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Title: "the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy QB's for '05 Post by StegRock on Jul 9th, 2005, 1:01am Top 10's inundate the fantasy landscape and, moreover, don't really allow for much speculation. Whereas, a (seems-to-be-odd) "Top 16" gives us the top half of the league. Perfect! And, it just so happens that, at least with the QB's here, it is where the talent, or should I say any hope of really predicting things, really falls off. So, without further ado, here's my Top 16 in my signature "windows" format of analysis... (Here is a link to the Wide Receiver rankings thread: http://www.fantasyfootballer.com/cgi-bin/theGridiron/YaBB.cgi?board=55;action=display;num=1121146307, and one to the Running Back rankings thread: http://www.fantasyfootballer.com/cgi-bin/theGridiron/YaBB.cgi?board=55;action=display;num=1121408891.) The Lonely Top Tier NO SWING (expected) 1) Peyton Manning [smiley=horse.gif] - 4,250 to 4,750 yards / 42 to 51 touchdowns... Not much to say that already hasn't been... This guy is in a class by himself. The top quarterback; perfect system; incredible arsenal; squeaky-clean character and injury situation.* The Deep Second Tier [smiley=ohshit.gif] [smiley=yes.gif] UPSWING ("") 2) Marc Bulger [smiley=ram.gif] - 4,000 to 4,250 yards / 29 to 35 touchdowns... The Rams will have an offensive resurgence in '05. Solid/Heady player; outstanding system; incredible arsenal; very clean character and injury situation. NO SWING 3) Trent Green [smiley=chief.gif] - 3,900 to 4,200 yards / 29 to 35 yards... Offense will have to put up points... and, more importantly, can. Solid/Heady player; outstanding system; good arsenal; good character; not so good injury situation. [smiley=ohshit.gif] [smiley=doseofreality.gif] DOWNSWING 4) Daunte Culpepper [smiley=viking.gif] - 3,500 to 4,500 yards / 25 to 35 touchdowns (+ rushing bonus)... Replacing Moss with a rook... not good. As such, "windows" are WIDE-open. Great player; great system; questionable arsenal; good character; okay injury situation. [smiley=ohshit.gif] [smiley=yes.gif] UPSWING 5) Jake Delhomme [smiley=afro.gif] - 3,800 to 4,200 yards / 28 to 34 touchdowns... Colbert will be a better Muhammad and Smith is back. Solid/Clutch player; okay system; good arsenal; good character; good injury situation. NO SWING 6) Michael Vick [smiley=turkey.gif] - 3,600 to 4,100 (COMBINED passing and rushing) yards / 20 to 25 (COMBINED "") touchdowns... The bump in fantasy points he potentially gives you in rushing under most systems is just hard to deny (downgrade Vick to #11 if your league's scoring system mitigates Vick's bonus rushing value). Amazing athlete; questionable system; poor arsenal; good character; bad injury situation. [smiley=ohshit.gif] [smiley=yes.gif] UPSWING 7) Jake Plummer [smiley=broncofan.gif] - 3,750 to 4,250 yards / 26 to 33 touchdowns... He's got the weapons; he shown the flashes; the team believes in him. Erratic, BUT flashy and solidly athletic player; good system; great arsensal; decent character; poor injury situation. NO SWING 8) Tom Brady [smiley=patriot.gif] - 3,750 to 4,150 yards / 28 to 32 touchdowns... Hits on defense will force the Pats to score more; Branch is about to break out, BUT loss of Weiss is a hit. Solid/Reliable/Heady player; okay system (in transition); below-average arsenal; great character; great injury situation. [smiley=ohshit.gif] [smiley=yes.gif] UPSWING 9) Kerry Collins [smiley=warrior.gif][smiley=skull.gif] - 3,600 to 4,250 yards / 25 to 37 touchdowns... Moss, Porter, Moss, Curry, Moss, Gabriel, and, oh yea, Moss... What more is there to say? Strong-armed pocket passer; decent system; outstanding arsenal; not a very good character; okay injury situation. NO SWING 10) Brett Favre [smiley=cheesehead.gif] - 3,650 to 4,150 yards / 27 to 32 touchdowns... Old guy put up almost 4,100 last year. Why not again? He needs to be gellin' with Walker in camp, though. The old top quarterback; awesome system; solid arsenal; excellent character; "no" injury situation (is all I can say). [smiley=ohshit.gif] [smiley=doseofreality.gif] DOWNSWING 11) Donovan McNabb [smiley=eagle.gif] - 3,400 to 4,100 yards / 24 to 32 touchdowns (+ rushing bonus)... It ALL hinges on Owens's return. Great athlete, okay quarterback; great system; great or terrible arsenal; great character; so-so injury situation. The Split Third Tier (Here we have a) two guys my 16-year seasoned gut likes, b) two "mandatory" choices that my gut does NOT, but I have to have here to validate whatever level of fantasy football competence I have + c) a guy.) [smiley=ohshit.gif] [smiley=yes.gif] UPSWING 12) David Carr [smiley=texan.gif] - 3,550 to 3,900 yards / 22 to 27 touchdowns... On the rise with a steadily improving supporting cast. Great athlete; good system; very good arsenal; good character; fair injury situation (he's young; he can take it). [smiley=ohshit.gif] [smiley=yes.gif] UPSWING 13) Kurt Warner [smiley=chicken.gif] - 3,400 to 4,000 yards / 21 to 27 touchdowns... This guy can still throw for some serious yardage. Okay athlete, decent quarterback; outstanding system; really great arsenal; great character; very bad injury situation. [smiley=ohshit.gif] [smiley=doseofreality.gif] DOWNSWING 14) Matt Hasselbeck [smiley=seahawk.gif] - 3,000 to 3,750 yards / 20 to 28 touchdowns... Really wide-open windows. '05 is a make-or-break campaign. He very well could break. Decent player; great, but hackneyed system; weak arsenal; fine character; not good injury situation. [smiley=ohshit.gif] [smiley=doseofreality.gif] DOWNSWING 15) Aaron Brooks [smiley=priest.gif][smiley=angel.gif] - 3,300 to 3,950 yards / 19 to 25 touchdowns... Brooks and the Saints will reach a breaking point this season. The leesh has been long enough. Superb athlete, dumb player = terrible NFL quarterback = very risky fantasy quarterback; fine system; very solid arsenal; weak character; okay injury situation (but, I reassert, could very well get benched before the end of the season). NO SWING 16) Chad Pennington [smiley=batman.gif] - 3,000 to 3,650 yards / 20 to 25 touchdowns... Excited about Coles's return, but the Jets O just lacks luster and punch. Heady player; unpredictable system (from a fantasy perspective); solid arsenal; excellent character; not good injury situation. *(By "injury situation", I mean that I am considering a mix of history of injuries, age, ability to recover quickly, and exposure to injury based on a) style of play and b) o-line protection.) Feel free to comment and critique and add your own "Top 16" lists. Just don't be lazy about it! [smiley=nownow.gif] Think it through... [smiley=thinking.gif] Keep the quality high! |
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Title: Re: "the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy QB's for '05 Post by gridiron_legends on Jul 13th, 2005, 12:12am Once again, props, my man. Thanks for the work. One note before I bring in my opinions -- do you think including INTs in the "ranking equation" would be helpful, since some leagues penalize for INTs? There are a few ranks that I would take issue with. I highly doubt that Peyton can reproduce last year's stats. I know he hasn' t lost any weapons, but odds are just against doing that two years in a row. That's a once-in-a-career performance, I think. Putting Bulger #2 is an unexpected move, I think. Last year wasn't an outstanding year for him, if I remember correctly, and certainly not a #2 quarterback year. I'm not so big on Delhomme -- I don't think Colbert will better Muhammad, at least not this year. I'm also not that big on Steve Smith -- I'm waiting until he produces big before I take him as a top-notch receiver. Still, Delhomme has shown himself to be a solid qb, but I think hardly a top 5 qb. I think Hasselbeck deserves a higher ranking, though not a top 7 ranking. Also, Brett Favre will undoubtedly have a better year than Jake the Snake, and possibly better than Daunte. I think I'd have him somewhere around #6. Hey Steg, here the hell is Steve McNair? I realize he's lost a major weapon in Derrick Mason, but he still has Bennett, a solid running game, and yes, he's still Steve McNair and he's FINALLY HEALTHY! Also, I believe Drew Brees deserves a spot on a top 15 list -- he's bound to get better stats than half the quarterbacks in the league, what with AJ Feeley, JP Losman, Trent Dilfer, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, and whoever's qbing for Dallas, Chicago, San Francisco, Arizona, and Tampa. That's 10 qbs right there. Anyway, that's my say. All comments welcomed. |
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Title: Re: "the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy QB's for '05 Post by Tony_O on Jul 13th, 2005, 2:40am Good Job Steg!! [smiley=thumbsup.gif] The only change that I would definately make is placing Carson Palmer in for either Carr or Pennington [smiley=horse.gif]. He has a great arsenal: C. Johnson, T. Huz, Washington, Warrick, and the rookie. A good running game, R. Johnson. He has good character and showed much improvement as the year progressed. [smiley=thinking.gif] [smiley=zenmaster.gif] |
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Title: Re: "the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy QB's for '05 Post by mutantseabass on Jul 21st, 2005, 3:11pm Very nice read. I agree with alot of what you have stated in your post. Finally someone other then me giving Delhomme some love, the guys is seriously the most underrated Qbs in the league. Warner is in a very Qb friendly system, but at 12? I feel he should be down a bit soley on his injury history and has not produced in the last three years. Im not a big Vick supporter and 6 is too high for such an insconsistant qb, you grab Vick i would reccomend another quality Qb on your roster. Pennington is value at 16 and would bump him a few simply for the Jets bringing in Heimerdinger and bringing back Coles. Hackett was seriously stunting Pennys ability. He has very good value from where i have seen him being drafted at. Carr is way too high on that list, he does have a good arsenal but the guys #s really have not impressed me to this point, almost in line with Harrington and would not want Joey at the Helm of my fantasy team. Any reason for the omittance of Carson Palmer? If he would not have missed the final 3 games of last season he would have more than likely posted a 3500 yard campaign, not too bad for a second year QB. |
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Title: Re: "the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy QB's for '05 Post by StegRock on Jul 21st, 2005, 3:31pm I don't know, msb. My gut just doesn't like Palmer a whole lot for this year. Bottom line, besides perhaps Pennington's statistical "windows", I don't see Palmer's as being as good as the other 15's, and Pennington I just think is a safer bet than Palmer. I suppose Palmer would be #18 if I came up with a more drawn-out list. Anyway, thanks for the overall kudos. [smiley=bow.gif] |
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Title: Re: "the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy QB's for '05 Post by StegRock on Sep 11th, 2005, 4:45pm on 07/09/05 at 01:01:18, StegRock wrote:
Maybe I didn't account for the loss of Moss ENOUGH. It is certainly the dawn of a new day for Daunte, one without Moss rising and shining upon him. |
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Title: Re: "the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy QB's for '05 Post by DB on Sep 12th, 2005, 10:58am Quote:
Totally ... Remember what TO did for McNabb.... so now Daunte minus Moss... he drops a few notches. I think you are way off on Carson Palmer. He is in a very good offense on a rising team with 1 good and 1 great receiver, he has progressed exactly how you would want a #1 pick to. I would say he puts up top 10 fantasy numbers, maybe top 5. |
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