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"the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy WR's for '05
« on: Jul 12th, 2005, 1:31am » |
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The next part of "the better half" series is now on tap...  ... Wide receivers... This list exhibits BIG-time sackola... 
(Here is a link to the Quarterback rankings thread:
http://www.fantasyfootballer.com/cgi-bin/theGridiron/YaBB.cgi?board=55;a ction=display;num=1120885279,
and one for the Running Back rankings thread:
http://www.fantasyfootballer.com/cgi-bin/theGridiron/YaBB.cgi?board=55;a ction=display;num=1121408891.)
The Deep Top Tier
  UPSWING (expected) 1) Torry Holt  - 1,350 to 1,700 yards / 10 to 15 touchdowns... The safest bet of the top tier, bottom line. Currently the best finesse speedster in the game; outstanding system; solid quarterback; good character; decent injury history.*
UPSWING ("") 2) Javon Walker  - 1,350 to 1,650 yards / 10 to 16 touchdowns... The only thing holding Walker back is himself... by way of a stupid potential holdout. He is SO on the verge of breaking out. Great prototypical go-to wideout; excellent system; great quarterback; potentially questionable character; good injury situation.
 DOWNSWING 3) Randy Moss   - 1,200 to 1,750 yards / 10 to 15 touchdowns... Everybody talks about ALL the depth the Raiders now have at wideout and, also, about ALL the balls Randy is going to take from the rest. What about ALL the balls the rest are going to take from Randy? New team, new system, no Daunte, no more "only show in town". The windows are WIDE-open for Randy in '05. The model of what a wide receiver should be physically; how he'll fit in the system is a question mark; decent quarterback; bad character; questionable injury situation.
NO SWING 4) Chad Johnson  - 1,200 to 1,550 yards / 10 to 14 touchdowns... Will continue to increase his impact as he grows (up) with Carson Palmer. Awesome athlete; questionable system; young quarterback with A LOT of growing still to do; questionable character; decent injury situation.
NO SWING 5) Marvin Harrison  - 1,150 to 1,500 yards / 11 to 15 touchdowns... Well-established go-to guy for "the (long "e")" premiere NFL quarterback. What more is there to say? The old top finesse speedster who still has incredible hands; outstanding system; "the" quarterback; impeccable character; good injury situation.
NO SWING 6) Joe Horn   - 1,200 to 1,450 yards / 9 to 13 touchdowns... This guy just keeps on putting up number. He can't be denied elite status. Workmanlike player who shows up gameday in and gameday out; good system; erratic quarterback who may get the hook by midseason (though that may be a good thing); so-so character; decent injury situation.
DOWNSWING 7) Terrell Owens  - 1,250 to 1,550 (pace) / 12 to 18 touchdowns (pace)... This downgraded ranking is ALL ABOUT his potential holdout and seemingly deteriorating relationship with Donovan McNabb. He shows up in camp within the next couple weeks, bump him up perhaps all the way to #1; until then, I, in my mind, cannot justify taking him before the aforementioned six. Another physical specimen and absolute prototype of a go-to wideout; great system; strong-armed, but inaccurate superstar quarterback; poor character; okay injury history.
The Surprising Second Tier
NO SWING 8) Hines Ward   - 1,150 to 1,400 yards / 7 to 12 touchdowns... What a match!!! Workman Ward and Steeltown!!! With Plax gone and Randle El still growing into the role of NFL wideout, Ward should reap the harvest and have an up year. All-around, workmanlike stud; not a good system; young, growing quarterback; outstanding character; great injury situation.
UPSWING 9) Drew Bennett  - 1,100 to 1,400 yards / 9 to 11 touchdowns... With Mason, who was good, but not really an ideal go-to guy, gone, I am one who believes that Bennett's numbers from last year are an extrapolative reflection of what he can do this year. A yet unknown, but workmanlike player; new intriguing system, with the key word being "new", however; solid, but injury-prone quarterback; unknown character; unknown injury situation, but he is a youngin.
UPSWING 10) Darrell Jackson  - 1,200 to 1,350 yards / 7 to 11 touchdowns... Jackson's the Seahawks guy. He has been given the seal of approval and the according go-to-guy reigns... Koren has been eliminated. Unusual college cornerback-convert receiver, who oftentimes still looks to have the hands of a cornerback, not a reciever; decent system that still really isn't clicking, however; so-so quarterback; good character; good injury situation.
UPSWING 11) Ashley Lelie  - 1,150 to 1,350 yards / 7 to 11 touchdowns... It's time for the transition (statistical, at least) from Rod Smith to Lelie to take place, and in the process Ashley gets to learn for probably at least one year from the greatest of all-time. Great physical specimen, but questionable work ethic; great system; up-and-down quarterback, who is on the brink of finally putting it together, though; questionable character, but is surrounded by a couple greats; somewhat worrisome injury situation.
UPSWING 12) Steve Smith  - 1,150 to 1,300 yards / 7 to 11 touchdowns... He's back and Muhsin is gone. Keary will be a great complement and, with his (very early '04) not-so-bad injury long behind him, he is ready to pick up where he left off. This is the guy your less savvy fantasy footballers are forgetting about. Prototypical speedster with some serious added toughness; okay system; great, big-play quarterback; questionable character; not good, but not bad injury situation.
NO SWING 13) Michael Clayton   - 1,100 to 1,300 yards / 6 to 11 touchdowns... We only have a year's worth of data on the guy. Quarterback and system are question marks. Galloway is still a presence. Will he sophomorically slump? (In contradistinction with Smith above...) This is the guy your less savvy fantasy footballers will overvalue. Solid player; so-so system; BIG question marks at quarterback; good character; good injury situation.
UPSWING 14) Eddie Kennison  - 1,000 to 1,350 yards / 6 to 12 touchdowns... For whatever reason, Vermeil and this guy love each other. Kennison steps his game up for him and Vermeil is always willing to give him a chance. He has a chance to be the go-to wide receiver in an awesome system. The sky's pretty much the limit and he's peering through wide-open windows at it. Will he mess it up? Flashy, streaky, inconsistent player; outstanding system; great quarterback; poor character, but not for Vermeil; so-so injury situation.
NO SWING 15) Reggie Wayne - 1,050 to 1,250 yards / 9 to 13 touchdowns... Hard for me to rank a wideout who is not even the go-to guy on his team any higher than this despite the team he plays on. I just think because of that reality, there is a cap on the high-end of what he can produce. There are a lot of guys competing for balls in Indy and he is not even #1 on the list. Simply solid player; outstanding system; "the" quarterback; so-so character; good injury situation.
UPSWING 16) Deion Branch  - 1,000 to 1,250 yards / 6 to 12 touchdowns... The Pats will have to step up their "O" this year given the hits they've taken on the defensive side of the ball. As such, they'll be relying more on their aerial attack. Patten's 800 yards are gone. Branch is poised to take over and finally give Tom Brady and the Pats a go-to receiver. Super athlete; okay system; "Cool Hand Luke" quarterback; good character; poor injury situation.
*(By "injury situation", I mean that I am considering a mix of history of injuries, age, ability to recover quickly, and exposure to injury based on style of play.)
Feel free to comment and critique and add your own "Top 16" lists. Just don't be lazy about it!  Think it through...  Keep the quality high!
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| « Last Edit: Jul 15th, 2005, 2:36am by Stegfucius » |
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Re: "the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy WR's for '05
« Reply #1 on: Jul 12th, 2005, 11:44pm » |
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Very nicely done, Steg. I like the details, esp. as regards work ethic, system, injury history/status, etc. Props are in order.
I have a few "issues" with your rankings. First, I am really surprised that you have Eddie Kennison ranked higher than Reggie Wayne. Gonzo takes the cream of the crop of Trent Green's td's, and I think Wayne is a rising star --I'll think he'll give Marvin Harrison a major run for his money as far as fantasy stats are concerned, whereas Eddie has yet to break 1000 yards, right?
Second, I wouldn't put Drew Bennett anywhere near Hines Ward. I think Hines deserves a higher spot than you give him: I'd surely take him over Joe Horn, and probably over Chad Johnson as well. Hines is on the receiving end of a more experienced Big Ben, and Plax is out of the equation.
I'm intrigued by your #1 ranking of Torry Holt -- so you expect him to repeat his 2003 performance? That was an amazing year for him, and he couldn't help but have a "letdown" the next year after a performance like that.
I get a feeling that Randy Moss will still produce big this year -- Jerry Porter is probably the best #2 receiver in the league, and the Raiders have a couple of really promising young receivers in the wings -- Gabriel and Curry. So while one might look at the aspect of Randy getting tds and yards taken away by these receivers, on the flip side opposing defenses will have to respect these receivers, thus leaving Randy more open. Still, it's a tough call to make as far as fantasy predictions.
Finally, I guess I don't have the guts to make any predictions of how any Pats receiver will do, even though Branch is my boy on that team. It's just a crap shoot, it seems to me.
Still, overall, I found your rankings very insightful, and hence very helpful.
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