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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Bengals Week One Analysis by KKFL
        
(Message started by: BarnabyWilde on Sep 4^th, 2003, 12:40pm)

Title: Bengals Week One Analysis by KKFL
Post by BarnabyWilde on Sep 4^th, 2003, 12:40pm

Got this in an email and thought I'd share it, since the Bengals are my favorite AFC team. Enjoy.

CINCINNATI BENGALS VS. DENVER BRONCOS - September 03, 2003

The Bengals begin the regime of Carlson Palmer and Marvin Lewis this week but do fantasy owners really care about that? One's a rookie QB who is not even starting and the other one's a head coach. Our questions are: Is QB Jon Kitna worthy of starting and will Chad Johnson's left ankle be 100 percent by kickoff? Will Corey Dillon have an "on" game this week? Let's find out.

PASSING MATCH UP - QUARTERBACKS
Jon Kitna has earned the trust of his teammates and this being his third year with the team, his experience and knowledge of the offense gives the Bengals the best chance to win this year. However, he's a streaky passer who has a tendency to force passes. Once he cracked the starting lineup, he started 12 games and posted pretty decent numbers down the stretch. He ended the season with 3,178 passing yards and 20 TDs (16 pass, 4 rush) but did have 16 INTs. He showed versatility with his feet as one can see with the 4 TDs.

Kitna has some past history against the Broncos, but that was way back in 2000 when he was the starting Seattle Seahawks QB and was regularly playing Denver in the AFC West division. It might be worth noting that Kitna threw for 298 yards, three TDs and three INTs in a Week 15 contest that year. Personnel have changed for the Broncos since then, and Kitna is now with the Bengals.

Reaching the end zone through the air last season against the Broncos was not an easy task. Denver allowed just 15 touchdowns (tied for 2nd with St. Louis) passing and 2 TDs rushing to the QB position in 2002. However, in the yardage category, the Broncos were not sharp, giving up 233 yards (passing/rushing) per game to the QB position. They were in the middle of the pack (ranked 14th).

While Kitna is worthy of a fantasy roster spot as a No. 2 QB, he's a weak play against the Broncos and should be on your bench.

Shane Matthews is the No. 2 backup, while rookie Carson Palmer is the future of the Bengals. For keeper leagues, Palmer is the only one with any value for a roster spot right now. However, neither one should be considered for your fantasy starting lineup.

RUSHING MATCH UP - RUNNING BACKS Anyone remember the last time Corey Dillon went up against Denver, especially at home? Dillon ended up running his way into the record books with a 272-yard performance and two touchdowns to boot during a Week 8 battle in the 2000 season.

It's a given that Dillon will not achieve those marks this Sunday. He hasn't faced the Broncos since that record-setting game, and not to mention he's one of the most hit-and-miss running backs out there. However, there is not a reason why you should keep him out of your starting lineup this week.

Dillon was utilized 376 times last year, 35 percent of the offense, including 52 plays inside the red zone with 16 plays inside the five yard line. That bodes well as head coach Marvin Lewis stated he wants to pound the ball and control the clock when necessary.

One solid reason is that Denver was terrible against the run (141.1 yards per game, ranked 28th) and gave up more rushing touchdowns (21) than any other team in 2002. This means that Dillon should be a strong play against the Broncos. That stated; we'd be remiss not to point out that 4 of the TDs came against the Kansas City Chiefs and skews this. However, they were also susceptible to the Dolphins, Chargers, Raiders and Colts. This means a solid RB can run on them.

Outside of Dillon, there really isn't a good option to rely on at running back. Dillon is usually pretty durable, so guys like Brandon Bennett and Rudi Johnson haven't had a chance to showcase themselves. Because of his past history, Bennett would not be a bad choice for a roster spot, but only as a backup to Dillon. Bennett has averaged 78.5 touches in the past four years and scored a grand total of five touchdowns, but he hasn't reached the end zone in two seasons. At this time, Bennett or Johnson should not be considered for your fantasy lineup. For the record, Bennett was utilized 58 times last season, five percent of the offense while Johnson was utilized 27 times, 3 percent of the offense. Obviously this is not enough to even consider using them in a fantasy roster.

At the fullback position, Chris Edmonds played in eight games last year, but had zero receptions and that was at tight end. Jeremi Johnson is only a rookie drafted for his strong blocking skills. Neither Edmonds nor Johnson have any fantasy value at this time and should not even be on a roster ... unless you're a long-time suffering Bengals fan and want that tradition to continue with your fantasy team. Then owning these two players would be key!

RECEIVING MATCH UP PART I - WIDE RECEIVERS
Chad Johnson has emerged as a solid option in fantasy football. This season, Johnson has set a goal of 1,800 receiving yards, which is practically insane. Only one receiver came within 400 yards of that mark last year and that was Indianapolis Colts WR Marvin Harrison. It is worth noting, however, that in five of his final eight games last season, Johnson reached the 100-yard plateau - coming on strong in the second half. But in order to reach his goal of 1,800, he must keep that production going and then some for 16 weeks. We're talking the Bengals here, not the 49ers or Colts or Vikings!

Johnson was targeted 141 times last year, 13 percent of the offense with 17 targets in the red zone. Surprisingly that included 6 plays in the red zone which is horrible when you consider he didn't convert any into TDs. However, Johnson is the best fantasy option at receiver for the Bengals and is a strong play against the Denver defense this week.

The Broncos' secondary is young and vulnerable to a speed guy like Johnson. More than likely, he'll be matched up against Pro Bowl CB Deltha O'Neal, but don't let that scare you away from Johnson. O'Neal was inconsistent towards the late stages of last season, and that play contributed to the Broncos' defense allowing six receiving touchdowns in the last four weeks of the season.

Johnson should be considered, at best, as your top option. As a strong play this week, Johnson can be no worse than your No. 2 fantasy option this week.

As the No. 2 receiving option in this offense, Peter Warrick is perhaps overlooked, especially with the emerging Johnson. Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis would like to get Warrick more touches this year, which is good news for Warrick owners. Last season, Warrick fell short of his 2001 season in receptions (70 in 2001; 53 in 2002), but was a more frequent visitor to the end zone.

Warrick was targeted 91 times, 9 percent of the offense, including 6 plays in the red zone and 3 inside the five which culminated in 1 TD. He was able to work some magic when given the opportunity!

With the addition of a tall, speed receiver in rookie Kelley Washington, it should open up the offense for Warrick. However, with the focus on Johnson, Warrick is considered a weak play and should be considered as your No. 3 option this week. He'll see limited opportunities but is good enough that he'll make decent use of them.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh is considered a possession receiver and was consistent in catching the ball last season. However, from a fantasy football standpoint, he averaged only 2.5 touches per game and only reached the end zone one time in 2002. As of now, you have a better chance of spelling his last name right than he does of being inserted into your fantasy lineup. He was only targeted 69 times last season, 6 percent of the offense and only 6 plays inside the red zone, with 1 inside the five. You add only 1 TD last season and we're talking a fantasy free agent!

Johnson, Warrick and eventually Washington will be the main receivers of this offense, so Houshmandzadeh is not a good option for a roster spot right now much less as a starter on your fantasy team!

Washington is only a rookie and has great athletic skills to play in the NFL, but for now, he's a backup at the No. 2 receiver spot behind Warrick. Washington is not a bad choice for keeper leagues at this time, but he should not be in your starting lineup until he shows he can play in the league.

Lawrence Hamilton and Adam Zeisel... who? These guys have no fantasy value and should not even be tying up a roster spot, unless you're playing in 32-team leagues or something.

Overall, the Broncos were tough in yardage to the WR position, allowing 2,033 for the season, for fifth best in the league. They were equally tough in TDs allowed with only 11, (tied for third best in the league). Granted this contradicts the Chad Johnson but you have to look at how the team ended at times as well as their overall numbers. While they were strong, they did have their moments of "beatability" last year.

Title: Re: Bengals Week One Analysis by KKFL
Post by Philly on Sep 4^th, 2003, 1:33pm

Just as a note, TJ Houshmandzadeh was carted off the field from practice yesterday - I didn't see an update on his condition. This should help Johnson and Warrick fantasy-wise a little bit.

Title: Re: Bengals Week One Analysis by KKFL
Post by BarnabyWilde on Sep 5^th, 2003, 9:27am

This right off the Bengals Official Website:

Looks like a pulled hammie...

The Bengals are going to find out a lot about rookie receiver Kelley Washington right now, and maybe a little bit about Lawrence Hamilton.

Both caught long touchdown passes against the Colts in last Friday's pre-season finale, but now they find themselves going the distance as the only backups to Chad Johnson and Peter Warrick for Sunday's game against the Broncos after T.J. Houshmandzadeh went down with a hamstring pull in Wednesday's practice.