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Title: Draft Order Equality Post by Philly on Jul 10th, 2003, 4:10pm As a result of examining the rosters from the recently completed 2003 CBFL draft, and also from watching the action live, I've come up with a few questions... First off, I've never drafted with any of you before this (BW's mock aside, although that was an animal of a different color altogether) and came away with a new-found respect for most of you. I've always played in autodraft leagues, where it is hard to gauge who knows what they are doing and who doesn't... I thought I'd sneak some guys under the radar, but that was not going to be the case as everyone else did their homework too... Anyway, it seems that most people drafted well, but it was the draft order that really dictated the results. Those in the middle seemed to do better than those on either end. So what I want to know is whether the serpentine draft is the fairest type of draft. I know on the surface it seems to be fair, but when you really look at it in more depth, is it fair? Has anyone ever done any statistical analysis (or at least know of any) to verify the equality of draft orders? |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by DirkDiggler on Jul 10th, 2003, 5:00pm Well...interesting observation. I know when I am in a snake draft, i prefer to be in the middle. However, there are a LOT of quality players out there this year. In years past, when Marshall Faulk clearly seperated himself, I would of sold the farm for him. But this year I would of taken any of the top 6 spots. As far as statistical analysis, I have never seen one. However, I know there are DRAFT PICK analyzers for TRADE postions. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by StegRock on Jul 10th, 2003, 5:23pm on 07/10/03 at 17:00:09, DirkDiggler wrote:
And, at least for 2002, you'd have finished in the bottom three like someone else here did. [smiley=awwgee.gif] :whistling: Ultimately, if you have the first pick (or two in a 10-team draft; or three in a 12-team draft) and that guy you picked first doesn't pan out well OR, worse yet, sustains a season-ending injury or one that just eats into his playing time, YOU'RE FRIED, PERIOD! You are NOT going to have the balance that teams picking in the 4-, 5-, 6-, 7- or 8-holes are going to have. Similar stands for guys with really late picks. Their teams are even in a worse predicament if EITHER of their first TWO picks don't pan out, "either" that is. This doesn't really need to be analyzed/quantified! Probably can't be, anyway! If you are picking alongside "competent", "savvy" FF drafters, that's just the REALITY of it! [smiley=doseofreality.gif] In any event, Philly, this is an ironic topic that you started given the post I am about to make on the other CBFL thread here "between the 20's". [smiley=hmmmm.gif] |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by Walker Boh on Jul 10th, 2003, 9:51pm I think the fairest form of draft is one that I've never participated in, an auction. Everyone has the same chance at every player and if you want a guy bad enough, you can have him. Ultimately it's your ability to value a players value that will win you the championship, not the luck of a good drafting position. A snake gives an advantage to certain slots, but it's not the fault of the format. This problem is caused by the unbalanced scoring system of the league. With RB's getting so much more value then other positions, the advantage goes to those that are able to draft quality RB's. Problem is, there are only so many "high quality" backs out there. Making EVERY position EQUALLY valuable would solve this problem. No longer would we see drafts where the first 10 picks were RB's. We would get an awesome mix of QB's, RB's, TE's, WR's and K's. :o The challenge would lie in figuring out how to balance out the scoring. It could never be 100% equal, but it could be a lot closer then it is now. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by bgsgfan on Jul 10th, 2003, 10:47pm OK - Just reading the last post by Wlker made me think of something. I haven't really thought this out - just brainstorming. New Scoring Sytem to equalize positional Values: Start with the standard scoring format, but each week the highest scoring player at each position gets a set # of points which decreases incrementally for each rank (among those players played only). Therefore the best player at each postiion each week would get say 50 points, decreasing proportionately based on the total number of starters per position, down to zero. Hmmmmmm [smiley=threed.gif] |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by bgsgfan on Jul 10th, 2003, 10:50pm BTW - I agree that an auction format solves the problem of inequality between draft slots. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by StegRock on Jul 11th, 2003, 12:07am on 07/10/03 at 21:51:45, Walker Boh wrote:
Eh-hem! [smiley=awwgee.gif] A system that largely combats this problem already exists ;) and will be available to a lucky group of 10 of you soon. ;D ... That having been said, bg, you should try to make the following a reality... on 07/10/03 at 22:47:46, bgsgfan wrote:
Very unique, innovative and brilliant idea [smiley=gotanidea.gif] , the kind I like seeing manifested and fostered on "the Gridiron"! [smiley=bow.gif] Perhaps, this could be another unique type of league system, like the CBFL's and GBRFL's, endorsed and supported by "the Gridiron". Sounds like a plan! [smiley=yes.gif] |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by Philly on Jul 11th, 2003, 8:28am on 07/10/03 at 22:47:46, bgsgfan wrote:
Interesting twist... so in this case getting a Jeremy Shockey or a David Akers would be just as important as getting the top RB. I'd be very interested to see how this works, although I'm not completely sure that this addresses my original question of draft order equality - but maybe it does... |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by Philly on Jul 11th, 2003, 8:30am on 07/10/03 at 21:51:45, Walker Boh wrote:
I have never done an auction either, although I agree that it is the fairest draft method. Has anyone here participated in a Mock Auction? I think it would be an interesting learning experience for many of us auction virgins. [smiley=newbie.gif] |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by Walker Boh on Jul 11th, 2003, 8:45am on 07/10/03 at 22:47:46, bgsgfan wrote:
This is a great idea bgsgfan! I read it a few times last night and I didn't really understand, but this morning it clicked! That is the perfect way to balance the scoring and it makes a lot of sense. Why should a RB be more important then a WR? Why should the pick of your TE or K be nearly meaningless? Make all the positions equally important and really shake up draft day! The cool thing is, it would be very easy to implement the scoring into any type of league. I would love to play in a league like this. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by DirkDiggler on Jul 11th, 2003, 9:39am on 07/11/03 at 08:30:12, Philly wrote:
Auction drafts are great!! They give everyone a fair chance at every player. I have never done an auction draft for football, but do it every year for baseball. I believe I am going to be in my first football one this year. It is amazing how many strategies there are for auction drafts. And your strategy usually gets thrown out the window based on what other bidders are doing. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by StegRock on Jul 11th, 2003, 11:05am on 07/11/03 at 08:45:56, Walker Boh wrote:
Again, like I stated above, I am ALL FOR this manifesting on "the Gridiron". As for details, bg, though I would start the scoring for QB's, RB's and WR's all at the same level, like at 50 like you suggest, I would still make the points available for TE's and PK's less, like 30 or something. I just can't see a TE or PK having the exact same impact on an FF game as a QB, RB or WR. It is kind of intrinsic, i.e. consistent with the "real" game, that QB's, RB's and WR's have "more" effect on things (offensively) than PK's and TE's. That's just "keepin' it real"! Making them ALL equal doesn't really address the problem, in any case. As stated by WB above, what we mainly want to achieve is equity among QB's, RB's and WR's, i.e. somehow make it that RB's are not so much more valuable than the other two positions. ... Anyway, just my thoughts! [smiley=shrug.gif] The more mental energy we put into this thing, the better, as I see it! [smiley=thinking.gif] |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by DOLFAN on Jul 11th, 2003, 11:45am BG i see your theory, but don't like it. True it may solve the problem at hand/discussion of draft position/equality though. IE: what you are saying is that if Harrison gets 178 yds, 15 catches and 2 tds that he could only be worth say...3-5 more pts(6-10%) more than the #2 WR that week who got 112 yds, 10 catches and 1 TD. I see your logic as it relates to the topic. I personally would not want to be in a league like that. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by DirkDiggler on Jul 11th, 2003, 12:01pm on 07/11/03 at 11:45:39, DOLFAN wrote:
Uh....aren't you in a league like that already? It is relatively close in theory to the GBRFL. For those unfamilar to the GBRFL scoring, you can win a category by 300 yards or 1 yard using TEAM total it doesn't matter. You still get the same amount of points based on who "wins" the category. THe one extra that GBRFL has is a bonus level for X yards. However, this bonus can be obtained by BOTH teams. bgsgfan idea is just taking it a different way. Instead of the GBRFL "team total" , it would use individual performance. Every player would be ranked on a weekly basis. Their ranking would give them a tiered scoring based on where they finshed. I love this idea. As I think about it more, I don;t think you can "rank" TD's scored every week, so I believe it would be easier to "convert" TD's to yardage to help establish where someone ranks weekly. An example for a traditional league now is that a TD is worth 6 points. So, in the "ranking" system that is being discussed should we equate a TD to 60 yards? Or, you can take it a step further so Moe Williams or Zack Crocekett don't become the best backs every week. You can make a receiving TD worth 60 yards, a RB TD worth 45 yards, and a QB TD worth 40 yards(45 if they run it in). These are my randon thoughts.......I am going to have to think about this more....... My idea makes yardage more important than TD's, but TD's come into play. Now to think about how to rate the positions.....and would this be head to head or rotisoiree?(sp) |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by DOLFAN on Jul 11th, 2003, 1:40pm This proposed scoring method is not even close in theory or not as close as you think DD. In the idea above EVERYBODY will get points, regardless of where they finish...If a guy has 2 catches for 12 yds lets say and his the 24th starter he will still get 5 pts/last place points. It really discounts/hurts the PLAYMAKERS/STUDS of the league IMO. The format he discribes is nothing new, except to fantasy football. It mirrors/matches the Nascar circuit point system thats all, nothing fabulous. He came up with an idea to make the positions in the draft "equal". It is an interesting idea, but already used in another major sport. The auction system is the most balanced. I like the snake drafts because it test FFLers knowledge/strategies more. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by bgsgfan on Jul 11th, 2003, 1:49pm I am beginning to be stretched thin. I am in 2 $ leagues, a keeper league (that I consider my "home" league), the Interboard Challenge (60 teams all in one league!), the geek/main board challenge, the CBFL (which really doesn't take any effort from now on), and one other league that hasn't officially been announced ;D. I generally like to be in 8 leagues - but a couple of the leagues I am in this year will take quite a bit more effort than a standard league. If someone else wanted to take this ball and run with it, it wouldn't break my heart. I could run something like this, but this year the goal would be to make it as simple as possible - a trial year. We'll fix any bugs and then look to get going in earnest next year. Maybe even combine it with an auction format to fix the initial topic of this thread. For now - keep throwing out ideas. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by DOLFAN on Jul 11th, 2003, 2:18pm I don't know how ya do it my friend. A few years back i was in 8 leagues myself. % Superbowls and won 3 of them runner up in the other 2. I made a bunch of $, but got a new job that took all my time. I dropped to 5 for 2 yrs. This yr i was only going to do 2, but joined 2 draft only/hands off leagues(BWMOCK, and CBFL. I also am in the "FUCK YOU ALL " also. SO i think that wil do it for me. I ran into rooting for everybosy to score. I wanted 70-72 games. I am enjoying cutting back. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by bgsgfan on Jul 11th, 2003, 2:57pm I forgot about the "Fuck You All" league and keeping track of that IDP draft results. I love drafting and managing my teams, projecting stats and analyzing players and matchups from a variety of different angles. I am a sucker for leagues that are out of the norm in some way. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by PrimeTime on Jul 16th, 2003, 11:00pm I am in three leagues that have all historically been serpentine drafts. Two of the leagues are converting to auction this year and will allow keepers. I'll let you guys know what I think of the auctions after we have them. By the way, if anyone has any ideas on auction strategy I would be interested in hearing them because I am in a "brainstorming" session with myself [smiley=stars.gif] over possible strategies ( a one hour commute to work will do that to you). In any event, one idea to make a serpentine draft more interesting is to allow the person to pick what number they draft at. For example, we draw team names out of a hat. The first team drawn gets to pick the spot they draft in (1 thru 10). The next team gets to pick from the remaining open slots and so on until all slots are filled. This lets teams pick the top, middle or bottom depending on their preference. Everyone liked it and we had no arguing. [smiley=ragin.gif] |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by Bob_Oswego on Jul 20th, 2003, 4:06pm I was in a league once that ran a ladder draft so round 1 looks like this (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12) then team one moves to the end and everyone slides up one slot so round 2 looks like this (2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1) and then round three (3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2) and so on. You are rewarded for your draft position and through 12 rounds everyone gets a first pick in a round, and your picks are always equally spaced except for the round in which you drop off the ladder. When all is said and done though it is the shrewdness of the drafting not the order!!!! :-X Best of Luck [smiley=crystalball.gif] |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by StegRock on Jul 20th, 2003, 4:43pm WOW, Bob! It appears that that would give a HUGE advantage to the dude with picks 3 through 7ish. Yea, by the 12th round everything is even, BUT come on! Things start getting thin after Round 8 or 9 and, in short, a first pick in Round 12 does not even come close to equaling a first pick in Round 1. [smiley=nono.gif] It seems like it would be more fair if the shifting went the other way around, i.e. Round 1 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12; Round 2 - 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11; Round 3 - 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10; and so on. But, I would think that would favor dudes with picks 10 through 4ish. After we started debating this, I actually started thinking about a system like this, but a little fairer, albeit slightly more complicated. Do the same thing, but (for a 12-team set-up) shift everything five spots forward each round, e.g., Round 1 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12; Round 2 - 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7; Round 3 - 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2; Round 4 - 10, 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; Round 5 - 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4; Round 6 - 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11; etc., etc. This system seems to divvy out the first CRUCIAL six (or so) rounds of picks MUCH more fairly while still bringing it back to absolute even in Round 12. I would actually like to do the GBRFL2 origination draft like this (but modified accordingly for a 10-team set-up, e.g. a 7-spot move up or back). (Second edit... This shifting "forward"/"backward" thing is fuckin' me up! [smiley=lost.gif] ) |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by bgsgfan on Jul 20th, 2003, 4:46pm on 07/20/03 at 16:06:46, Bob_Oswego wrote:
I'd hate to have the 12th pick in that type of format. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by bgsgfan on Jul 20th, 2003, 5:09pm on 07/20/03 at 16:43:26, StegRock wrote:
Is this how your example would work out the first 4 rounds? Round 1 2 3 4 1Pick 1 5 9 3 2Pick 2 6 10 4 3Pick 3 7 1 5 4Pick 4 8 2 6 5Pick 5 9 3 7 6Pick 6 10 4 8 7Pick 7 1 5 9 8Pick 8 2 6 10 9Pick 9 3 7 1 10Pick 10 4 8 2 That still doesn't do nearly enough to relieve the inequality between the top picks - picks 9 and 10 are kind of screwed, as is pick 4 (to a lesser extent). Could you combine the ladder with the snake? In a snake draft, you would say that 10 has one of the worst positions possible - this is even worse for the 10 spot, IMHO. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by StegRock on Jul 20th, 2003, 6:29pm Okay, well, first of all, bg, you posted so quickly on top of my post that you did not get the edit. Moving them 6 spots in any direction in a 10-team league doesn't work. It would have to be 7, and, actually, moving them backward works a little better than forward (which actually equals 3 forward on second glance). ;D So, it would go: Round 1 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 Round 2 - 8, 9, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 Round 3 - 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4 Round 4 - 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 1 Round 5 - 9, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 Round 6 - 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Round 7 - 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 1, 2 Round 8 - 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 Round 9 - 7, 8, 9, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Round 10 - 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 1, 2, 3 I don't know, dude... That looks pretty darn equitable to me! [smiley=yes.gif] Admittedly, though, it does work better for 12-team set-ups. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by Bob_Oswego on Jul 21st, 2003, 10:48pm Nightmare for the book keeper though...but very fair. No matter what the format realistically you play the hand you are dealt and draft the best you can in your situation depending on whether you follow the RB RB RB strategy and wait for QB later or you mix and match RB WR QB a lot depends on how the draft unfolds moreso than the equity of draft order |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by bgsgfan on Jul 23rd, 2003, 2:00pm I like it less than standard snake. Why is there inequality? 1. There isn't a standard point differential between rounds. The difference between 1.01 and 2.01 is more than 2.01 to 3.01, etc.. If you graph it, it looks like the bottom left hand part of a circle (point values an y axis, draft picks on x axis). 2. There are pockets within the draft where value is very similar, then steep drops. This results in that graph being closer to steps than a smooth curve. 3. There is a risk with "all your eggs in one basket". The format that Steg showed adresses the 2nd and 3rd point by doing away with the bunching of picks you have on the "corners" of a snake draft. HOWEVER, it exasperates the problem associated with point 1. I don't have much time to expound on this, but I think you can get the idea. |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by StegRock on Jul 23rd, 2003, 2:35pm on 07/23/03 at 14:00:48, bgsgfan wrote:
Mmmmm... Mmm... Not sure if I am grokking (Heinlin poser) ;) it all yet, [smiley=thinking.gif] but it does sound yummy... [smiley=lickinmychops.gif] and VERY interesting! [smiley=thumbsup.gif] And, a little Beavis & Butthead,... you said you "like it less than 'standard snake' [smiley=dick.bmp] ." [smiley=laugh.gif] [smiley=hellyeafunny.gif] [smiley=LMFAO.gif] [smiley=rollinwithlaughter.gif] |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by Bob_Oswego on Jul 23rd, 2003, 11:12pm Use the KISS principle, Keep It Simple, Stegrock! I think you are over analyzing this to death. Draft quality regardless of where you pick, hope the picks stay healthy and finally put together the right combinations each week!!! |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by FourTwoOh on Jul 27th, 2003, 10:43pm on 07/11/03 at 14:57:04, bgsgfan wrote:
Ditto. I'm in six counting CBFL, each one is vastly different from the others. From an 8 teamer to a 32 teamer, from a keeper where you keep your best to a keeper where you can't keep anybody drafed before the 4th round. Never a dull moment. [smiley=thumbsup.gif] |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by KillerKingSting on Jul 29th, 2003, 1:05pm Though I have never tried one out, I have done some internet research and from what I gathered the auction style draft method is the most fair. But then, your dealing with salaries and some guys don't want the hassle. Me? I would love to try one. Anyway since the snake style draft method has a huge element of luck to it then, why not just do lottery picks every 2 rounds using a snake style method. That way, more than likely I would hope, you won't always be stuck in the same spot throughout the draft. But, all its doing is allowing for flexible luck rather than, consistent luck. Which may not be a bad thing? Anyhow, love all the ideas out there regarding rules you all have mentioned. Very creative!!!!!! |
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Title: Re: Draft Order Equality Post by PrimeTime on Jul 31st, 2003, 11:31pm In our baseball league we use the random number function in excel and each team is assigned a random number for each round. We add up each teams draft positions and make sure the totlals are close so no one gets really screwed. We have used this method for 14 years. |
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