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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Vikings - Week 12 Analysis
        
(Message started by: captainpurple on Nov 21st, 2003, 11:19am)
Title: Vikings - Week 12 Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Nov 21st, 2003, 11:19am
Here we go again!   Vikings are easily the most disappointing team the last 5 weeks.  I couldn't even bring myself to critique last weeks analysis!  Let's just start anew this week shall we?

A must win this week at home vs the Kitties is hardly an overstatement.  The Puker's have clawed back into the Norris race and this week could be a huge chance to gain a game back.  SIDENOTE:  Take the 49ers at Lame-bo!  They will beat an ailing Farte and give the Vikes another leg up in the common-opponents tie-breaker.

When the Lion's have the ball...
Harrington has played better the last 3 weeks, and the Lions have won 2 of their last 3.  Az Hakim is the perfect weapon vs a slow MIN LB core.  I see a return to his STL days, with mid-level crossing routes about 12 yds deep, and a lot of run after the catch yards.  Lions are dead last in the league in rushing offense.  MIN has been exposed on the ends vs the run, but this team just isn't good enough to torch them.  I see another poor rushing day for Gary/Bryson.  Ricks should have some success when Hakim doesn't see the ball.

When the Vikings have the ball...
Vikings cannot seem to get back to the run.  They talk the talk during the week, but can't seem to get it going on Sunday.  They'll try it again this week though, and utilize the big play to Moss over the highly overpaid Dre Bly.  Look for Kleinsasser to continue his increased role at TE, and Kelly Campbell to continue emerging as a big play threat opposite Moss.  The Vikings will want to run the ball in this one, and should be able to.

Key Matchup
Moss vs Bly
I think this is the only matchup of note in this one.  Moss should be able to torch Bly, who is hurting anyway.  If Culpepper plays like he has this year (sans last week), the big play should open up Williams and Bennett for big days rushing.  If Bly shuts down Moss as Woodson did, it could be a close game.

The Game
This game reeks of "we won, but it was just the Lions" sentiment.  I think the Vikings could actually let down this week because it is such an expected win, even though it is crucial.  This game will hinge on early performance, and I think(hope) Linehan comes out running the ball.  Commit to that run, and I see the Vikings dominating time of possession in the first half, and nursing a 14-10 lead at the half.  I don't think the Vikings will cover the 10.5 pts, but they should win 27-19, with maybe final TD for the Kitties coming in garbage time pushing it to 27-26.

Forecast
Minnesota Vikings 27 - Detroit Lions- 19

Daunte Culpepper - 275 pa.yds & 2TDs, 35 ru.yds, 1INT - Cost the Vikings last week, will return to ultra-conservative-Daunte this week.
Moe Williams - 80 ru.yds & 1TD, 55 rec.yds - Continues to be the most consistent back.
Onterrio Smith - zilch - Returning kicks, not seeing much else.
Michael Bennett - 65 ru.yds, 35 rec.yds - Still not back to mid-season form, but effective on screens.
Randy Moss - 85 yds & 1TD - Woodson shut him down, first time since week 2.  Bly won't though.
D'wayne Bates - 15 yds - Not getting enough separation.  
Kelly Campbell - 30 yds - Big week last week earns him more looks.
Nate Burleson - 10 yds - Not enough balls to go around in this run-oriented gameplan.
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 45 rec.yds, 1TD - Getting more each week.
Aaron Elling - 2FG & 3XP - Missing 35%, where's Gary Anderson?
D/ST - 2sacks, 1INT - Making 3rd string QBs look like All-Pro's lately.
 
Joey Harrington - 270 yds & 1TD, 1INT - Playing better, but this o-line doesn't give him much time.
Shawn Bryson - 45 yds, 30 rec. yds - Not much success running, but breaks a couple long ones.
Olandis Gary - 10 ru.yds, 45 rec. yds - Gets some nice screens
Az Hakim - 85 yds & 1TD - Best play this week for the Kitties
Bill Schroeder - 45 yds - Always seems to break a long one vs MIN
Mikhael Ricks - 45 yds and the "maybe TD" - If Harrington sees pressure, this is the relief valve.
Jason Hanson - 4FG, 1XP - Money from within 45.
D/ST 1 INT, 1 sack - Outmatched, but will they step up?


GO VIKES!
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 12 Analysis
Post by Philly on Nov 21st, 2003, 12:42pm

on 11/21/03 at 11:19:50, captainpurple wrote:
Forecast
Minnesota Vikings 27 - Oakland Raiders - 19


I think you're still hungover from that loss last week.  You don't really want to revisit it, do you?   ;)


Anyway, on a more positive note... check out my Gridiron Guarantee for this week.  I think you'll like it.
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 12 Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Nov 21st, 2003, 12:58pm
Thanks for the heads up.  

You are correct sir!  I do like that guarantee!   But I'm not holdin' my breath!   ::)
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 12 Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Nov 24th, 2003, 2:57pm

on 11/21/03 at 11:19:50, captainpurple wrote:
SIDENOTE:  Take the 49ers at Lame-bo!  They will beat an ailing Farte and give the Vikes another leg up in the common-opponents tie-breaker.

NOT!  If you took my advice, sorry, but take heart in the fact I lost as well!


on 11/21/03 at 11:19:50, captainpurple wrote:
When the Lion's have the ball...
Harrington has played better the last 3 weeks, and the Lions have won 2 of their last 3.  Az Hakim is the perfect weapon vs a slow MIN LB core.  I see a return to his STL days, with mid-level crossing routes about 12 yds deep, and a lot of run after the catch yards.  Lions are dead last in the league in rushing offense.  MIN has been exposed on the ends vs the run, but this team just isn't good enough to torch them.  I see another poor rushing day for Gary/Bryson.  Ricks should have some success when Hakim doesn't see the ball.

Nailed the Kitties game plan and execution, though it wasn't too hard, there just isn't a lot of talent here.  Harrington ended up being the leading rusher!


on 11/21/03 at 11:19:50, captainpurple wrote:
When the Vikings have the ball...
Vikings cannot seem to get back to the run.  They talk the talk during the week, but can't seem to get it going on Sunday.  They'll try it again this week though, and utilize the big play to Moss over the highly overpaid Dre Bly.  Look for Kleinsasser to continue his increased role at TE, and Kelly Campbell to continue emerging as a big play threat opposite Moss.  The Vikings will want to run the ball in this one, and should be able to.

2 for 2 on game plan, but execution here was quite lacking.  CPepp had his second bad week, missing Moss all 5 times they tried to go deep to him, including one INT.  


on 11/21/03 at 11:19:50, captainpurple wrote:
Key Matchup
Moss vs Bly
I think this is the only matchup of note in this one.  Moss should be able to torch Bly, who is hurting anyway.  If Culpepper plays like he has this year (sans last week), the big play should open up Williams and Bennett for big days rushing.  If Bly shuts down Moss as Woodson did, it could be a close game.

Bly didn't shut him down, but CPepp did.


on 11/21/03 at 11:19:50, captainpurple wrote:
The Game
This game reeks of "we won, but it was just the Lions" sentiment.  I think the Vikings could actually let down this week because it is such an expected win, even though it is crucial.  This game will hinge on early performance, and I think(hope) Linehan comes out running the ball.  Commit to that run, and I see the Vikings dominating time of possession in the first half, and nursing a 14-10 lead at the half.  I don't think the Vikings will cover the 10.5 pts, but they should win 27-19, with maybe final TD for the Kitties coming in garbage time pushing it to 27-26.

Vikings came out running and dominated 1st Qtr TOP (10:39), but got away from it in the second.  Again, lack of discipline by Linehan in staying with the run cost them IMO.  There just seems to be some need by Vikings O coaches to push the ball up top even though other plays are working...baffling.


on 11/21/03 at 11:19:50, captainpurple wrote:
Forecast
Minnesota Vikings 27 - Detroit Lions- 19

Daunte Culpepper - 275 pa.yds & 2TDs, 35 ru.yds, 1INT - Cost the Vikings last week, will return to ultra-conservative-Daunte this week.
Moe Williams - 80 ru.yds & 1TD, 55 rec.yds - Continues to be the most consistent back.
Onterrio Smith - zilch - Returning kicks, not seeing much else.
Michael Bennett - 65 ru.yds, 35 rec.yds - Still not back to mid-season form, but effective on screens.
Randy Moss - 85 yds & 1TD - Woodson shut him down, first time since week 2.  Bly won't though.
D'wayne Bates - 15 yds - Not getting enough separation.  
Kelly Campbell - 30 yds - Big week last week earns him more looks.
Nate Burleson - 10 yds - Not enough balls to go around in this run-oriented gameplan.
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 45 rec.yds, 1TD - Getting more each week.
Aaron Elling - 2FG & 3XP - Missing 35%, where's Gary Anderson?
D/ST - 2sacks, 1INT - Making 3rd string QBs look like All-Pro's lately.


Aftercast
Minnesota Vikings 24 - Detroit Lions- 14

Daunte Culpepper - 196 pa.yds, 41 ru.yds, 1INT - Played so tenatively as to be late on wide-open routes.  Poor performance.
Moe Williams - 14 ru.yds, 56 rec.yds - Finally fell to Bennett.  Still big in the receiving game.
Onterrio Smith - zilch - yup, zilch.
Michael Bennett - 73 ru.yds & 1TD - Getting better, may have reclaimed the starting gig for good.
Randy Moss - 56 yds - Was open, but didn't see the rock.
D'wayne Bates - zilch - Hurt again.  
Kelly Campbell - 29 yds - Pretty close
Nate Burleson - 32 yds - Made some key grabs.
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 17 rec.yds - Disappeared.
Aaron Elling - 1FG & 3XP - Redeemed himself somewhat.
D/ST - 4INT FOR 2 TDs!! - Got lucky in the 4th when Harrington really pressed it.



on 11/21/03 at 11:19:50, captainpurple wrote:
Joey Harrington - 270 yds & 1TD, 1INT - Playing better, but this o-line doesn't give him much time.
Shawn Bryson - 45 yds, 30 rec. yds - Not much success running, but breaks a couple long ones.
Olandis Gary - 10 ru.yds, 45 rec. yds - Gets some nice screens
Az Hakim - 85 yds & 1TD - Best play this week for the Kitties
Bill Schroeder - 45 yds - Always seems to break a long one vs MIN
Mikhael Ricks - 45 yds and the "maybe TD" - If Harrington sees pressure, this is the relief valve.
Jason Hanson - 4FG, 1XP - Money from within 45.
D/ST 1 INT, 1 sack - Outmatched, but will they step up?


Joey Harrington - 167 yds & 1TD, 4INT - Played well enough until the 2 minute drill.
Shawn Bryson - 19 yds, 6 rec. yds - Running game never got going.  O-line worse than I thought!
Olandis Gary - 21 ru.yds, 2 rec. yds - Just an afterthought in the gameplan.
Az Hakim - 61 yds & 1TD - Not as many yds as I thought, but played exactly as advertised in the gameplan.
Bill Schroeder - 44 yds - One yard off!
Mikhael Ricks - 46 yds - One yard off here too!
Jason Hanson - 2XP - Money from within 45???? Missed a 41 yarder!  I jinxed him!  ;D
D/ST 1 INT, 1F, 3 sacks - Vikes played down to them as much as they stepped up.


Overall, a wins a win, and exactly as predicted, it's not a great win, as it was a lot closer than the score indicates.  Against the Kitties, you'd like to see a much more dominating performance before going into STL next week.
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 12 Analysis
Post by bakes781 on Nov 24th, 2003, 3:55pm
So the poor fantasy #s for Randy Moss the past 2 weeks were not for lack of trying on his part?  I need Randy to carry my $$$ team through to the championship.  I just hope he's not on the verge of another one of his annual meltdowns.
Title: Re: Vikings - Week 12 Analysis
Post by captainpurple on Nov 24th, 2003, 4:34pm
Definitely not this week anyway.  I think he was more a decoy in the gameplan last week.  He succeeded, but CPepp played horribly.  

This week, he was open, and missed by CPepp several times.  

I don't think you'll see a TO-type meltdown out of Moss this year.



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