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        the Gridiron >> the Red Zone >>  Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
        
(Message started by: steelkings on Aug 5^th, 2007, 10:42am)

Title: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by steelkings on Aug 5^th, 2007, 10:42am

I play in a scoring only league. I'm looking for help with what Running back to draft. I pick in the third spot. With the silly keeper rules we play with, I could move up 1 spot if the guy in front of me keeps Joe Addai.
Note* In our league you sacrifice a draft spot 3 positions higher than where you drafted a guy the year before.

So, heres the keeper Backs that are off the board.

Willy parker
Brandon Jacobs
Ahman Green
Mo Drew Jones
Larry Johnson
Larry Maroney
Duece Mcallister
Deangelo Williams
Travis Henry
Lendale White
Frank Gore
Jerious Norwood

The guy with the first pick needs to decide to either save Addai with his 1st pick or throw him back in the pile. Seems like an easy decision except he's a huge Colts fan. I would not even be suprised if he tossed Addai and picked up Manning. Although LT is a big first prize. Now not to get more confusing, But the top 6 finishers of the "turd bowl" (Tourney for the bottem 6 finishers) Get to Choose thier draft position. Our draft is a snake draft. So The guy with addai could keep addai and pick the 6th drafting spot to sacrifice, thusly moving up 6 spots in the second round. Ok, lets take two advil and move on.

I'd Imagine that because I dont have the first pick I wont get at LT. There are alot of ways to go with 2nd or third pick. I could even take the 6th spot and move up in the 2nd round. Lots to consider here.
Your thoughts please

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by StegRock on Aug 6^th, 2007, 5:37am

What exactly are your (likely) options??? ?.?.? Right now, I'm just... [smiley=uh.gif]

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by steelkings on Aug 6^th, 2007, 6:51am

Picking in the 2nd or 3rd spot.

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by captainpurple on Aug 6^th, 2007, 8:21am

on 08/05/07 at 10:42:42, steelkings wrote:

With the silly keeper rules we play with...

no kidding! ;D

so who's your keeper? Do you have to decide what you'll do before you know if you're picking 2nd or third? What are the scoring rules?

at first glance, I'd say stay where you are. Take Jackson at #2 if you can (duh! ;) ). I don't think I'd drop to 6th. The top tier is only 2 deep in my opinion (LT and Jackson), so it might seem prudent to drop to 6th, but with that list of keepers, you're down to Zander, McGahee, Rudi, MoJo & Westbrook as the next 5 top runners (arguably). The 1st 3 of that list would be fine (by me) @ 6, but if you get stuck with MoJo or Westy at 6, that's too high IMHO. So I'd stay at #3 and ensure you get Zander at 3.

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by steelkings on Aug 6^th, 2007, 9:10am

Travis Henry and Lenny White are mine. I give a 8th round pick to keep White and a 7th for Henry. I'm also keeping Lienart for a 6th rounder.

My thought would be to choose the 5th or 6th pick, Moving myself up in the 2nd round and possibly taking Manning. The problem with that is that the Colts are dropping like flys over in camp. That team could go south in a hurry this year.

TD pass = 4
Rush TD = 6
Rec TD = 6
FG = 3

Starters= 1qb+1RB+2WR+ 1 K + Swing of either RB or WR. 6 total players

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by StegRock on Aug 6^th, 2007, 2:46pm

on 08/06/07 at 08:21:07, captainpurple wrote:

at first glance, I'd say stay where you are. Take Jackson at #2 if you can (duh! ;) ). I don't think I'd drop to 6th. The top tier is only 2 deep in my opinion (LT and Jackson), so it might seem prudent to drop to 6th, but with that list of keepers, you're down to Zander, McGahee, Rudi, MoJo & Westbrook as the next 5 top runners (arguably). The 1st 3 of that list would be fine (by me) @ 6, but if you get stuck with MoJo or Westy at 6, that's too high IMHO. So I'd stay at #3 and ensure you get Zander at 3.

What he said,... except, by a hair, I'd go with Rudi, currently #6 at StegsList.com (http://www.stegslist.com), at #3 over Alexander, currently #9 at StegsList.com (http://www.stegslist.com).

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by Philly on Aug 6^th, 2007, 3:56pm

I'd probably go ahead and drop back to the 6th spot and move up in the 2nd round. (How long do you have to make that decision? Can you wait to see what happens early in the draft and then make the call? If the guy keeps Addai, then don't move because SJax is worth staying at #3 for.)

I just had a draft with my 12-team money league this past weekend. The picks went: LT2, SJax, LJ, Zander, Manning!, Gore, Rudi, Addai, Parker, Henry, BWB, and then Brady/Marvin on the flip. (I grabbed Rudi at 1.07 and then landed McGahee at 2.06 on the way back!)

So let's say the guy doesn't keep Addai (which he shouldn't -- not for the 1.01 pick). He'll probably (95%+) go with LT2 at #1 overall. If he doesn't, he'll go with Manning, which helps push a better back to you.

So LT2 is 1, SJax is 2, LJ is a keeper so that makes Zander the likely #3. You'll probably have to choose from Rudi, Addai, Parker, or Manning at #6. If Manning has done well historically in your league, then draft him at #6 because you already have a first-round FF back in Henry on your roster. Then moving up in round #2 will likely net you another solid starting RB (RBrown, McGahee, Bush, TJones, CBenson) in round 2.

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by DirkDiggler on Aug 6^th, 2007, 4:11pm

on 08/06/07 at 15:56:05, Philly wrote:

This is a GREAT analysis and I agree completely!!

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by MordecaiCourage on Aug 6^th, 2007, 4:12pm

on 08/06/07 at 15:56:05, Philly wrote:

[smiley=bullseye.gif]

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by StegRock on Aug 6^th, 2007, 6:15pm

Okay,... I think I'm starting to get this...

This point of Jeff's is very [smiley=key.gif]...

on 08/06/07 at 15:56:05, Philly wrote:

(How long do you have to make that decision? Can you wait to see what happens early in the draft and then make the call? If the guy keeps Addai, then don't move because SJax is worth staying at #3 for.)

That said, the guy would be a TOTAL idiot to not drop Addai and take Tomlinson with the 1.01 pick. Furthermore, given what my ultimate suggestion is going to be here, it's a bit moot.

Quote:

So LT2 is 1, SJax is 2, LJ is a keeper so that makes Zander the likely #3. You'll probably have to choose from Rudi, Addai, Parker, or Manning at #6. If Manning has done well historically in your league, then draft him at #6 because you already have a first-round FF back in Henry on your roster. Then moving up in round #2 will likely net you another solid starting RB (RBrown, McGahee, Bush, TJones, CBenson) in round 2.

Alright... This is going to be a stream of consciousness... [smiley=zenmaster.gif] Since you have Henry, if you think you can get Manning at #6, this is the best path. But, if you don't, I think you'll be giving up a little bit at running back... in the sense that I think the difference between #6 and #3 will be slightly greater than the difference between a lower 2nd rounder and a higher one... because in round 2 I think we're talking a tier down. So, the difference is in terms of magnitude (of tiers, i.e., the differences in the top tier/toward the top in general are a bit more clear-cut and slightly greater than are the differences as you go down). Point being, I don't think you should be concerned with losing out a tier of RB's, i.e. in round 1 you are generally working in the top tier of RB's and in round 2 you are generally working in the second tier of RB's. In even other words, you're probably looking at a VERY similar, if not the same exact, RB in round 2, regardless of which pick you have. That will definitely not be the case in round 1, with perhaps the single exception being the varying views of Shaun Alexander entering this season. Of course, (I think ?.?.?) you haven't told us how far you'd exactly move up in the second round if you decide to drop to #5/#6. The difference between the #1 pick of round 2 and the last pick in round 2 or something like that would SURELY influence my analysis here. In that case, I would probably just say go with Jeff's advice. But, as I see things now, the main difference really is in round 1. Do you want #2/#3 or #5/#6? In all honesty, my instinct is to push the envelope on you here. If Manning really is that good in this league, sk, and you already have Henry, why not keep the #2/#3 pick and commit to taking Manning with it yourself??? If you don't get him, that means you get Jackson. [smiley=woohoo.gif]

...

[offtopic]Of course,... we've already put enough good thought into a scoring-only league than ever should be. ;)[/offtopic]

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by steelkings on Aug 8^th, 2007, 9:26pm

THIS JUST IN!

The guy with the first choice opted for the 12th/13th pick. I now have the 2nd pick if I so choose. Is Jackson the man? Remember, This is a scoring only league. Lots of stuff i'm reading has him down the list on TD"s.

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by captainpurple on Aug 9^th, 2007, 12:41am

I don't see any other RB that would score better than Jackson. Peyton will throw more with a poor defense this year (IMO), so I've projected him at 36-38 TDs. That's 144-152 pts. Jackson will be part of a high powered offense, but Torry Holt, Drew Bennett and Randy McMichael will steal a lot of TDs. Jackson is a sure fire #2 in most leagues, but I still only project him at 17 TDs due to some tough defenses on the sked. That's 102 pts.

So the only player I see getting you a better total score is Peyton.

That being said, I'd still take Jackson. You can still hopefully get on of the top 6 QBs (as I've ranked them anyway) in the 2nd (Peyton, Palmer, Brees, Brady, Romo, Bulger). Romo is a personal pick, that many disagree with, and Bulger might be a tough pick if you have Jackson, but you could go with McNabb in the 3rd as well.

A lot of rambling here, but in short, I'd still take Jackson.

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by StegRock on Aug 9^th, 2007, 2:58am

I agree with a lot of cp's analysis (and Phil's, for that matter), but this is where I peel off. As per my post above, I say man-up and go with Manning. QB's of his caliber, really he is in a class by himself, won't be had with your now late (as far as I know) second rounder. But, there'll be a Benson, Jones, McAllister, or someone like that waiting to be scooped up and paired up with Henry (and LenDale) to make for a hell of a backfield... behind the MAN(ning). ;)

Title: Re: Looking for Draft advice from the Masters
Post by Philly on Aug 9^th, 2007, 9:40am

Yikes... this is a tough decision. Since it is a scoring only league (never played in one of those, so I'm not too familiar with how things generally run), I might be inclined, too, to go with Peyton Manning. SJax will be rolling up the yards, but he might lose a few goal line carries to Brian Leonard. I think I agree with Steg here. Shoot for someone like Cedric Benson (who will get the endzone chances) in the 2nd round to pair with Henry.