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(Message started by: Philly on Sep 1st, 2004, 10:49am)
Title: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by Philly on Sep 1st, 2004, 10:49am
OK... my money league drafts this Saturday (9/4).  Because the guys are spread out geographically and have weird schedules, we are doing another autodraft (yuck).

I've got my rankings together (we rank the players at each individual position, and then pre-select which position we want to select in each round).

Rosters are 15 deep, starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST.

Scoring: (Passing: 1/25 yards, 6/TD, -1/INT or FL, 2/2-pt, 2/300+ yds) - (Rushing/Receiving: 1/10 yards, 6/TD, -1/FL, 2/2-pt, 1/50+ yd TD) - (Kicking: 1/XP, 3-4-5/FG) - (Defense/ST: 6/TD, 2/FR or INT or Safety, 1/sack, 15 for 0 PtA and -5 for every 10 PtA)

Here's my question:  I have the #9 (of 12) pick in the draft.  These guys go RB for the most part, however there is a possibility that one or two guys ahead of me will draft a WR or a QB.  How should I rank my positions?

Right now, I have:
1st - WR
2nd - RB
3rd - RB
4th - WR
5th - RB
6th - QB
7th - WR
8th - DST
9th - QB
10th - RB
11th - WR
12th - TE
13th - WR
14th - K
15th - QB

I'm hoping for a shot at Moss in round 1, then grab a Rudi or DD on the way back.  (My concern is that Moss will go earlier and I'll be stuck with Harrison or Holt as a first round pick.)  Or would it be better to take a RB first and WR second?  Then I could grab a James/McAllister/Lewis if others stray from the RB in the first.  And I'd also get a Torry Holt, Terrell Owens type in round 2.

Needless to say, I hate the #9 position, especially in an autodraft.
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by The Juror on Sep 1st, 2004, 12:06pm
I am guessing that you would get Moss.  There is always a guy or 2 who grabs Culpepper and Manning in the first round, which will put you in good position for Moss and one of the RB's you like in Round 2.
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by DirkDiggler on Sep 1st, 2004, 1:39pm

Quote:
Or would it be better to take a RB first and WR second?  Then I could grab a James/McAllister/Lewis if others stray from the RB in the first.  And I'd also get a Torry Holt, Terrell Owens type in round 2.


IF everyone in front of you goes RB, I see you getting Fred Taylor.  If one guy goes another position, you get James. And then, as you said, you get a WR on the way back.  Probably a Chad Johnson type.    

Or why not go RB - RB.  You would get James or Taylor and then Rudi/Barlow/Dominic type.  That makes the most sense.  Take advantage of the 16th pick to get a RB.  If you go RB later....pickings become slim!!  At the 9th pick I would DEFINITELY GO RB then RB.    
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by captainpurple on Sep 1st, 2004, 3:23pm
Your right on the divide aren't you?!    ?.?.?

I think I'd go RB, cuz you gotta figure 1-6 are Priest, LT, Ahman, Portis, Deuce and Zander.   2 spots left in front of you with Lewis, Taylor and Edge left.   You will one of these.  If someone does take Moss in front of you, a better stud RB slides to you.   If you take WR and someone takes him, you get stuck with Holt or Harrison, and that is simply not acceptable w/o points for receptions.  

Don't forget Faulk.  If you've got a homer or a guy with a whim in front of you who thinks he's going to be back (NOT!), you could even end up with Deuce!   But that's probably looking through the rosy glasses a little to hard.

I'd go RB - RB, and hope for ....wait for it.......wait for it........  Kevin Barlow!  to slip to you at 16 on the way back.  (I assume it's serpentine, maybe not?)   Anyway, some are high on Barlow this year, so you may get 2 good backs, or 1 and an underacheiver, depending on your opinion.    

If you go RB-WR, you will most likely not get Moss or Harrison, but Holt may slip to 16.   You will almost surely get Johnson, Santana or Owens there.

Good luck!
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by Philly on Sep 1st, 2004, 4:51pm
This is my league with draft order... Here's what I expect will happen.

SteelArmy - 1 - Priest or LT2
Cute Baby Panda Bears - 2 - Priest or LT2
One of These Days - 3 - Green/Portis/Alexander
Trenton Zen Cavemen - 4 - Green/Portis/Alexander
Shock & Awe - 5 - Green/Portis/Alexander/McAllister
Joey C's Wiseguys - 6 - Don't know. He may reach for Moss/Culpep/Manning here.
Rob's Fumble - 7 - No clue. He took Buc defense in first last year.  [smiley=hellyeafunny.gif]
Jets Suck - 8 - I don't have a feel for this guy.
Amish Viagra - 9 - ???
Black & Tans - 10 - Probably a RB or top WR here.
The Usual Suspects - 11 - Will make a good decision.
REDSKIN'S GROUPIE - 12 - Will try to outsmart everyone, including himself.
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by DirkDiggler on Sep 1st, 2004, 5:57pm

on 09/01/04 at 16:51:21, Philly wrote:
This is my league with draft order... Here's what I expect will happen.

SteelArmy - 1 - Priest or LT2
Cute Baby Panda Bears - 2 - Priest or LT2
One of These Days - 3 - Green/Portis/Alexander
Trenton Zen Cavemen - 4 - Green/Portis/Alexander
Shock & Awe - 5 - Green/Portis/Alexander/McAllister
Joey C's Wiseguys - 6 - Don't know. He may reach for Moss/Culpep/Manning here.
Rob's Fumble - 7 - No clue. He took Buc defense in first last year.  [smiley=hellyeafunny.gif]
Jets Suck - 8 - I don't have a feel for this guy.
Amish Viagra - 9 - ???
Black & Tans - 10 - Probably a RB or top WR here.
The Usual Suspects - 11 - Will make a good decision.
REDSKIN'S GROUPIE - 12 - Will try to outsmart everyone, including himself.


I still say go RB in round 1 and Round 2.  You will probably get your number 8 and number13 running back.  If you wait til the third round you will get crap at running back AND make the teams that have 1-7 all the more dominant.  If nothing else it is a defensive move!!  The more I think about it the more you HAVE to taking 2 running backs!!
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by captainpurple on Sep 1st, 2004, 6:07pm

on 09/01/04 at 16:51:21, Philly wrote:
Amish Viagra


Love the team name man!   [smiley=laugh.gif]

With those wildcards in front of you, there's an even better chance one of the last 3 1B-tier RBs (Lewis ((only because of trial)), Edge, Taylor).   You gotta go RB and grab one of those.  

I think I'm talking myself into WR the second round.  As we discussed in the Barlow thread, there just aren't that many backs to be had after 9 or 10.   You've got that big group of unknowns like CBrown, KJones, JJones, QGriffin, TJones/ATrain, EGeorge, Henry/McGahee, Minny RBBC, TMinor, LSuggs, CDillon, the list goes on and on.   I think at 16, coming back, you should still be able to get one of the top four (Moss, Holt, Owens or Harrison).   I say that because someone always goes QB  ::)   which should free up one of these guys.  Then round 3 will hopefully still yeild one of these tier 2 guys.

Man, this designation of a position in a round throws a wrench into it doesn't it!

GO VIKES!
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by DirkDiggler on Sep 1st, 2004, 6:49pm

on 09/01/04 at 18:07:34, captainpurple wrote:
Love the team name man!   [smiley=laugh.gif]

With those wildcards in front of you, there's an even better chance one of the last 3 1B-tier RBs (Lewis ((only because of trial)), Edge, Taylor).   You gotta go RB and grab one of those.  

I think I'm talking myself into WR the second round.  As we discussed in the Barlow thread, there just aren't that many backs to be had after 9 or 10.   You've got that big group of unknowns like CBrown, KJones, JJones, QGriffin, TJones/ATrain, EGeorge, Henry/McGahee, Minny RBBC, TMinor, LSuggs, CDillon, the list goes on and on.   I think at 16, coming back, you should still be able to get one of the top four (Moss, Holt, Owens or Harrison).   I say that because someone always goes QB  ::)   which should free up one of these guys.  Then round 3 will hopefully still yeild one of these tier 2 guys.

Man, this designation of a position in a round throws a wrench into it doesn't it!

GO VIKES!


No way.  The key is that he will at least get 2 of the top 16 backs!!!  

Priest Holmes
2 LaDainian Tomlinson
3 Clinton Portis WAS
4 Ahman Green GB
5 Jamal Lewis BAL
6 Shaun Alexander SEA
7 Deuce McAllister NO
8 Edgerrin James IND
9 Fred Taylor JAC
10 Corey Dillon NE
11 Marshall Faulk STL
12 Travis Henry BUF
13 Domanick Davis HOU
14 Kevan Barlow SF
15 Stephen Davis CAR
16 Rudi Johnson CIN
17 Tiki Barber NYG
18 Brian Westbrook PHI
19. Thomas Jones

IF you do not take two of these backs, you have REAL question marks.  After top 5 receivers, they are basically a dime a dozen. I strongly believe you have to take advantage of your second round pick and get a stud running back!!
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by captainpurple on Sep 1st, 2004, 8:46pm

on 09/01/04 at 18:49:06, DirkDiggler wrote:
No way.  The key is that he will at least get 2 of the top 16 backs!!!  
...
IF you do not take two of these backs, you have REAL question marks.  After top 5 receivers, they are basically a dime a dozen. I strongly believe you have to take advantage of your second round pick and get a stud running back!!


I agree, there are ??s after these; however, is it worth the gamble to get a top flight receiver?   If there's guys taking Ds in the first couple rounds (unlikely), and a couple of them taking QBs in round 2(pretty likely), it's quite possible Philly could land #19 in round 3 at pick 33.    

I'd go for it.  IMO, Holt or Harrison at #16 giving you 11 -13 TDs is better than ending up with Faulk, Barlow or Tiki  at that pick.
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by DirkDiggler on Sep 1st, 2004, 9:34pm

on 09/01/04 at 20:46:59, captainpurple wrote:
I agree, there are ??s after these; however, is it worth the gamble to get a top flight receiver?   If there's guys taking Ds in the first couple rounds (unlikely), and a couple of them taking QBs in round 2(pretty likely), it's quite possible Philly could land #19 in round 3 at pick 33.    

I'd go for it.  IMO, Holt or Harrison at #16 giving you 11 -13 TDs is better than ending up with Faulk, Barlow or Tiki  at that pick.


There is a BIG IF.  I seriously doubt that 3 people between picks 1-15 do not take wide receivers.  There are only 3 top flight receivers.  So then the question begs would you rather have Chad Johnson or Dominic Davis/Kevan Barlow/Rudi?  
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by The_Dog on Sep 1st, 2004, 9:41pm
What about a completely different idea........

Wr-Wr.......Here is the deal, you figure that there are 4 stud receivers, 5 if you count Chad Johnson. After those it really takes a step down. If you go Wr Wr you could easily end up with 2 of the top 3 which is a big big advantage. Then pick your next 3 or 4 picks at running back. You can pull a crew of guys the likes of Curtis Martin, Kevin Jones, Lee Suggs, Tike Barber, Duce Staley, Thomas Jones. Now if you go 4 in a row chances are you will find one diamond in the rough and another good back. The thing is that even though running backs are the most important, they also are very deep this year. I drafted last week with this idea in the 9 hole of a 10 team draft where you start 3 recievers and 2 running backs........I ended up with Harrison, Holt, and Chad Johnson......and still got Rudi Johnson and Thomas Jones in the backfield with K. Jones as a back up.

So I would say go

1: WR
2: WR
3: RB
4: RB
5: RB
6: RB
7: QB
then however you wanted with the rest

get 2 stud recievers and go real deep at running back hoping to pull that diamond.



Just an idea.
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by Skcus Redef 2 on Sep 1st, 2004, 11:20pm
Had my non-keeper draft last weekend and I had the same pick you are sitting with now. Surprisingly, I ended up with J. Lewis - I would assume the "potential" legal troubles held people off. I don't know if this helps but I will list how the first 9 went:

1      Priest Holmes
2      Ahman Green
3      LaDainian Tomlinson
4      Deuce McAllister
5      Clinton Portis
6      Daunte Culpepper
7      Shaun Alexander
8      Peyton Manning
9      Jamal Lewis
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by Philly on Sep 2nd, 2004, 9:54am
Thanks for all the discussion guys... I'm still on the fence about things.

Just some more fodder... top scorers at each position in our league last year:

QB - Manning (368), Culpep (356 - missed 2 games), Hasselbeck (341), Green (340), McNair (317)
RB - Holmes (371), Tomlinson (339), Green (335), Lewis (299), Portis (273)
WR - Moss (263), Holt (242), CJohnson (196), Harrison (183), Boldin (182)

I grabbed Portis (1.03), JLewis (2.10), Holt (3.03), CJohnson (4.10), and Green (5.03) last year.  QBs get some favorable scoring in our league, however I still feel I can wait a bit and get a Green, Favre, Pennington, or Brooks in rounds 5 or 6.

All of this discussion is helping me.  We're all going to try to set a date for a live draft for next season, but we're stuck with the autodraft this year.  This is my money league, but there's bragging rights too.  I've been in this league since 1998, won it once, and been top 3 every year since then (except for a dead-last finish in 2001).
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by Philly on Sep 3rd, 2004, 1:58pm
OK... got my players ranked.  Also ranked the positions...

1. RB
2. RB
3. QB (went QB here because they get 6 pts/TD)
4. WR
5. WR
6. RB
7. WR
8. QB
9. D-ST
10. RB
11. TE
12. WR
13. WR
14. K
15. QB

I don't know if anyone else here has used SI.com for an autodraft before or now.  A friend of mine said I should log into the draft room at the beginning of the draft and see how fast it moves.  Maybe I could switch the positional rankings as it moves along based on who is available.  I doubt it will work.  I imagine it locks everything down and completes the entire draft in a matter of seconds.
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by Mossaholic on Sep 3rd, 2004, 2:25pm
Here is an article that might help you with your draft Philly. I ran across it and thought you might want to read it if you havn't already. Anyway here it is

Drafting Strategies for Auto-Draft Leagues

http://www.nflfreaks.com/Fantasy_Football_Features/Draft_Central/Pre-Draft_Articles/CrunchTimes_Auto-Draft_Strategy.htm
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by DirkDiggler on Sep 3rd, 2004, 2:36pm

on 09/03/04 at 13:58:32, Philly wrote:
OK... got my players ranked.  Also ranked the positions...

1. RB
2. RB
3. QB (went QB here because they get 6 pts/TD)
4. WR
5. WR
6. RB
7. WR
8. QB
9. D-ST
10. RB
11. TE
12. WR
13. WR
14. K
15. QB

I don't know if anyone else here has used SI.com for an autodraft before or now.  A friend of mine said I should log into the draft room at the beginning of the draft and see how fast it moves.  Maybe I could switch the positional rankings as it moves along based on who is available.  I doubt it will work.  I imagine it locks everything down and completes the entire draft in a matter of seconds.


Glad you went RB RB.

I am not sure I would go QB in round 3.  Manning and Culpepper will surely be gone.  I don't see much difference between the rest of the quarterbacks.  However, I do see a difference between the WRs that would be available.  

If you wanted to be really gutsy, take a third running back in round 3, then wr in round 4 and 5, then QB in round 6.  If you take a RB in round 3, you would AT WORST, get the 33rd running back.  I would be willing to bet that most teams will go 2 RB and 1 WR/QB in front of you.  So I would be willing to be you would get about the 20th best RB.(WHO IS GOING TO START!!!)  versus getting the scrubs later on.......

Just more food for thought.....
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by Philly on Sep 3rd, 2004, 4:16pm

on 09/03/04 at 14:25:53, Mossaholic wrote:
Here is an article that might help you with your draft Philly. I ran across it and thought you might want to read it if you havn't already. Anyway here it is

Drafting Strategies for Auto-Draft Leagues

http://www.nflfreaks.com/Fantasy_Football_Features/Draft_Central/Pre-Draft_Articles/CrunchTimes_Auto-Draft_Strategy.htm

Thanks for finding this.  [smiley=bow.gif] I haven't checked their site lately - gotten stuck going to the same few over and over again.  Interesting article and charts.



on 09/03/04 at 14:36:53, DirkDiggler wrote:
Glad you went RB RB.

I am not sure I would go QB in round 3.  Manning and Culpepper will surely be gone.  I don't see much difference between the rest of the quarterbacks.  However, I do see a difference between the WRs that would be available.  

If you wanted to be really gutsy, take a third running back in round 3, then wr in round 4 and 5, then QB in round 6.  If you take a RB in round 3, you would AT WORST, get the 33rd running back.  I would be willing to bet that most teams will go 2 RB and 1 WR/QB in front of you.  So I would be willing to be you would get about the 20th best RB.(WHO IS GOING TO START!!!)  versus getting the scrubs later on.......

Just more food for thought.....

Some very tasty food too.  [smiley=thumbsup.gif] I've got a little less than 18 hours to think about it though.
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by DUKE0313 on Sep 3rd, 2004, 6:34pm
I like your plan, except for the QB. I'd wait another round or even two and you can still find good QB's then.
By the way, whose bright idea was it to have an auto-draft in a money league? Stinkola, dude!
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by bgsgfan on Sep 3rd, 2004, 8:25pm
I think I'd do QB in round 5 and 7.

rb
rb
wr
wr
qb
rb
qb
wr
the rest the same.

I see the value this year with the Green, Favre, Brooks area of the draft.  Round 3 puts you in no-man's land after Manning, Culpepper, Vick, and McNabb (maybe even Bulger).
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by Philly on Sep 4th, 2004, 10:35am
1 - RB - E. James
2 - RB - R. Johnson
3 - WR - T. Owens
4 - WR - S. Smith
5 - QB - A. Brooks
6 - RB - L. Suggs
7 - WR - J. Smith
8 - QB - J. Harrington
9 - D/ST - Panthers
10 - RB - T. Wheatley
11 - TE - A. Gates
12 - WR - B. Lloyd
13 - WR - R. Ferguson
14 - K - J. Feely
15 - QB - K. Boller

I love this team.  I am very happy with my RBs.  All 4 are starters on their team.  All 4 are guys I have in my top 20 at the position (except Suggs, who could end in the top 20).  WR is great too.  I have 3 I can count on every week.  I'll watch the waiver wire for a 4 or 5 that might be better than Lloyd or Ferguson (Richard Smith, perhaps?).  My QBs are OK.  Brooks is a solid starter and Harrington should be fine as a backup.  I'll dump Boller for a waiver pickup at another position.  TE is very solid.  I love Gates this year.  I might look for a #2 on waivers (Kinney, LJ Smith, Stevens, Witten available).  Kicker is solid (Hansen, Conway, Nedney available).  Excellent defense (Seahawks and Vikes still available as backups.)

Phew... I was very nervous about this draft, but every year I do well.  I guess I just spend more time ranking the lists than others do.  (Our commish got Anquan Boldin in the 3rd round [smiley=hellyeafunny.gif]).
Title: Re: Draft Day Dilemma
Post by Philly on Sep 4th, 2004, 10:39am
Hey DD... I almost went with your RB-RB-RB strat, but I changed it at the very last minute.  Good thing too, because I looked at the RBs drafted and had I gone RB in round 3 I would have gotten Lee Suggs (who I ended up with in round 6 :o) and I got better WRs as a result.  It was a good idea though.  :)

Thanks, everyone, for your help.  Barring injuries, I should be in the money again this year.


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