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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Vikings - Week Seven Analysis
        
(Message started by: captainpurple on Oct 16th, 2003, 2:19pm)
Title: Vikings - Week Seven Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Oct 16th, 2003, 2:19pm
Let me start by saying I hope to provide this analysis weekly with as much impartiality as my purple bleeding fingers will allow!

The Vikings will look to jump up early in this one with Beurlein at the helm for Denver.  I don't believe SB can win this game throwing, and if MIN can pin their ears back and come after him, he'll end up short-arming some passes and getting picked.  It's been OLeary's philosophy all year, and is the main reason MIN leads the NFL in thefts.  

Getting to SB could be easier said than done; however, as DEN has only allowed 9 sacks this year, and MIN is not showing the ability to get to the QB with 4.  This could, nay, will open up Shannon Sharpe, who I think has the biggest day for Denver.  Look for 80+ yds and a score.  

As I've stated, I think MIN comes out gunning in this one to try to get up and cause SB to start throwing.  Lenny Walls gets the unenviable task of lining up opposite The Freak this week.  He'll handle it better than ATL and SF did, but he'll still require FS help over the top to shut down Moss.  That will leave Nate Burleson and Kelly Campbell open on the crossing and shorter routes, probably in man coverage.  Campbell could be a big sleeper this week.  I see Moss and DC hooking up in the red zone for 1TD, but not for a lot of yards and receptions.  Meanwhile, Campbell and Burleson reap the benefits of Moss clearing out half the field to gain most of the passing yards, with Burleson also getting some redzone looks.  

Linehan does a nice job of mixing up the run/pass ratio.  Though I think they come out passing, look for the massive O-line of the Vikes to establish the run by the end of the first half, especially if they have the lead.  The Viking O-line averages 6'6" & 329#, vs a good Denver D-line averaging 6'5" & 293#.  Giving up 40# will take a toll on Denver, and the Viking RBBC should be able to take over by the 4th quarter.

Meanwhile, Denver will have a tough time running Portis at will, and I'm betting they come out throwing to try to open things up for him vs an equally good MIN run D.  Not having Plummer hurts the Broncos in this one as SB just isn't going to come out and torch even the inexperienced MIN secondary.  Some good D and a costly pick puts Denver down early and gets the dome rocking.  20 - 6 by the half, and Denver makes it closer in the 2nd half by using Shannon Sharpe over the middle and Portis on the draw.  SB throws another costly pick in the 4th to seal it.

Forecast

Minnesota 30   Denver 26

Daunte Culpepper - 260 yds, 2TDs, 1INT - Back and sharp as before the Detroit cheap shot, though tosses 1st INT of season
Moe Williams - 75 ru.yds, 1TD - 4th quarter pounds the ball to put it away
Onterrio Smith - 30 ru.yds, 40 rec.yds - spells Moe, but Moe still does the heavy lifting in this one
Randy Moss - 45 yds, 1TD - Will be held in check for most of the game, escapes for 1
Kelly Campbell - 70 yds - Benefits from all the attention on Moss
Nate Burleson - 80 yds, 1TD - See Campbell, though Burleson runs better routes in the RZ
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 20 yds - Al Wilson shuts this guy down
Aaron Elling - 3 FG, 3 XP
D/ST - 2 INT, 2 sacks - Will try to stuff Portis and make SB beat them

Steve Beurlein - 275 yds, 1TD, 2 INT - Nothing spectacular, nothing horrid, couple costly picks
Clinton Portis - 60 ru. yds, 45 rec. yds, 1TD - Great showing for most backs, but a good "contain" job by MIN of your name is Portis
Rod Smith - 60 yds - MIN secondary doesn't have a good answer for him, but Beurlein is QB which hurts
Ashley Lelie - 75 yds - Excellent speed that burns young MIN safeties
Ed McCaffery - 15 yds - Simply not getting the looks anymore
Shannon Sharpe - 80 yds, 1TD - Great matchup vs Claiborne, but lack of QB mobility cost him chance at RZ TD
Jason Elam - 4 FG, 2 XP - Solid as they come.
D/ST 1 INT, 1 sack - Get pressure, but DC is tough to sack.  Will have to try to keep from wearing down by 4th Q.


GO VIKES!
Title: Re: Vikings - Week Seven Analysis
Post by Philly on Oct 16th, 2003, 2:34pm
[smiley=thumbsup.gif] on the analysis.  I hope the game is as exciting as your prediction.  (I have to admit, as a Portis owner, that I am hoping you're wrong with his stats. ;D )  I do own Moe Williams in 3 of my 4 leagues, so a good day by Moe would definitely be appreciated.

These analyses are not easy to do, as I'm sure you now know.  But everyone here appreciates the effort you put into it.
Title: Re: Vikings - Week Seven Analysis
Post by Jetdoc on Oct 16th, 2003, 2:42pm

on 10/16/03 at 14:19:17, captainpurple wrote:
Ed McCaffery - 15 yds - Simply not getting the looks anymore


Actually, I disagree with this.  Last week, Beuerlein seemed to be looking McCaffrey's way most of the time and ignoring the speedster in Lelie.  Not sure if this was because Beuerlein favors the older, more experienced WR's or if he can't toss the long ball that Lelie covets.

Until Plummer returns, I'm staying away from both McCaffrey and Lelie.
Title: Re: Vikings - Week Seven Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Oct 16th, 2003, 4:02pm
Yeah, neither Lelie nor Eazy Ed saw much action last week.  SB completed 17, only 1 to EZ and 1 to Lelie.  Still, EZ only has 7 recs this year, and that doesn't happen from just not getting looks.  He's been aged out of personnel packages too.  And it seems Lelie is the one in on the 2 receiver sets more often than not.

Sharpe and Smith are now getting nearly 50% of the receptions, add Portis and Lelie and that goes up to 75%.  

Combine that with the general feeling that EZ has lost a step, and I just can't see him getting much this week either.  

GO VIKES!
Title: Re: Vikings - Week Seven Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Oct 20th, 2003, 12:55pm

on 10/16/03 at 14:19:17, captainpurple wrote:
The Vikings will look to jump up early in this one with Beurlein at the helm for Denver.  I don't believe SB can win this game throwing, and if MIN can pin their ears back and come after him, he'll end up short-arming some passes and getting picked.  It's been OLeary's philosophy all year, and is the main reason MIN leads the NFL in thefts.  

Money!  SB had major happy feet and probably finishes with 4 picks if not for that gruesome finger injury.


on 10/16/03 at 14:19:17, captainpurple wrote:
Getting to SB could be easier said than done; however, as DEN has only allowed 9 sacks this year, and MIN is not showing the ability to get to the QB with 4.  This could, nay, will open up Shannon Sharpe, who I think has the biggest day for Denver.  Look for 80+ yds and a score.  

Dead on on the #'s, but the TD went to Mike Anderson on a 1Yd toss.  Sharpe had the biggest day for Denver receivers, but Portis did a lot more than I expected him to.


on 10/16/03 at 14:19:17, captainpurple wrote:
As I've stated, I think MIN comes out gunning in this one to try to get up and cause SB to start throwing.  Lenny Walls gets the unenviable task of lining up opposite The Freak this week.  He'll handle it better than ATL and SF did, but he'll still require FS help over the top to shut down Moss.  That will leave Nate Burleson and Kelly Campbell open on the crossing and shorter routes, probably in man coverage.  Campbell could be a big sleeper this week.  I see Moss and DC hooking up in the red zone for 1TD, but not for a lot of yards and receptions.  Meanwhile, Campbell and Burleson reap the benefits of Moss clearing out half the field to gain most of the passing yards, with Burleson also getting some redzone looks.  

NOT!  Moss continues dominating secondaries this year.  No TD, but an honorable mention for that unbelievable lateral!  Meanwhile, Campbell was indeed a good sleeper who should've had 2 TDs if not for a drop in the 4th.  Burleson had a nice catch called back on a penalty, but didn't factor in as much as I thought.  Simply put, until someone proves they can stop The Freak, he's getting the ball.



on 10/16/03 at 14:19:17, captainpurple wrote:
Linehan does a nice job of mixing up the run/pass ratio.  Though I think they come out passing, look for the massive O-line of the Vikes to establish the run by the end of the first half, especially if they have the lead.  The Viking O-line averages 6'6" & 329#, vs a good Denver D-line averaging 6'5" & 293#.  Giving up 40# will take a toll on Denver, and the Viking RBBC should be able to take over by the 4th quarter.

So-so call.  MIN never got the running game going as strongly as I would've thought, only ending up with 80+ yds.  They had 1 drive in the 4th that helped chew up time, but not as effective as I had hoped.


on 10/16/03 at 14:19:17, captainpurple wrote:
Meanwhile, Denver will have a tough time running Portis at will, and I'm betting they come out throwing to try to open things up for him vs an equally good MIN run D.  Not having Plummer hurts the Broncos in this one as SB just isn't going to come out and torch even the inexperienced MIN secondary.  Some good D and a costly pick puts Denver down early and gets the dome rocking.  20 - 6 by the half, and Denver makes it closer in the 2nd half by using Shannon Sharpe over the middle and Portis on the draw.  SB throws another costly pick in the 4th to seal it.

A lot of rambling statements here, but the tone of the game was pretty accurate.  Costly mistakes by SB, and a defensive let down by MIN in the 4th made it a lot closer than it needed to be.   Basically, O'Leary didn't feel Kanell could beat them, and so dropped into a conservative prevent.  Kanell played well and made it waaaayyy to close for my comfort!   Also, I didn't give Portis enough credit.  The kid is solid, and if not for him, this game is a blowout.



on 10/16/03 at 14:19:17, captainpurple wrote:
Forecast

Minnesota 30   Denver 26

Daunte Culpepper - 260 yds, 2TDs, 1INT - Back and sharp as before the Detroit cheap shot, though tosses 1st INT of season
Moe Williams - 75 ru.yds, 1TD - 4th quarter pounds the ball to put it away
Onterrio Smith - 30 ru.yds, 40 rec.yds - spells Moe, but Moe still does the heavy lifting in this one
Randy Moss - 45 yds, 1TD - Will be held in check for most of the game, escapes for 1
Kelly Campbell - 70 yds - Benefits from all the attention on Moss
Nate Burleson - 80 yds, 1TD - See Campbell, though Burleson runs better routes in the RZ
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 20 yds - Al Wilson shuts this guy down
Aaron Elling - 3 FG, 3 XP
D/ST - 2 INT, 2 sacks - Will try to stuff Portis and make SB beat them

Aftercast

Minnesota 28   Denver 20

Daunte Culpepper - 277 yds, 2TDs, 0INT - Pretty dead on here, and thankfully wrong on the pick!
Moe Williams - 42 ru.yds, 50 rec.yds, 1TD - Didn't rush as effectively I thought, and factored into the pass much more than I thought.  
Onterrio Smith - 29 ru.yds - Still not getting as involved as he and Tice lead us to believe he will be.
Randy Moss - 151 yds - Held in check?!  Did I say that?!
Kelly Campbell - 47 yds, 1TD- Could've had 2 sans a drop.
Nate Burleson - 0 yds - Disappeared as Moss dominated.
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 13 yds - Vikes not utilizing the TE much anymore
Aaron Elling - 4 XP - Injury kept him from trying a 50 yarder in the 4th.
D/ST - 3 INT, 5 sacks, 1FR, 1TD - Couldn't stuff Portis but SB/DK still had to try (and couldn't) beat them



on 10/16/03 at 14:19:17, captainpurple wrote:
Steve Beurlein - 275 yds, 1TD, 2 INT - Nothing spectacular, nothing horrid, couple costly picks
Clinton Portis - 60 ru. yds, 45 rec. yds, 1TD - Great showing for most backs, but a good "contain" job by MIN of your name is Portis
Rod Smith - 60 yds - MIN secondary doesn't have a good answer for him, but Beurlein is QB which hurts
Ashley Lelie - 75 yds - Excellent speed that burns young MIN safeties
Ed McCaffery - 15 yds - Simply not getting the looks anymore
Shannon Sharpe - 80 yds, 1TD - Great matchup vs Claiborne, but lack of QB mobility cost him chance at RZ TD
Jason Elam - 4 FG, 2 XP - Solid as they come.
D/ST 1 INT, 1 sack - Get pressure, but DC is tough to sack.  Will have to try to keep from wearing down by 4th Q.


Steve Beurlein - 119 yds, 3 INT - Was definitely horrid.  Almost completely ineffective.
Clinton Portis - 117 ru. yds, 43 rec. yds, 1TD - Still showing why he's a top 3 FF RB.  Still, pretty close on the stat projection.
Rod Smith - 24 yds - MIN secondary didn't need an answer for him, Beurlein hurt and was under a lot more pressure than I anticipated.
Ashley Lelie - 43 yds - Excellent speed still needs someone to throw it downfield, and SB had no time for the deep throws.
Ed McCaffery - DNP
Shannon Sharpe - 79 yds - Pretend that 1 Yd flip to Mike Anderson went to Sharpe, and I'm dead no here.
Jason Elam - 2 FG - Still solid as they come.
D/ST 2 sack - Got some pressure on DC, but let Moss get away for some huge plays.



Great win for a Viking team that continues to get more and more respect.   NYG coming to town next week will be another good defensive test.


GO VIKES!
Title: Re: Vikings - Week Seven Analysis
Post by StegRock on Oct 20th, 2003, 1:10pm
Funny,... while I was on my way out to Denver and had to drop down in Minneapolis, walking from gate to gate (when I made that quick post for you guys on "the Bleachers" sticky thread), I got a picture of myself standing in front of a big lit-up Vikings sign pointing out/at the Broncos game.  Damn it!

Anyway, I will say this, not that my Donkos[smiley=broncofan.gif] [smiley=horse.gif] [smiley=Elway.gif] would have won, but my [smiley=viking.gif] friends are lucky my boys were without their "Plummer Snake". [smiley=yes.gif]

...

In any event, fantastic write-up, cp! [smiley=thumbsup.gif] Thanks for contibuting! [smiley=bow.gif] This is a GREAT addition to the forum! [smiley=yes.gif]
Title: Re: Vikings - Week Seven Analysis
Post by Philly on Oct 20th, 2003, 1:26pm
Pretty good analysis for the first-timer.  You were very close on many of your predictions and had a very good feel for how the game would play out.

I honestly thought the Broncos would win a squeaker, but Bueurlein was much less effective than I thought he'd be.
Title: Re: Vikings - Week Seven Analysis
Post by Skcus Redef 2 on Oct 20th, 2003, 1:41pm
Kudos to Captain Purple [smiley=cheers.gif] on his analysis and his Vikings.  While I am not happy to be posting this today, I will give props when props are due.

I do have to agree with Steg and say that the game would have been different with the Snake but... no sour grapes. The Vikes did beat up SB good (if anyone would like to see the finger, go to http://denver.rockymountainnews.com/art/slides/broncos/2003/101903vikings/5.jpg   -   my pict doesn't do it justice).
Title: Re: Vikings - Week Seven Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Oct 22nd, 2003, 4:43pm
Yowsa!  That was one of those where you peak through your squinted eyes at the replay.   :o


I, of course, had to rewind on Tivo and play it back in slo-mo a few times!   ::)



GO VIKES!


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