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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Ranking the Rookies
        
(Message started by: StegRock on Jul 25^th, 2005, 10:32pm)

Title: Ranking the Rookies
Post by StegRock on Jul 25^th, 2005, 10:32pm

Fellas, now that the GBRFL re-stocking draft is over and I have gone about my making my 8 of the first 17 picks and a whopping 13 overall, I can reveal my rookies cheatsheet. This isn't going to include wordy explanations like most of my work. I am simply going to provide the list I worked from and from there we can dialogue. Again, this is a bit rough. It is going straight from my notebook to this post...

1. RB Cedric Benson - Bears [smiley=bear.gif]
2. RB Carnell Williams - Buccaneers [smiley=buc.gif]
3. RB J. J. Arrington - Cardinals [smiley=chicken.gif]
4. QB Alex Smith - 49ers [smiley=beatnik.gif]
5. RB Ronnie Brown - Dolphins [smiley=fish.gif]
6. RB Maurice Clarett - Broncos [smiley=broncofan.gif]
7. WR Braylon Edwards - Browns [smiley=dog.gif]
8. RB Frank Gore - 49ers [smiley=beatnik.gif]
9. WR Mike Williams - Lions [smiley=lion.gif]
10. WR Troy Williamson - Vikings [smiley=viking.gif]
11. RB Eric Shelton - Panthers [smiley=afro.gif]
12. WR Mark Clayton - Ravens :D
13. QB Charlie Frye - Browns [smiley=dog.gif]
14. RB Ciatrick Fason - Vikings [smiley=viking.gif]
15. QB Adrian McPherson - Saints [smiley=priest.gif]
16. WR Matt Jones - Jaguars [smiley=sophisticate.gif]
17. QB Jason Campbell - Redskins [smiley=redskin.gif]
18. WR Reggie Brown - Eagles [smiley=eagle.gif]
19. WR Roddy White - Falcons [smiley=turkey.gif]
20. QB Aaron Rogers - Packers [smiley=cheesehead.gif]

To see how the draft actually unfolded, go to:
http://www.fantasyfootballer.com/cgi-bin/theGridiron/YaBB.cgi?board=56;action=display;num=1122180006.

Title: Re: Ranking the Rookies
Post by DB on Jul 26^th, 2005, 9:03am

Interesting. Most rankings have Cadillac at #1 based on his receiving abilities and the offense that he will play in. What is it about Cedric that you think ranks him higher?

Also, most would have Ronnie Brown at 2 or 3. He is supposed to a great talent. Is it the Ricky factor that lowers his value? That probably shouldn't really matter in a keeper league (at least not too much).

I saw Edwards play briefly in college. I would rank him higher than Clarett. He could very well be the best of the bunch when all is said and done.

Finally, I think Jason Cambpell has the best chance to be a productive QB this year. I think Frank Gore could be very good and Mark Clayton comes into the league polished enough to have a good rookie year, which is 750 - 850 6-8 TDs based on how the best rookies did last year (with the exeption of Clayton).

Title: Re: Ranking the Rookies
Post by Philly on Jul 26^th, 2005, 9:16am

For a keeper league, Cedric Benson could be a logical choice as the #1. He's more of a workhorse back than any of the other top ones. (Although Eric Shelton could become a nice back if Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster can't get it done.)

I'm not sure about your love for Charlie Frye... I mean, he was the MAC QB flavor of the year, but he's nowhere near the QB that the other MAC QBs (and future ones in Jacobs and Gradkowski) are or will be. Jason Campbell will get significant playing time this year. Maybe you don't like the Gibbs system, but they've got an OK line and a good running game and some decent receivers and an underrated TE. I think Campbell will easily outperform Frye this year and long term.

I think you have Brown too low for a keeper league. The Fins won't be keeping Ricky beyond this season. Ronnie Brown is the most polished of the RBs to enter the league this season. He is a power runner who can also turn the corner. He catches the ball better than Caddy. He blocks well (who cares, for fantasy though, right?).

At WR, it's a crapshoot. I love Williams, but he has too many hands wanting the ball in Detroit. Williamson will be a good one. (I just watched a replay of the So. Carolina v. Tennessee game from 2004 last night and Williamson has great hands and the type of speed that Culpepper can exploit.) Mark Clayton could have the best numbers (yes, even with Kyle Boller throwing to him) of any of the rookie WRs this season.

Title: Re: Ranking the Rookies
Post by StegRock on Jul 26^th, 2005, 1:55pm

I'm going to address DB's and Philly's points point-by-point (basically), at least the points I am interested in and feel I have insights about...

1. Let me preface that there is one (but only one) overriding reason to rank Williams over Benson right now or for now... Benson's contract situation seems to be among the worst of the top rookies' (from "The REAL Feed", http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/football/nfl/wires/07/25/2020.ap.fbn.bears.training.camp.0338/index.html). Besides that, though, but that is HUGE mind you, Benson is the better pick on a few fronts (some more logically legitimate; others more just gut-related, the gut of a 17-year fantasy football veteran mind you): a) rushing-wise, which is these guys' main job, i.e. the thing they do that most directly allows them to keep their jobs, the Bears' '04 rushers had better rushing numbers and more consistency in their rushing game than the Buccaneers '04 rushers did; b) the Bears have a significantly better O-line than the Buccaneers; the Bears O-line got even better by way of their offseason acquisitions this year while the Buccaneers O-line may be even weaker this year than last; c) the Buccaneers are in salary-cap hell and are a team who is on the verge of fluctuating between poor and mediocre for some time to come, which is not good for a rookie running back entering that, whereas, the Bears seem to be a team on the upswing; the Buccaneers, based on their financial situation are pasting together (most of their) parts, whereas, the Bears really do seem to be "building" and moving "forward"; d) Benson, like both Bears BIG-time RB's Gayle Sayers and Walter Payton, was drafted fourth overall; e) head coach Jon Gruden of the Buccaneers has been known to be a bit of a RBBC guy, whereas, Lovie Smith seems to be more of a one-back guy; f) Thomas Jones is less of a threat to Cedric Benson in the north-south, plow-ahead system the Bears are now going to go forward with than Michael Pittman and Charlie Garner, both stylistically suitable to Gruden's offense and semi-real threats, are to Carnell Williams in Tampa Bay; g) Benson, with respect to body build, type and stature, is a more physically prototypical NFL back than Williams.

2. Yes, my downgrading Ronnie Brown is very much so about Ricky Williams's comeback... combined with Brown's holdout. However, contrary to what Philly states about fantasy footballers' not having to care about a back's blocking ability, it is great that he is so polished coming in, including being a great blocker. Look no further than Kevan Barlow whose poor blocking abilities stunted his early growth in the NFL and still may be holding him back from being a real go-to back. But, anyway, Brown's polish is tarnishing real fast with every missed day of camp,... moreover, while Ricky Williams gets a new coat of polish put on with each and every day he is there.

3. Charlie Frye versus Jason Campbell... Frye just seemed to make more of MUCH LESS in college. Campbell quarterbacked one of the top teams in the nation, mind you NOT to a National Title. He always had behind him an AWESOME tailback (C. Williams or Brown) to take the heat off of him and an awesome O-line in front of him protecting him. Also, I think the young Patrick Ramsey will be given a REAL opportunity to be the Redskins' quarterback of the future while Trent Dilfer is an obvious stop-gap guy. If Ramsey succeeds, mind you a BIG "IF", Campbell may not see the light of day barring injury. Whereas, Frye will, in all likelihood, at least get a chance to be Cleveland's guy at some point. I expect the Browns to be making the transition and Frye to be under center by no later than Week 14. On the other hand, everything is up in the air with Campbell. When you hear or read about Frye, it often comes with the term "heir apparent"; whereas, I very rarely hear or read that said of Campbell,... at least as of yet.

4. Mark Clayton, though they say he is the most polished of the rookies, is tiny. Maybe he can jump, but he'll have to. He is just one of those guys who I see as having an at best average to just above-average career. Edwards, Williams and Williamson just have better upswings in the long-run, which could start being realized as early as Week 10 of this season, than Clayton even though he may end up with the best numbers, by a little bit, than the others this year.

5. Frank Gore would be great. His problem is the team he went to. They'll be playing comeback and airing it out if anything. I just see Alex Smith and some other running back than they currently have being part of the resurgent 49ers... in 2007 or 2008...

6. ... In the meantime, however, Smith may put up some unexpectedly gaudy numbers playing comeback ball in a secondary-poor division.

7. Regarding Maurice Clarett, I just think that, based on body build, type and stature and style of play, he is the ultimately best-suited tailback for Denver's offense of the ones they currently have. Shanahan did not move all the way up to round three to not give this guy a shot at some point though that point may not be until '06 or '07 when Shanny pulls a Portis with Bell. Also, I think his Ohio State situation was blown out of proportion. I just see him as a kid who leads way too much with his chin. He'll grow up. He's not a druggie (or at least that's not been the knock against him), so out with the Lawrence Philips comparisons.

Title: Re: Ranking the Rookies
Post by Philly on Jul 26^th, 2005, 4:00pm

on 07/26/05 at 13:55:50, StegRock wrote:

d) Benson, like both Bears BIG-time RB's Gayle Sayers and Walter Payton, was drafted fourth overall;

[smiley=pullleeeeeeeze.gif]

Quote:

2. Yes, my downgrading Ronnie Brown is very much so about Ricky Williams's comeback... combined with Brown's holdout.

If you're looking for immediate help, then Brown isn't the best pick amongst the group. If you're looking long-term, then he's got to be #1 or #2. But his hold-out potential has me concerned as well.

Quote:

3. Charlie Frye versus Jason Campbell... Frye just seemed to make more of MUCH LESS in college.

...against MUCH LESS as well... [smiley=newbie.gif]

Quote:

Campbell quarterbacked one of the top teams in the nation, mind you NOT to a National Title.

Because of a screwed up bowl system. He did everything he could to give his team a chance to get to the title game. Don't pin that one on the QB. [smiley=no.gif]

Quote:

Also, I think the young Patrick Ramsey will be given a REAL opportunity to be the Redskins' quarterback of the future while Trent Dilfer is an obvious stop-gap guy. If Ramsey succeeds, mind you a BIG "IF", Campbell may not see the light of day barring injury. Whereas, Frye will, in all likelihood, at least get a chance to be Cleveland's guy at some point. I expect the Browns to be making the transition and Frye to be under center by no later than Week 14. On the other hand, everything is up in the air with Campbell. When you hear or read about Frye, it often comes with the term "heir apparent"; whereas, I very rarely hear or read that said of Campbell,... at least as of yet.

I think it's very clear what Gibbs thinks of Ramsey. He brought in Brunell and paid him a ton. When he realized Brunell wasn't the answer, they traded up to get Jason Campbell in the first round of the draft. Frye was a third round pick. Ramsey will get a chance to lead the team again, but is there any reason to think he'll succeed when the coach clearly doesn't believe in him?

Quote:

4. Mark Clayton, though they say he is the most polished of the rookies, is tiny. Maybe he can jump, but he'll have to.

He runs precise routes and gets open. He catches the ball well and runs well after the catch. He's a legit 5' 10", which, by the way is about the average size of an NFL cornerback. So he's not that "tiny". He is almost exactly the same size as Derrick Mason, a guy I know you are fond of.

Title: Re: Ranking the Rookies
Post by StegRock on Jul 26^th, 2005, 4:50pm

on 07/26/05 at 16:00:51, Philly wrote:

[smiley=pullleeeeeeeze.gif]

While I TOTALLY agree that this kind of stuff is TOTAL fluff and completely "unanalytical", my spiritual side tells me that these kinds of things have "cosmic" relevance and shouldn't just be ignored altogether.

Title: Re: Ranking the Rookies
Post by DB on Jul 26^th, 2005, 9:58pm

Quote:

Benson, with respect to body build, type and stature, is a more physically prototypical NFL back than Williams.

They are listed 1" and 5 lbs. apart, so I dont understand what you mean here.

I don't know if any of you guys (Stegeman?) has seen these guys play in college and I am curious for the opinion of someone who has. I've read what the magazines say and I understand about Gruden's RBBC stuff and the o-line stuff, but I havent seen them play.

I remember seeing Kevin Jones play in college and thinking "wow" this guy is going to kick ass in the NFL (I remember thinking that about Kijana Carter too).

So, I don't know who will do better this year. I guess all three should be very good like the guys last year. My only gut feeling is that the Tampa O was pretty good last year (good QB stats and WR stats). The Bears and Dolphins don't have the same offensive talent at least at the other skills position, so Cadillac may having more scoring chances (although I think the Bears will improve and I like Rex Grossman).

Also, I wonder if the fact that Kevin, Julius and SJax did so well last year is the reason 3 RBs were drafted in the top 5. Are they that much more talented this year? Last year, SJax was the top RB taken at 17, Kevin Jones went at the end of the round and Julius was round 2.

Title: Re: Ranking the Rookies
Post by Philly on Jul 27^th, 2005, 10:13am

From the official measurements at the NFL Combine:

Cadillac Williams: 5' 10.7" - 217 lbs.
Cedric Benson: 5' 10.4" - 222 lbs.
Ronnie Brown: 6' 0.2" - 233 lbs.
JJ Arrington: 5' 8.7" - 214 lbs.

The main difference is not their size, but their running styles. Cedric Benson is a Ricky Williams clone. He runs between the tackles and gets most of his yards after first contact. He breaks tackles and runs over people. He has decent speed, but he's not going to turn the corner too often.

Cadillac Williams is more like a Priest Holmes type of back. He's versatile. He can catch the ball (reasonably well), he can run between the tackles, he has the speed to be a cutback runner and turn the corner.

Ronnie Brown came on strong last year and earned himself the right to be the top back selected. He has the best measurables of the backs listed. He can do it all - run (outside and inside), catch, block, and he's a class act on top of it all.

Coming into the 2004 season, Cadillac Williams and Cedric Benson were expected to be better NFL prospects than Kevin Jones and S-Jax were a year ago. If you recall, there was a lot of questioning when the Boys passed on S-Jax and K-Jones and waited to get Julius Jones later.

The final piece is to look at each of the situations. JJ Arrington may have the best situation. Almost certain starter in an improving offense. Cedric Benson would be next - definite starter in an offense on the rise with an off. coordinator who loves the power running game. Then it's a toss-up. Both Ronnie Brown and Caddy play on declining offenses with other backs in the mix. I think Ronnie Brown is the better back (having seen both play last season), but Caddy may have the better situation of the two right away.

Title: Re: Ranking the Rookies
Post by DB on Jul 27^th, 2005, 4:39pm

Good stuff. Thanks. :-*

The only thing I will take issue with Philly is your assessment of the offenses. Yes, Chicago's "O" should improve, but that is not saying much. They were ranked last in offense in the NFL last year and it was not even close. They ranked a distant last, meaning even Baltimore's sorry "O" was better. Tampa was ranked 22 in the middle of a big pack of other teams with similar numbers, but (from a fantasy perspective) some of their players were good to have, including Pittman, Brian Greise and Clayton.

On the other hand, Tampa's D is supposed to decline, which Chicago's should improve ... perhaps meaning more passing for Tampa (shootouts) and more running for Chicago.

Title: Re: Ranking the Rookies
Post by sameoldsameold on Jul 27^th, 2005, 10:28pm

i have a hard time believing that JJ arrington will be the top back this year....i do believe he is extremely overrated at this point and i would rather have Ronnie Brown in a Dynasty League and Cedric Benson in a redraft league.....my personal thoughts...

Title: Re: Ranking the Rookies
Post by KillerKingSting on Jul 28^th, 2005, 3:21am

on 07/27/05 at 10:13:08, Philly wrote:

Then it's a toss-up. Both Ronnie Brown and Caddy play on declining offenses with other backs in the mix. I think Ronnie Brown is the better back (having seen both play last season), but Caddy may have the better situation of the two right away.

With all due respect Philster,
Miami can hardly be considered to have a "declining" offense.

Theres no where to go but up from last year IMO.

My 2 cents:
JJ Arrington isn't over-rated. Denny Green knows his offensive players and like Philly said, he is in a great situation. It also helps that the guy has BIG PLAY flare.

You take Ronnie for 2-3 years down the road and Caddy for now.

Benson is elite.

He won't last as long as the others though - in years to come.

Title: Re: Ranking the Rookies
Post by Philly on Jul 28^th, 2005, 9:16am

on 07/28/05 at 03:21:21, KillerKingSting wrote:

With all due respect Philster,
Miami can hardly be considered to have a "declining" offense.

Theres no where to go but up from last year IMO.

That's fairly true... they can't get much lower, but I don't see them ascending yet. They still don't have a QB. They still don't have an O-line. They only have one WR. Their TE is a wife-beater who will get his due before long.

Title: Re: Ranking the Rookies
Post by KillerKingSting on Jul 28^th, 2005, 12:47pm

on 07/28/05 at 09:16:54, Philly wrote:

. They still don't have a QB.

Yea, its a yucky situation - maybe feely will grow from another year's experience.

Quote:

They still don't have an O-line.

If anything, the OLINE will BEE better. If w/out any other reason, the addition of Hudson Houck - the much heralded NFL offensive line coach, is an upgrade w/out the addition of a star grunt-blocker.

Carey will have one more year's experience under his belt and should improve his play.

McDougle was a nice addition as well.

Quote:

They only have one WR.

They have 2. Booker is still a decent #2 option in the NFL.

Quote:

Their TE is a wife-beater who will get his due before long.

Agreed. I am getting sick of character issues that seem wide spread among players who are getting millions of dollars to do something that most of us would dream of doing.