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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Patriots ~ Week 11 Analysis
        
(Message started by: bakes781 on Nov 13^th, 2003, 3:06pm)

Title: Patriots ~ Week 11 Analysis
Post by bakes781 on Nov 13^th, 2003, 3:06pm

Despite what the coaches have said this IS more than just the Dallas Cowboys vs. the New England Patriots. This is [smiley=fish.gif] former Patriot head coach, Bill Parcells coming back to New England to go [smiley=arguing.gif] with his former defensive coordinator, Bill Bellichick. The subplots are endless. Terry Glenn makes his return as well. He's already tried to insight the crowd with statements that he "hates everything about New England". She's not exactly the brightest[smiley=gotanidea.gif] in the building.

For [smiley=cowboy.gif] fans, this season began with a BIG question mark at QB. Chad or Quincy? Most experts thought, "Does it really matter?" This was a team that most everyone thought was years away from even being a playoff contender. The NFC east has always been one of the toughest in the NFL. However, the division favorite Eagles struggled early. The Skins & the Giants have struggled of late. How about them Cowboys? 7-2 ?.?.? How is this possible? Dallas owns the #1 D in the NFL. 235 combined yards allowed is far & away the best. They are doing it by playing mistake free football. 2nd fewest penalties in the NFL. There's solid proof of Tuna's affect he is having on these guys. Unfortunately, Jerry Jones has been spotted on the sidelines recently. Hey Jerry, why don't you leave the [smiley=coach.gif] to the man with 2 Super Bowl rings okay?

Some of the local media here is predicting a one sided affair in favor of New England. That's not the way I see it. Infact, this game could very likely be decided by a FG in O.T. We have been in way too many close games for us to think we can blow any team away. Dallas has a very good young defense. Roy Williams, Terrence Newman & Mario Edwards are all very talented guys that have just begun their bright careers. Add the veteran Darren Woodson to that group & you have yourself one of top secondarys in the league. Cowboys have been a work in progress offensively. Quincy has been good, but far from great. Hambrick was a major source of their scoring, but now they have brought in Adrien Murrell to take some of the carries. Veteran Buckeyes Glenn & Galloway remain very dangerous. Newcomer Antonio Bryant is very explosive as the 3rd WR. The Pats will have to make plays on 3rd down. They will give up yards, but they must force FGs & some turnovers in the red zone in order to win.

Offensively, the Pats must protect Brady. Bledsoe got killed last week.(2 forced fumbles) I don't suspect Parcells to blitz like he did against Buffalo. He has seen what Brady can do when given man to man coverage. They will probably try to confuse Tom with zone play. TEs Graham & Fauria will have to make plays underneath to counter that strategy. Conservative play didn't work for the Bills, however I think with Brady's ability to avoid pressure we don't have to look deep on every down. If they blitz early expect Weiss to call for a variety screen plays & the occasional draw. Running the ball is the best weapon against an all out blitz. Faulk & Smith must keep us out of too many 3rd & long situations. Otherwise Brady will eventually need to be carted off the field. Troy Brown is questionable & I don't expect to see him on the field. Branch is now the primary receiver. On a side note: Did you know that Deion Branch was taken just two picks behind the Cowboys WR Antonio Bryant in the 2002 NFL draft?

Patriots Statistical Breakdown:

Tom Brady ~ 275 yards passing, 2 tds & 1 int (spreading the love)
Kevin Faulk ~ 40 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving & 1 td
(your guess is as good as mine as to who will carry the rock)
Antowain Smith ~ 1 td & 70 yards rushing, 5 yards receiving
(see faulk)
Troy Brown ~ not likely to play
Deion Branch ~ 90 yards receiving (new go to guy)
Bethel Johnson ~ 55 yards receiving (deep threat)
David Givens ~ 25 yards receiving (week 9 hero)
Christian Fauria ~ 1 td, 40 yards receiving (he's back)
Daniel Graham ~ 30 yards receiving
Adam Vinatieri ~ 2 FGs & 3 PATs

Cowboys Statistical Breakdown:

Quincy Carter ~ 300 yards pass, 20 yards rush, 1 td & 2 ints
(pats have only allowed 4 tds via the air)
Troy Hambrick ~ 1 td, 50 yards rushing
Adrien Murrell ~ 1 td, 75 yards rushing
Richie Anderson ~ 20 yards receiving
Joey Galloway ~ 40 yards receiving
Terry Glenn ~ 1 td, 60 yards receiving
Antonio Bryant ~ 100 yards receiving(big on 3rd & long)
Jason Witten ~ 30 yards receiving(promising rookie)
Dan Campbell ~ 50 yards receiving(last weeks hero)
Billy Cundiff ~ 1 FG & 3 PATS

FINAL SCORE
(IN O.T.)
PATRIOTS 27
COWBOYS 24

I don't need to tell you, but this Sunday night is the biggest game in New England since, yes Game 7 of the ALCS.[smiley=bawling.gif] Hopefully the outcome is a little different. (no pun intended) One more thing. As you're watching the game there's nothing wrong with your television's contrast. [smiley=checkin.gif] Yes Tom Brady IS wearing silver. The Pats will be unvailing their new alternate silver jerseys this week.

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 11 Analysis
Post by DirkDiggler on Nov 13^th, 2003, 8:21pm

Great analysis Bakes.

I wish someone knew who the hell was going to carry the ball. Very frustrating with Faulk, Smith, and Cloud.

Couple of questions, is Fauria going to be the starting TE or is Graham going to keep the starting position?

I see you have branch as the go to guy. Are they essentially going to make him #1 receiver since Brown is probably out? OR, is it going to be receiver by committee?(more so than normal?)

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 11 Analysis
Post by Philly on Nov 13^th, 2003, 8:37pm

Great analysis bakes... I too think that New England wins this one.

I think Brady will do a little better than you predict and Carter a little worse, but otherwise I think you're right on [smiley=bullseye.gif].

The Eagles join the Patriots with their shameless marketing this weekend. The Eagles will be wearing their new Black jerseys.

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 11 Analysis
Post by bakes781 on Nov 14^th, 2003, 8:34am

As far as I can tell Fauria & Faulk are the starters. I would think the TEs will split time during the game. However, Fauria will likely go back to being the red zone guy. Brown may play after all, but as I said Branch is a very similar type of wideout. The entire roster is litered with guys that are "flexible". He can go up the middle, run a screen & go long as you saw on MNF. I actually felt the projections for Brady were a little high. However, after looking at the Dallas schedule I stand by my breakdown. New England is the highest scoring offense the Cowboys have seen this season with the exception of Tampa Bay. More than likely a key turnover late in the game will be the deciding factor.

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 11 Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Nov 14^th, 2003, 3:14pm

Well done bakes. NE is giving up 4 in this one, and I think you're right on in predicting a very close game. I'm thinking of taking DAL +4 , & I'll hope for the 3 pt game in favor of NE for ya! ;)

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 11 Analysis
Post by Coachnorm on Nov 15^th, 2003, 7:18pm

A very good analysis Bakes 781, I approve. I think the Pat "O" can function well vs the Cowboys. While the Cowboy D is a very solid unit I also think that part of that rep comes from having played some totaly inept and out of sync "O's".

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 11 Analysis
Post by bakes781 on Nov 18^th, 2003, 10:34am

Okay let me have it. [smiley=gettinhammered.gif]Obviously I was WAY off in my predictions. I suppose I should have seen it coming. 2 great defensive minds going head-to-head. This was a game where unless you were a Pats or Cowboys fan you probably fell asleep before half time. I was at Hooters of Boston(for the food of course) & I admit it was a snoozer. They were also showing Survivor Series that night so that kept things interesting.

Both teams tried to go deep on several occasions, but the CBs for both Ds really stepped up big. The Pats won the battle of field position & were able to come up with just enough big plays to pull out the victory. INTs late in the game sealed it. A win is a win. We are now 8-2 with a BIG matchup with the Colts coming in 2 weeks. Hopefully the Pats don't look ahead & fall into that dreaded TRAP game syndrome.

on 11/13/03 at 15:06:20, bakes781 wrote:

Patriots Statistical Breakdown:

Tom Brady ~ 275 yards passing, 2 tds & 1 int (spreading the love)
Kevin Faulk ~ 40 yards rushing, 30 yards receiving & 1 td
(your guess is as good as mine as to who will carry the rock)
Antowain Smith ~ 1 td & 70 yards rushing, 5 yards receiving
(see faulk)
Troy Brown ~ not likely to play
Deion Branch ~ 90 yards receiving (new go to guy)
Bethel Johnson ~ 55 yards receiving (deep threat)
David Givens ~ 25 yards receiving (week 9 hero)
Christian Fauria ~ 1 td, 40 yards receiving (he's back)
Daniel Graham ~ 30 yards receiving
Adam Vinatieri ~ 2 FGs & 3 PATs

Tom Brady ~ 212 yards passing, 0 tds & 0 int (no love)
Kevin Faulk ~ 11 yards rush, 22 yards rec
Antowain Smith ~ 1 TD, 51 yards rush, 2 yards rec(main guy)
Troy Brown ~ did not play(can't be w/o him much longer)
Deion Branch ~ 69 yards rec
Bethel Johnson ~ 16 yards rec(just missed a big 1)
David Givens ~ 67 yards rec(becoming a factor on O)
Christian Fauria ~ 24 yards rec
Daniel Graham ~ 5 yards rec(butterfingers)
Adam Vinatieri ~ 2 FGs & 0 PAT(blocked PAT ended a streak of 92 straight)

on 11/13/03 at 15:06:20, bakes781 wrote:

Cowboys Statistical Breakdown:

Quincy Carter ~ 300 yards pass, 20 yards rush, 1 td & 2 ints
(pats have only allowed 4 tds via the air)
Troy Hambrick ~ 1 td, 50 yards rushing
Adrien Murrell ~ 1 td, 75 yards rushing
Richie Anderson ~ 20 yards receiving
Joey Galloway ~ 40 yards receiving
Terry Glenn ~ 1 td, 60 yards receiving
Antonio Bryant ~ 100 yards receiving(big on 3rd & long)
Jason Witten ~ 30 yards receiving(promising rookie)
Dan Campbell ~ 50 yards receiving(last weeks hero)
Billy Cundiff ~ 1 FG & 3 PATS

Quincy Carter ~ 210 yards pass, 33 yards rush, 0 td & 3 ints (the only Cowboy I came close on)
(pats have still only allowed 4 tds via the air)
Troy Hambrick ~ 41 yards rush, 16 yards rec
Adrien Murrell ~ 11 yards rush, 10 yards rec
Richie Anderson ~ 85 yards receiving
Joey Galloway ~ did not play(injury kept secret til late)
Terry Glenn ~ 8 yards receiving
Antonio Bryant ~ 35 yards receiving(big on 3rd & long)
Jason Witten ~ 6 yards receiving(promising rookie)
Dan Campbell ~ 12 yards receiving
Billy Cundiff ~ 0 FG & 0 PATS(pats D was too much)

on 11/13/03 at 15:06:20, bakes781 wrote:

FINAL SCORE
(IN O.T.)
PATRIOTS 27
COWBOYS 24

FINAL SCORE
PATRIOTS 12
COWBOYS 0

Considering the pats were w/o Troy Brown & playing the #1 ranked D I'd say overall they played okay. Defensively we're playing great. Offensively we need to get healthy & get better. With KC losing it's 1st game we have a chance at the #1 seed in the AFC. Houston is w/o David Carr so the Pats should be capable of winning comfortably next week.

Title: Re: Patriots ~ Week 11 Analysis
Post by Philly on Nov 18^th, 2003, 11:25am

Nice work. That was some defensive show both teams put on.

You don't think Belichick will allow them to look past Houston, do you? Especially when Houston just beat the team that crushed the Pats in the season opener...