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(Message started by: Yankeegirl49 on Aug 25th, 2004, 10:18am)
Title: Please Help-Draft
Post by Yankeegirl49 on Aug 25th, 2004, 10:18am
I am fairly new at this, 2nd season. Did ok last year but need some input from the seasoned vets. Draft is this afternoon.
I have the 7th pick of a 12 team league that plays 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 QB, 1 TE and 1 D.
I was thinking that instead of taking the 7th RB, I would take the #1 WR (haven't decided between Moss & Harrison yet). Then with the 2nd pick I would take the #1 QB (Culpepper or Mannig, haven't decided that yet either). Then I would worry about RB. I know that RBs should be first, but in reading up on this stuff, it seems like having #1 WR & #1 QB may make up for not having premier RB.
Of course this all depends on which RBs are left at #7 in the first round. I don't want the issues that come with Lewis and I don't think James is what he used to be. If McAllister is still there I would take him, hopefully someone will take Lewis before 7 and leave Duece for me, then I could go the traditional route.
Please give me some advice, and if you think I should still take an RB at #7..who should it be, leaving out Lewis and James. Thanks.
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by Philly on Aug 25th, 2004, 10:29am

on 08/25/04 at 10:18:26, Yankeegirl49 wrote:
I am fairly new at this, 2nd season. Did ok last year but need some input from the seasoned vets. Draft is this afternoon.
I have the 7th pick of a 12 team league that plays 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 QB, 1 TE and 1 D.
I was thinking that instead of taking the 7th RB, I would take the #1 WR (haven't decided between Moss & Harrison yet). Then with the 2nd pick I would take the #1 QB (Culpepper or Mannig, haven't decided that yet either). Then I would worry about RB. I know that RBs should be first, but in reading up on this stuff, it seems like having #1 WR & #1 QB may make up for not having premier RB.
Of course this all depends on which RBs are left at #7 in the first round. I don't want the issues that come with Lewis and I don't think James is what he used to be. If McAllister is still there I would take him, hopefully someone will take Lewis before 7 and leave Duece for me, then I could go the traditional route.
Please give me some advice, and if you think I should still take an RB at #7..who should it be, leaving out Lewis and James. Thanks.


What is your league scoring?  Do you get a point per reception?  How much are passing TDs worth?

Anyway, Moss is a solid choice at #7.  He will average at least 100 yards and a TD a game over the course of the season.

But at #7 I'd personally select Edgerrin James (assuming Priest, LT, Ahman, Deuce, Portis, Alexander are gone).  James is 100% healthy and reports are that he has all his speed and quickness back.  Plus he is on an excellent offense.

If you do go Moss at #7, you HAVE to go RB in round 2 or you'll be left with next to nothing come third round.  In round 2 you might be able to grab a Barlow, Dom Davis, Rudi Johnson, or Corey Dillon.  If you wait until round 3, your #1 RB will be Thomas Jones or Duce Staley with really weak backups.

I'd probably go with James at #7 and then grab another RB in round 2 and then start thinking WR.  Wait on your QBs.  You can have a Chad Pennington/Brett Favre in round 5 or 6 or a Brad Johnson in round 9 or 10.  All are solid starters.

You could also get a RB in the first and look for a WR (Harrison or Holt) in round 2 if you want one of the top ones.  The new pass interference rules should really benefit the smaller quicker WRs (Harrison and Holt) so their production could increase over last year.
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by Yankeegirl49 on Aug 25th, 2004, 10:45am
Thanks!
Scoring is 10 yards=1 pt, TD=6 pts.
The mock draft I was looking at, had Moss in the 1st round, Culpepper in the 2nd, Steve Smith in the 3rd and T. Jones in the 4th. The guy wound up with T Jones, Buckhalter and Shipp as his best backs. Of course 2 are now done for the season.
If I go with Moss in the 1st round, I want a stud QB in the 2nd. if I am already passing on quality RBs in the first, can't see taking one in the 2nd, may as well get the QB. I'll probably chicken out and go the traditional way and end up with James, but would still like to see what people say. Thanks again.
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by junkyardjake on Aug 25th, 2004, 10:58am
Hey Yankeegirl,

Going WR and QB in the first two rounds is actually not a bad strategy, but like Philly says, by the third round, you will be stuck with runningbacks like Michael Bennett, Thomas Jones, Kevin Jones and Curtis Martin.

I like your assessment of McAllister, if he's there at #7 take him.  I also agree that Jamal Lewis's legal troubles may not be worth the risk and that James is probably overvalued at #7. (That said, Jamal Lewis, when he's playing is clearly worth the #7 pick, and if you can also draft Musa Smith in a much later round you should be alright.)

If you do not want to be bothered with all those contingencies, then Randy Moss at #7 is a solid pick, but I also agree with Philly on the QB choice in round 2.  Manning and Culpepper are great, but it makes more sense to go RB in round 2 and pick up Hasslebeck (3rd round), Chad Pennington (4th round), or Trent Green (5th round).  I think Chad Pennington in the 4th is your best option.

In round two if you decide to go RB, you should be able to get either Kevan Barlow, Corey Dillon, Stephen Davis or Rudi Johnson.  One of these guys in conjunction with a more undervalued QB like Pennington will probably help create a stronger team.

Good luck !
JYJ :^)
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by The Juror on Aug 25th, 2004, 11:00am
I agree with Philly. I would probably grab a back too.  James is solid, but you may get a higher rated back depending on who goes 1-6.  
Backs are key is any FF league, but if you see yourself reaching for a lower rated #2 back in the second round, and A stud WR is still there, maybe you pick the WR.
Good Luck and if you need help in the fraft, let me know.
Anyone with a name like Yankeegirl49 is ok in my book
(Does the Number 49 signify Ron Guidry??)
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by Yankeegirl49 on Aug 25th, 2004, 11:12am
Thanks again for the replies.

Yes, the 49 is for Guidry..my favorute Yank (though Shef is starting to move up quickly on that list)! I was hesitant to use the Yankee screenname given that there are a lot of Yankee haters out there who may be hesitant to help...LOL!

I probably won't know exactly what I will be doing until the actual draft when I see which RB is left at 7. I'm still thinking on going the conventional way and taking my chances with James, though if I do take Moss and can get Smith, and later on Foster..who i think is going to be awsome, that may work as well.

Funny thing...I am partners with a guy who knows next to nothing about football...& I'm a girl! The rest of the guys in the league never let him forget that he lets a girl run the show!
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by Mossaholic on Aug 25th, 2004, 11:17am
I would also grab Edge in the first round with Jamal Lewis being my second choice. I would not worry about Jamal Lewis and his legal troubles he is still a good pick.  

If Moss, Harrison, or Holt are available in the second then you could grab them and get another RB in the third.

I would not pick a QB early its not worth it you can find value in later rounds. If you were the last person in your league to draft a starting QB you will still end up with a Favre, Pennington, or Brady. Last year in my 10 team league at work I took some advice and took a QB late. I was the last owner  to take a QB, some owners even had two QBs before I had one. Other owners started making comments and making fun of me during the draft. I was able to draft Hasselbeck in the seventh round it worked out pretty well and I was the one laughing when I collected the $$$.
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by Philly on Aug 25th, 2004, 12:35pm

on 08/25/04 at 11:12:39, Yankeegirl49 wrote:
Thanks again for the replies.

Yes, the 49 is for Guidry..my favorute Yank (though Shef is starting to move up quickly on that list)! I was hesitant to use the Yankee screenname given that there are a lot of Yankee haters out there who may be hesitant to help...LOL!

I probably won't know exactly what I will be doing until the actual draft when I see which RB is left at 7. I'm still thinking on going the conventional way and taking my chances with James, though if I do take Moss and can get Smith, and later on Foster..who i think is going to be awsome, that may work as well.

Funny thing...I am partners with a guy who knows next to nothing about football...& I'm a girl! The rest of the guys in the league never let him forget that he lets a girl run the show!


Let us know what happens with the draft.  Hope you stick around.  A lot of us around here can't agree on anything, but we all know what we're talking about (for the most part).  You also won't find a lot of the [smiley=bs.gif] you'll find at other sites.
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by StegRock on Aug 25th, 2004, 2:13pm
First off, [smiley=welcome.gif] to "the Gridiron"!  It looks like our group of "Gridironettes" is slowly, but steadily growing!!! [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

As for your sitch,...

I'm (in the minority of the FF world here and) not big on the value, beyond just fun, which, of course, is of utmost importance, of participating in mock drafts, no less analyzing ones you haven't participated in, which I find to be much less fun.  I've been down this road many a time with many a guy round here as to the reasons why.  You got to deal with the specific tendencies and even personalities of the specific set of owners you are going up against, not the whole of the fantasy football world, and the more mock drafts that exist out there, which these days there are a TON of, the more the quality is watered down and the information less reliable.  Case in point, I was on the horn with one of my FF friends last night (eh-hem) and he was in a position, based on some poor drafters, where like in the 7th or 8th round he was actually debating between Curtis Martin and Donte Stallworth. :o Are you kidding me?  I don't care if you have nothing but running backs, you take Martin in a heartbeat.  A proven #1 RB versus a still very green #2 WR. [smiley=pullleeeeeeeze.gif] This is not even up for debate and if someone tells you it is, you have to question that person's knowledge and understanding of (fantasy) football or at least their motives.

Now, as to your specific sitch with the #7 pick, which also means you have the #17 pick, what you propose is reasonable.  It's the early-mid to middle rounds (and, of course, things out of your control, injuries and such) that make or break a fantasy team.  Have fun with it and do what you want.  Just make sure you are getting good value, i.e., don't take a guy at #7 that you could get at #17 or a guy at #17 that you could get at #31 and so on.  If you follow that maxim, you're in good stead.

With specific regards to your concerns about Jamal Lewis, though, get rid of them.  Think Michael Pittman; moreover, think Leonard Little (who killed a woman while drunk at the wheel and got, essentially, a slap on the wrist and now is enduring just a little heat, relatively speaking, after receiving yet another DUI).  Last year, Pittman's original court date was set to be in August, then November; he was finally tried in January or something and did and will not miss any game time because of the law (i.e. not including the league suspension) and we were all freakin' out about that last year.  November 1st is Jamal's first court date.  His lawyer's probably have a push-back or two in them.  Even if not, they don't hold court on Sundays.  At that point in the season, he won't even need much if any practice, as a matter of fact the rest might be better, and if they are in the playoff hunt, he'll play regardless of any rhetoric to the contrary you may be hearing.  Don't let anyone worry you about Jamal!  They're probably just trying to get you not to take him so they can.  Take Lewis over James with confidence!!!

In any event, best of luck whatever you do, Yankster! [smiley=shamrock.gif]
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by junkyardjake on Aug 25th, 2004, 2:39pm

Quote:
he was in a position, based on some poor drafters, where like in the 7th or 8th round he was actually debating between Curtis Martin and Donte Stallworth.  Are you kidding me?  I don't care if you have nothing but running backs, you take Martin in a heartbeat.  A proven #1 RB versus a still very green #2 WR.


Steg, I absolutely agree that I shouldn't have even had to face a choice between Curtis Martin and Stallworth, but I guess these guys were really clueless.  Anyway, I should have also mentioned that it's a league where you have to start 3 WR's v. 2 RB's (and no flex option).

Here's the team I ended up with, I probably can survive without Martin:

QB C. Pennington (NYJ - QB)  
WR C. Rogers (Det - WR)  
WR J. McCareins (NYJ - WR)
WR D. Stallworth (NO - WR)
RB D. McAllister (NO - RB)  
RB K. Barlow (SF - RB)
TE T. Gonzalez (KC - TE)
BN C. Brown (Ten - RB)  
BN M. Bennett (Min - RB)  
BN L. Suggs (Cle - RB)  
BN J. Plummer (Den - QB)  
BN A. Davis (Cle - WR)

JYJ :^)
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by Yankeegirl49 on Aug 25th, 2004, 2:53pm
Thanks for the nice welcome. After reading the posts here and talking to some others, I have decided to go wiht the RB first. I will give Lewis a hot if he is best avail at 7. I'll post my team tomorrow.
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by Philly on Aug 25th, 2004, 3:37pm

on 08/25/04 at 14:13:44, StegRock wrote:
Case in point, I was on the horn with one of my FF friends last night (eh-hem) and he was in a position, based on some poor drafters, where like in the 7th or 8th round he was actually debating between Curtis Martin and Donte Stallworth. :o Are you kidding me?  I don't care if you have nothing but running backs, you take Martin in a heartbeat.  A proven #1 RB versus a still very green #2 WR. [smiley=pullleeeeeeeze.gif] This is not even up for debate and if someone tells you it is, you have to question that person's knowledge and understanding of (fantasy) football or at least their motives.


Sorry, Steg... this one IS up for debate since you posted it.

I fully agreed with you on this one, Steg, until JYJ posted his roster below.  I think he made the correct decision by taking Stallworth there.  He needed WR help much more than he needed the RB.  With McAllister, Barlow, Bennett, Suggs, and Brown, he already has FIVE #1 RBs.  What good is a sixth starting RB going to do?  You left out quite a bit of the relevant context in your post.

Now if you want to argue that maybe he should have snagged a better WR instead of grabbing one of the 5 RBs he has, that's a valid argument.  (I'd be interested to see the order you drafted those players in Jake...)

But as it stands, he only has one #1 NFL WR on his roster in Rogers.  And Rogers has an injury history now and is sharing the spotlight with a highly ranked rookie WR and a highly ranked rookie RB as opposed to last year when he was the only show in town.
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by junkyardjake on Aug 25th, 2004, 3:57pm
Philly, In Steg's defense I really didn't explain to him  who I already picked and what the roster requirements were, it was just kind of like 'Hey, it's my turn what do you think of this choice ?'.

You know, it was one of those Yahoo! live drafts where you have 1:30 to pick or you automatically get the Redskins defense.

Here's the order that I selected the players:

Round 1)  D. McAllister  
Round 2)  K. Barlow  
Round 3)  T. Gonzalez
Round 4)  C. Pennington
Round 5)  C. Brown  
Round 6)  C. Rogers
Round 7)  J. McCareins
Round 8)  M. Bennett
Round 9)  D. Stallworth
Round 10)  L. Suggs
Round 11)  Buffalo  
Round 12)  Tennessee
Round 13)  J. Plummer  
Round 14)  A. Davis
Round 15)  J. Hanson

I think you're right, I probably could have passed on Lee Suggs for a better receiver but he was too compelling in round 10 (that's the round that Curtis Martin also went, very strange draft).

JYJ :^)
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by Philly on Aug 25th, 2004, 4:14pm
Sorry for jumping to a conclusion there Steg... I thought you knew he already had a bunch of RBs based on your statement: "I don't care if you have nothing but running backs, you take Martin in a heartbeat."

Jake... do you actually know these guys you drafted with?  If you do, I wouldn't admit it in public.  How many teams were there?  I just can't believe Michael Bennett was still available in round 8!
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by junkyardjake on Aug 25th, 2004, 4:41pm
Yeah, you know it's one of those casual work leagues, I believe most of my colleagues here at work are mostly tennis and golf fans.

There was only 10 teams, so I guess strange things happen with that arrangement.  Plus, with the 3 WR requirement, RB's aren't perceived as valuable as they should be.   Not to mention, about 5 of the sissy tennis fans had Yahoo! autodraft their team based on the internal rankings, so that explains some of it too.
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by StegRock on Aug 25th, 2004, 9:49pm
First off, Jeff, that's an AWFULLY tendentious presentation there, pal.  He only had 4 RB's at that point in his draft, not 5.  4 is enough to prove your point, so let's not tendentially and rather needlessly pile it on.  Not to mention, we still don't 100% know that Suggs will be the #1 in Cleveland (though I think he will be ;) ).

Now, to be forthright, though I totally appreciate JYJ's getting my back, [smiley=bow.gif] and he is basically telling the truth that I did not know his roster verbatum, I do recall knowing that he had a handful of running backs and was in need of receivers.  And, in any event, even with knowing the whole picture right now, I still say you take Martin over Stallworth, and then trade one of those backs to one of the other 11 teams that also must obviously be off-balance since 5 #1 backs are on one team.  12-team league, 5 #1 backs on one team, some teams are surely going to be in need for some backs sooner than later and running backs are surely the market to corner.  To put it even more poignantly and pointedly, Martin, in the fantasy football world I exist in, has Joe Horn, if not better, value.  Having an eye toward team balance is one thing, but you always have to have your eye on maximizing the value of every pick.

BUT, in any case, the whole specific nature to the situation, what his specific roster make-up was, what the specific scoring rules were, ultimately proves my more important and general point, which is that the reliability of mocks as an information source is dubious at best, at least vis-a-vis the stock many put into them.
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by Philly on Aug 26th, 2004, 9:55am

on 08/25/04 at 21:49:22, StegRock wrote:

Quote:
Now, to be forthright, though I totally appreciate JYJ's getting my back, [smiley=bow.gif] and he is basically telling the truth that I did not know his roster verbatum, I do recall knowing that he had a handful of running backs and was in need of receivers.  And, in any event, even with knowing the whole picture right now, I still say you take Martin over Stallworth, and then trade one of those backs to one of the other 11 teams that also must obviously be off-balance since 5 #1 backs are on one team.  12-team league, 5 #1 backs on one team, some teams are surely going to be in need for some backs sooner than later and running backs are surely the market to corner.

There are only 10 teams, so that makes it more likely that the other teams are in better shape with running backs.  Plus you can't count on trades this early.  My money league sees a fair amount of trades historically, but I was unable to get any done in 2003 despite numerous offers on my part.  I was at the top of the standings and the other owners felt that they wanted no part in strengthening my team.

[quote]To put it even more poignantly and pointedly, Martin, in the fantasy football world I exist in, has Joe Horn, if not better, value.

Remember that the fantasy world you live in (i.e., the GBRFL) is markedly different than the fantasy world a majority of the rest of us live in (i.e., performance scoring without any care for completion percentage, yards per carry/catch, etc.). While I am not saying you are ignorant of the standard scoring (because it is used in the CBFL), I think you tend to look through your GBRFL glasses (unconsciously?) more often than not.


Quote:
Having an eye toward team balance is one thing, but you always have to have your eye on maximizing the value of every pick.

I'll disagree here too.  Saying you "always" have to follow a certain draft method is dangerous.  Especially in a redraft league, roster balance is VERY important.  I agree that maximizing the value of each pick is imperative and crucial to fantasy success, but not when it is done without regard to the remaining team make-up.



Quote:
BUT, in any case, the whole specific nature to the situation, what his specific roster make-up was, what the specific scoring rules were, ultimately proves my more important and general point, which is that the reliability of mocks as an information source is dubious at best, at least vis-a-vis the stock many put into them.

One can never really solely on ADP, but used in conjunction with VBD, it is an extremely important tool.  Based on my projections for the coming year I have Tyrone Wheatley ranked as a top 20 (#19) fantasy back.  If was to draft solely on value, then I would be taking Wheatley in round 3.  However, I also factor ADP into the equation and see that in a 12 round draft (with similar scoring to my league) he is being selected at 7.02 over the past 2 weeks (it is 8.02 over the past month, so I know people are jumping on his bandwagon to some extent).  If I took him in round 3, it would be terrible value if I could also count on getting him in round 6.  Is this a foolproof method?  Of course not, because I could be drafting with an Oakland fan who will take him in round 4.  But more often than not, I'll get him in round 5 or 6 or 7 if I want him there.
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by StegRock on Aug 26th, 2004, 11:46pm

on 08/26/04 at 09:55:24, Philly wrote:
Remember that the fantasy world you live in (i.e., the GBRFL) is markedly different than the fantasy world a majority of the rest of us live in (i.e., performance scoring without any care for completion percentage, yards per carry/catch, etc.). While I am not saying you are ignorant of the standard scoring (because it is used in the CBFL), I think you tend to look through your GBRFL glasses (unconsciously?) more often than not.


Balony.  With all due respect, I don't know any competently-constructed rankings that puts Stallworth anywhere near Martin. [smiley=pullleeeeeeeze.gif] In our VERY OWN "Top 100", Martin went 50th, Stallworth 89th:
http://www.junkyardjake.com/top100poll/picks01.htm.
That's a 39-pick difference, almost 4 rounds in a 10-team league, 3+ in a 12-team league!  And, to be honest with you, Martin went late in our thing, behind the likes of Keyshawn Johnson, Charlie Garner, Brian Westbrook (before the Buckhalter injury), Laveranues Coles... :-/ But, whatever to that,... a 39-pick difference right here!


Quote:
I'll disagree here too.  Saying you "always" have to follow a certain draft method is dangerous.  Especially in a redraft league, roster balance is VERY important.  I agree that maximizing the value of each pick is imperative and crucial to fantasy success, but not when it is done without regard to the remaining team make-up.


Why don't you then?  It's almost like you're looking for ways to disagree.  My use of "always" was not in connection with a drafting "method".  I said "you always have to keep your eye on maximizing the value of every pick".  It's a single recommendation, not a full-blown methodology.  It would be like saying "you always have to weigh all your options at every pick".  Not to mention, I say "keep your eye on maximizing", not "make sure to maximize".  As such, that does not preclude taking a player that has a lower "objective value", perhaps is being undervalued, at a "reasonable" time and in a calculated way.  ...  In any event, it's the "nevers" that are more dangerous, anyway.  There are things you (can) "always" do; it's hard to come up with things you (should) "never" do.


Quote:
One can never really solely on ADP, but used in conjunction with VBD, it is an extremely important tool.  Based on my projections for the coming year I have Tyrone Wheatley ranked as a top 20 (#19) fantasy back.  If was to draft solely on value, then I would be taking Wheatley in round 3.  However, I also factor ADP into the equation and see that in a 12 round draft (with similar scoring to my league) he is being selected at 7.02 over the past 2 weeks (it is 8.02 over the past month, so I know people are jumping on his bandwagon to some extent).  If I took him in round 3, it would be terrible value if I could also count on getting him in round 6.  Is this a foolproof method?  Of course not, because I could be drafting with an Oakland fan who will take him in round 4.  But more often than not, I'll get him in round 5 or 6 or 7 if I want him there.


ABC, XYZ...  I'm not into making fantasy football rocket science.  As I see it, those "methods" just overcomplicate things and cause you to overthink.  I mean, if you enjoy and have fun with that kind of analysis, go for it.  Do whatever is fun for you.  That's what it is all about.  But, bottom line, in essence, what you are saying there is equivalent to my "reasonable time and calculated way".  We're not talking about different things; it all is the same stuff; we are just going about it differently, you in a more mathematical [smiley=nerd.gif] way, I in a more zen [smiley=zenmaster.gif] way.  Whichever way you do it, if you know your onions, the conclusions are going to be roughly similar,... which ours in the end often are.
Title: Re: Please Help-Draft
Post by bgsgfan on Aug 27th, 2004, 9:20am
There is one element of drafting that is often missed.  That is you need to account for your own strengths and weaknesses.  If you are a good trader, always drafting based on value, regardless of position, can be a good option.  If you are not a good trader, building a balanced team is a better strategy.

Without knowing an individual's personal strengths and weaknesses, a good case can be made for either style.


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