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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
        
(Message started by: Jetdoc on Oct 10^th, 2003, 1:37pm)

Title: Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Oct 10^th, 2003, 1:37pm

The Houston Texans face the Houston Oilers this week, in one of the true rivalries of the Texans. Unfortunately for the Texans, the Titans and Steve McNair are on a roll, but have lost the past two games by a very narrow margin. The Titans will be looking to assert their offensive and defensive superiority this week and claim a much needed win.

QB

David Carr is getting more comfortable as the leader of the Texans each week, which has shown in his improving fantasy numbers. This week, he goes against a stout Tennessee defense that is in the top ten defenses in the NFL. Unfortunately, they are in the botton ten defenses in the NFL when it comes to pass defense. That should mean solid productivity from Carr again this week.

David Carr - 230 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT; 10 yards rushing, 0 TDs

RB

The main question everyone wants to know is "When will Stacey Mack be supplanted as starter?" From everything I'm hearing in Houston, Mack is still (and will remain) starting tailback in Houston. The catch - only in TE formations. Domanick Davis has excelled due to his work ethic in the Houston backfield, and has almost completely replaced Mack in the three wideout sets in Houston. Capers has shown a tendency to run the three wideout set more in recent weeks, which probably indicates that he will only expand that offense in the future. That is bad for Mack owners - he may be technically "starting", but if Capers goes to three wideouts 50-60% of all plays, Mack may be the odd man out in a RBBC. That's not good for ANY owner of a RB in Houston. Hollins may also see some spot duty this week. I really don't like any Houston RB this week, given the RBBC and the fact that Tennessee has one of the top run D's in the league.

Stacey Mack - 40 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 0 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Domanick Davis - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 20 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Tony Hollings - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 10 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Jonathan Wells - probably inactive due to Capers' philosophy of keeping only three active tailbacks.

WRs

The Texans trio should continue to build on their previous success as they continue to gel as a unit and with Carr's timing. Andre Johnson is a bonafide #2 WR in any fantasy system. Gaffney and Bradford COMBINED put up decent numbers, but you never know which of the two will get the stats any given week. As a result, they are not fantasy options at this point. If Miller is still on your roster, you have a valuable spot wasted at this point.

Andre Johnson - 7 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD
Jabar Gaffney - 4 catches, 50 yards, 0 TDs
Corey Bradford - 2 catches, 40 yards, 0 TDs
Billy Miller (TE) - 2 catches, 10 yards, 0 TDs

Overall, I expect the Oilers to win by a substantial margin....

Oilers 34, Texans 16

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
Post by BarnabyWilde on Oct 10^th, 2003, 5:45pm

Great job Doc. [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

What do you think of Hollings long term value?

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Oct 11^th, 2003, 1:09am

on 10/10/03 at 17:45:23, BarnabyWilde wrote:

What do you think of Hollings long term value?

The general consensus in Houston is that Mack is out after this season.

Hollings may get some looks towards the end of the season, but he will by no means be inserted into the starting role.

Domanick Davis has proved himself to this point, but he's also dreadfully undersized. The Texans drafted him as a special teams and third down back, so I would expect he would stay that way.

Long-term (i.e. in a Dynasty league or deep keeper league), Hollings is a decent gamble. He won't be the undisputed feature back in Houston in 2003 or probably in 2004, but in 2005 and beyond, he might be the real deal. Houston has to repair their offensive line first before Hollings really has any valid starting fantasy value.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Oct 12^th, 2003, 10:37am

Update: just heard on local Houston radio that Wells will probably be listed as inactive for this week's game. Hollings may see a few carries this week, as a result.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Oct 13^th, 2003, 10:16am

on 10/10/03 at 13:37:30, Jetdoc wrote:

David Carr - 230 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT; 10 yards rushing, 0 TDs

David Carr - 371 yards passing :o , 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 0 yards rushing, 0 TDs

A career day for Mr. Carr. I knew that he'd have to pass and that he'd have success against the Titans bad pass D, but COME ON! The long bomb to Corey Bradford really helped his stats this week, but his 3 INTs really worries me.

on 10/10/03 at 13:37:30, Jetdoc wrote:

Stacey Mack - 40 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 0 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Domanick Davis - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 20 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Tony Hollings - 20 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 10 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Stacey Mack - 13 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 6 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Domanick Davis - 59 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 70 yards receiving, 0 TDs

Tony Hollings - 19 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 19 yards receiving, 0 TDs

The story this week - the Texans got behind REALLY early, and went to the the three WR set much earlier than usual. This may be an abomination BUT...Capers has been ready to abandon the TE set earlier and earlier each week. It may get to the point where Capers goes to a run-n-shoot philosophy to capitalize on his true talent on offense (his QB and WR's) and to compensate for his mediocre offensive line. That may mean that Mack will see more time on the bench and Davis will get the bulk of the carries (with some spot duty for Hollings). I'll be paying close attention to this in Houston this week...Davis may be a valid fantasy RB if this occurs.

on 10/10/03 at 13:37:30, Jetdoc wrote:

Andre Johnson - 7 catches, 100 yards, 1 TD
Jabar Gaffney - 4 catches, 50 yards, 0 TDs
Corey Bradford - 2 catches, 40 yards, 0 TDs
Billy Miller (TE) - 2 catches, 10 yards, 0 TDs

Andre Johnson - 2 catches, 49 yards, 0 TDs
Jabar Gaffney - 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 TDs
Corey Bradford - 5 catches, 127 yards, 1 TD
Billy Miller (TE) - 6 catches, 47 yards, 0 TDs

Well, Corey Bradford was the hot hand this week, snagging a couple of deep balls from Carr as the Titans' secondary wasn't able to keep up with his speed. I was really surprised how underutilized Johnson was in this game...he had some open looks, and Carr tended to dump the ball off to Miller and Davis instead. The Texans were facing nickel packages all game (including many, many blitzes), so this probably was the cause as Johnson didn't have time to establish his route. The quick slants are easier to complete when under quick pressure...and these routes are Bradford's specialty. I wouldn't count on Corey producing these numbers week in, week out.

on 10/10/03 at 13:37:30, Jetdoc wrote:

Oilers 34, Texans 16

Man, I'm getting REALLY close in my scores...

Titans 38, Texans 17

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
Post by DirkDiggler on Oct 13^th, 2003, 4:39pm

Jet Doc--

Thanks for the analysis. I read your report every week to get the inside track on the Texans.

Keep up the good work and I look forward to your take on the running back situation. I just don't see the Texans giving the RB job to Davis.......

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
Post by ColaSteeler on Oct 14^th, 2003, 6:28pm

Jetdoc,

I'm seriously thinking about picking Carr up to rotate with Brady week to week. I'm only allowed to have 2 QBs on my roster, and Warner is still sitting on my bench (waiting to see which FA will produce more consistently). Out of the available FA, Carr has had the best fantasy stats so far.

Carr, Q. Carter, Brees, Vinny, Fiedler, Leftwich, Couch/Holcombe, Blake, Kitna, Harrington, Dellhome, Boller and Kordell are the FAs available.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
Post by Noey21 on Oct 14^th, 2003, 6:59pm

I think Carr would be wise. At worst a few weeks down the line and you make another change. The way Bulger is playing don't count on Warner getting in.

Also Carr seems to get a long td alot which really helps counteract some of those int's. 300 yards doesn't hurt either.

Carr, Leftwich, and Blake are probably the other ones with a chance at large production games by looking at their offenses. Plus knowing that their is a good chance they will be behind a decent amount of the time.

GL in whatever you choose.

I am a pleasantly surprised David Carr FF owner.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
Post by Philly on Oct 15^th, 2003, 9:07am

on 10/14/03 at 18:28:36, ColaSteeler wrote:

I think Carr can be a decent fantasy producer (300+ yards against Miami...) but if you get penalized heavily for INTs, then he could be a big liability.

Of the FAs available, I really like Kitna. He's fairly consistent and has an excellent WR corps. I also think Leftwich will be a good backup for you. He's got Jimmy Smith to throw to and Fred Taylor to take some pressure off the pass rush.

Nonetheless, there are probably 9 or 10 of those free agents I would rather have than Warner.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
Post by ColaSteeler on Oct 15^th, 2003, 3:10pm

Yeah, I did realize right after the bye that Warner didn't have a shot at regaining the starting QB position, however, I didn't want to rush to pick up a backup who was having a good first couple of weeks, and could just as easily cool off. With Brady's bye coming up, it's time to pick someone up, and I've had a better chance to evaluate the FAs.

We only get -2 points per INT, and long TDs score more than the usual 6 points. These make Carr a nice option, if he can continue at the same pace. Carter/Kitna/Blake all have had up and down games, and I'm looking for more consistency. Carr should have a nice game this week, and since Brady is playing against Miami, I think it's time I spent my $2 and make Mr. Carr my backup, and start him in place of Brady this week.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
Post by Noey21 on Oct 15^th, 2003, 3:38pm

Remember Miami gives up yards. Not many points though.

Title: Re: Houston Texans - Week Six Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Oct 16^th, 2003, 2:37pm

Cola - I just posted my Week 7 analysis - I like Carr in the long run, but I don't like him this week against the Jets, who are really, really good against the pass.

Dirk - this week should say alot about the RB situation in Houston. Davis is seeing time with the first team offense in practice, but the Jets really are weak at the run when it comes to power backs. If Mack doesn't see significant time pounding it between the tackles this week, you can probably stick a fork in him, and Davis will officially be the man. Personally, I think Mack rises to the occassion and rebounds with a good game.