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        the Gridiron >> between the 20's >>  Grading the 2005 cheats
        
(Message started by: steelkings on Jan 6^th, 2006, 6:22pm)

Title: Grading the 2005 cheats
Post by steelkings on Jan 6^th, 2006, 6:22pm

Heres what I did. I took the top ten statistical players in the presented categories and compared them with the consensus rankings provided by Junk Yard Jake. This is in no means an indictment of JYJ. This was put together by consensus of:

Consensus Rankings are compiled from the following sites: Football Guys , Yahoo Sports , Sporting News , Fox Sports , About.Com, FFToolBox.Com , FFToday.Com , FantasySharks.Com , AskTheCommish.Com

I can tell you that my Sheets at FF weekly followed right along with the consensus. The info I compared the rankings with was provided by NFL.com. I usually do this type of comparison as a way of grading my preseason cheat sheets. This time as I was grading my info, I found this years cheats were very inaccurate. I hope this is clear enough to follow along.

http://www.junkyardjake.com/ManOnTheStreet/overall.htm

Passing yards

NFL. Com Top 10 Consensus Ranking

1.Tom Brady 12
2.Trent Green 4
3.Brett Farve 6
4.Carson Palmer 13
5.Eli Manning 26
6.Kerry Collins 9
7.Payton Manning 1
8.Drew Bledsoe 23
9.Drew Brees 14
10.Matt Hasselbeck 11

Note*
The consensus ranking is just QB rankings. Not overall. Tom Brady was ranked as the 12th best QB by the rankings.

Passing Touchdowns

1.Carson Palmer 13
2.Payton Manning 1
3.Tom Brady 12
4.Drew Brees 14
5.Matt Hasselbeck 11
6.Eli Manning 26
7.Jake Delhomme 15
8.Drew Bledsoe 23
9.Mark Brunell 38
10.Kerry Collins 9

Note*
Only 2 of the actual top ten were projected to be in the top 10

Rushing Yards

Shaun Alexander 2
Tiki Barber 10
Larry Johnson 35
Clinton Portis 11
Edge James 3
Lad Tomlinson 1
Rudi Johnson 13
Warrick Dunn 22
Thomas Jones 33
Willis McGahee 5

Rushing Touchdowns

Shaun Alexander 2
Larry Johnson 35
Lad Tomlinson 1
Edge James 3
Corey Dillon 8
Rudi Johnson 13
Mike Anderson 77
Stephen Davis 47
Clinton Portis 11
Jerome Bettis 36

Note*
Mike Anderson at 77 was actually figured behind Maurice Clarrett.

Receiving Yards

Steve Smith 18
Santana Moss 29
Chad Johnson 3
Larry Fitzgerald 28
Anquan Bolden 14
Torry Holt 4
Joey Galloway 47
Donald Driver 17
Plax Burress 37
Marvin Harrison 5

Receiving Touchdowns

Marvin Harrison 5
Steve Smith 18
Chris Chambers 23
Hines Ward 15
Antoinio Gates 10
Joe Jurevicius 64
Larry Fitzgerald 28
Joey Galloway 47
Chad Johnson 3
Keenan McCardell 44

There are the numbers. Start the discusion

Title: Re: Grading the 2005 cheats
Post by Oakland4life on Jan 6^th, 2006, 6:44pm

I don't want to get into great detail about the cheat sheet rankings for your draft. But, I will say that I hardly EVER use the rankings that they give me. Because it is so difficult to try and predict how a player will perform before the season even starts.

Take Joe Jurevicious for example. There is no way he would be on that list if D. Jax didn't get injured. Also, Im sure that Deuce, Duce, Priest, R. Moss, J. Walker, J. Jones..etc.. were all in the top ten in their respective categories, until they all got injured.

Personally, its not really fair to compare the season ending stat leaders to draft cheat sheets. Simply because of injuries. Then their backup ends up being a super stud ( Barber, Parker) and when they get healthy, the lose playing time.

Yea, some may be closer than others. But, that is usually luck...which just happens to be discussed on another thread ;D

O4L

Title: Re: Grading the 2005 cheats
Post by junkyardjake on Jan 7^th, 2006, 1:18am

Cool analysis SteelKings, I think everyone kind of blew it this season on the rankings for certain players in particular. I know I had Joe Jurevicius ranked in the 80's, but like Oakland pointed out, the Jackson injury really affected the disparity between projection and reality.

Also, everybody really tempered their projections for players like Carson Palmer and Eli Manning, and conversely, players like Kevin Jones and Randy Moss were very unpleasant surprises.

I still think consensus rankings are very useful, because to the extent that you can use them in comparison to your own personal rankings, you can identify value players in the later rounds of your draft.

For example, you could have picked up Santana Moss in like the 8th-9th round of most drafts, even if you were personally high on him in preseason. The consensus rankings (and average draft data, which is probably even better for this purpose) would suggest that you shouldn't have wasted a high pick on Moss.