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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Vikings - Week 10 Analysis
        
(Message started by: captainpurple on Nov 7th, 2003, 10:43am)
Title: Vikings - Week 10 Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Nov 7th, 2003, 10:43am
Haven't been around much this week as I've been recuperating from Packerweek, which blew bigtime!

Vikes have a very good oppportunity to get back on track with 3 very winnable games @SD, @OAK and vsDET next 3 weeks.  This game is probably more important to Minnesota than San Diego, so give them a slight adrenaline edge.

Recent weeks have shown a huge vulnerability in the Viking defense:  Run wide, pass short over the middle.  Denver did it, NYG did it better, and Packers continued the trend.  Fortunately, this week brings either Brees or Flutie (or both), so the precision passing game won't be as deadly.  

Flutie is a huge wildcard though.  Most of the time you wouldn't worry about a guy making his first start in a year, but his guy is a bigtime sparkplug.  He can scramble and make things happen similar to Brat Farte, who gave the Vikes fits last week.

Also, LT2 is always dangerous, and while I expect the Vikings to go back to the attacking D of the first 6 weeks to see if Flut/ees can beat them, if LT2 starts going off, he could disrupt the entire MIN D game plan.

When the Charger's have the ball...
At his core, I don't think Marty can get too far away from running the ball.  LT gets almost 20 carries/gm for a team that is normally behind, so you know he's getting the ball.  He also sees 6 rec/gm.  Boston creates some matchup problems for anyone, but especially for MIN who's corners are not big enough to handle him.  Marty has to get the play-action going to give Flutie time, and control the clock enough to keep Culpepper and Moss off the field.  If they do, they may eek one out.  I don't like their chances though.

When the Vikings have the ball...
Bennett will see a lot more action this week after looking superb in limited action last week.  SD has a poor run D at best, so he should see a lot of success.  Moe is not relegated to goal-line duty yet, and should also get good touches.  After establishing themselves as one of the best offenses in the league, the Vikings have fallen off in recent weeks, unable to run the ball when they need to.  Teams are super-concentrated on stopping the big play, and the Vikings haven't been able to respond with a consistent, sustained "move-the-chains" attack.  While I think Moss will have a couple big plays, look for the Vikings to try to get that sustained attack going this week.  I anticipate a lot more of Moe and Bennett, and Tice wants Jimmy Kleinsasser (NoDak boy!) to get more action too.  That should foster the longer drives.

Key Matchups
Daunte Culpepper vs himself!
Yeah, maybe I'm a little crazy, but DC has gone from a free-throwing-make-something-happen QB to ultra-conservative.  He had an opportunity to run at least 3 times vs the Pack, but chose to either throw it away, or take a sack.  He's got to find that balance where he can run for the 60-80 yds/gm, as well as throw for 250.  When he finally figures that out and has it coming to him naturally, rather than concentrating so hard on INTs, watch out!

Greg Biekert vs LT2
LT2 is pretty much all you've got to concentrate on vs SD.  Vikings 2nd round pick EJHenderson is going to get more work this week in passing situations to spell the 34yo Biekert, who needs to play better vs the run.  

Bennett vs Edwards/Lassiter
The two top tacklers for SD will need to control Bennett's explosivness.  SD has a young secondary who can play well at times but gives up the big play.  If the Vikes try to control the clock as I've predicted, this matchup will go a long way to determining their success.

The Game
Unfortunately for Charger fans, there isn't much to breakdown about them.  They're going to run LT and pass to give him a rest.  Marty will try to duplicate what has worked vs MIN in the last few weeks, running LT wide and passing short.  SAlexander hurting will hamper that plan, and I don't see the Chargers being very successful.  Flutie will make things happen though, and blow open a full-blown QB controversy in SD.  Vikings should be able to run the ball on SD, as long as McKinnie's ankle doesn't limit him too much.  I look for them to control most of the first half and be up 14-3 by the half.  Second half SD starts going to the air more with Boston over the middle and LT out of the backfield, but I don't think they ever get close in this one as the Vikings coast to a 31-17 win.

Forecast
Minnesota Vikings - 31  San Diego Chargers - 17

Daunte Culpepper - 230 pa.yds & 2TDs, 25 ru.yds & 1TD - Playing too tenatively, needs to run more if it's there.
Moe Williams - 45 ru.yds - Will lose a lot to Bennett this week
Onterrio Smith - 15 ru.yds, 10 rec.yds - Returning kicks, doubtful he sees much else.
Michael Bennett - 85 ru.yds & 1TD, 35 rec.yds - Back for good after this week
Randy Moss - 95 yds & 1TD - Prove you can stop him.
D'wayne Bates - 45 yds - Back in at #2, should see some good looks vs Sammy Davis
Kelly Campbell - zilch - Relegated to 4th receiver
Nate Burleson - 25 yds - 3rd receiver now, won't see much in ball control gameplan.
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 20 rec.yds, 1TD - Forgotten last week, but a gameplan factor this week.
Aaron Elling - 1FG & 4XP - Decent day.
D/ST - 2 INT - Wont catch Flutie for sacks, but should get a couple more picks
 
Doug Flutie - 180 yds, 35 ru.yds, 2INT - Will scramble for some yards
LT2 - 85 ru.yds & 2TDs, 35 rec. yds - Biggest weapon, only weapon
David Boston - 70 yds - Will get some over the middle stuff.
Eric Parker 45 yds - Shouldn't be an NFL #2
Justin Peelle - 30 yds - Over the middle should be open
Steve Christie - 1 FG, 2 XP  
D/ST 1 INT, 1 sack - Long day on the field.


GO VIKES!
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 10 Analysis
Post by BarnabyWilde on Nov 7th, 2003, 8:05pm
Excellent job cap!!

Glad to have your expertise here on the Gridiron!!
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 10 Analysis
Post by Philly on Nov 7th, 2003, 10:20pm
Do you think D'Wayne Bates will have any fantasy value over the last part of the season?  It seemed like he wasn't a threat even when he was in the lineup early in the season - even then Campbell and Burleson seemed to be biting into his numbers.
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 10 Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Nov 8th, 2003, 7:23am
He's not much of a scorer.  He can make some nice possession catches on the sidelines and over the middle.  He's slow, so he's not going to go for a 40yarder +TD very often.  

Burleson was named the #2 by Tice a couple weeks ago, supposedly even if Bates returned.  But neither Burleson nor Campbell did a very good job in the running game and missed hot reads in the passing game too often.  So I think Bates will get the #2 back.  

I really like Kelly Campbell for his big play ability, but he's disappeared the last few weeks.  

Other than Moss, there isn't much to start at receiver in Minny unless you're in a reeeaaally deep league.
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 10 Analysis
Post by Philly on Nov 10th, 2003, 8:45am
Ouch!   :-X
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 10 Analysis
Post by bakes781 on Nov 10th, 2003, 9:35am
Too much Tomlinson & not nearly enuff Bennett.  Watching the game I felt Minnesota was never out of it, but their D had no answer for Flutie Flakes.  He's a local icon around here.  Infact, I work in the very town that Doug grew up in Natick, MA.  He will always be known as a winner.  Your Vikes need to get their act together quickly or things could get ugly.  Moss has been a model citizen to this point but that could change in a heartbeat.  I was watching ESPN the other day & they exposed what was wrong with the Vikes D.  The CBs play back in man covergae while the LBs blitz constantly.  This leaves the intermediate & short game wide open for big gains after the catch.        
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 10 Analysis
Post by steelkings on Nov 10th, 2003, 2:09pm
My best bud is a huge Viking fan. I cant get him to speak right now. all I get out of him is faint squeeks.
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 10 Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Nov 10th, 2003, 6:39pm
It took me until now to even want to look at anything football.   I don't think I'm up for re-analyzing the game yet.  Maybe tomorrow.

[smiley=dejected.gif]
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 10 Analysis
Post by DirkDiggler on Nov 11th, 2003, 12:09am

on 11/10/03 at 18:39:52, captainpurple wrote:
It took me until now to even want to look at anything football.   I don't think I'm up for re-analyzing the game yet.  Maybe tomorrow.

[smiley=dejected.gif]


At least your team is still in first.  After the Eagles game tonight, no one else in that division will even have a winning record.  No need to be upset.

And NOW, GO EAGLES!!!!!  Unbelievable they are in contention for the wild card.  (sorry I had to throw that in a Vikings thread!)
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 10 Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Nov 12th, 2003, 9:21am
Well, I guess I need to take my medicine now.  There really isn't much to add other than the Vikings D has really been exposed.  I still have to point to coaching though, as the Vikes have made very little in the way of adjustments in the last 4 weeks despite 4 teams hitting them with the same game plan.  Very dissapointing.


on 11/07/03 at 10:43:58, captainpurple wrote:
...
Recent weeks have shown a huge vulnerability in the Viking defense:  Run wide, pass short over the middle.  Denver did it, NYG did it better, and Packers continued the trend.  Fortunately, this week brings either Brees or Flutie (or both), so the precision passing game won't be as deadly.  

Flutie is a huge wildcard though.  Most of the time you wouldn't worry about a guy making his first start in a year, but his guy is a bigtime sparkplug.  He can scramble and make things happen similar to Brat Farte, who gave the Vikes fits last week.

Who needs precision passing!  Just run the damn ball for 211 yards!  Still, Flutie went 21-29, much better than I thought and showed little signs of rust.


on 11/07/03 at 10:43:58, captainpurple wrote:
Also, LT2 is always dangerous, and while I expect the Vikings to go back to the attacking D of the first 6 weeks to see if Flut/ees can beat them, if LT2 starts going off, he could disrupt the entire MIN D game plan.

Damn...   [smiley=nono.gif]  Vikes did go back to that attacking D, LT2 did go off, and the entire MIN game plan was not only disrupted, but shoved down their throats.


on 11/07/03 at 10:43:58, captainpurple wrote:
When the Charger's have the ball...
At his core, I don't think Marty can get too far away from running the ball.  LT gets almost 20 carries/gm for a team that is normally behind, so you know he's getting the ball.  He also sees 6 rec/gm.  Boston creates some matchup problems for anyone, but especially for MIN who's corners are not big enough to handle him.  Marty has to get the play-action going to give Flutie time, and control the clock enough to keep Culpepper and Moss off the field.  If they do, they may eek one out.  I don't like their chances though.
 
HA! Shows what I know!  LT got what he normally gets, and was hard to stop.  But MIN D played so horribly they weren't able to stop anything.


on 11/07/03 at 10:43:58, captainpurple wrote:
When the Vikings have the ball...
Bennett will see a lot more action this week after looking superb in limited action last week.  SD has a poor run D at best, so he should see a lot of success.  Moe is not relegated to goal-line duty yet, and should also get good touches.  After establishing themselves as one of the best offenses in the league, the Vikings have fallen off in recent weeks, unable to run the ball when they need to.  Teams are super-concentrated on stopping the big play, and the Vikings haven't been able to respond with a consistent, sustained "move-the-chains" attack.  While I think Moss will have a couple big plays, look for the Vikings to try to get that sustained attack going this week.  I anticipate a lot more of Moe and Bennett, and Tice wants Jimmy Kleinsasser (NoDak boy!) to get more action too.  That should foster the longer drives.

Defense let the gameplan down.  MIN couldn't run Moe and Bennett once down by 14.  KSass did see more action though, with some crossing routes and flats that have been largely ignored by MIN so far.


on 11/07/03 at 10:43:58, captainpurple wrote:
Key Matchups
Daunte Culpepper vs himself!
Yeah, maybe I'm a little crazy, but DC has gone from a free-throwing-make-something-happen QB to ultra-conservative.  He had an opportunity to run at least 3 times vs the Pack, but chose to either throw it away, or take a sack.  He's got to find that balance where he can run for the 60-80 yds/gm, as well as throw for 250.  When he finally figures that out and has it coming to him naturally, rather than concentrating so hard on INTs, watch out!

This actually worked out for MIN.  DC was 32-44 (73%) for 4 TDs and only 1 pick.  He also ran successfully for the first time this year, gaining 42 yds.  Easily his best game this year.


on 11/07/03 at 10:43:58, captainpurple wrote:
Greg Biekert vs LT2
LT2 is pretty much all you've got to concentrate on vs SD.  Vikings 2nd round pick EJHenderson is going to get more work this week in passing situations to spell the 34yo Biekert, who needs to play better vs the run.  

Are you kidding me?  Did the Vikes even have LBs on the field for this game?


on 11/07/03 at 10:43:58, captainpurple wrote:
Bennett vs Edwards/Lassiter
The two top tacklers for SD will need to control Bennett's explosivness.  SD has a young secondary who can play well at times but gives up the big play.  If the Vikes try to control the clock as I've predicted, this matchup will go a long way to determining their success.

Bennett was never a factor once the Chargers got up.  Gave up a costly fumble in the redzone when the game was still in reach too.


on 11/07/03 at 10:43:58, captainpurple wrote:
The Game
Unfortunately for Charger fans, there isn't much to breakdown about them.  They're going to run LT and pass to give him a rest.  Marty will try to duplicate what has worked vs MIN in the last few weeks, running LT wide and passing short.  SAlexander hurting will hamper that plan, and I don't see the Chargers being very successful.  Flutie will make things happen though, and blow open a full-blown QB controversy in SD.  Vikings should be able to run the ball on SD, as long as McKinnie's ankle doesn't limit him too much.  I look for them to control most of the first half and be up 14-3 by the half.  Second half SD starts going to the air more with Boston over the middle and LT out of the backfield, but I don't think they ever get close in this one as the Vikings coast to a 31-17 win.

I think the only part I got right was the "full-blown QB controversy" part!  Teams will continue to hammer the ball off tackle and pass short until O'Leary does something about it.


on 11/07/03 at 10:43:58, captainpurple wrote:
Forecast
Minnesota Vikings - 31  San Diego Chargers - 17

Daunte Culpepper - 230 pa.yds & 2TDs, 25 ru.yds & 1TD - Playing too tenatively, needs to run more if it's there.
Moe Williams - 45 ru.yds - Will lose a lot to Bennett this week
Onterrio Smith - 15 ru.yds, 10 rec.yds - Returning kicks, doubtful he sees much else.
Michael Bennett - 85 ru.yds & 1TD, 35 rec.yds - Back for good after this week
Randy Moss - 95 yds & 1TD - Prove you can stop him.
D'wayne Bates - 45 yds - Back in at #2, should see some good looks vs Sammy Davis
Kelly Campbell - zilch - Relegated to 4th receiver
Nate Burleson - 25 yds - 3rd receiver now, won't see much in ball control gameplan.
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 20 rec.yds, 1TD - Forgotten last week, but a gameplan factor this week.
Aaron Elling - 1FG & 4XP - Decent day.
D/ST - 2 INT - Wont catch Flutie for sacks, but should get a couple more picks


Aftercast
Minnesota Vikings - 28  San Diego Chargers - 42

Daunte Culpepper - 370 pa.yds & 4TDs, 42 ru.yds, 1INT - Best game of year, much more passing yards since they got behind.
Moe Williams - 45 ru.yds - Dead on on ru.yds, but a whopping 126 rec.yds & 2TDs!!  
Onterrio Smith - nada - Didn't see anything else.
Michael Bennett - 23 ru.yds, 22 rec.yds - I might have pulled the trigger too soon here.
Randy Moss - 120 yds & 1TD - Proved you can't stop him.
D'wayne Bates - 12 yds - Only 1 pass to each WR!?
Kelly Campbell - 10 yds - Only 1 pass to each WR!?
Nate Burleson - 19 yds - Only 1 pass to each WR!?
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 61 rec.yds - Gameplan factor this week, but too little too late.
Aaron Elling - 4XP - Decent day.
D/ST - 2 sacks - Caught Flutie for 2 sacks, but no takeaways.


on 11/07/03 at 10:43:58, captainpurple wrote:
Doug Flutie - 180 yds, 35 ru.yds, 2INT - Will scramble for some yards
LT2 - 85 ru.yds & 2TDs, 35 rec. yds - Biggest weapon, only weapon
David Boston - 70 yds - Will get some over the middle stuff.
Eric Parker 45 yds - Shouldn't be an NFL #2
Justin Peelle - 30 yds - Over the middle should be open
Steve Christie - 1 FG, 2 XP  
D/ST 1 INT, 1 sack - Long day on the field.


Doug Flutie - 248 yds & 2TDs, 18 ru.yds & 2TDs - Played a flawless, awesome game
LT2 - 162 ru.yds & 2TDs, 45 rec. yds - Went off for twice the ru.yds I thought.
David Boston - 82 yds & TD - Open all day on short stuff.
Eric Parker now on IR
Justin Peelle - 6 yds - not needed.
Steve Christie - 6 XP - who needs FGs when you can have TDs?
D/ST 1 INT, 3 sacks, 1Fumb - Long day on the field.....for the VIKES OFFENSE!



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