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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Who to keep?
        
(Message started by: lumber2121 on Jan 12th, 2005, 11:59am)
Title: Who to keep?
Post by lumber2121 on Jan 12th, 2005, 11:59am
We can keep one player in my league.  That player has to be on the team for half of the season.  Therefore, I cannot protect Larry Johnson or Tatem Bell.  

Here are my players who are eligible to be protected.

QB - Plummer
RB - T. Jones, S. Jackson, M. Faulk
WR - C. Johnson, N. Burleson, L. Coles
TE - Gates
K - Wilkins
DST - Buffalo

If Marshal Faulk retires, I will probably keep S. Jackson.  If not, I think that I would protect C. Johnson.  Thomas Jones is probably the next option.  What are your thoughts?

Here is the scoring information:
Scoring for Offensive Categories

FL - Fumble Lost, Including ST plays -2 points
Pa2P - Passing Two-point Conversion 2 points
PaInt - Passing Interception -2 points
PaTD - Passing TD 6 points
PaYd - Passing Yards 0+ PaYds = 1 point for every 25 PaYds

Re2P - Receiving Two-point Conversion 2 points
ReTD - Receiving TD 6 points
ReYd - Receiving Yards 0+ ReYds = 1 point for every 10 ReYds

Ru2P - Rushing Two-point Conversion 2 points
RuTD - Rushing TD 6 points
RuYd - Rushing Yards 0+ RuYds = 1 point for every 10 RuYds
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by BarnabyWilde on Jan 12th, 2005, 12:48pm
I agree. If Faulk calls it quits, keep Jackson. If not, keep Chad Johnson.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by Chumpzilla on Jan 12th, 2005, 8:19pm
I tend to think a little different than most when it comes to putting together a team.  With that being said I'm not ready to agree with BW... not yet.   ;D  Can you tell me how many players you start each week?
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by lumber2121 on Jan 13th, 2005, 7:54am
We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 DST and 1 K.  

We can have a total of six reserves as well.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by Philly on Jan 13th, 2005, 10:11am
I think I'd keep Steven Jackson.  Marshall Faulk has slowed down appreciably and, since you are only starting 2 WRs each week, the RBs should be in much higher demand (meaning there will be plenty of really good ones that won't be keepers - your own Chad Johnson for example - and will be available in the draft.)
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by StegRock on Jan 13th, 2005, 1:03pm

on 01/12/05 at 12:48:44, BarnabyWilde wrote:
I agree. If Faulk calls it quits, keep Jackson. If not, keep Chad Johnson.


Exactly [smiley=bullseye.gif] along with Philly's further explanation.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by lumber2121 on Jan 20th, 2005, 1:23pm
By the way, I also have Antonio Gates.  I know that TE are not usually protectable.  However, Gates scored 14 TDs!
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by KillerKingSting on Jan 20th, 2005, 2:01pm
I'm a gambler in a way. I'd go with T.Jones - BUT, when do you have to turn in your keeper? I might wait and see what Chicy's Offense does during the offseason BEEfore deciding on that.

I am still not sold on S-Jax yet though, as it stands right now, he would BEE my 2nd option.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by Philly on Jan 20th, 2005, 4:54pm
I'm not sure you can expect another 14 TDs from Gates next season.  After all, that was an NFL record-breaking season for TDs from a TE.  Will Brees still be the QB or will he be traded?  If Rivers is the QB, do we know he can get the job done?  Maybe the Chargers will have better receivers next season... too many questions there.

Thomas Jones didn't do anything to impress in Chicago this year.  He was very inconsistent.  I don't think you want to keep him when he has yet to prove he can be a solid #1 FF RB and he's had plenty of chances (ARZ, TB, and now CHI).
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by KillerKingSting on Jan 20th, 2005, 6:07pm

on 01/20/05 at 16:54:08, Philly wrote:
Thomas Jones didn't do anything to impress in Chicago this year.  He was very inconsistent.  I don't think you want to keep him when he has yet to prove he can be a solid #1 FF RB and he's had plenty of chances (ARZ, TB, and now CHI).


Whoa, S-Jax has proven what?

TJ in ARI - ARIZONA had many problems and they have yet to field a consistent RB = bad OL & passing game.

TJ in TB = much as the same in ARI. TB has yet to field a consistent RB with a consistent ground mauling OL.

TJ in CHI = can't blame TJ's non-productive season on a horrid offense run by rookie & NFL europe QBs. BEEsides, he posted top fantasy football numbers in CHI BEEfore Grossman went down w/ injury.

TJ may BEE a gamble but, none of the other RBs you have right now are any better NOR do they have any better of a chance to put up TOP FF RB numbers the way TJ did in the 1st 5 games of the 2004 season.

Further more, the Rams are a PASS first team and that will not change as long as Martz is the HC of St. Louie.

At least with TJ, you have a starting RB. That can't BEE said of S-Jax. :D

Hive-Five Babe-Bee! ;)
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by sexydexy on Jan 20th, 2005, 8:21pm
I agree with most here.  Keep a close look at Faulk's situation.  If Faulk retires, Jackson steps in as a power runner and pass catcher out of the backfield.  

However, personally, I would keep Chad Johnson regardless of what Faulk does because Mike Martz is just so unpredictable with his play calling.  
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by lumber2121 on Jan 21st, 2005, 11:26am
In all fairness to Thomas Jones, he did put up some good yardage numbers.  The only reason that he did not end up as one of the top FF RBs is because he did not find in the endzone very often.  With the exception of the last week of the season, Jones only scored one TD after Grossman went down.  The Bears defense turned the ball over a lot and it is tough to sustain drives when you give the other team the ball.  Jones is very talented.  

I have considered Jones.  I have until a week before the draft to decide, so I can keep an eye on how things develop in Cincy, Chicago and St. Louis.  I am sure we will revisit this in the future. In the mean time, it is interesting to discuss these types of keeper questions.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by Philly on Jan 21st, 2005, 1:41pm
From the draft site (which has very good information and news reporting, although their prognostication leaves me scratching my head sometimes) http://www.gbnreport.com/ on 1/21/05.


Quote:
One of our correspondents reports that Bears' G.M. Jerry Angelo was on both major sports radio stations in Chicago yesterday talking about the draft. Perhaps the most interesting thing Angelo reportedly said were that they would not be trading out of the 4th spot; that the Bears preferred to acquire quality players rather than simply adding quantity. Angelo also intimated that he was leaning toward taking an offensive player with the 4th pick, but added that he wouldn't rule defense out of the question. In terms of this year's draft class, Angelo praised the running back class of this year, but reportedly thought that it was a down year for receivers in this draft.  He also said that he didn't think there was an offensive tackle worth the 4th pick in this year's draft field.


You don't have to read between the lines too much to extrapolate the fact that the Bears could be looking at a RB with their #4 pick.  Of course this could be misinformation, but this is a deep draft for RB talent.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by Chumpzilla on Jan 24th, 2005, 5:09am

on 01/20/05 at 13:23:36, lumber2121 wrote:
By the way, I also have Antonio Gates.  I know that TE are not usually protectable.  However, Gates scored 14 TDs!


Sorry it took so long for me to respond.  You rerad my mind.  In my opinion, there are very few tight ends that are "top-tier." Due to position scarcity and lack of other studs I would seriously consider keeping Gates.  My second choice would be Johnson.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by KillerKingSting on Jan 25th, 2005, 4:55pm

on 01/21/05 at 13:41:03, Philly wrote:
From the draft site (which has very good information and news reporting, although their prognostication leaves me scratching my head sometimes) http://www.gbnreport.com/ on 1/21/05.


You don't have to read between the lines too much to extrapolate the fact that the Bears could be looking at a RB with their #4 pick.  Of course this could be misinformation, but this is a deep draft for RB talent.


I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the Bears picking a RB in the 4th round in regards to that hurting TJ's chances in 2005.
Seems to me that the Bengals did the same in 2004 with Chris Perry (1st round?? [smiley=laugh.gif]) and the guy made absolutely no diference whatsoever.
BEEsides, A-Train will probably skip to another team this year and you can never have enough backup RBs on your team.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by DirkDiggler on Jan 25th, 2005, 9:36pm

on 01/21/05 at 13:41:03, Philly wrote:
From the draft site (which has very good information and news reporting, although their prognostication leaves me scratching my head sometimes) http://www.gbnreport.com/ on 1/21/05.


You don't have to read between the lines too much to extrapolate the fact that the Bears could be looking at a RB with their #4 pick.  Of course this could be misinformation, but this is a deep draft for RB talent.


I don't think there is need for extrapolate anything.  The Bears are going to trade out of the number four and get a WR.  
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by Philly on Jan 26th, 2005, 10:14am

on 01/25/05 at 16:55:09, KillerKingSting wrote:
I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the Bears picking a RB in the 4th round in regards to that hurting TJ's chances in 2005.
Seems to me that the Bengals did the same in 2004 with Chris Perry (1st round?? [smiley=laugh.gif]) and the guy made absolutely no diference whatsoever.
BEEsides, A-Train will probably skip to another team this year and you can never have enough backup RBs on your team.

The Chris Perry comparison is a completely different situation.  The Bengals drafted Perry because they knew it would be very difficult to sign Rudi Johnson following the 2004 season.  They just wanted a contingency plan in case he leaves.  That's not the case in Chicago.

Also, they drafted Chris Perry MUCH later than #4 overall.  If the Bears do choose a RB at #4 (which I'm not saying they will, just pointing out there is some info out there which might lead one to believe that they will) it will be either Cedric Benson, Carnell Williams, or Ronnie Brown - none of whom you'd draft as a backup to Thomas Jones.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by KillerKingSting on Jan 27th, 2005, 12:53am

on 01/26/05 at 10:14:10, Philly wrote:
The Chris Perry comparison is a completely different situation.


Thats not completely true. This is your take on the situation based on your analysis of what you've read. And that - your analysis that is - hasn't always been credible.
Not that anyone here can boast a 100% creidble analysis but, that certainly doesn't give YOU any more of a higher chair to sit in as compared to the rest of us. 

The Bengals could've drafted Chris Perry for MANY different reason that could remain unknown to you and your - ahem ::) - analysis. :D


Quote:
Also, they drafted Chris Perry MUCH later than #4 overall.


And that means what? Julius Jones was also drafted much later than Chris Perry and he saw time - as well as a plethra of other RBs throughout the years were drafted later than Chris Perry. (Emmit Smith comes to mind).
Your comparison has little meaning when referring to individual teams and their needs and especially when they already have a RB , that BEEing Thomas Jones, who the Bears just happen to aqcuire just LAST season in F.A. - and they PAID to do so - otherwise, the BUCs would still have him there on their team :D



Quote:
If the Bears do choose a RB at #4 (which I'm not saying they will, just pointing out there is some info out there which might lead one to believe that they will)


Yes. you are saying that they will draft a RB at that spot. Otherwise, why spend so much time and effort in relaying this mis-information?
You have made a consistent point to post on this matter in regards to spefically speaking about the TJ situation in chicago.

So now not only is your analysis not 100% credible but,  now you are saying that, what you ARE trying to say - your not really trying to say that?
Only you put it out there to make what point?
That it is a possibility?
There are 1000+ possibilities in the NFL in regards to each team.
We would like to READ what you ARE trying to say rather than, one of the 1000 possibilities that we could read on our own. :D

Obviously it has MUCH to do with your individual analysis and personal impatience of TJ as a starting RB and THAT, individual analysis, has yet to include any indepth information based on solid creditable information regarding TJ's WHOLE picture

(teams he has been on, players around him, running games that were consistently productive, athletism of the Offensine Lines he had to run BEEhind, TEs & FBs he had blocking for him, the indepth analysis of each player in the passing game of each team he was on in relation to THAT opening up the RUNNING game for him, the QB running the show, the head coaches that called the running plays in relation to the situation in each game (1st & 20 and an up the middle run was called?) etc etc)

I'm still waiting for your indepth analysis rather than, your bloated POST count comments ;D



Quote:
it will be either Cedric Benson, Carnell Williams, or Ronnie Brown - none of whom you'd draft as a backup to Thomas Jones.


So now you can predict which college players coming out of the draft who will - hands down - BEEcome more productive than the NFL players who already have experience?

This is exactly what you are saying so, please, list ALL of the NFL players coming out of this draft who will replace the VETs that are already in position.

Otherwise, if you do NOT do this then, obviously, you are guessing on this matter. Pure and simple.

For all you know TJ could break out next year and your bias against TJ - would look like an amatuer's premature ejaculated thought process. :-*

We all have those though.

Hive-Five Babe-Bee :D
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by sexydexy on Jan 27th, 2005, 3:18am
Actually, everything is speculation at this point, including Thomas Jones being any good next year.  

My guess is that Chicago will take either a RB or a WR...if they take a RB, Thomas Jones will be on his way out of Chicago in the near future as the next RB will be his replacement, for better or worse.  

I think they should take a WR after they traded Booker though.  That'd make the most sense.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by DirkDiggler on Jan 27th, 2005, 7:53am
Back to the original question.....

If Jackson does not emerge as the starter in St Louis, I would keep Gates.  He posted incredible numbers.  In addition, you have to factor in his incredible positional value as a TE.  Tons of receivers out there, very few great TEs.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by Philly on Jan 27th, 2005, 1:25pm
Here we go again...   ::)

on 01/27/05 at 00:53:34, KillerKingSting wrote:
Thats not completely true. This is your take on the situation based on your analysis of what you've read. And that - your analysis that is - hasn't always been credible.
Not that anyone here can boast a 100% creidble analysis but, that certainly doesn't give YOU any more of a higher chair to sit in as compared to the rest of us.
Everyone here offers their analysis.  I'm not saying mine is any better or worse than anyone else's.  


Quote:
The Bengals could've drafted Chris Perry for MANY different reason that could remain unknown to you and your - ahem ::) - analysis. :D
Yes, everything I've read indicated that Perry was drafted to prevent the Bengals from having no pedigreed (NFL or college) RBs going into the 2005 season.  If you have other information, please share it instead of just questioning everything I write.


Quote:
And that means what? Julius Jones was also drafted much later than Chris Perry and he saw time - as well as a plethra of other RBs throughout the years were drafted later than Chris Perry. (Emmit Smith comes to mind).
Again, you're comparing apples to eggplants. The Cowboys did not have a solid RB in place during the draft last season.  If Eddie George was having the type of season Rudi Johnson had, I doubt Julius Jones would have seen much time.  But the fact is that Eddie George was terrible and the Cowboys had no choice but to play JJ when he was healthy.


Quote:
Your comparison has little meaning when referring to individual teams and their needs and especially when they already have a RB , that BEEing Thomas Jones, who the Bears just happen to aqcuire just LAST season in F.A. - and they PAID to do so - otherwise, the BUCs would still have him there on their team :D
The Bears already had a RB last year (A-Train), but decided to sign Thomas Jones anyway.  Also, since you're demanding facts from me and not allowing me to state my opinion, where's the proof that the Bucs would have kept TJ had the Bears not signed him as a free agent?  It seems (yes, seems) to me that the Bucs didn't think that highly of Jones if they let him get away.


Quote:
Yes. you are saying that they will draft a RB at that spot. Otherwise, why spend so much time and effort in relaying this mis-information?
No, if you read exactly what I said, it was that I'm NOT saying that they'll take a RB #4.  I personally believe that they'll take either a RB or a WR.  I don't know which yet.  And I didn't spend a whole lot of time providing a link to a quote I read somewhere discussing the Bears draft.


Quote:
You have made a consistent point to post on this matter in regards to spefically speaking about the TJ situation in chicago.
Actually, my first post was to support Steven Jackson.  My second post was to refute the suggestions to keep either Antonio Gates or Thomas Jones.  Why haven't you jumped all over me for speaking out against Gates?  At the beginning of this season I though Thomas Jones would finally be able to post good numbers.  I've been a supporter of his up until this season.  He flopped this season.  Sure, it wasn't all his doing - no QB, no WRs, O-line issues... I realize that.  But the point is that I'm done with him.  He's burned me too many times.


Quote:
So now not only is your analysis not 100% credible but,  now you are saying that, what you ARE trying to say - your not really trying to say that?
Only you put it out there to make what point?
That it is a possibility?
There are 1000+ possibilities in the NFL in regards to each team.
We would like to READ what you ARE trying to say rather than, one of the 1000 possibilities that we could read on our own. :D

Obviously it has MUCH to do with your individual analysis and personal impatience of TJ as a starting RB and THAT, individual analysis, has yet to include any indepth information based on solid creditable information regarding TJ's WHOLE picture

(teams he has been on, players around him, running games that were consistently productive, athletism of the Offensine Lines he had to run BEEhind, TEs & FBs he had blocking for him, the indepth analysis of each player in the passing game of each team he was on in relation to THAT opening up the RUNNING game for him, the QB running the show, the head coaches that called the running plays in relation to the situation in each game (1st & 20 and an up the middle run was called?) etc etc)
Again, yes, it is my personal opinion.  Which, I think is what was solicited in the original post in this thread... My opinion is that Steven Jackson has more upside than Thomas Jones.  I'm 99% sure that we haven't seen Steven Jackson's best season yet.  I'm about 90% sure that Thomas Jones has already had his.


Quote:
I'm still waiting for your indepth analysis rather than, your bloated POST count comments
Honestly, I could care less about my post count.  The reason it is so high is because I signed up early on and I visit the site often.  I'm also willing to offer my opinions on topics (sometimes they help, sometimes they don't...)



Quote:
So now you can predict which college players coming out of the draft who will - hands down - BEEcome more productive than the NFL players who already have experience?

This is exactly what you are saying so, please, list ALL of the NFL players coming out of this draft who will replace the VETs that are already in position.
What I'm saying is that IF the Bears choose a RB with the #4 overall pick, they are not drafting him to be a backup.  RBs are not often the top picks (at least recently - LaDainian Tomlinson is the last top 5er I can remember), but they are among the easier positions to predict for future production.


Quote:
Otherwise, if you do NOT do this then, obviously, you are guessing on this matter. Pure and simple.

For all you know TJ could break out next year and your bias against TJ - would look like an amatuer's premature ejaculated thought process. :-*
Or, he could be replaced as a starter in Chicago and end up out of the league.  Who knows?  The truth is we're all guessing.  I just like to guess based on some research - whether it be factual or speculation.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by sameoldsameold on Jan 27th, 2005, 2:35pm
come on guys! he jus wants to know who to keep!  heck at this rate he might jus skip the answer.....we can argue about bears drafting on another thread maybe,....this guy needs help....i say keep Chad Johnson.....palmer is coming into his own and the bengals offense should start banging people up early next year.....keep chad johnson he is reliable....
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by KillerKingSting on Jan 27th, 2005, 3:47pm

on 01/27/05 at 00:53:34, KillerKingSting wrote:
Yes. you are saying that they will draft a RB at that spot. Otherwise, why spend so much time and effort in relaying this mis-information?
You have made a consistent point to post on this matter -  now you are saying that, what you ARE trying to say - your not really trying to say that?
Only you put it out there to make what point?
That it is a possibility?
There are 1000+ possibilities in the NFL in regards to each team.

Obviously it has MUCH to do with your individual analysis and personal impatience of TJ as a starting RB and THAT, individual analysis, has yet to include any indepth information based on solid creditable information regarding TJ's WHOLE picture


Hive-Five Babe-Bee :D


You posted your opinion on this thread as to which player should BEE kept.

Afterwards, I posted my own.

But, you THEN, came back & posted against TJ (and Gates as well but, I kind of agree with you in your analysis of Gates as a keeper).

Not only that, you came back AGAIN & provided an article, approximately THREE MONTHS BEEfore the draft :o  that eludes to Chicago drafting a RB with their 4th spot and coupling that with TJ's demise.

Why? BEEcause you feel strongly against TJ BEEing kept for WHATEVER reason (past history; Personal vendetta a.k.a. "he bruned me too many times").

It shouldn't BEE any surprise that I defend a keeper pick that I posted when someone else has gone through lengths to make it look bad.

Why not also provide the article's past success rate for predicting Chciago's 1st round draft pick OR for that fact, any other of Chicago's draft picks for at LEAST the past couple of years? You are trying to help the poster in his/her to make the BEST decision and provide the most accurate information in doing so -?

You have consistently tried to sway the poster away from TJ - as your personal vendetta a.k.a. "he bruned me too many times".

I don't think TJ is a lock. I said he was a gamble and I also said I like to gamble.
What was it that made my post regarding TJ as a keeper pick, so threatening to your thought process that would make the POSTER BEElieve that TJ was such a viable keeper pick that you had to come back and post against him? time and time again?

I just found it interesting that TJ had very little keeper value and wanted to know why. But it turns out that it seems to BEE your personal vendetta against him.

No biggie ;)

Hive-Five Babe-Bee :D
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by Philly on Jan 27th, 2005, 6:41pm

on 01/27/05 at 15:47:29, KillerKingSting wrote:
Why not also provide the article's past success rate for predicting Chciago's 1st round draft pick OR for that fact, any other of Chicago's draft picks for at LEAST the past couple of years? You are trying to help the poster in his/her to make the BEST decision and provide the most accurate information in doing so -?
First off, the article is not making any predictions concerning the Bears draft.  The article is merely reporting what the Bears' GM stated on a couple radio stations.  Is the Bears' GM a reliable source for info about the Bears?  I would guess there aren't many who would be closer to the decision-making process than he is...  Anyway, since you asked, the website www.gbnreport.com did make a projection for the Bears first pick in 2004.  They said the Bears would take DT Tommie Harris, and sure enough, they did.  They missed on the 2nd and 3rd round projections though.  I checked the 2003 draft and they were close, but just off.  They predicted the Bears would trade out of the #4 spot with the Jets and then take a DT.  As it turned out, they did trade down with the Jets and ended up taking a DE.

Ultimately, I don't have a personal vendetta against Thomas Jones.  I always thought "this will be the year he breaks through"... if you check the thread that Steg started about him pre-season (http://www.fantasyfootballer.com/cgi-bin/theGridiron/YaBB.cgi?board=55;action=display;num=1089654453) you'll see that I was in his camp (for the most part).  I haven't really been burned by him either.  I only ever had him in one league (this year) and I ended up trading him before the season even started.  So, I've only been burned by defending his potential.  I believe, now, that we've seen the best of Thomas Jones and shouldn't expect more (if even) than we saw in 2004.  That's all.
Title: Re: Who to keep?
Post by KillerKingSting on Jan 28th, 2005, 8:58am

on 01/27/05 at 15:47:29, KillerKingSting wrote:
Why not also provide the article's past success rate for predicting Chciago's 1st round draft pick OR for that fact, any other of Chicago's draft picks for at LEAST the past couple of years? You are trying to help the poster in his/her to make the BEST decision and provide the most accurate information in doing so -?


Good job  ;) but Owners, GMs and Coaches blow smoke screens about who they are going to draft all the way up to the draft - and that includes that hyper-babble on radio talk shows. Nice reasearch though and I appreciate the time taken to do so! [smiley=thumbsup.gif]



Quote:
I don't think TJ is a lock. I said he was a gamble and I also said I like to gamble.
What was it that made my post regarding TJ as a keeper pick, so threatening to your thought process that would make the POSTER BEElieve that TJ was such a viable keeper pick that you had to come back and post against him? time and time again?


[smiley=shrug.gif]



Hive-Five Babe-Bee :D


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