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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Patriots ~ Week 9 Analysis
        
(Message started by: bakes781 on Oct 29^th, 2003, 4:50pm)

Title: Patriots ~ Week 9 Analysis
Post by bakes781 on Oct 29^th, 2003, 4:50pm

I was going to wait until after the Pats bye week before I did one of these, but it's MNF. ;D I will do my best to break down my predictions for each offensive player. I am not a stat geek, so I won't pretend to be. However, I will use them occasionally to give reason to my ramblings. So W/O further ado...

ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?

I really don't see any reason to worry about Denver's air attack. Infact, the way I see it we have got to force Denver to make Kanell be the one to beat us. We've done well so far against the run. (76 yards allowed on avg. to RBs) However, this may be our biggest challenge to date this season. Clinton Portis is very quick & if he gets to the outside we're in trouble. He has a 5.2 avg yards per carry, which is 2nd only to Jamal Lewis. Rodney Harrison is going to have to play almost like a LB on MNF. He leads the team with 44 tackles & we can't afford any missed tackles. Offensively, I think we can do what we need to win. I believe Denver's OLBs Gold & Mobley are out. So this should afford Brady plenty of time in the pocket. The running game likely won't be available. But, the backdoor screenplays & the quick hit n' go patterns should be there. These are just as effective as a run play. We can't have any more mistakes on special teams. There have been too many penalties & dropped balls lately. Finally, turnovers are usually the deciding stat in every game. If we can go into half time with a lead then we will look to seal the deal by forcing Kanell into an INT or 2.

Patriots Statistical Breakdown:

Tom Brady ~ 200 yards passing, 1 TD & 1 INT
Kevin Faulk ~ 62 yards rushing, 34 yards receiving
Antowain Smith ~ 22 yards rushing, 1 TD
Troy Brown ~ 80 yards receiving
Deion Branch ~ 50 yards receiving
Bethel Johnson ~ 15 yards receiving
Daniel Graham ~ 21 yards receiving, 1 TD
Adam Vinatieri ~ 2 FGs & 2 PATs

Broncos Statistical Breakdown:

Danny Kanell ~ 150 yards passing, 0 TDs, 2 INTs
Clinton Portis ~ 80 yds rushing, 30 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mike Anderson ~ 15 yards rushing
Rod Smith ~ 40 yards receiving
Ashley Lelie ~ 50 yards receiving
Shannon Sharpe ~ 18 yards receiving
Dwayne Carswell ~ 12 yards receiving
Jason Elam ~ 3 FGs, 1 PAT

FINAL SCORE

PATRIOTS 20
BRONCOS 16

MNF has always been more about the hype surrounding the game rather than the actual game itself. Many times the game turns into a blowout. With the exception of the season opener, I can't recall the last time the Pats got embarrased. Most of our games have been decided by less than 1 score. I would expect the same on Monday night.

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 9 Analysis
Post by DirkDiggler on Oct 29^th, 2003, 6:59pm

Bakes.. thanks for the analysis.

Can you shed some light on the number two back position? Is it going to be Smith or Cloud? If Smith, is Cloud going to continue to be inactive?

Also, is Faulk going to EVER get goal line carries?

Any insight would be apprecaited.

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 9 Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Oct 29^th, 2003, 8:42pm

Thanks for the analysis! I haven't even seen the Pats play this year, so I'm glad to see someone's input to the game.

I've seen Denver though, and I'd be suprised if Sharpe is held to 18 yards again. The 3-4 was quite successful last week in BAL to my suprise, so maybe I'm wrong, but IMO Shanahan MUST get Sharpe the ball for DEN to have any chance at all of winning this one.

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 9 Analysis
Post by bakes781 on Oct 30^th, 2003, 8:29am

Well you maybe right about Sharpe, but I don't fear the passing game of Denver in general. I didn't do extensive research on the Broncos stats. So try not to hold it against me if I'm WAY off. [smiley=dunce.gif] This review is more from a fan perspective than an intellectual one. ;)

As for Cloud & Smith, I only went with Smith b/c Cloud was inactive last week. If I hear any news about the situation I'll let ya know. Belichek will go with who he feels gives us the best chance to win that week. Faulk does appear to have one the primary role, for now.

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 9 Analysis
Post by Philly on Oct 30^th, 2003, 8:42am

Great analysis bakes. Glad to see another one up. I agree that the Pats should win this game as Denver is in trouble without a legit QB.

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 9 Analysis
Post by bakes781 on Nov 3^rd, 2003, 9:34am

UPDATE:

Troy Brown is listed as doubtful.

This is a serious setback for the Pats. However, Deion Branch can fill his role quite well. This also means David Givens will likely get some more action on 3rd & long.

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 9 Analysis
Post by bakes781 on Nov 4^th, 2003, 9:48am

Well I'll tell ya when I heard that Richard Seymour was out I was already preparing my excuses for why the Pats lost last night. The thought going in was they needed to stop the run & w/o our MVP on D available, I felt we had very little chance of doing just that. Then we start the game with 2 turnovers. U know what I think of TOs. This game is over I said to my brother. Then Tom hits Branch with a bomb & suddenly there's life in this team again. Denver had taken away most of the short cuts that the Pats are so accustomed to utilizing as a weapon. So Charlie Weiss called on Brady to go deep & he did that on many occasions last night. The defense was not stellar. We obviously struggled to keep Portis from being a major factor. They ran their offense. The bootlegs & all that was working quite effectively. There was nothing new about what Denver did last night. I know the players had seen those same plays on film. B/C Bellichick is on a local show here & showed us exactly what Denver likes to do. Everyone knows their offense revolves around Portis & yet we failed to stop him. Later on that opened up huge gains in the passing game with the play-action. This was not how BB drew up the gameplan I asure you. & I won't sit here bragging about what a wonderful win that was, b/c we trully stole that one last night. I sure as hell enjoyed every minute of it though. :)

on 10/29/03 at 16:50:37, bakes781 wrote:

Patriots Statistical Breakdown:

Tom Brady ~ 200 yards passing, 1 TD & 1 INT
Kevin Faulk ~ 62 yards rushing, 34 yards receiving
Antowain Smith ~ 22 yards rushing, 1 TD
Troy Brown ~ 80 yards receiving
Deion Branch ~ 50 yards receiving
Bethel Johnson ~ 15 yards receiving
Daniel Graham ~ 21 yards receiving, 1 TD
Adam Vinatieri ~ 2 FGs & 2 PATs

ACTUAL RESULTS:

Tom Brady ~ 350, 3 tds, 1 int (the deep was what won it for us)
Kevin Faulk ~ 20 rush, 52 rec(made some great catches on the winning drive)
Antowain Smith ~ 55 rush, 26 rec(Kevin may have been the starter, but it was Smith who carried the rock)
Troy Brown ~ 0 yards rec(injured)
Deion Branch ~ 107 yards rec, 1 TD(took over Troy's role)
Bethel Johnson ~ 0 yards rec(played on special teams)
Daniel Graham ~ 39 yards rec, 1 TD(pretty good for my 1st go @ this)
David Givens ~ 87 yards rec, 1 BIG TD(pats needed this guy)
Adam Vinatieri ~ 3 FGs & 3 PATs(accurate as always)

on 10/29/03 at 16:50:37, bakes781 wrote:

Broncos Statistical Breakdown:

Danny Kanell ~ 150 yards passing, 0 TDs, 2 INTs
Clinton Portis ~ 80 yds rushing, 30 yds receiving, 1 TD
Mike Anderson ~ 15 yards rushing
Rod Smith ~ 40 yards receiving
Ashley Lelie ~ 50 yards receiving
Shannon Sharpe ~ 18 yards receiving
Dwayne Carswell ~ 12 yards receiving
Jason Elam ~ 3 FGs, 1 PAT

ACTUAL RESULTS:

Danny Kanell ~ 163, 1 td, 1 int(played well enuff to win & ran the offense well)
Clinton Portis ~ 111 yds rush, 20 yds rec, 1 TD(denver fans are scratching their heads as to why they went away from Clinton down the stretch)
Mike Anderson ~ 1 yards rec(non-factor)
Rod Smith ~ 58 yards rec(primary target for Kanell)
Ashley Lelie ~ 22 yards rec(was open on sum but Kanell missed him badly)
Shannon Sharpe ~ 44 yards rec(was more of a factor than i had thought)
Dwayne Carswell ~ 0 yards rec(non-factor)
Jason Elam(left game with injury) ~ 1 FGs, 1 PAT(Knorr filled in)

on 10/29/03 at 16:50:37, bakes781 wrote:

FINAL SCORE

PATRIOTS 20
BRONCOS 16

THE ACTUAL SCORE:
Pats 30
Broncos 26

Never would have thought the Pats could win in a shoot out, but that's exactly what they did. It was a great game(for pats fans). This win gives us a nice cusion going into a MUCH needed bye week. Unfortunatley, for the Broncos they will have no choice but to hold onto that bad taste in their mouthes for 2 of the longest weeks of their lives. This was a game that resembled those of the '01 Super Bowl run. I'd hate to jinx it, but this has been a great season so far. [smiley=fish.gif] is up next & I can't wait. :P

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 9 Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Nov 4^th, 2003, 10:24am

Well done bakes! BB really has this team playing well. They could be the dark horse this year in the AFC! (i.e. no respect or national press to speak of, but winning deep into the playoffs anyway).

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 9 Analysis
Post by Noey21 on Nov 5^th, 2003, 10:51pm

Awesome job Bakes.

Again like you said I think Dnever coached theself out of a win. 1st & 10 with limited time left. Run Portis 3 times chances are he will get 10 yards total and if not worst case senario is the Pats waste all their timeouts and have trouble getting down the field.

GOD DAMN PATRIOTS!!!!!!