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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Houston Texans - Week Two Analysis
        
(Message started by: Jetdoc on Sep 11^th, 2003, 2:26pm)

Title: Houston Texans - Week Two Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Sep 11^th, 2003, 2:26pm

The Bad News Bears of the NFL pulled a huge upset (the Houston Chronicle called it one of the top ten upsets in the City of Houston's history) last week against the heavily favored Dolphins.

Now, the Texans face the New Orleans Saints, who were embarassed last week in Seattle. Those two points add up to DISASTER for the Texans this week, since the Saints will be (a) out for revenge and (b) prepared for the Texans, unlike the Fins were.

That and the fact that the Texans have not put together two wins in a row in their limited history spells a Texan loss for Week 2. From a FF standpoint, however, the Texans should do very well against a suspect New Orleans D.

QB

David Carr had a surprisingly excellent week last week against a very good Miami pass rush and a good Miami secondary. The long ball, as usual, helped Carr, but the surprising factor was the fact that Carr was not sacked once in the entire game. The fewest times that Carr was sacked in any game in 2002 was two times. That says alot about how much the offensive line and rushing attack of the Texans have improved in 2003. Look for Carr to have a very solid week against a Saint secondary that basically was shut down after the first half of the game last week because Seattle had built a 3 TD lead. Still not my choice of starters, but you can rely on him in a pinch this week.

David Carr - 250 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INTs; 10 yards rushing, 0 TDs

RB

Ahem...Stacey Mack. Mack had a very solid game last week against a good Miami run D. More importantly, Mack dispelled any myths that Tony Hollings would take over his role as starting tailback - Mack is running like Bettis did in his early years, bowling over would-be tacklers and carrying them a couple of extra yards. Look for Mack to have a noteworthy performance against a Saint defense that allowed Alexander 100+ yards on the ground last week. Hollings may not even be on the active roster this week, but you can expect that Davis may get a few third down touches given his explosive showing last week. If you have Mack this week and don't have an entrenched starter, I would heavily consider him for either your #2 RB or a flex position this week.

Stacey Mack - 100 yards rushing, 1 TD; 10 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Domanick Davis - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 20 yards receiving, 0 TDs

WR

Is a three-headed monster appearing in Houston. Andre Johnson is obviously entrenched as the possession WR, but Corey Bradford (who we all hoped would be the solid #2) split some time last week with Gaffney. Bradford still lined up in most two WR sets, but more often in the three WR sets, Carr looked towards Gaffney instead of Bradford. Bradford is quickly becoming the Quincy Morgan of the Texans - he either catches a 50 yard pass for a TD or will have 2-3 catches for less than 10 yards a piece. I still like Bradford, but that scares me a bit in deciding whether to start him or not. Johnson REALLY surprised me with his ability to step into the possession role so early in the season...he may be someone to watch and may be a force later in the season. Overall, I predict a very productive week for the Texans' wideouts, but I would be a little leery in starting any of them for risk alone.

Andre Johnson - 5 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD
Corey Bradford - 3 catches, 70 yards, 0 TDs
Jabar Gaffney - 3 catches, 40 yards, 0 TDs
Billy Miller (TE) - 4 catches, 30 yards, 0 TDs

K/D

Kris Brown had a career game last week, but I'd be leery of starting him on a regular basis. If you have a more predictable kicker, I'd lean towards him. I also wouldn't start the Texans D against a team looking to prove that last week was a fluke.

Overall

I predict that the Texans will put up a good fight this week, but in the end will fall to a Saints team that is ready for the Texans...

New Orleans 27, Texans 20

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Two Analysis
Post by BarnabyWilde on Sep 12^th, 2003, 9:26am

Once again, great job Doc!! [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Two Analysis
Post by StegRock on Sep 12^th, 2003, 1:14pm

I actually think the Texans might win this game over the soon-to-be sliding and in-disarray Saints. Think year two Jacksonville/Carolina.

[smiley=texan.gif] - 24
[smiley=priest.gif] - 23

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Two Analysis
Post by muzz on Sep 16^th, 2003, 9:14am

Gaffney looks to be coming into his own in his 2nd yr, has had 15 balls thrown to him, which he has caught 10 of.....
Unfortunately Bradford is stealing looks from him.
I have Bradford and Gaffney is still available, I usually go with who gets the looks, but Bradford scores ( I hate that kinda WR).
Sux having a guy that gets 5 catches and 1 of them is a TD ( Over 2 games).
I am watching Gaffney close, as he is getting the looks, not Bradford.... I will not have both of them on my team.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Two Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Sep 17^th, 2003, 5:04pm

on 09/11/03 at 14:26:27, Jetdoc wrote:

David Carr - 250 yards passing, 1 TD, 0 INTs; 10 yards rushing, 0 TDs

David Carr - 213 yards passing, 0 TDs, 2 INTs; 14 yards rushing, 1 TD

Well, the Saints performed a lot better on defense than I gave them credit for after watching them against Seattle. Carr had a stellar first half, but then the Saints switched gears and seemed to rattle the 2nd year QB a little - combining for 5 sacks on him after a week where he wasn't sacked at all. Carr's rushing TD made up for some of his deficiency in the passing arena, but probably not enough for most fantasy owners this week.

on 09/11/03 at 14:26:27, Jetdoc wrote:

Stacey Mack - 100 yards rushing, 1 TD; 10 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Domanick Davis - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 20 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Stacey Mack - 31 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 0 yards receiving

Domanick Davis - 23 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 26 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Man, I really blew this one on Mack. At least I nailed Davis, right? Seriously - the New Orleans offense, which looked relatively ineffective against the Seattle rushing attack in Week 1 came back with a vengenance and shut down the Texans' rushing attack all day. Concerns about the offensive line have now popped up again given the five sacks that Carr incurred as well...I wonder if it is the breakdown of the running attack that caused the sacks, or vice versa. Either way, the Houston ground game is something to stay away from...for the time being.

on 09/11/03 at 14:26:27, Jetdoc wrote:

Andre Johnson - 5 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD
Corey Bradford - 3 catches, 70 yards, 0 TDs
Jabar Gaffney - 3 catches, 40 yards, 0 TDs
Billy Miller (TE) - 4 catches, 30 yards, 0 TDs

Andre Johnson - 5 catches, 71 yards, 0 TDs
Corey Bradford - 2 catches, 43 yards, 0 TDs
Jabar Gaffney - 5 catches, 61 yards, 0 TDs
Billy Miller - 2 catches, 11 yards, 0 TDs

I was fairly accurate on each of the above receivers and how they would be utilized, except for Johnson's TD, of course. Gaffney has now entrenched himself as the Houston #2 wideout as Bradford has relegated himself to a deep threat. My Bradford projections have now tanked due to this unforseen replacement (there wasn't even a hint of it in preseason), but Gaffney's and Johnson's value is rising accordingly as they are seeing equal looks.

on 09/11/03 at 14:26:27, Jetdoc wrote:

New Orleans 27, Texans 20

I was hoping the Texans would make the game more competitive, but the Saints just blew them away in the second half (it was actually Houston 10, New Orleans 7 at the end of the first half). I figured the Saints would come back with a vengenance in Week 2 after the Seattle embarassment, but even the extent of their whuppin' impressed me.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Two Analysis
Post by DirkDiggler on Sep 18^th, 2003, 12:17pm

on 09/17/03 at 17:04:47, Jetdoc wrote:

JetDoc--

What do you mean as "entrenched as #2" for Gaffney? Is he listed on Depth charts as #2? I have not seen that yet. I By looking at the numbers, it does not seem he is too far ahead of Bradford. Do you think he and Bradford will switch roles off and on all season?

Any insight would be greatly appreciated.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Two Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Sep 18^th, 2003, 12:55pm

Watching both Texans games thus far, in simple two WR sets (with a TE and a fullback), the Texans have been lining up Gaffney opposite Johnson.

The Texans usually run 3 WR sets, however, and Bradford will come into the slot, where I believe he is most comfortable.

That is why Gaffney is getting more catches than Bradford this year (8 to Bradford's 4)...he's on the field more. Bradford gets the deeper looks, though (Bradford seems to be running nothing but fly patterns and deep crossing routes), which makes his yardage similar to Gaffney.

My projections were thinking that Bradford would be on the field in both the two and three WR sets, and as a result he'd get more longball opportunities. The emergence of Gaffney in the two WR sets cuts down Bradford's potential...I'll watch again this week to see if that changes.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Two Analysis
Post by DirkDiggler on Sep 18^th, 2003, 8:44pm

Jetdoc--

Thanks for the clarification. I was interested because I personally like that offense. I just picked up Gaffney in a keeper league.

I think Houston will burst out before the end of the year. And if not this year, definitely next. They still need to upgrade that O-line, but it much inproved from last year.