD 1.009 1.028
Sea 1.120 1.103
SF 1.064 1.048
StL 1.087 1.059
TB 0.936 0.937
Ten 0.939 0.941
Was 0.878 0.921

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by bgsgfan on Jun 28^th, 2003, 10:03am

on 06/27/03 at 23:55:57, Walker Boh wrote:

I'll admit that I'm not really grasping the concept of how this chart actually works

The problem lies in my explanation. Let me go through my steps for one value - Arizona's QB SOS ratio for Pass TD's (1.015).

1. The first thing I did was looked at how many QB Pass TDs were given up by each defense last year(Det gave up 27 for instance).

2. I then divided that by the average for the league (21.375) to get each specific teams defensive ratio for Pass TDs given up by QBs (Det's is 1.263, or in other words they allowed 26.3% more than the league average).

3. Finally, I looked at Arizona's schedule (they play Det in week 1 this year) and took the average of defensive ratios for QB Pass TDs (1.015).

What that number represents is how many QB Pass TDs Arizona's 2003 schedule allowed in 2002 compared to the rest of the league.

Clear as mud?

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by Razzak on Jul 3^rd, 2003, 8:26pm

Miami's got a great schedule for rushing TD's. Like Ricky needs any more evidence to be placed at the top of your boards.

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by bgsgfan on Jul 3^rd, 2003, 8:40pm

on 07/03/03 at 20:26:42, Razzak wrote:

Miami's got a great schedule for rushing TD's. Like Ricky needs any more evidence to be placed at the top of your boards.

Actually, for RBs, Miami is in the bottom half(barely) of the league for rushing touchdowns (ratio of 0.9815). You probably looked at the ratio for QBs.

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by Razzak on Jul 4^th, 2003, 4:29am

on 07/03/03 at 20:40:42, bgsgfan wrote:

Actually, for RBs, Miami is in the bottom half(barely) of the league for rushing touchdowns (ratio of 0.9815). You probably looked at the ratio for QBs.

Yep. Whoops. Data is more specific than I thought. ;) That's some hard-core numerical analysis there bgs. Do you actually plug all your projections into that or just use it to edit a few numbers (ie, the teams with extreme schedules)?

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by bgsgfan on Jul 4^th, 2003, 8:32am

on 07/04/03 at 04:29:22, Razzak wrote:

I used it to modify all of my projections, but I moderated by using this formula ((original projection+(original projection*SOS ratio))/2). On the whole it didn't affect my rankings much, at the most moving players 3 or 4 spots. I am tentative to use it full strength, however, due to the fact that it islast years data.

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by taterhog_14 on Jul 4^th, 2003, 9:11am

bgsgfan, very impressed by the analysis. I would really appreciate it if you would send the spreadsheet to me. (abjpb24@aol.com). Nice Work!!!! I didn't realize that somebody took so much thought into their fantasy picks [smiley=hmmmm.gif]

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by StegRock on Jul 4^th, 2003, 12:32pm

Oh, well, th 14, that's because you haven't been hangin' out on "the Gridiron" 'nuff! [smiley=smileytrash.gif] ;)

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by Walker Boh on Jul 4^th, 2003, 12:40pm

on 07/04/03 at 09:11:40, taterhog_14 wrote:

Yeah, before I came here, I thought I actually knew something about fantasy sports! Fact is, I'm constantly discovering new ways of judging and ranking players. There are so many ways to do it and you've got to find one that works for you. Stick around, you'll be glad you did!

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by StegRock on Jul 4^th, 2003, 1:41pm

on 07/04/03 at 12:40:02, Walker Boh wrote:

Fact is, I'm constantly discovering new ways of judging and ranking players. There are so many ways to do it and you've got to find one that works for you.

That is some chart you have developed, bg, and you surely have a forum here to promote/share your ideas/theories/works in. But, with all due respect to you number-crunchers out there, the best way is to do your homework (to an adequate degree) and then just...
[smiley=zenmaster.gif] "Ohhhhhhmmm... Ohhhhhhmmm... Ohhhhhhmmm... Ohhhhhhmmm... Ohhhhhhmmm..."

Title: Re: Strength of Schedule #s by Position
Post by bgsgfan on Jul 4^th, 2003, 1:54pm

on 07/04/03 at 13:41:55, StegRock wrote:

Would it come as any surprise if I said I try to bring every element of objectivity into this hobby I can?

There are many different ways to approach player evaluations - I like to analyze the numbers. ;)