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(Message started by: Philly on Jun 28th, 2005, 1:21pm)
Title: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by Philly on Jun 28th, 2005, 1:21pm
NFL.com has posted their early Top 10...

1. Peyton Manning
2. Daunte Culpepper
3. Donovan McNabb
4. Trent Green
5. Kerry Collins
6. Michael Vick
7. Marc Bulger
8. Matt Hasselbeck
9. Aaron Brooks
10. Carson Palmer

They didn't post their scoring guidelines online, but let's assume that it is standard 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per 10 yards rushing, 4 points per passing TD, 6 points per rushing TD, -2 per interception.

Anyone else care to post their top 10 list?
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by DUKE0313 on Jun 28th, 2005, 7:15pm
1. P. Manning
2. C-Pep
3. McNabb
4. Trent Green
5. Bulger
6. Kerry Collins
7. Tom Brady
8. Aaron Brooks
9. Carson Palmer
10. Drew Brees

I omitted Vick for obvious reasons (one week he scores +50, the next week he's -2!), and Hasselbeck really let me down last year...so, let's see if Brees can carry over his momentum!
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by junkyardjake on Jun 28th, 2005, 10:33pm

Quote:
1. P. Manning
2. C-Pep
3. McNabb
4. Trent Green
5. Bulger
6. Kerry Collins
7. Tom Brady
8. Aaron Brooks
9. Carson Palmer
10. Drew Brees


[smiley=thumbsup.gif]

Nice ranking Duke, I agree, kick Vick and Hasselbeck to the curb.
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by KillerKingSting on Jun 29th, 2005, 1:39pm

on 06/28/05 at 19:15:30, DUKE0313 wrote:
1. P. Manning
2. C-Pep
3. McNabb
4. Trent Green
5. Bulger
6. Kerry Collins
7. Tom Brady
8. Aaron Brooks
9. Carson Palmer
10. Drew Brees

I omitted Vick for obvious reasons (one week he scores +50, the next week he's -2!), and Hasselbeck really let me down last year...so, let's see if Brees can carry over his momentum!


Kick BREES to the curb.

Heres why :

Last year 2004

Brees -vs- NFL's 8 Worst secondaries = averaged : 273 yds, 3 TDs & 0.2 INTs.

Brees -vs- rest of the league = averaged : 169 yds, 1 TD & 0.7 INTs.

AND San Diego has the 2nd MOST TOUGHEST schedule in 2005.

Phillip Rivers stock just jumped up if you ask me ;)
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by junkyardjake on Jun 29th, 2005, 2:15pm

Quote:
Kick BREES to the curb.


Can't argue with that either.   In fact, QB's that aren't named Manning, Culpepper or maybe McNabb shouldn't be drafted before the fifth round anyway.

Personally, if it was like the 7th round of a draft, and I had a choice between Vick and Brees, I would take Vick without hesitation.   Only because of Vick's unique upside (which may still happen one of these years).

The bottom line on QB's is that there are three groups:

1) Manning, Culpepper and  McNabb

2) About 15 starting QBs with decent and undistinquishable performance

and

3) QBs to stay away from either because they are too young, are in bad offensive system or just plain suck.

In the #2 group this year you can probably get a terrific bargain by waiting late in your draft to pick up Leftwich, Carr and even Harrington.

In the #3 group, it's probably best to stay away from Eli Manning, Alex Smith and Kyle Boller until he proves otherwise.  (Boller may actually do just that this year).
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by DUKE0313 on Jun 29th, 2005, 5:43pm
Let me just defend my "Brees Position" by saying that he had a pretty good reputation coming out of college and he finally started to live up to it last year!
Vick was selected #1 in the 2001 NFL draft (Brees was #15), he was supposed to be the coming of the Great New SUPER QB. But, so far, he's been nothing but erratic! Vick threw for 16 TD's with 13 INT's last year, while Brees had 29 and 8 respectively! (just as an aside, Vick rushed for 3 TD's and Brees rushed for 2)
Yes, Vick rushed for about a thousand yards last season but we all know how that fades with time...C-Pep doesn't run nearly as often as he used to. He doesn't have to...he can throw the ball, and let's face it---Michael Vick just plain CAN'T THROW THE FOOTBALL!!! And who wants a QB who can't throw the ball???
So, if it were up to me, I'd take Brees and hope he would continue his improvement and let you guys live or die on the "legs" of Vick and his INT's!!!
Just my humble opinion, and I certainly don't mean to start another "Vick Debate" like the one we all endured a few months back. Everyone has their own opinion, and I've just stated mine.
How long 'til training camp???
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by KillerKingSting on Jun 29th, 2005, 5:46pm

on 06/29/05 at 17:43:43, DUKE0313 wrote:
Let me just defend my "Brees Position" by saying that he had a pretty good reputation coming out of college and he finally started to live up to it last year!
Vick was selected #1 in the 2001 NFL draft (Brees was #15), he was supposed to be the coming of the Great New SUPER QB. But, so far, he's been nothing but erratic! Vick threw for 16 TD's with 13 INT's last year, while Brees had 29 and 8 respectively! (just as an aside, Vick rushed for 3 TD's and Brees rushed for 2)
Yes, Vick rushed for over a thousand yards last season but we all know how that fades with time...C-Pep doesn't run nearly as often as he used to. He doesn't have to...he can throw the ball, and let's face it---Michael Vick just plain CAN'T THROW THE FOOTBALL!!! And who wants a QB who can't throw the ball???
So, if it were up to me, I'd take Brees and hope he would continue his improvement and let you guys live or die on the "legs" of Vick and his INT's!!!
Just my humble opinion, and I certainly don't mean to start another "Vick Debate" like the one we all endured a few months back. Everyone has their own opinion, and I've just stated mine.
How long 'til training camp???



Brees -vs- NFL's 8 Worst secondaries = averaged : 273 yds, 3 TDs & 0.2 INTs.

Brees -vs- rest of the league = averaged : 169 yds, 1 TD & 0.7 INTs.

NUFF SAID [smiley=hellyeafunny.gif]
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by DUKE0313 on Jun 29th, 2005, 5:52pm
Vick vs. any secondary at all:
158 yds, 1 TD, .8125 INT's!!!

Brees QB rtg= 104.8...3rd in the NFL among QB's with 100 or more attempts.
Vick QB rtg= 78.1...22nd
By the way, Vick and his "super legs" were sacked 46 times last season...Brees, 18.
Good Gravy...he can't even throw the football out of bounds!!!
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by KillerKingSting on Jun 29th, 2005, 6:05pm

on 06/29/05 at 17:46:41, KillerKingSting wrote:
Brees -vs- NFL's 8 Worst secondaries = averaged : 273 yds, 3 TDs & 0.2 INTs.

Brees -vs- rest of the league = averaged : 169 yds, 1 TD & 0.7 INTs.

NUFF SAID [smiley=hellyeafunny.gif]


Vick 992 yards rushing last year.

Brees 85.

Oh MY!
[smiley=awwgee.gif]
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by DUKE0313 on Jun 29th, 2005, 6:19pm

on 06/29/05 at 17:52:19, DUKE0313 wrote:
Vick vs. any secondary at all:
158 yds, 1 TD, .8125 INT's!!!

By the way, Vick and his "super legs" were sacked 46 times last season...Brees, 18.
Good Gravy...he can't even throw the football out of bounds!!!

And how many QB's can you name that have been elected to the HALL Of FAME for predominantly running the ball???
Several have appeared over the years, but only C-Pep is headed for the HOF. And why, because he learned to throw the ball!!!
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by KillerKingSting on Jun 29th, 2005, 6:23pm

on 06/29/05 at 13:39:17, KillerKingSting wrote:
Kick BREES to the curb.

Heres why :

Last year 2004

Brees -vs- NFL's 8 Worst secondaries = averaged : 273 yds, 3 TDs & 0.2 INTs.

Brees -vs- rest of the league = averaged : 169 yds, 1 TD & 0.7 INTs.

AND San Diego has the 2nd MOST TOUGHEST schedule in 2005.

Phillip Rivers stock just jumped up if you ask me ;)


Most all the previous running type QBs early in their career - such as - McNair, S.Young, Culpepper, and McNabb - all RAN ALOT.

Now after YEARS - they have settled and are throwing the football.

Vick is right on that same track.

Cept,

Hes a better athlete than all those forementioned QBs

and he'll still have his legs when his arm catches up,

Watch out.
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by DUKE0313 on Jun 29th, 2005, 6:32pm
But Vick WON'T still have his legs IF his arm ever catches up! At the rate he's going, he'll be long since retired before he ever learns to throw. And this is his fifth year in the league already, those legs will be slowing down considerably in 2 or 3 more years and then he'll be proved to be what he really is...another "flash in the pan" gone the way of Randall Cunningham. To whom, by the way, he is more similar than the QB's you've named above.
But, again, this wasn't meant to be a "Vick Debate" Forum. You have your opinion and I have mine (and never the twain shall meet?). Let's leave this for it's intended purpose: A top 10 QB list. Come to think of it, I haven't seen one from you. You've taken on the relatively easy task of blasting mine...where's yours???
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by The_Dog on Jun 29th, 2005, 10:12pm
The Dog's List

1: Manning
2: Collins
3: Bulger
4: Mcnabb
5: Brady
6: Cullpepper
7: Carr
8: Palmer
9: Green
10: Favre


Dark Horse: Sexy Rexy Grossman......upgraded o-line, upgraded running back, upgraded wide recievers........gotta love him
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by KillerKingSting on Jun 29th, 2005, 10:36pm

on 06/29/05 at 13:39:17, KillerKingSting wrote:
Kick BREES to the curb.

Heres why :

Last year 2004

Brees -vs- NFL's 8 Worst secondaries = averaged : 273 yds, 3 TDs & 0.2 INTs.

Brees -vs- rest of the league = averaged : 169 yds, 1 TD & 0.7 INTs.

AND San Diego has the 2nd MOST TOUGHEST schedule in 2005.

Phillip Rivers stock just jumped up if you ask me ;)


After realizing that BREES is nothing more than smoke and mirrors,

top 10,

1.Manning
2. C-Pep
3. McNabb
4. Trent Green.
5. K-Collins.
6. Aaron Brooks
7.Bulger
8. McNair
9. Vick
10. C-Palmer

oh and,

last half of season the 11th highest rated QB will be Phillip Rivers.

Brees is that awful
[smiley=letsmakeup.gif]
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by DirkDiggler on Jun 30th, 2005, 1:46pm
The thing I find interesting is that Aaron Brooks is in the top 10.  As a Brooks owner, he is one of the most frustrating QBs to own.  He is so inconsistant.  He does not put up any numbers until the second half of any game.  And no, it is not because they fall behind.  It is just the way he works.  And then, just when you think he is gonna do something, he fumbles or throws an interception.

And finally, a LOT of people think Deuce McAllister is going to have a monster year.  Will this help Brooks or hurt Brooks?  Everything I have read is that they are going to run, run, and run some more......
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by Philly on Jun 30th, 2005, 3:15pm

on 06/30/05 at 13:46:27, DirkDiggler wrote:
The thing I find interesting is that Aaron Brooks is in the top 10.  As a Brooks owner, he is one of the most frustrating QBs to own.  He is so inconsistant.  He does not put up any numbers until the second half of any game.  And no, it is not because they fall behind.  It is just the way he works.  And then, just when you think he is gonna do something, he fumbles or throws an interception.

And finally, a LOT of people think Deuce McAllister is going to have a monster year.  Will this help Brooks or hurt Brooks?  Everything I have read is that they are going to run, run, and run some more......


I owned Brooks in my money league last year and he did reasonably well, but you're right... he is frustrating to own. Still, you could do a lot worse... like Vick for example.

I think Brooks should be better this year.  He has to be.  He still has Horn at WR and the increased attention to the running game should give Brooks more openings when he does pass.  I'd look for slightly better numbers for Brooks in 2005 compared to 2004.
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by KillerKingSting on Jun 30th, 2005, 3:45pm

on 06/30/05 at 13:46:27, DirkDiggler wrote:
The thing I find interesting is that Aaron Brooks is in the top 10.  As a Brooks owner, he is one of the most frustrating QBs to own.  He is so inconsistant.  He does not put up any numbers until the second half of any game.  And no, it is not because they fall behind.  It is just the way he works.  And then, just when you think he is gonna do something, he fumbles or throws an interception.

And finally, a LOT of people think Deuce McAllister is going to have a monster year.  Will this help Brooks or hurt Brooks?  Everything I have read is that they are going to run, run, and run some more......


If Brooks throws another backwards pass to his offensive linemen this season.....................

Maybe we'll get to see McPherson for a play or 2 :D

By the way, my QB ratings were quick and really just a for fun thing, something I did on the spot while reading a post,

but, I just don't think Brees is the man.
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by Philly on Jul 5th, 2005, 3:51pm
1. Peyton Manning
2. Daunte Culpepper
3. Donovan McNabb
4. Jake Delhomme
5. Tom Brady
6. Kerry Collins
7. Drew Brees
8. Marc Bulger
9. Jake Plummer
10. Carson Palmer

Others to watch: Brett Favre, Brian Griese, Trent Green, Joey Harrington
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by KillerKingSting on Jul 5th, 2005, 11:54pm
no way Brees is the #7 QB this year - not a chance ;D
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by Philly on Jul 6th, 2005, 8:22am

on 07/05/05 at 23:54:51, KillerKingSting wrote:
no way Brees is the #7 QB this year - not a chance ;D


If I was just ranking QBs off the top of my head, I wouldn't have put him in the top 10 either.  But I don't just rank them.  I project full stats for everyone at every position based on their previous year's production and any changes in the off-season that will affect this year's production.  When all was said and done, Brees landed 7th.

Brees (05-06): 305-495 3600 yds, 28 TDs, 14 INTs.

Why the increase over 2004?  I think they'll throw some more to LT2.  He only caught 53 passes in 2004, well below his 2003 numbers.  Brees also has a better WR corps in place for 2005.  McCardell will get a full season with him.  Gates will take a small step back, but still be incredible.  Reche Caldwell (remember his fast start in 2004?) is healthy again.  Eric Parker has more experience.  Vincent Jackson gives Brees another endzone target.  Looks like a slight increase over 2004 in my mind.
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by KillerKingSting on Jul 6th, 2005, 8:27am

on 07/06/05 at 08:22:51, Philly wrote:
If I was just ranking QBs off the top of my head, I wouldn't have put him in the top 10 either.  But I don't just rank them.  I project full stats for everyone at every position based on their previous year's production and any changes in the off-season that will affect this year's production.  When all was said and done, Brees landed 7th.

Brees (05-06): 305-495 3600 yds, 28 TDs, 14 INTs.

Why the increase over 2004?  I think they'll throw some more to LT2.  He only caught 53 passes in 2004, well below his 2003 numbers.  Brees also has a better WR corps in place for 2005.  McCardell will get a full season with him.  Gates will take a small step back, but still be incredible.  Reche Caldwell (remember his fast start in 2004?) is healthy again.  Eric Parker has more experience.  Vincent Jackson gives Brees another endzone target.  Looks like a slight increase over 2004 in my mind.


so you took my post into consideration?

~>
Quote:
Kick BREES to the curb.

Heres why :

Last year 2004

Brees -vs- NFL's 8 Worst secondaries = averaged : 273 yds, 3 TDs & 0.2 INTs.

Brees -vs- rest of the league = averaged : 169 yds, 1 TD & 0.7 INTs.

AND San Diego has the 2nd MOST TOUGHEST schedule in 2005.

Phillip Rivers stock just jumped up if you ask me
 

and if so, did this affect your rankings?

Just curious! I respect your opinion and am eager to see if Brees can pull a rabbit outta his hat once again!

Regardless of how I rank QBs - Brees will NOT make the top 10 - not based on the top of my head - its based on FACTUAL NUMBERS you have presented before you.
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by Philly on Jul 6th, 2005, 8:40am
I generally do NOT consider strength of schedule in my projections.  First off, it's very tough to figure out who will be good and who won't.  This time last year, I'm sure the Chargers looked like a 3-13 team with a horrendous defense.  Little did we know that their defense gelled and they made the playoffs.  So I try not to let opponents affect my rankings too much.  For Brees to throw for 3600 yards, he'll have to average about 225 a game.  That's about 5 yards a game more than he averaged in 2004, which I think is reasonable.

So, disregarding strength of schedule certainly takes some of the luster off my projections, but I only have time to consider so many things.  For instance, I could break the players down by number of games they are playing in domes.  Sure, a QB from Buffalo will likely face worse playing conditions than a QB from San Diego, but I'm not a meteorologist who can predict the weather on a Sunday in early December.

I respect your belief that Brees is not top 10.  I will continue to tweak my rankings based on things I see leading up to the season, so my top 10 now will likely change more than a few times by early September.

(I can tell you this... even though I have Brees projected as the 7th best fantasy QB this season, there's no way I'd draft him as the 7th QB overall.  I put my rankings together, put them into tiers, and then allow myself some personal bias when making a draft pick.)
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by KillerKingSting on Jul 6th, 2005, 8:49am
Well, your analysis as posted was full of interesting predictions.

McCardell - easy to overlook I'm sure because of his situation last year - coming in late - new to the SD offense, etc etc, but, he is also one year older - not that THAT stopped Jimmy Smith , Hines Ward, Joe Horn - to name a few.

Also, the AFC west isn't exactly known for their corner coverage either.

Cadwell to me - is about as easy to predict as the toughness of schedules your referring to.

V-Jackson is way too RAW. I would BEE pleasantly surprised if he were to make any substantial type of contribution that would lead to Brees making the top 10.

I BEE;ieve LT2's touches - whteher it BEE catches or carries - are probably going DOWN some this year - as to protect him from any further nagging injuries that seemed to have bothered hi last season - Sproles might take some third down touches away from LT2 and Chatman some carries.

I agree that Gates will decrease a bit from last year.

I think we'll see Rivers some time this year - that might be a stretch to concieve but, I'll put myself out there as saying that,

Nice analysis though, I appreciate your indepth thought process and its always a pleasure to mix and match wit!
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by junkyardjake on Jul 6th, 2005, 9:17am
Drew Brees is no doubt overrated this year, but he does have a great division to play in.   On the downside, his receivers are very average except for Gates, and I wouldn't expect much out of McCardell, outside of third down catches of 7 yards.

Philly, the guy that I think is rated too high in your rankings is Jake Delhomme.  He is a solid QB, but the reason he put up crazy numbers last year was because all their runningbacks were hurt in the 2nd half of the season.

Now they have Davis, Foster and Shelton, and a much improved defense.  I seriously doubt Delhomme will repeat last year's impressive numbers.

I know why you've excluded Vick, but I also find it interesting that you haven't considered Leftwich, Carr and Brooks.  These might be the type of guys that pull off Drew Brees numbers this year.
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by KillerKingSting on Jul 6th, 2005, 9:24am
GREAT point on Leftwich Jake, and to a lesser degree - Brooks, - I think Jammal Brown - their rookie ROT - will provide a HUGE jump in running power and protection for the Saint's offense.

Back in the Turley days.
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by sameoldsameold on Jul 6th, 2005, 2:19pm
1.  Peyton Manning
2.  C-pep
3.  Trent Green
4.  Donavon Mcnabb
5.  Marc Bulger
6.  Carson Palmer
7.  Jake Delhomme
8.  Steve Mcnair
9.  Tom Brady
10. Bret Farve


these are my top 10 fantasy QBs....i wanna move mcnabb above green but with TO on the ropes it is hard for me to do that....also hard for me to move bret any higher because he lost both of this guards this pass offseason...i do leave him on there though because his defense stinks so bad that he will be throwing to catch up...also i added in the forgotten one....steve mcnair cause i believe he will rebound this year....having a bad defense also helped him...
Title: Re: Top 10 Fantasy QBs for 2005
Post by Callie on Jul 10th, 2005, 8:41pm

on 07/06/05 at 08:40:31, Philly wrote:
I generally do NOT consider strength of schedule in my projections.  First off, it's very tough to figure out who will be good and who won't.  


Tell that to Marc Bulger, playing in the NFC West and looking at a pass first team with WRs and RBs with the best SOS by position in the league (sure, based on off season projections - but it is the NFC West).  Bulger is definately in the Catbird Seat.

Bulger threw for 3,964 yards and scored 24 total touchdowns last season behind an OL that we won't mention.  AND with a shoulder injury in October.  If the OL actually is improving and Bulger's INTs are actually staying down....SOS could definately be something to consider.  

Oh, almost forgot to give my list:

1.  Payton Manning
2.  Donovan McNabb
3.  Daunte Culpepper
4.  Marc Bulger
5.  Carson Palmer
6.  Kerry Collins
7.  Trent Green
8.  Tom Brady
9.  Brett Favre
10.  Drew Brees

BTW - McNabb has a great schedule for a QB, too.  And I believe that T.O. will be there with bells on after Rosenhaus is done with his thing.


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