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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Houston Texans - Week One Analysis
        
(Message started by: Jetdoc on Aug 29^th, 2003, 11:15am)

Title: Houston Texans - Week One Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Aug 29^th, 2003, 11:15am

Time to get this started up again, guys, and I've decided to get a jump on this given how crazy my week is looking for next week.

The Texans have the honor of starting their FF season against one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. And they get to play the Dolphins in Miami. That doesn't bode well for a team really looking to have an offensive turnaround in 2003...a good start is not in their future.

QB

David Carr is steadily improving, as is his offensive line. Hopefully some of the youth in the line have learned a little from their experiences in 2002 to give Carr a little more time in the pocket. Unfortunately, going against one of the best pass rushing defenses in the NFL isn't going to help Carr's Week 1 performance. I expect he'll see a little more of the Miami sky than he wants as he makes grass angels multiple times this week. Still not a viable starter, or a viable backup except for 14 team leagues.

David Carr - 180 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT; 40 yards rushing, 0 TDs.

RB

Ahhh...the Texans FINALLY have a rushing attack, as they've shown sporadically in the preseason. Stacey Mack is the clear starter in Houston, and the team has placed a lot of faith in his steamroller-type ability - he's one of the easier backs to block for in the NFL, which helps their young offensive line. I look for Mack to have a good 2003 season, but unfortunately not in this game against a hardened Miami run D. Tony Hollings should get a few looks in this game as well, primarily on third down or as a change-of-pace back. If Hollings excels early, Mack may have something to worry about come midseason.

Stacey Mack - 70 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 20 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Tony Hollings - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 40 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Jonathan Wells - great on special teams and warming the bench.

WR/TE

The biggest improvement in the offseason to the Texans' offense was to their WR corp. Andre Johnson is looking like a complete stud in the offseason and preseason - this guy has the body and the talent to be stellar in the NFL. Too bad he's a rookie - he might actually be worth something in a couple of years. His addition, however, immediately improves the value of Corey Bradford, which means good things for the Texans' #1 WR in 2003. The Miami secondary is pretty damn good, though, so any Texan WR is not worth starting Week 1. Billy Miller may see a few passes against a slower Miami LB corp, though, so I would give him the start.

Corey Bradford - 4 catches, 30 yards, 0 TDs
Andre Johnson - 3 catches, 40 yards, 0 TDs
Jabar Gaffney - 2 catches, 20 yards, 0 TDs
Billy Miller (TE) - 4 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD

K/DEF

Not worth starting unless the Texans are playing a crap team.

FINAL SCORE

I expect the the Texans will get steamrolled by Ricky Williams and stifled by the Dolphin D in their first game...

Miami 34, Houston 13

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week One Analysis
Post by bgsgfan on Aug 29^th, 2003, 10:03pm

First team report of the year, good job.

If you have the time, I would be curious to see your projections for the year for Houston. As you probably know, I am heavily invested with Mack and Bradford.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week One Analysis
Post by Philly on Aug 30^th, 2003, 10:05pm

Good analysis... looks just about right.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week One Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Sep 2^nd, 2003, 5:13pm

on 08/29/03 at 22:03:47, bgsgfan wrote:

If you have the time, I would be curious to see your projections for the year for Houston.

Obviously, annual predictions are hard to do given injuries and the like, but the Texans are a pretty stable team:

David Carr - 2,900 yards passing, 18 TDs, 16 INTs; 200 yards rushing, 2 TDs.
Stacey Mack - 1,000 yards rushing, 6 TDs; 200 yards receiving, 2 TDs
Tony Hollings - 200 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 400 yards receiving, 1 TD
Corey Bradford - 60 catches, 900 yards, 6 TDs
Andre Johnson - 50 catches, 700 yards, 4 TDs
Jabar Gaffney - 30 catches, 300 yards, 1 TD
Billy Miller (TE) - 50 catches, 400 yards, 4 TDs

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week One Analysis
Post by StegRock on Sep 2^nd, 2003, 5:30pm

on 09/02/03 at 17:13:19, Jetdoc wrote:

Stacey Mack - 1,000 yards rushing, 6 TDs; 200 yards receiving, 2 TDs (8 Total TD's)

[smiley=nono.gif]

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week One Analysis
Post by bgsgfan on Sep 2^nd, 2003, 8:29pm

I think the Mack numbers are good. He should be the featured back, not part of a RBBC. We know from his Jacksonville days that he can play. Houston wants to be a ball control offense.

I actually projected him with 100 more total yards and half a TD more (don't ask me how he will score half a TD - its a projection thing).

Surprised to see the Bradford projection. I actually have him projected lower, but liked him enough that I have him in a BUNCH of leagues.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week One Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Sep 3^rd, 2003, 10:57am

on 09/02/03 at 17:30:16, StegRock wrote:

[smiley=nono.gif]

I'm still confused by this, Steg.

James Allen plus Jonathan Wells generated a combined 1,050 yards rushing, 350 yards receiving, and 3 combined TDs. And that was behind one of the worst offensive lines in NFL history.

You gotta expect that the Texans will improve their rushing attack SOME in 2003 over 2002, which leads to the above extrapolated numbers. Unless you believe that Hollings will break out and steal more carries away from Mack...which I doubt for 2003. The passing attack has improved, the offensive line has improved, and I argue that the rushing attack has improved.

I believe the projections above are realistic and are very attainable for Mack and Houston.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week One Analysis
Post by BarnabyWilde on Sep 3^rd, 2003, 11:36am

Jetdoc,

If it's any consolation, I agree with your Mack numbers. He is a big upgrade over last year's running game.

I just don't think Steg is a big Mack (not the hamburger Big Mac [smiley=spchef.gif] ) fan.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week One Analysis
Post by StegRock on Sep 3^rd, 2003, 4:25pm

on 09/03/03 at 10:57:33, Jetdoc wrote:

I believe the projections above are realistic and are very attainable for Mack and Houston.

I'm not saying that they're not "attainable"; I'm intimating that they're not "likely". If I were to do my proverbial "windows" on Mack, your projections would be on the high end. Hell, I think 1,100 yards rushing for him is possible, but I also think that 650 yards rushing is just as possible. I just don't see yours as an "average" assessment; it's an "optimistic" one.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week One Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Sep 9^th, 2003, 10:06am

on 08/29/03 at 11:15:40, Jetdoc wrote:

Miami 34, Houston 13

Houston 21, Miami 20

Wow, was I surprised by Houston's performance (or rather Miami's crappy performance) on Sunday. An excellent surprise win for the Texans, which I'm sure shocked all of the NFL. Miami and Wannestadt (sp?) have to be under a ton of pressure now for coming into a game so unprepared. Look for Miami to have a monster game next week, and look for New Orleans to be prepared for the Texans as they lick their wounds from a terrible performance against Seattle.

on 08/29/03 at 11:15:40, Jetdoc wrote:

David Carr - 180 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT; 40 yards rushing, 0 TDs.

David Carr - 266 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INT; 2 yards rushing, 0 TDs.

Carr really impressed me with his performance this week against an excellent Miami defense. This may increase my projections for him a bit, but I'll wait to revise those until he faces another good defense that is prepared for him. Overall, in a normal point system (1 pt/20 yards passing and 1 pt/10 yards rushing), I hit Carr's fantasy points on the money this week.

on 08/29/03 at 11:15:40, Jetdoc wrote:

Stacey Mack - 70 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 20 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Stacey Mack - 89 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 6 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Another prediction dead on, with total yards almost identical to Mack's actual performance. Mack looked impressive against one of the best rush D's in the NFL - the improvements on the offensive line and the addition of a bonafide passing attack is showing in Mack's rushing. It's nice seeing a guy that can knock defenders down and not go down like a sack of potatoes when someone breathes on him wrong. Steg - fear the reaper!

on 08/29/03 at 11:15:40, Jetdoc wrote:

Tony Hollings - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 40 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Domanick Davis - 36 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 0 yards receiving, 0 TDs

I have absolutely no idea why Hollings didn't get the third down carries for the Texans - there were no reports that his knee was flaring up. Davis getting the rock was a HUGE surprise as well - this rookie missed almost all of the preseason with a broken hand. It'll be very interesting to see how the backup RB situation develops in Houston but, for the most part, Mack established in preseason and Week 1 that he is the main show in Houston.

on 08/29/03 at 11:15:40, Jetdoc wrote:

Jonathan Wells - great on special teams and warming the bench.

He is dead to me.

on 08/29/03 at 11:15:40, Jetdoc wrote:

Corey Bradford - 4 catches, 30 yards, 0 TDs

Corey Bradford - 2 catches, 85 yards, 1 TD

Go Corey Go! Some sites (not to mention any names - cough - rototimes) stated that Bradford would be benched for Jabar Gaffney this week. I have no idea where they got their information. Of course, all of Bradford's stats came on his 70+ yard TD reception. This may be a sign of things to come - Bradford's strength in Green Bay was his playmaking, deep threat ability. And with Johnson being the "possession" receiver, Bradford may see more of these long bombs on a regular basis. A little scary to be a starter, but will produce good stats overall nonetheless.

on 08/29/03 at 11:15:40, Jetdoc wrote:

Andre Johnson - 3 catches, 40 yards, 0 TDs

Andre Johnson - 6 catches, 76 yards, 0 TDs

This was the breakout of the rookie WR's like the league hasn't seen before - both Johnson and Charles Rogers had VERY good Week 1's for rookie WR's. You can expect more of this from Johnson's possession build, but I wouldn't expect high TD production until later in the season when he fully grasps how to get DB's off of him.

on 08/29/03 at 11:15:40, Jetdoc wrote:

Jabar Gaffney - 2 catches, 20 yards, 0 TDs

Jabar Gaffney - 3 catches, 70 yards, 0 TDs

Gaffney was a real surprise this week, getting a lot of time in the slot. Gaffney still isn't a valid fantasy option, but it's good to see that they haven't abandoned him for Bradford/Johnson.

on 08/29/03 at 11:15:40, Jetdoc wrote:

Billy Miller (TE) - 4 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD

Billy Miller - 3 catches, 20 yards, 0 TDs

Well, Miller's TD catch went to Bradford this week. It does concern me that Carr is looking more to his WR's (especially Johnson) when he's in trouble, versus his tendencies in 2002 to go to Miller as his safety valve. This may not be a good sign for Miller owners for 2003 - keep a close eye on this situation.