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the Gridiron >> between the 20's >> GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes, Lewis, Westbrook!
(Message started by: StegRock on Apr 26th, 2005, 11:13pm)

Title: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes, Lewis, Westbrook!
Post by StegRock on Apr 26th, 2005, 11:13pm
Check it out...

... http://www.fantasyfootballer.com/cgi-bin/theGridiron/YaBB.cgi?board=53;action=display;num=1114555415...

... and feel free to comment here!

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by StegRock on Apr 27th, 2005, 5:11pm
You scabs got nuttin'???  I thought, for sure, you guys would be like... Steg... [smiley=slap.gif]

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by BarnabyWilde on Apr 27th, 2005, 7:11pm
I actually like that deal for you. I think Dunn will blow up this year, and toss in TJ for insurance and a 2nd rounder (possibly the 13th overall pick) and that makes it a nice move.

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by StegRock on Apr 28th, 2005, 6:38pm
Interesting take, BW!  Obviously, I agree. ;D

The point of fantasy football is to try to get a bead on what dudes are going to do next year, not tout about what they've done in the past.  The latter is just a part of what should be taken into consideration.  Actually, Holmes has been just a bit [smiley=injury.gif] the last couple seasons and he ain't gettin' any younger.  Furthermore, Larry Johnson looked pretty darn good in his place.  I think that means, in the least, giving Holmes some extra rest/bench time so as to get him to the playoffs and to a Super Bowl (the winning of which, vis-a-vis individual statistical goals, is, as Holmes confessed when he pondered retiring last offseason, his primary objective at this point in his career) and getting Johnson some further on-the-field experience as they look to the future, at worst, a changing of the guard could take place, especially if Holmes were to go down again in '05.


on 04/27/05 at 19:11:19, BarnabyWilde wrote:
a 2nd rounder (possibly the 13th overall pick)


Make that "possibly the 11th overall pick"! [smiley=thumbsup.gif]

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by junkyardjake on Apr 29th, 2005, 4:25pm
That was a damn good trade in my opinion.   Not to diminish anything that Priest Holmes has accomplished the last few years, but the thing is, he really was never as good as his stats indicated. It's really all about the offensive line in KC, if Walter Payton ran behind that line he probably would have put up Priest Holmes stats in 12 games.

Now of course, Warrick Dunn isn't exactly a sure thing either, but getting Duckett is great insurance.  So long as you make that pick pay off, I think you got the decided advantage.

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by StegRock on Apr 29th, 2005, 10:07pm

on 04/29/05 at 16:25:44, junkyardjake wrote:
So long as you make that pick pay off, I think you got the decided advantage.


On that quote, I mean note (okay, that was just a bit corny), I see this year's draft, despite our keeping 12 players, as being 15-or-so-deep of first-round (i.e. 13th-round (now, don't get slow on me here, guys) ::) + rookies) fantasy talent.

I must admit, though, [smiley=nervous.gif] I do think Holmes is among the league's greatest tailbacks:  top-20 or 25 of all-time, I'd venture.  I actually think he had been underappreciated before ending up in KC and that one of his most impressive seasons actually was his 13-start, 1268 (combined)-yard campaign back in '98 with the Ravens. [smiley=shrug.gif]

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by junkyardjake on Apr 29th, 2005, 11:05pm

Quote:
I do think Holmes is among the league's greatest tailbacks:  top-20 or 25 of all-time, I'd venture.


I think that's quite generous, you'd make a good agent.


Quote:
one of his most impressive seasons actually was his 13-start, 1268 (combined)-yard campaign back in '98 with the Ravens.


Actually, it's interesting how unimpressed Bill Billick was with that performance when he started as the Ravens head coach in 1999.  Remember, he immediately wanted to install a platoon of Holmes and super-stiff Errict Rhett.

Another thing to remember about that season, and I had to dig into the archives for this, but Holmes actually gained 400 of his 1008 rushing yards against the Bengals in 1998.   (3 of his 7 TDs also came in those two games).

How did he fare against the rest of the AFC central in 1998 ?   36 yards per start and 2.8 yards a carry.

So, anyway, I still think alot of Holme's recent success can be attributed to the KC offensive line.  Like you mentioned Larry Johnson was hardly a dropoff when Priest was out.  To me, it really seems like Marcus Allen could come out of retirement and score 10 TDs in the Chiefs offense.

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by StegRock on May 2nd, 2005, 5:27pm

on 04/29/05 at 23:05:58, junkyardjake wrote:
Actually, it's interesting how unimpressed Bill Billick was with that performance when he started as the Ravens head coach in 1999.  Remember, he immediately wanted to install a platoon of Holmes and super-stiff Errict Rhett.


Yea, right!  As I said, I thought he was underappreciated upon entering the league and in his early years!  Thanks for making my point! ;)


Quote:
Another thing to remember about that season, and I had to dig into the archives for this, but Holmes actually gained 400 of his 1008 rushing yards against the Bengals in 1998.   (3 of his 7 TDs also came in those two games).

How did he fare against the rest of the AFC central in 1998 ?   36 yards per start and 2.8 yards a carry.


Well, that math is either a bit off or a bit tendentiously presented.  First, he only started 13 games.  He only had 7 carries after the first three weeks.  Also, in terms of NFL greatness (which, granted, was surely something I brought up), yes, the fact that he had two huge games against one sorry-ass team does matter.  But, from a fantasy standpoint, who cares?  He might not have had the steadiest of statistical seasons, but numbers are numbers.  He won games for fantasy footballers those weeks, for sure, and most of the rest of the weeks (after Week 3) he was at least okay.  His '98 stats can be viewed by way of the following link:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/games/HolmPr00.htm#1998.

After Week 3, the only games I would absolutely throw away (remember you can't have it ALL good ALL the time; sometimes you've got to be happy with that 50-or-so-yard game) fantasy-wise are Week 9's, Week 11's, Week 15's and Week 16's.  That's a pretty solid fantasy performance in light of the sorry-ass offense he was playing in that year. [smiley=shrug.gif]

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by junkyardjake on May 2nd, 2005, 11:30pm

Quote:
Well, that math is either a bit off or a bit tendentiously presented.


The math is right, you have the numbers right there  [smiley=bullseye.gif]

Sorry, I've just never been a Priest Holmes fan, and certainly don't think he measures up as one of the 'top 25 ever'.  He's basically a midget runningback that made the most of a great situation for a total of two seasons...

Now if he can somehow produce a few more seasons like 2002 and 2003, then I'm with 'ya on Holmes Happy Wagon on route to Canton.  Slush Puppies are on me.

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by junkyardjake on May 3rd, 2005, 1:08am

Quote:
First, he only started 13 games.


Looking at those numbers again, I do understand your point about this factoid:


Quote:
How did he fare against the rest of the AFC central in 1998 ?   36 yards per start and 2.8 yards a carry.


That's only counting the 4 AFC central games after week 3 (it doesn't include week1 or week3).  Although the math is correct, you have a point in that it sounds worse than it really is given that it's only based on 4 games.

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by bgsgfan on May 3rd, 2005, 2:24am
In reviewing the stats, I am reminded of how he has burned my Steelers consistently.  I doubt any RB has those types of numbers against what has been one of the most consistently great run defenses in the last five years.

Top 25 RBs all time is not a reach, however I wouldn't quite put him there yet.  2 more decent seasons (even with declining stats) will get him there though, IMO.

Good time to move him, but I see it as an even deal - you might have even been slightly on the downside. Time will tell.

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by Philly on May 3rd, 2005, 9:17am
Keep in mind that Holmes was well on his way to breaking all the records he set in 2003 last year before he got injured.  So if people think he is losing his ability to successfully run (and catch) the ball, they're sadly mistaken.  If, on the other hand, people think he is less valuable because of the string of injuries, then that's another story.

I still think Priest will have better numbers at the end of the season compared to Warrick Dunn and TJ Duckett combined, but I understand the threat of an injury has to weigh heavily in the minds of the Priest owners.

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by StegRock on May 3rd, 2005, 10:52pm

on 05/03/05 at 09:17:54, Philly wrote:
...but I understand the threat of an injury (insert the below here) has to weigh heavily in the minds of the Priest owners.


... AND how Larry Johnson looked in his place...

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by Philly on May 4th, 2005, 9:15am
I can't believe that Larry Johnson will really bite into Priest's stats that much as long as Priest is healthy.  Remember how good Derrick Blaylock looked against Atlanta in week 7 last year?  (He scored 4 TDs in that game, lest anyone forget.)

The very next week (week 8), Priest had 32 carries, 225 total yards, 3 TDs, and Derrick Blaylock got only 3 carries.  In week 9 Priest got hurt and ended his season.

I think that Vermeil will continue to give Priest the carries as long as he's healthy.  I don't think there is any movement afoot to start a platoon (despite the fact that the GM - not the coach - said that he was excited by Larry Johnson's play and that he would get touches in 2005).

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes!
Post by StegRock on May 6th, 2005, 9:37pm
I really think there is a big difference in the team's attitude toward Larry Johnson and Derrick Blaylock.  They spent a high draft pick (and some pretty good bucks, no?) on Johnson.  Blaylock is a filler.  Johnson, even though I could not stand him coming out of college, looked like the real deal last year and he will get his opportunity.  Derrick Blaylock is to Priest Holmes as Darrick Holmes (remember him?) was to Thurman Thomas.  However, Larry Johnson is to Priest Holmes as Shaun Alexander was to Ricky Watters.

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes, Lewis, Westbrook!
Post by StegRock on May 16th, 2005, 10:08pm
[smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]


Holy bong hits, Batman, [smiley=batman.gif] Steg must have gotten his hands on some serious KB... [smiley=bonghit.gif]After trading away Holmes, he's done gone moved Jamal Lewis and Brian Westbrook...  All three of his regular starters... gone!  What could he be thinking? [smiley=thinking.gif] ... [smiley=hmmmm.gif] ... [smiley=sinister.gif]

Here's the thread to check it all out:

http://www.fantasyfootballer.com/cgi-bin/theGridiron/YaBB.cgi?board=53;action=display;num=1114555415.

[smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]   [smiley=jawdroppin.gif]

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes, Lewis, Westbrook!
Post by StegRock on May 21st, 2005, 6:22pm
No backlash on my psychotic [smiley=gonecrazy.gif] break!!!  You guys are generous. [smiley=awwgee.gif]

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes, Lewis, Westbrook!
Post by BarnabyWilde on May 21st, 2005, 7:50pm
I for one was surprised on you moving Jamal. I think with the addition of Mason and Clayton, and a healthy Heap, the passing game will open up more running room for JL. I think he'll have a nice season.

Title: Re: GBRFL - Steg moves Holmes, Lewis, Westbrook!
Post by StegRock on May 22nd, 2005, 6:11pm
I too actually think that Jamal will have a superb '05.  That just goes to show you how highly I regard what I got in return, mainly the draft picks as I see Martin coming back down to his usual 1,150 to 1,300 (combined), 8-to-11 touchdown (combined) season next year, which, mind you, is solid, but not "blue chip" like he was last year.



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