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        the Gridiron >> between the 20's >>  Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
        
(Message started by: junkyardjake on Aug 25^th, 2005, 9:34pm)

Title: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by junkyardjake on Aug 25^th, 2005, 9:34pm

And good grief, I swear those guys are slacking off this year. I'm not sure how I'll screw up with this team, but it will probably happen. (I always seem to lose by the tiebreaker in the 2nd week of the playoffs).

I traded the overall 1st pick and took McAllister at #2, I also received the #23 for the #25, the #47 for the #49, and #71 for #96.

1. RB Deuce McAllister #2
2. WR Torry Holt #23
3. RB Stephen Jackson #24
4. WR Roy Williams #48
5. RB Tatum Bell #47
6. DEF Baltimore Ravens #71
7. WR Chris Chambers #72
8. RB Kevan Barlow #73
9. RB Mike Anderson #97
10. QB Jake Plummer #120
11. QB Byron Leftwich #121
12. TE L.J. Smith #144
13. TE Doug Jolley #145
14. WR Michael Jenkins #168
15. PK Mike Nugent #169

I know Tomlinson is all that and a side of nachos, but I think I got the better of the trade, because it allowed me to pick up Holt, Roy Williams and the Baltimore defense. Plus I don't like San Diegos schedule this year, and Tomlinson's yards per carry really dropped noticeably last year.

One spot where I think I screwed up was #97 where I felt compelled to take Mike Anderson. I really don't like him, but who would be completely shocked if he starts all year? I was going to use #97 on Chad Pennington, but he was taken shortly after, and then had to get Jake Plummer at #120 instead. Plummer was obviously a great deal at #120, but despite his great numbers last year, I still think he plays like a knucklehead and is not completely immune from getting benched unless he reels it in.

Anyway, any thoughts are welcome.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by KillerKingSting on Aug 25^th, 2005, 10:47pm

Your safe with Plummer because, although as you eluded to, he isn't the most reliable QB out there and especially if your league penalizes BIG for mistakes,..............the depth behind him is that much more awful IMO.

You certainly went with alot of youth! Roy Williams, Stephen Jackson, Tatum Bell (great pick there IMO) so, lets hope that all pans out. It has been my experience as of late that, offensive veterans carry fantasy teams much better than their younger counter parts.

However, one of those young backs, S-Jax or Bell, should come through pretty big this year.

I don't know your scoring system so, its a bit difficult to really establish a fair opinion but, I certainly would have yaken Carolina's "D" before Baltimores. But thats just preference and especially if you get alot points for sacks and turnovers.

I think the Raven's D is in for somewhat of a learning curve with their new system - the 46-DEF - and quite frankly, I am not even sure that it can be that successful in today's NFL-game.

That said, if I were going to give the benfit of the doubt then, I most certainly would extend that here. Baltimore has the personel to make up for schemes that might take some time getting used to.

I like the M.Anderson tail but, I might have gambled later on and taken Ron Dayne instead. I think he has a chance at becoming the comeback player of the year.

Leftwich was great value there. And so was LJ Smith.

You have a solid team Jake!

Can you post some of the other teams that you think might be in contention with you?

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by sexydexy on Aug 26^th, 2005, 3:34am

Here's what I don't like about this team:

- Denver RBs. Who in the hell wants to mess with that situation?

- Kevan Barlow. Don't have much faith in the 49er offense except maybe the passing game since they'll be coming from behind more often than not.

You took some risks at WR and TE but Roy Williams is the best WR Detroit has and Doug Jolley could be a solid contributor in Heimerdinger's offense. So, I'll give you a break on those as I see the potential in them.

What I liked about this team:

- Lots of upside. Most of these players save the ones mentioned early seem to have a lot of scoring potential. Michael Jenkins scored 2 TDs in the preseason game against Jacksonville today, including one with the first string. Nice pick up for your 14th pick.

- Baltimore D. They've got a real good chance to be dominant again. It should pick up some slack where you might lose some points at the TE or WR2 positions each week.

- Depth. Your RB, WR, and QB depth is stellar. At least 2 solid players at each position will certainly help your cause driving to the championship.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by Philly on Aug 26^th, 2005, 8:39am

1. RB Deuce McAllister #2 - Nice pick, but you could've traded down even further to get him.
2. WR Torry Holt #23 - Could be the best WR this year as long as S-Jax doesn't steal all the TDs.
3. RB Stephen Jackson #24 - Oh, I see. A bit risky with #2 RB and #1 WR from same team...
4. WR Roy Williams #48 - Amazing receiver, but he has others vying to take ball away from him.
5. RB Tatum Bell #47 - Tremendous value pick.
6. DEF Baltimore Ravens #71 - Don't know scoring, but Ravens D could be scary with the 46 this year.
7. WR Chris Chambers #72 - Someone has to catch the ball in Miami. Nice pick.
8. RB Kevan Barlow #73 - Why?
9. RB Mike Anderson #97 - A bit early, IMO, but a must-have behind Tatum.
10. QB Jake Plummer #120 - Big yards and TDs! Great value.
11. QB Byron Leftwich #121 - New, vertical offense helps!
12. TE L.J. Smith #144 - Will get plenty of red-zone chances.
13. TE Doug Jolley #145 - He could be a #1 FF TE.
14. WR Michael Jenkins #168 - I love this pick!
15. PK Mike Nugent #169 - Could be the next great one.

So, there are my comments. I think you're stacked at every position. I don't like the Barlow pick, but all the others are good. How does Tatum Bell fall to the fifth round?

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by junkyardjake on Aug 26^th, 2005, 12:35pm

Thanks KillerKing and Sexy for your interesting observations. Philly, great analysis as usual.

The spilt of sentiment concerning the Denver runningbacks is interesting. I agree with Philly and KillerSting that Tatum Bell was a great value in the 5th round, but Sexy also has a good point about staying away from the entire situation. The reason I took Bell in that spot was that all the top-notch QBs were gone, and I was considering Michael Vick, but wasn't going to spend a 5th rounder on him.

For anybody that hasn't drafted for a particular league yet, there is perhaps another reason to steer clear of the Denver backfield. Check out the fantasy playoff week schedule for Denver:

Week 14 12/11 Baltimore, 4:15
Week 15 12/17 @Buffalo, 8:30
Week 16 12/24 Oakland, 4:15

Obviously Oakland is not a problem, but Baltimore anywhere and Buffalo at home in December are not ideal matchups.

Nevertheless, I would rather preemptively hold Bell and Anderson throughout the season then get my butt kicked by them.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by junkyardjake on Aug 26^th, 2005, 12:46pm

Oh one other thing re: Barlow. I know he's in a dismal situation, but I still think he is a talented back with great upside. Plus, anytime you can get a starting RB in the eight round that isn't named Thomas Jones, you should probably take him. I also think Frank Gore is pushing him to play better, he's better conditioned this year and the Niners schedule is favorable.

That said, can he still suck this year ? Absolutely. (btw, I still like Justin McCariens and Charles Rogers too, and their chance of sucking this year is probably alot less than Barlow). :)

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by sexydexy on Aug 26^th, 2005, 7:32pm

I just drafted in a Yahoo League last night for a change in flavor sort of league (all I have been playing is 16 team auction and rookie draft teams so I wanted to play a regular redraft) and I ended up drafting Tatum Bell late.

Guess the rule on Denver RBs is to take a flyer on them but not depend on them for any substantial starting points week to week.

So, in response to my question, who in the hell wants to deal with that situation...well, anyone with late draft picks to burn and a risk taker.

:-P

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by KillerKingSting on Aug 26^th, 2005, 10:30pm

Who wouldn't want to deal with denver's RBs? All that offensive line does every year - year in - year out - is produce 1000+ yard RBs out of thin air.

A draft pick here and there is worth the risk. Tatum Bell is definitely worth the risk. Anderson as well - and if you want a super sleeper - take Dayne late.

I wouldn't touch Clarett right now - as I passed on him in the Insane Gang's Rookie draft as well.

Certainly though, stranger things have happened.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by DUKE0313 on Aug 26^th, 2005, 10:36pm

Clarett looks like he's on the way out in Denver!
See the post on Denver's page.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by sexydexy on Aug 27^th, 2005, 2:50am

Yeah, Denver puts out 1000 yard rushers like clockwork.

But, KKS, go ahead and tell me which RB is going to start, barring injuries, weeks 1-17 for the Denver Broncos right now.

Ok, now how about the Seattle Seahawks or San Diego Chargers?

That's the point about the Denver RB situation. It's going to be Mike Anderson or Tatum Bell or even Quentin Griffin all year long and you won't be able to tell who's going to start even on gameday!

I disagree with the Ron Dayne sleeper assessment. He's been a bum almost his entire NFL career and I don't see that changing in Denver. He's probably on my comatose list.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by KillerKingSting on Aug 27^th, 2005, 3:47am

Point well taken Dex. But as the theme of the Denver RB situation as it relates to Jake's team and my post - taking one of those backs mid-late to late in a draft is worth the risk. I would even risk taking Bell higher than that.
Hes got talent.
Its all just a matter of taste and owner mangement. I could be wrong and then again, right.

Also I would understand anyone who wouldn't want to touch Dayne. I am even skeptic. Hence my wording "SUPER-SLEEPER".

Certainly, in all the 16 team leagues you play in - someone has taken the chance on this guy? If not though, I can't say I blame them.

I picked him up but, only as a last ditch resort - more so to say - I have entered the Bronco RB sweepstakes - kind of in a fun way. Not to be left out so to speak I guess.

I am a bit of a gambler.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by StegRock on Aug 27^th, 2005, 5:15am

on 08/27/05 at 02:50:59, sexydexy wrote:

But, KKS, go ahead and tell me which RB is going to start, barring injuries, weeks 1-17 for the Denver Broncos right now.

...

That's the point about the Denver RB situation. It's going to be Mike Anderson or Tatum Bell or even Quentin Griffin all year long and you won't be able to tell who's going to start even on gameday!

I disagree with the Ron Dayne sleeper assessment. He's been a bum almost his entire NFL career and I don't see that changing in Denver. He's probably on my comatose list.

Dude, the only reason Griffin might make the team is because Clarett has been such a disappointment so much so that he probably has one foot out the door already. While I don't think it is the end all argument (as I've indicated elsewhere here on "the Gridiron"), there is some truth to the fact that Denver's "patient, one-cut" rushing philosophy is much more suited to Dayne's style of running than the "plow-ahead, big-back" style he was being forced to play in New York, which just made him look like "[smiley=spchef.gif][smiley=footballsmiley.gif]". Dayne has a WAY better chance to be the go-to tailback in Denver than does Griffin. But, again, the depth chart as it appears now is: 1) Bell (despite Anderson's preseason starting), 2) Anderson, 3) Dayne, 4) Griffin (but, if all goes as originally planned, a BIG IF mind you, they'd ultimately like to keep Clarett in favor of him). ... The key in fantasy football is to be flexible of mind. Adjusting your thoughts and accepting "real" changes in "circumstance" at a moderate pace is the key to fantasy football... and life for that matter (when it's usually referred to as "going with the flow"). [smiley=zenmaster.gif]

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by sexydexy on Aug 27^th, 2005, 5:56am

With all due respect, Steg, my point about trying to figure out which Denver RB to start on a week by week basis still stands...at least for the past few years. Once the Terrell Davis era ended, it's been a crapshoot as to whom is going to get the rock.

I would take a Denver RB late on the premise that their *might* be a starting job for one back (Tatum Bell?) but I certainly would not want to depend on them as a RB1 or RB2.

And Ron Dayne being a good NFL RB anywhere? Come on, are you serious? I'll believe it when I see it. All I can think of when it comes to Ron Dayne is..."Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile."

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by StegRock on Aug 27^th, 2005, 6:08am

on 08/27/05 at 05:56:09, sexydexy wrote:

I didn't contest that point. It's a valid argument with acceptable premises. I don't know if I see 100% eye-to-eye with it, but it's not a hill I am willing to die on, in any event. It's ultimately a good, fantasy-relevant point.

Quote:

And Ron Dayne being a good NFL RB anywhere? Come on, are you serious? I'll believe it when I see it. All I can think of when it comes to Ron Dayne is..."Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile."

Well, you make your stand... I'll take my stance. In the end, we'll see who's still standing... if either of us.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by KillerKingSting on Aug 27^th, 2005, 6:24am

on 08/27/05 at 05:56:09, sexydexy wrote:

Thats what adds the element of "fun" to fantasy football. If we KNEW everything there was to know (LT2 will start in SD, Alexander in SEA) then, wheres the element of anticipation in that?

Sure we NEED that type of consistency that LT2 and Shawn brings into FF but also, we need the opposite as well. A splash of bewilderment, suspense, incredulity.............a thunder bolt of wonder. Theres ALOT of fun in that.

Quote:

I would take a Denver RB late on the premise that their *might* be a starting job for one back (Tatum Bell?) but I certainly would not want to depend on them as a RB1 or RB2.

Ok, I don't mean to be picking on you Dex but, that point wasn't the theme of Jake's draft. He took Bell as his 3rd back. And quite frankly, I know a couple of membranes in the Insane Gang league, myself included, that would have certainly used Droughns as a #2 back last year.

Though the aforementioned wasn't drafted in most leagues and therefore snatched off of waivers/free agency in most leagues, he was still a #1-#2 back for alot of fantasy teams.

Quote:

Fair enough. I think otherwise. I HOPE otherwise. And if not then, how can one make an argument against on using a very LATE round draft pick to pick up Dayne?

An argument based on a late round pick?

Come on!!!! Thats like pissing in the wind.

Argue about a 1st or 2nd or 3rd - etc etc.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by StegRock on Aug 27^th, 2005, 6:32am

on 08/27/05 at 06:24:07, KillerKingSting wrote:

[smiley=bullseye.gif]

That was my point, as well... "Don't cut off your nose to spite your face" with your fantasy prejudices.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by sexydexy on Aug 27^th, 2005, 6:03pm

I don't have any prejudice or bias against Ron Dayne in any way.

But when was the last time he performed like an NFL RB to make you think he would be good in Denver?

That's all I'm saying.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by bgsgfan on Aug 27^th, 2005, 6:28pm

on 08/27/05 at 18:03:23, sexydexy wrote:

I don't have any prejudice or bias against Ron Dayne in any way.

But when was the last time he performed like an NFL RB to make you think he would be good in Denver?

That's all I'm saying.

This preseason. 29 carries 4.9 ypc so far. Everything coming out of training camp is glowing. The last time? Right now.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by StegRock on Aug 27^th, 2005, 7:03pm

Right, [smiley=bullseye.gif] bg...

on 08/27/05 at 18:03:23, sexydexy wrote:

I don't have any prejudice or bias against Ron Dayne in any way.

But when was the last time he performed like an NFL RB to make you think he would be good in Denver?

That's all I'm saying.

sd, I'm really not trying to pull "apples and oranges" on you, but how do you feel about Travis Taylor this year? Follow...??? I'm guessing, based on your blanket logic here, that you don't like him either. Logically, you must be applying the same rule to Taylor as you are to Dayne. ... Cris Carter SUCKED and was a TOTAL disappointment in Philly. Do I have to recap his career. Ahman Green in Seattle... [smiley=uh.gif] in Green Bay... [smiley=ohshit.gif] Reuben Droughns in Detroit... [smiley=thumbsdown.gif] in Denver... [smiley=thumbsup.gif] Ed McCaffery on the Giants was a fantasy non-factor, in Denver a solid #2/#3 most years. ... This list goes on and on. You are oversimplifying things, trying to push us into a logical corner by brow-beating us with this one(-sided), narrow-in-scope question, when, in fact, the more apropos question to be asking would be: "But when was the last time he performed like an NFL RB IN DENVER to make you think he would be good in Denver?", a question I think bg answered perfectly. ... Mind you, sd, you don't have to like Dayne. You just have to dislike him on more than just that line of reasoning.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by sexydexy on Aug 27^th, 2005, 9:09pm

It all seems moot at this point.

Anyone think Mike Anderson isn't the guy after he just busted Indy's defense?

I'm starting to think Mike Anderson will be the starter opening day now.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by StegRock on Aug 27^th, 2005, 10:03pm

on 08/27/05 at 21:09:59, sexydexy wrote:

I'm starting to think Mike Anderson will be the starter opening day now.

He very well could be. I don't disagree.

How long that remains to be the case, though, is the $100,000 question.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by DB on Aug 28^th, 2005, 6:18pm

To change the subject from the exciting battle in Denver ::), I am a bit curious about your first round pick, Jake.

As Philly pointed out ...

Quote:

Nice pick, but you could've traded down even further to get him.

Can I assume from this that you think Deuce will be amazing this year? Without knowing the rules of your league, I would assume that you feel there were compelling reasons to take Deuce over Alexander, Edge or even Manning (I am particularly curious b/c I am picking 4th in a draft next week) ;)

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by junkyardjake on Aug 28^th, 2005, 7:42pm

Quote:

As Philly pointed out ...

Quote:Nice pick, but you could've traded down even further to get him.

Can I assume from this that you think Deuce will be amazing this year? Without knowing the rules of your league, I would assume that you feel there were compelling reasons to take Deuce over Alexander, Edge or even Manning (I am particularly curious b/c I am picking 4th in a draft next week)

I think you guys are absolutely correct that Deuce at #2, or even #4 is too high. Believe it or not, I never considered Edge, Manning or Alexander, and I was attempting to trade down to a much lower spot, like #10, which would have been ideal. A trade with the #2 team was all I really had time to negotiate, since it was during work hours, and I have shit to do; I'm sure you guys can emphatize with that.

The two guys I was targeting in the 1st round were McAllister, and Kevin Jones. Now, truth be told I would have really liked to end up with Jones, but I figured there was an ever-so-slight chance that he would fall to #23 when I picked again (no such luck, he went at #7).

I think Deuce will be much improved this year, but I avoided Alexander for entirely secondary reasons, like his holdout until late July, and the fact that the Seahawks defense appears to be really awful. The Seahawks schedule is favorable this year, so Alexander is a very solid pick, I just went with my personal gameplan.

Now realistically, if you have the #4 pick and you want to play it safe, Manning is probably the guy to get. There seems to be alot of good runningback values this year in the later rounds, so as long as you use your 2nd and 3rd on backs you should do great.

However.....If you are nuts [smiley=havinablast.gif] like me, you will probably use the #4 pick on Kevin Jones or Deuce McAllister.

I don't know if you guys like to consider strength of schedule at all, but I find it is relevant for some draft decisions, especially checking out what may happen in the fantasy playoff weeks.

This particular table represents the 2005 schedules assessed against 2004 stats:

http://www.junkyardjake.com/SOS/sos_pass.htm

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by StegRock on Aug 28^th, 2005, 8:33pm

on 08/28/05 at 19:42:49, junkyardjake wrote:

This particular table represents the 2005 schedules assessed against 2004 stats:

http://www.junkyardjake.com/SOS/sos_pass.htm

Is there any way I could see a table representing the (projected) 2004 schedules assessed against 2003's stats or 2003 schedules against 2002's stats, etc., etc.? (You all know where I am going with this...)

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by Philly on Aug 28^th, 2005, 9:35pm

I think Deuce is primed for a very big year and I would not be surprised if he wound up being the #2 FF RB overall by season's end. But he is generally going in the 6-10 range in fantasy drafts and, had you had more time, probably could have traded down to get him at that point with someone who was jonesing for Manning.

Even with #2 and no trade prospects, I would have selected Shaun Alexander and then tried to work a trade with whoever selected McAllister later. But, all in all, the draft was beauty.

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by KillerKingSting on Aug 29^th, 2005, 3:12pm

on 08/28/05 at 21:35:08, Philly wrote:

I think Deuce is primed for a very big year and I would not be surprised if he wound up being the #2 FF RB overall by season's end.

I may BEE really off here but, weren't you the one who didn't like Deuce during this past offseasoning?

If so, what made you have such a drastic change of heart?

Quote:

Even with #2 and no trade prospects, I would have selected Shaun Alexander .

Yea!!! I am with yah on Alex at #2!

Also, since JYJ chose S-Jax as his #2 back, I found this little insert somewhere searching the net (sorry, can't remember where guys? - I copy & paste and move on to other readings)
about the Ram's back.

I just found it interesting anc its probably something I have been wanting to say myself but, wasn't able to get it out in such a nice flowing manner [smiley=blush.gif]

.
HERE IT IS :

Steven Jackson, Rams: Something scares me about this guy. I see the potential, and the yards per carry, the wonderful, wide-open offense the Rams provide and even the new turf which should ease the pressure on his knees. But I don't like how Jackson had knee surgery this calendar year. I don't like how Marshall Faulk lurks, how Jackson's not a good receiver and how the Rams throw so much. I don't like taking Jackson ahead of backs who should be guaranteed 20 carries per game. He won't be my second-round pick. I could see a breakout year, but I remain skeptical he's going to rush for 1,200 yards. Like the rookies, I want to see a little more

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by Philly on Aug 29^th, 2005, 4:37pm

Actually, it was not this past off-season that I was down on Deuce, it was the 2004 off-season where I was down on him.

As it turned out, he had a somewhat lackluster 2004 season, as I expected. I felt that he wouldn't find the endzone nearly enough as an "elite" back should.

For 2005, I'm much more optimistic. He only had 269 carries in 2004, he'll eclipse 325 in 2005. The beginning of the 2004 season saw Deuce complaining about the offense and his play mirrored his frustration. Now the Saints have a new offensive coordinator with a renewed emphasis on the rushing game (including much more extensive and efficient use of fullbacks as blockers). Deuce also has to be happy with a new contract (just hope he isn't complacent).

Title: Re: Drafted My Expensive League Tonight
Post by KillerKingSting on Aug 30^th, 2005, 4:19am

on 08/29/05 at 16:37:55, Philly wrote:

.

For 2005, I'm much more optimistic. He only had 269 carries in 2004, he'll eclipse 325 in 2005. The beginning of the 2004 season saw Deuce complaining about the offense and his play mirrored his frustration. Now the Saints have a new offensive coordinator with a renewed emphasis on the rushing game (including much more extensive and efficient use of fullbacks as blockers). Deuce also has to be happy with a new contract (just hope he isn't complacent).

Yes I agree!!! The BLOCKERS will BEE a HUGE part of his success this year.

Rookie ROT Jammal Brown is looking like the REAL DEAL! Hes a road plowing Bull! I am a bit surprised that Jermaine Newberry, formerly of the PHI-Eaglets, hasn't looked so impressive and perhaps may lose his starting guard spot to Holland.

Nevertheless, LOT Gandy was on the bubble at the BEEginning of camps but now has all but put that to rest as it seems he is doing well at the LOT position.

Another Shameless advertisment for the GridIron's new & upcoming article called "Grunt-Ball"!!!! Coming to a fantasy footballer newstand near you!!!!!!
Every play has a BEEginning. The skilled players may score the TDs but, it all starts up front babe-bee!!! And thats where IOLPs come in.