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Topic: "the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy RB's for '05 (Read 574 times) |
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Philosopher King
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"the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy RB's for '05
« on: Jul 15th, 2005, 2:28am » |
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The final ballsy installment of "the better half" (The irony here is that today is my wife's and my five-year anniversary... How's that for dedication... or addiction?) series is here... Running backs...
***NOTE: ALL totals, yardage and touchdowns, for RB's are in terms of COMBINED rushing AND receiving.***
(Here is a link to the Quarterback rankings thread:
http://www.fantasyfootballer.com/cgi-bin/theGridiron/YaBB.cgi?board=55;a ction=display;num=1120885279,
and one to the Wide Receiver rankings thread:
http://www.fantasyfootballer.com/cgi-bin/theGridiron/YaBB.cgi?board=55;a ction=display;num=1121146307.)
The Top Tier - The Fantastic Four
NO SWING (expected) 1) LaDainian Tomlinson  - 1,700 to 2,200 yards / 16 to 20 touchdowns... An awesome talent playing in a run-first offense with just enough of a passing game, of which mind you he is a significant part, to take enough heat off him. The best all-around runner in the game; outstanding system; quarterback situation could disappoint and become interesting, i.e. not good; good character; great injury situation.*
  UPSWING ("") 2) Tiki Barber  - 1,700 to 2,100 yards / 13 to 17 touchdowns... He's still in his prime and the numbers simply don't lie. This guy is the most undervalued fantasy back. In some drafts, he can be gotten in round two and yet he'll put up top-three numbers. Great all-around running back; outstanding system (Coughlin will use the hell out of him); young quarterback with a lot of growing pains still ahead, BUT perhaps the perfect QB sitch for a RB from a fantasy perspective; impeccable character; so-so injury situation.
UPSWING 3) Edgerrin James  - 1,700 to 2,100 yards / 11 to 16 touchdowns... This will be Edge's biggest campaign. After last year, ALL emphasis will be on stopping Indy's passing game. The Colts will go to and then deeper than ever into the playoffs on the back of their great back. The second-best all-around runner in the NFL; awesome system; "the (long "e") quarterback, who actually may be too good in a way when considering Edge from a fantasy perspective; okay character; okay injury situation.
NO SWING 4) Shaun Alexander  - 1,700 to 2,000 yards / 16 to 20 touchdowns... The potential hold-out holds him back from being in the #2 slot. Moreover, though, he's a back with a questionable work ethic in an offense that really has yet to consistently click. Great runner with awesome nose for the endzone; good system, but should be better; so-so quarterback, which could be good fantasy-wise; questionable character; good injury situation.
The One-man Second Tier
NO SWING 5) Priest Holmes  - 1,500 to 2,000 yards (pace) / 14 to 21 touchdowns (pace)... Injuries just have to be a concern at this point... so does the presence of Larry Johnson. All this makes for wide-open "windows". Awesome all-around back; (the) perfect system (for his type of player); solid quarterback; great character; very bad injury situation.
The Third Tier
NO SWING 6) Rudi Johnson  - 1,550 to 1,750 yards / 12 to 15 touchdowns... Will benefit from a more mature quarterback and a rapidly improving offense with a lot of weapons. Great north-south runner; okay system; improving mid-range quarterback, perfect fantasy-wise; fairly unknown character... no news is good news; good injury situation.
NO SWING 7) Corey Dillon  - 1,550 to 1,750 yards / 10 to 14 touchdowns... As per my write-up on Tom Brady on my QB rankings thread, I am concerned about Dillon's production this year as the Patriots may be relying more on the pass because of both the change at offensive coordinator and some hits they've taken on defense this offseason. Among the best north-south runners in the game; good system; great quarterback both NFL-wise and fantasy-wise; poor character; great injury situation.
NO SWING 8) Deuce McAllister   - 1,450 to 1,700 yards / 11 to 15 touchdowns... This could be a great comeback year for the Saints or a disastrous season. I believe the latter. As such McAllister is a risky pick. Great all-around back; okay system; poor (decision-making), erratic quarterback; good character; so-so injury situation.
NO SWING 9) Willis McGahee  - 1,400 to 1,700 yards / 10 to 16 touchdowns... This guy's being WAY overrated in the fantasy football world. He looks like he's going to be awesome, but a) he still doesn't have that many starts under his belt, b) new, totally unproven quarterback and, my main concern, c) Henry still lurks and, if he is still on the Bills come Week One, they'll be looking to showcase him for a trade. Apparently great all-around runner; good system; big question mark at quarterback; decent character; worrisome injury situation.
The Fourth Tier - Where the TD's drop off
NO SWING 10) Kevin Jones  - 1,350 to 1,650 yards / 8 to 12 touchdowns... The Lions may be this year's Chargers and, if so, that means Jones will be rolling. Great shifty back; great system; question mark at quarterback, but Garcia as the backup is awesome insurance; unknown character; unknown injury situation.
NO SWING 11) Jamal Lewis  - 1,300 to 1,650 yards / 8 to 12 touchdowns... This guy could go for 2,000 if things reverted to the situation in '03. But, Billick ultimately likes to air it out and with Boller improving and the additions of Mason and Clayton, their offense is going to become more balanced. The best north-south runner in the game, who can cut the corner with the best as well; good system that may be in transition, however; improving quarterback who the jury is still out on; poor character; so-so injury situation.
UPSWING 12) Steven Jackson  - 1,300 to 1,500 yards / 8 to 12 touchdowns... It all depends on how much Faulk cuts in on his gig. I am of the opinion that it won't be much. This guy's the real deal and Faulk is done and Martz needs to win. Great all-around back who runs strong up the middle; great system; solid quarterback; good character; good injury situation.
UPSWING 13) Warrick Dunn  - 1,300 to 1,500 yards / 8 to 12 touchdowns... While he's still in his prime, T.J. will have to wait. In any event, they make a perfect one-two-punch, lightning-and-thunder combination. The thing is Dunn, though scat-back in stature, runs like he's 5'10", 210 lbs. Also, he's in a perfect situation with Vick as his quarterback. As far as running backs go, he is "Mighty Mouse"; perfect system for him; perfect quarterback for him; impeccable character; poor injury situation.
NO SWING 14) Curtis Martin  - 1,200 to 1,500 yards / 10 to 12 touchdowns... You know exactly what you'll minimally get with Curtis. He never succumbs to injury. Jordan is no longer there to cut into his PT. He's just come off his first-ever rushing title. How can he be denied? Incredible vision and second only to Emmitt as the best chug-along, steady-Eddie, week-in-and-week-out workhorse ever; so-so system; solid quarterback; impeccable character; how can I put it? ... NO injury situation.
NO SWING 15) Julius Jones  - 1,250 to 1,450 yards / 8 to 12 touchdowns... Parcells loves his feature backs and will use the hell out of them and he finally found his in Dallas by the end of last season. This guy ran really strong behind a weak o-line. He's the real deal. Looks to be one of the next sensations at running back, strong and shifty runner; good system, but terrible o-line; quarterback situation again in transition; unknown character; so-so injury situation.
 DOWNSWING 16) Ahman Green  - 1,200 to 1,450 yards / 7 to 11 touchdowns... He just isn't the only show in town. He plays second fiddle to Favre and the passing game, which includes the emerging Javon Walker. If Walker holds out, though, I would probably bump Green up this list one to three spots. Great all-around back, BIG-time speedster; awesome system; great quarterback, but not so much so from a fantasy perspective; decent character; worrisome injury situation.
*(By "injury situation", I mean that I am considering a mix of history of injuries, age, ability to recover quickly, and exposure to injury based on a) style of play and b) o-line protection.)
Feel free to comment and critique and add your own "Top 16" lists. Just don't be lazy about it!  Think it through...  Keep the quality high!
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| « Last Edit: Aug 4th, 2005, 11:25am by Stegfucius » |
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Philosopher King
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Re: "the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy RB's for '05
« Reply #1 on: Jul 21st, 2005, 4:51pm » |
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Wow! No commentary on this. This, I thought, was the most controversial of my three lists and, not to mention, it's the all-important RB's list. I thought for sure you guys would be getting all critical on me. Or, on the other hand, I expected those of you who appreciate rankings that are a bit more "independent-minded" to state how pleased you are with these.
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Skinny_Dennis
Tackling Dummy
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Re: "the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy RB's for '05
« Reply #2 on: Jul 29th, 2005, 4:08pm » |
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Mr. StegRock,
Let's cracka-lackin says M. Hahn and I say you're off base in two spots on your Top 16 Fantasy RB's.
First up - Tiki Barber is not the number 2 guy and should not be listed upswing. Why? Two words Eli Manning. If Eli plays like a typical second year player and not like his big bro' the opposing teams will stack against the run. If he plays like P. Manning then I say the offense changes and Toomer and Burris get losts of balls downfield, a la R. Wayne, B. Stookly and M. Harrison. Either way, in my humble opinion, Tiki's touches decline and his fantasy value suffers.
What your other point, you ask — how about Corey Dillon in Barber's place at number 2. I think the change in O coordinator helps the New England running game. No one but big Charlie could keep coming up with the variety of passing plays for Brady. I predict a simpler, run-the-ball offense for the Pats and Dillon will benefit. Lots of carries, plenty of yards and Td's.
Now let's cracka-lackin,
Skinny Dennis
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Philosopher King
of Fantasy Football
Site Administrator
GBRFLer
Champ - '94, '99, '02, '04
I love ''the Gridiron''!
Posts: 19699
Back to top
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Re: "the Red Zone" Top 16 Fantasy RB's for '05
« Reply #4 on: Sep 11th, 2005, 1:27pm » |
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on Jul 15th, 2005, 2:28am, StegRock wrote:| NO SWING 5) Priest Holmes - 1,500 to 2,000 yards (pace) / 14 to 21 touchdowns (pace)... Injuries just have to be a concern at this point... so does the presence of Larry Johnson. All this makes for wide-open "windows". Awesome all-around back; (the) perfect system (for his type of player); solid quarterback; great character; very bad injury situation. |
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Opening drive case in point, Priest takes it 35 AND THEN Larry takes it 35 more for the touchdown. That would NOT have happened in the past. This is the new arrangement, Priest owners. Get used to it!!! I warned yous... here, there and in MANY other discussion on "the Gridiron"... I only hope you heeded the Steg...  ...  ... 
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