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Title: A Lengthy Thread About Young WR's Post by Keyshawn Johnson 76yards on Feb 20th, 2003, 10:02pm When I started this analysis it was to focus on WRs that are entering their 3rd year. That is the year that WRs are supposed to finally assimilate everything and ;become. Personally, I think it is a myth. If you look at the history of WRs it has been quicker for some and slower for some and for some a change of scenery either resulted in improved performance or decreased performance. Dynamics such as a coaching change have also resulted in changes. I am not going to get into deep analysis about all those dynamics here but just present the data along with my opinion, however humble it may be. I am breaking these down into categories as much as possible and binning players where I see them. The first group will be receivers entering their 3rd year. I used data from CNNSI.com and it is possible I left some guys off and maybe even added a person or two that doesn't merit mention. Nonetheless, I was bored and without further ado, here is my analysis;. 3rd year Can't Miss: Chris Chambers: 48-883-7 52-734-3 I think we all expected more out of him this past season. I think the loss of Fiedler actually hurt him part of the season, the trade of Ricky Williams, and a concussion that he had hurt his production. I would expect 80-1100-10 out of him this season. Rod Gardner: 46-741-4 71-1006-8 It is clear that Gardner will benefit from Spurrier's playbook. There have been knocks on his concentration and consistency but that is not uncommon for young players. If he stays clean of character and out of Spurrier's doghouse there is no limit to what he can do there. I see big numbers in crystal ball for the Ramsey-Gardner connection. For the coming season I project 90-1300-12. Chad Johnson: 28-329-1 69-1166-5 Check your drafts for last year and find out where Chad Johnson was drafted. Heck, check any receiver for the Bungles. I have him as a keeper in one of my fantasy leagues and didn't pick him up until week 11. I know the situation in Cincy scares everybody; Kitna doesn't have a glowing resume but once they settled on Kitna, he and Johnson developed chemistry. Going into the season with Kitna as the declared starter has got to merit strong consideration for a big season from Johnson. I see 90-1300-10 for him. I think Cincy has some good young receivers that may take some of the heat off him and prevent some of the double teams (they'll be mentioned later and none of them are named Warrick). Quincy Morgan: 30-432-2 56-964-7 Another surprise for the season and a guy that may have not been drafted last year. It was difficult to read the situation in Cleveland throughout the year with the QB controversy going on between Couch and Holcomb. That looks to continue this year but I'm sure will get resolved eventually. The surprise for me in Cleveland was the de-making of KJ. His numbers were not what was expected and Morgan benefited. I see him continuing to emerge with 75-1050-8 this year. Koren Robinson: 39-536-1 78-1240-5 I think we were all happy to see that Koren is the real deal. It kind of started out slow but but the end of the season, he and Hasselbeck were on the same page and putting up scary numbers for opposing defenses. The nice thing about Robinson is he has D-Jack on the other side, who was injured this year and you can't afford to double both those guys so I see him blossoming to full star status this year and possibly emerging into elite status, a la Harrison, Owens, Moss, etc. Check back with me by the end of next season and tell me I'm full of crap but I really see him at 100-1600-15. Too bad I don't have him on any of my keeper rosters and none of the other owners want to trade him; I wonder why! Steve Smith: 10-154-0 54-872-3 He's probably the least deserving of a spot here. I don't know if I should call him & can't miss because he benefited from Muhammed's injuries and Carolina was usually behind and had to throw the ball to somebody. I think his future really has a lot to do with the establishment of a quality QB in Carolina, as are all receivers. I think there are questions about his character, as well. I see him around 70-1000-7 this year. Reggie Wayne: 27-345-0 49-716-4 Marvin Harrison continues to amaze and Reggie is reaping the benefits. But Reggie is due some credit here. He really is doing the things necessary to be a quality wideout in the NFL. He should continue to improve and I see him posting 75-1100-8 this year, taking away some of Marvin's catches as he shows he is a viable option for Peyton on a consistent basis. 3rd Year Keep An Eye on Them: This list consists of guys that could be broken into different categories but I don't want to put too much granularity in the analysis since I'm not being paid for it. ;o) These are guys that may not get drafted and if they do, it will probably be in the latter rounds. But each year there are some surprises and it would not surprise me if some of the guys on this list are one of the surprises. Scotty Anderson: 12-211-1 25-322-1 It's possible that he did even as well as he did more because Az-Hakim, and Schroeder didn't do as well as expected along with Crowell's continued slow recovery from injury. Crowell will probably be a cap casualty this season. I'm not sure what the contract status on the other two guys are but the Lions just don't have a good situation at WR and somebody has to benefit. I see them drafting Rogers who unless he flops will start, and Anderson possibly emerges as the 3rd receiver and maybe even 2nd if these other two guys don't work out. As far as I'm concerned Hakim was over-rated and a product of the system in St. Louis. He should go back to return duty. Schroeder is just too slow. I don't see Anderson putting up big numbers but 50-700-5 is within realm. Drew Bennett: 24-329-1 33-478-2 Has great size (6' 5" - 202) and great hands and should benefit from the sure loss of Kevin Dyson through free agency. I'm not sure what kind of speed he has but he is able to get separation and doesn't drop many balls. He is one of my sleepers this year and I see him at 60-900-7 with possible upside from there. T.J. Houshmanzadeh: 21-228-0 41-492-1 Unless this guy has any brother's with future NFL potential he should be more than a last name that will never repeat in the NFL. He had a good career at Oregon State and showed improvement over last year's production. Warrick has not lived up to expectations in Cincy and unless Lewis lights a fire under him hee will be a casualty when his contract ends. House is the most likely beneficiary and could just beat Warrick outright for the #2 job. There has been talk that Cincy needs a WR to pair with Johnson either through the draft or free agency but I'm not convinced they can't get it done with House. I see him with 65-700-5 this year. Justin McCareins: 3-88-0 19-301-2 I must confess that I don't honestly know a great deal about him. He posted some stats this year that were respectable and Tennesee is going to have to find a wideout with Dyson leaving. If he gets the job over Bennett (which I don't think) he may post decent numbers. I see him as the #3 and seeing numbers around 40-500-4. I mostly added him to the list because he is a 3rd year receiver and does merit keeping an eye on. Snoop Minnis: 33-511-1 1-4-0 After his rookie season there was some hype headed into the season. I know many that were disappointed when he went down with injury but he has all the tools. If he comes back from his injury he may emerge this year in what is becoming a strong offense in KC. How he does depends on where he falls in the depth chart. Morton was a disappointment and unless he figures things out somebody has to step up. Boerigter was a big surprise and one of the hot waiver wire pickups during the season. Kennison seemed to find himself this year in KC. So, it depends on how things shake out there in KC. At best, I see him as a #3 unless Morton just really goes further in the tank (he's getting paid too much), and Kennison goes back to doing what he did, and Boerigter was a one year wonder. He will be fortunate to see 40-600-4 type numbers but I think they may be optimistic. Robert Ferguson: ?-?-? 22-293-3 I know this is his 3rd year but for some reason SI did not have his rookie stats. There is a lot of hope and hype in Green Bay surrounding him and Walker. Walker appears to be the one getting most consideration for #2 with Driver but maybe Ferguson will reach deep down and find the WR everyone thought he would be. I'm not convinced. He shows the same lapses in concentration that other young receivers do but I just don't feel; the pending improvement. But, hey, who knows. He will either emerge this year or flop. If he doesn't grow, I don't see Green Bay investing any more time in him. I see, at best, 40-500-4 type numbers but he may surprise us all. David Terrell: 34-415-4 9-127-3 There seems to be a lot of hype surrounding him going into this season and for the life of me, I don't know why. Chicago's QB situation is about as bad as any in the league and I just don't see it getting better this year. Terrell missed most of the season with a bad foot but he could be a surprise this year, as well. I'm not even going to project numbers for him because I have little confidence in the Bears offense and I'm not convinced he's all that. Just a guy worth watching in pre-season. Derrius Thompson: 3-52-1 53-773-4 The guy has got to love Steve Spurrier. Nobody had ever heard of this guy (least I hadn't or anyone else I know) before this season. Who knew what the heck was going to happen in DC when Spurrier changed his offense about as often as he changed his underwear. Nonetheless, Thompson benefited and posted some decent numbers and found himself on fantasy rosters across the land. He is a free agent this year and probably feeling pretty good about things and asking somebody to show him the money. I am sure someone will but if he's smart he will stay with the Skins where he should benefit from the offense there rather than go off to another team where he isn't likely to shine. If he stays in Washington he could emerge as the #2 alongside Gardner. If not I really don't see him doing much with most teams. Santana Moss: 2-40-0 30-433-4 Poor guy has been hit by the injury bug and everyone wants to see what this guy can do in a full season. I think he's got it and I think he and Coles could be a very nice tandem in the NFL. I see him taking Chrebet's job out of camp and psoting numbers along the line of 65-900-6 this season. Freddie Mitchell: 21-283-1 12-105-0 Ever feel like life is passing you by; like your 15 minutes of fame are up? That is Freddie Mitchell. This guy will never be the receiver he is projected to be and will likely bounce around the league until he bounces out of it. God, am I really that negative??? 4th year Receivers That May or May Not Blossom: This list consists of receivers that are entering their 4th year that seem to be moving a little slow but showed some potential last year. In a few cases they are actually past their 4th year but situations changed that indicated they bear some watching. Ron Dixon: 6-92-1 8-227-1 22-377-2 His stock went up when Hilliard went down but just when he got his chance, he got hurt. Blazing speed with Potential written all over him. If Hilliard signs on somewhere else this could be his year. If not, he could be a decent #3 in New York. I see improved numbers but won't project until I know what is going to happen in New York. Ron Dugans: 14-125-1 28-251-2 47-421-0 Another guy that saw some improvement with Kitna's turnaround last season. He could emerge as a viable #2 or #3 in Cincy and post continued improvement. He needs to find the end zone though. I would guess that no one in the league caught as many passes as he did without finding his way into the end zone. Trevor Gaylor: 13-182-1 14-217-0 25-385-3 Gaylor was traded from the Chargers to the Falcons right after pre-season and had a decent showing for a guy with a new playbook. I don't have a good read on who will emerge on the depth chart in Atlanta but it's clear the Falcons will either look for somebody in free agency or draft someone. Finneran put together a nice season but I don't know if he's the answer. Gaylor was not somebody I had my eye on going into the season so I'm a little unsure of his prospects. But he does bear watching. Jerry Porter: 1-6-0 19-220-0 51-688-9 Every Jerry Porter owner wished they could have just taken the reigns from Callahan last year and push Brown aside and give the job to Porter. This is his 4th year and he appears to be an undiscovered talent. The story out here in the bay area is that Gruden treated him like his red-headed stepchild and obviously couldn't unseast tow future HOF'ers to give him work so he languished until Callahan took over. Porter will end up starting next year and if you believe it he could post some pretty strong numbers. If he starts, numbers on the order of 85-1200-12 are not out of the realm. Brian Finneran: 2-21-0 7-60-0 23-491-3 56-838-6 His emergence ties directly to the emergence of Vick. I'm not sure what he was doing the 1st two years but they don't count. This is like his 3rd year. I am not biased or reverse-biased but I am just not a big fan of slow white receivers. I never drafted Eddie McCaffrey and not likely to draft Finneran but you can't deny his accomplishments this past year. I suspect he will but up even better numbers this year with Vick, who is projected to improve drastically the coming season. Atlanta needs receivers but right now he is the best they have. Heck, 80-1200-10 is possible, so why wouldn't I draft that? Maybe I will if he sticks around the board long enough. Dennis Northcutt: 39-422-0 18-211-0 38-601-5 He has been wearing the potential label since coming into the NFL and last year started to show why. I know he is showing up on some leagues as a keeper and may deserve consideration. Again, it depends on how the QB istuation shakes out and who really emerges as the primary receivers in Cleveland but it could be Northcutt and Morgan. I think 60-900-8 is not highly unlikely. Todd Pinkston: 10-181-0 42-586-4 60-798-7 Skinny, spindly, lacks durability;looks like he'd break if you hit him. These are all descriptors used for Pinkston. The fact is that he learned how to get open this past season, he is 6' 2" and can get over some of the shorter corners in the league and he was the leading receiver for the Eagles this past season. I believe this next season will be his year to shut up all the neigh-sayers that used all the descriptors above. I see him around 80-1100-12 this year. call me crazy. Travis Taylor: 28-276-3 42-560-3 61-869-6 It's difficult to say how good he is without a decent QB. Let's face it, catching passes from Trent Dilfer in that grind-it-out defense minded team did not make him a fantasy stud. Chris Redman and Jeff Blake don't conjure up any visions of greatness either. But his numbers last year showed that he may live up to the hype that has surrounded him. He is a quality receiver and a guy I will be targeting as a #3 type receiver on my roster. I would look for him as a #2 if he was in a better offense. 75-1050-10 would not be unexpected this year. Dez White: 10-87-1 45-428-0 51-656-4 You can't deny that he has shown steady improvement each year. No one expected him to do as well as he did last year with other options in Booker, Robinson, Terrell, but I think he benefited primarily because Robinson never seemed to come back, Terrell got hurt, and the running game never got on track. Personally, I think he over-achieved. He is a free agent this year and I would be surprised if he does as well as he did this year; but I could be wrong. |
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Title: Re: A Lengthy Thread About Young WR's Post by Keyshawn Johnson 76yards on Feb 21st, 2003, 7:27am Guys Coming Off Rookie Years (no projections): Marc Boerigter: 20-420-8 I'll bet this guy went through the year in some leagues never getting onto a roster. He came out of nowhere to post decent numbers for a rookie. Star in the making? Is he the reincarnation of McCaffrey? Deion Branch: 43-489-2 Is he the making of a former receiver by this name who left his legacy on the game? I like the guy a lot and say he is the #2, beating out Patten, who drops far too many passes. Antonio Bryant: 44-733-6 Outstanding rookie numbers.. .especially for a holdout. He talked the talk and it loks like he can walk the walk. It will be very interesting to watch how a mouth like his meshes with Parcells. Parcells doesn't have a problem with egos as long as you know he's the boss and you toe the line. If Bryant toes the line, he could be a future elite star in the league. Reche Caldwell: 22-208-3 A good young target for Brees to hook up with in the coming years. He isn't a blazer but has great hands and was actually projected as a batter receiver than college teammate Jabar Gaffney. He had some hamstring problems during the year, but he is definitely a guy worth watching. Andre Davis: 37-420-6 It seems like every time you turned around the guy was putting it in the endzone, at least the 1st part of the season. He seemed to taper off in the 2nd half of the season. He had a rep of dropping balls in college when he was catching them from Mr. Vick but looked pretty strong for a rookie. Strong upside and somebody to think about in your dynasty league, or any other league, for that matter. Jabar Gaffney: 41-483-1 It's tough being on an expansion team and the fact that he only saw the end zone once is a testament of that. Nonetheless you have to like the thought of him and Carr and whoever is going to emerge as the #2 over the years. He could be a star in the making. Ashley Lelie: 35-525-2 The only reason he didn't have a stronger rookie year was because he had Rod Smith and Easy Ed in front of him. The guard is changing in Denver and he will emerge as a starter this year. I see star in the making. Jason McAddley: 25-362-1 Most of those numbers were in the latter part of the year after Sanders once again proved he wasn't the answer and Martay Jenkins got hurt. Jerry Sullivan, WR's coach has done an admirable job developing some good young receivers in Arizona; it's just a shame they don't have a QB. I think McAddley has strong upside and may be the best WR on this list you've never heard of. Darnerian McCants: 21-256-2 Cool name but he may end up just being a guy that was on the receiving end of the fun and gun. A 5th round pick out of Deleware State (not a school known for populating the NFL), it is difficult to project anything until we know how things will shape up in DC. Eric Parker: 17-268-1 Drafted out of Tennessee but really don't know much about him. As the offense develops in San Diego, he is a guy to watch to see where he pecks out at on the depth chart. Curtis Conway will probably be somewhere else next year and he could pair nicely as a nice young tandem with Caldwell. Antwan Randle-El: 47-489-2 Mr. Excitement..the guy is just fun to watch. I don't know how Pittsburgh will end up using this guy but I think the only limitation will be him and how the offense wants to use him. He could post big numbers. Josh Reed: 37-514-2 It depends on what happens with the Peerless Price situation but it appears that the Bills want to keep him. This will slow Reed's stats down but give him more time to develop. I think he is a stud in the making. He's a little short for today's receivers at 5' 10" but he can get open. Donte Stallworth: 42-594-8 On everybody's list for dynasty and keeper leagues and should be on all leagues. Getting in the end zone 8 times as a rookie is unheard of. A definite future star in the NFL. Javon Walker: 23-319-1 Will pair very nicely with Driver in the coming season and should post very nice 2nd year numbers. He wins the battle for #2 over Ferguson and shows why he is a future star in the league. Don't Believe The Hype: I don't know why I even have these guys on here but lest anyone think about drafting them I would reconsider. Dante Hall: A very nice return guy but there is just no room on the roster at WR for him. He'll get in on some plays but unless the landscape changes in KC or his scenery changes I don't see him as an option at WR. Quentin McCord: Had one big game with Vick against the Lions but I don't see him as making an impact. Don't bother. Has a catchy name but that's about it. -Thanks to rmartin55 over at FFToday. |
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Title: Re: A Lengthy Thread About Young WR's Post by Walker Boh on Mar 7th, 2003, 8:24am Great work KJ76. I'll make sure to review this post before the draft next season. [smiley=thumbsup.gif] |
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