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        the Gridiron >> between the 20's >>  Draft Strategy Question?
        
(Message started by: PA Outlaws on Mar 18^th, 2003, 9:30pm)

Title: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by PA Outlaws on Mar 18^th, 2003, 9:30pm

???For the first time, our league is going to require that you play a TE. In the past, we started 3 WR's, but no mandatory TE. I am very excited about this, but TE's have never been that valuable in our league. I was wondering when is too early to draft a TE. I know there are only a few top flight TE's -Heap, Sharpe, Gonzalez. What round to TE's usually go in your drafts. One point per 15 yards receiving and two points per TD. Or, do you think it would be wiser to grab some better WR's and settle for a second tier TE. I know it is hard to answer without actual names of who would be available, but just trying to plan out my stategy early. Thanks in advance...... [smiley=doh.gif]

Title: Re: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by DirkDiggler on Mar 18^th, 2003, 11:09pm

With such minimal amount of points given to a TE, I would hold off until later in the draft and take a TD notorious for TD's but not yardage.

The top TE will usually go in the 5th round.

Title: Re: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by FourTwoOh on Mar 18^th, 2003, 11:20pm

[smiley=bonghit.gif] warning. Hopefully the following makes sense. ;D

I've played in both formats for years and I've come to the point where I basically rank them in with the wr regardless of start requirement. If you're eyeing a Shockey class te, he's still your xth rated wr, so you'd most likely be passing on a your #2 wr, in effect accepting a lesser #2 for a better te. That can work, but I'd prefer wr #2 if the numbers are similar. Without checking, I'm fairly sure I've not taken a #3 wr before my te where they're required for quite some time, but that pts you down in the J Stevens, Miller class more often than not.

Title: Re: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by StegRock on Mar 18^th, 2003, 11:44pm

Well, regrettably fantasy football is being whisked away in this direction of incorporating the mandatory fielding of a tight end. I have played in both kinds of leagues, and I WAY prefer the 3 (or 4) "receiver" (not, by definition, "wide receiver" as tight ends are included) set-up to mandatory tight ends. The value of tight ends in a 3 (or 4) receiver set-up seems to be commensurate with the "offensive," i.e. offensive statistical, value of the position in the "real" game, i.e. in reality, more so than in a system requiring tight ends, which I feel gives the position too much value (and emphasis); hence, this very post.

Anyway, to finally get at answering your question... Don't worry about the position any much more than you would a team defense. Basically, the position is just WAY TOO hard to predict, and if you take one (too) early (as I have done in web site-sponsored and promoted mock drafts), it is really going to hurt (your team). Over the last couple years, the likes of Tony Gonzalez, Marcus Pollard, Chad Lewis, Freddie Jones, etc., etc., were considered locks to have good seasons. [smiley=pullleeeeeeeze.gif] Similar to team defenses, which I think are a necessary evil (you just gotta' represent both sides of the ball somehow), you can get just as lucky late as you can early with a tight end. And, actually the later the better, right? (This, by the way, is another reason for my disgust with the implementation of mandatory tight ends.) Next year, Jeremy Shockey and Todd Heap will be WAY over-valued. DON'T TAKE THE BAIT! There is not an honest soul on earth that will be able to say with any "real" level of certainty that, e.g., the aforementioned first group of four or the likes of Mikhael Ricks, Doug Jolley, Shannon Sharpe (if he doesn't retire), Eric Johnson, Frank Wychek, Ken Dilger, Wesley Walls (if he comes back) etc., etc., will not have better, even perhaps much better, seasons than the latter-mentioned two. Anyway, just in that rambling I named 13 "roughly" equivalent tight ends of the top of my head, and I don't even know tight ends that well. So, if yours is a 12-team league, what really is the difference? The answer: "luck" is the overwhelming factor in what makes the difference between guessing which tight ends will have good numbers in '03 and which ones will not. God, I hate making guys have to deal with this and draft tight ends. [smiley=furious.gif]

In any event, good luck, PA! [smiley=stpat.gif]

Title: Re: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by bgsgfan on Mar 19^th, 2003, 11:00am

I don't know how to describe my exact theory on TEs, Ks, and Ds; but basically I watch the flow of the draft and try to either pick at the start of runs or wait until the end of the draft for all of these positions.

Lets say there are 18 rounds w/ a TE required. I have Gonzo as my top rated TE with Heap, McMichael, and Shockey not far behind and a huge dropoff after that. Gonzo goes top of fifth round - if my turn comes to pick and one of my to four are left (lets say around the bottom of the seventh round) - I might grab him then (depending on other players available). If that type of situation doesn't happen I will probably wait until about the 14th round - before EVERYONE grabs TEs but hopefully right on the cusp of the run - and get a respectable TE. If none of those scenarios works out I'll use one of my last picks and get a guy that looks pretty good.

In theory this worked out exceedingly well for me last year and on many teams I had my second or third ranked TE (Pollard and Sharpe). Alas Pollard totally bombed, but that type of thing is going to happen.

The biggest key to drafting success for me is to know where other people value picks (antsports? has those mock draft rankings - they help) in relation to how I value players. This is THE key to any position. For example, if my top 4 TEs are basically the same as everyone else's, yet my fifth TE is generally considered the 10th best TE; I can wait until about 7 TEs are gone and still get my targetted player. And using the same kind of analyssis, if I have some targetted WRs and backup RBs or QB that I am relatively certain will be available for my later picks, I will go out on a limb and grab a highly ranked TE (Heap, Shockey, etc.) if the timing is right (like I talked about earlier).

Title: Re: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by Walker Boh on Mar 19^th, 2003, 11:27pm

I compare the TE in fantasy football to the Catcher in fantasy baseball. There are only a few that stand out from the rest and you either take one of the "stars" in the earlymid rounds or you wait till the end of the draft to fill the slot. For me, if I can get what I consider to be a #1 TE (Sharpe, Gonzales) in the 6th round or later, I'd take em. Once the select few are gone, the rest are all pretty much the same and there's no sense in use a mid round pick when you can get the same production towards the end of the draft.

Title: Re: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by Keyshawn Johnson 76yards on Mar 30^th, 2003, 4:21pm

I personally love having a TE mandatory lineup set-up. It makes it just like a "real" NFL lineup. I love having a TE because it gives you that X-Factor. The same way a Kicker and a DEF does. They're not regarded as high as QBs and RBs but if you set-up your team right and get the right match-ups a TE, K, or a DEFs points can mean the difference between a win or a loss.

Now, wondering where you should draft a TE. I'd say 4th-6th rounds.

My top 3 picks would have to be.
1)Tony Gonzalez
2)Todd Heap
3)Jeremy Shockey

Title: Re: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by bgsgfan on Mar 30^th, 2003, 8:12pm

on 03/30/03 at 16:21:48, Keyshawn Johnson 76yards wrote:

but if you set-up your team right and get the right match-ups a TE, K, or a DEFs points can mean the difference between a win or a loss.

Last year I used statistical matchup analysis very heavily, evaluating how well opposing teams did against each position. It worked very well with every position EXCEPT TE. I think the reason is that they are so hit and miss. Now, for Ks, Ds and borderline other players - matchups are HUGE.

Title: Re: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by BarnabyWilde on Mar 30^th, 2003, 8:22pm

Agreed. After these three guys, it's a crap shoot.

on 03/30/03 at 16:21:48, Keyshawn Johnson 76yards wrote:

My top 3 picks would have to be.
1)Tony Gonzalez
2)Todd Heap
3)Jeremy Shockey

Title: Re: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by paul0 on Apr 13^th, 2003, 6:08pm

Don't even THINK about a TE untill after about the 5th round. You should have a couple good RB's, a couple good WR's and at least 1 good QB before looking at a TE. From my experience they are too unreliable.

Title: Re: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by StegRock on May 3^rd, 2003, 1:56am

Just a BUMP... for our friend DW! [smiley=bow.gif]

Title: Re: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by PA Outlaws on May 3^rd, 2003, 10:43am

I can't justify picking a guy who scores 3 or 4 fantasy points per week (based on our scoring) in the 3rd or 4th rounds! [smiley=gonecrazy.gif]

Title: Re: Draft Strategy Question?
Post by ZAGS on May 3^rd, 2003, 5:56pm

on 05/03/03 at 10:43:54, PA Outlaws wrote:

I can't justify picking a guy who scores 3 or 4 fantasy points per week (based on our scoring) in the 3rd or 4th rounds! [smiley=gonecrazy.gif]

I am glad to hear that from you PA, considering you pick before me in the 4th. If you have a draft strategy that allows you to get one of the top three, those extra 4 or 5 points will be nice every week.