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Topic: 6-0 Vikings - Week 8 Analysis (Read 334 times) |
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Red Zone Master
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6-0 Vikings - Week 8 Analysis
« on: Oct 23rd, 2003, 2:16pm » |
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At first glance, this game looks like a less than daunting task for the undefeated Vikings. Don't be fooled! NYG are probably 2 big plays away from being 4-2, rather than 2-4.
Reviewing team offensive rankings:
Team YPG Rank PPG Rank
MIN 374.0 #1 29.8 #1
NYG 352.5 #6 17.5 #24
This tells me NYG is moving the ball well, but not scoring for some reason. That reason appears to be turnovers:
Team YPG Rank PPG Rank
MIN 18 #2 5 #2
NYG 9 #31 17.5 #24
This begs the question, can NYG protect the ball enough to win this weekend? I think the disparity will be too much to overcome, and a lot of pressure on Kerry Collins causes a couple more INTs minimum this week.
When NYG has the ball...
The pressure will be on Collins because NYG just lost their starting left guard for the season, and are now starting all rookies on the interior line. That's a tall order, and I think the Vikes get a lot of pressure on Collins because of it. If Fassel wants to avoid that pressure, he'll have to keep Tiki in the backfield, or go double tight end sets to allow the tackles to block down. Either way, that severely limits what NYG likes to do on offense, where they like to use Shockey and Barber in the short passing game to open up the deep ball to Toomer and Hilliard. I think NYG tries to pound Tiki and uses play-action to try to get Toomer and Hilliard deep. Portis had success running the ball last week on MIN, and though Barber is no Portis, he is averaging 90 ypg. Early success running can open up the passing lane over the middle for Hilliard crossing and Shockey streaking down the seams.
When MIN has the ball...
I think the Giants are in trouble this week handling Moss. The only guy over 6' in the secondary is Williams (SS). They will be forced to double Moss (6'4"), and even then, his sub-4.3 40 speed should torch the NYG secondary. I know Allen has sub-4.3 speed too, but he's going backwards, and Moss is going forwards. And if he plays 8yds off, the Vikings have shown enough patience to take the 6yd quick hitch to Moss as long as it's there. On the other side of the field, I really like the Kelly Campbell vs Serwanga matchup. Serwanga only ran a 4.62 40 coming out of college in 98, and probably hasn't gotten faster, vs Campbell's 4.36. I think the Vikings can throw all day on this defense. I know STL had no luck with such a plan Week 1, but that was Warner at QB, not a white-hot Daunte Culpepper. Finally, and I know I predicted this last week, but the massive O-line of MIN will take over toward the end of this game. I was extremely surprised they couldn't do it vs DEN, but after pass rushing much of the game, NYG D-line will be worn out, and I think MIN gets a lot of rushing yds in the 4th.
The Key Matchups
Strahan vs Rosenthal
These guys went up against eachother everyday in practice last year, so there's a lot of familiarity there. Still, Strahan is a future HOFer, while Rosenthal is good to pretty good at best. Advantage NYG.
Moss vs Allen
No one has been able to shut The Freak down this year, and NYG won't either. Allen is a good CB, but at 5'10", it won't matter that he can run with Moss because he can't jump with him. Advantage MIN
NYG rookie interior line vs Hovan/Robbins
If the 3 rookies starting at C, RG & LG can handle the blitzes they're going to see and give Collins time, NYG will have success. NYG has only allowed 11 sacks this year, but part of that is Collins doing a good job of not taking them. He's still getting hurried a lot. In the end, disruption in the interior line is never good. Advantage MIN.
The Game
NYG really needs to score first in this one. If they can get up 7-0, 10-0, and then start running Tiki to setup the play-action, they're going to be quite successful. If they fall behind at all, even 7-0, and the dome starts a rockin', then I see the turnovers continuing to plague NYG as the MIN D brings the house at Collins. I do see NYG getting some more points this week than they have done so far this season, but without the play-action, I don't think NYG can be effective enough to win it. Vikes win an exciting game 35-27.
Forecast
Minnesota 35 New York Giants 27
Daunte Culpepper - 310 pa.yds & 3TDs, 45 ru.yds & 1TD, 1INT - Lights the lamp big time this week, can he really go another week w/o a pick?
Moe Williams - 80 ru.yds & 1TD, 35 rec.yds- 4th quarter pounds the ball to put it away (yep same as last week)
Onterrio Smith - 30 ru.yds - Wont get much with the ball in the air all day
Randy Moss - 130 yds, 1TD - Jump fade will be a Pop Warner route called The Moss next year
Kelly Campbell - 105 yds 2TD - Great matchup vs Serwanga
Nate Burleson - 25 yds - Can get open in the RZ, but Moss is dominating those looks right now
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 15 yds - TE not needed in this one.
Aaron Elling - 5 XP - Back supposed to be healed by Sunday, but he's not needed
D/ST - 2 INT, 3 sacks - Collins sees purple when he closes his eyes Sunday night.
Kerri Collins - 265 yds, 2TD, 2 INT - Very effective passer when given time, but won't have it this week.
Tiki Barber - 105 ru.yds & 1TD, 55 rec. yds, 1TD - Collins won't have enough time to go elsewhere, and Barber sees a ton of checkdowns this week
Amani Toomer - 40 yds - Speed guy doesn't see much this week
Ike Hilliard - 95 yds & 1TD - Some good looks over the middle
Jeremy Shockey - 75 yds - Sees the dump offs and drags that Barber doesn't
Bret Conway - 2 FG, 3 XP
D/ST 1 INT, 2 sacks - Strahan will be chomping at the bit vs Rosenthal.
GO VIKES!
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| « Last Edit: Oct 23rd, 2003, 2:27pm by Stegfucius » |
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3 straight underperforming seasons, one nitwit head coach, 2 problem child WRs, 1 collosal trade bungle....but a wild boat party with booze and hookers!!!????? Priceless.
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Red Zone Master
# 179
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Re: 6-0 Vikings - Week 8 Analysis
« Reply #3 on: Oct 27th, 2003, 12:33pm » |
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on Oct 23rd, 2003, 2:16pm, captainpurple wrote:At first glance, this game looks like a less than daunting task for the undefeated Vikings. Don't be fooled! NYG are probably 2 big plays away from being 4-2, rather than 2-4.
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Ughhh... It pains be to have to re-analyze this game, but I guess you take the good with the bad. NYG certainly proved they are a better team than how they've played so far. I was pretty close on how the game would progress, who the big producers would be (Shockey & Hilliard). GMEN did jump out early, and had a nice offense going. I didn't see the NYG D being as effective as they were shutting the run down. Also, WRs opposite Moss didn't step up, which hurt an offense that relies on big plays.
on Oct 23rd, 2003, 2:16pm, captainpurple wrote:
Reviewing team offensive rankings: **edited for brevity **
This tells me NYG is moving the ball well, but not scoring for some reason. That reason appears to be turnovers:
This begs the question, can NYG protect the ball enough to win this weekend? I think the disparity will be too much to overcome, and a lot of pressure on Kerry Collins causes a couple more INTs minimum this week.
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Collins easily played his best game of the year. He had a lot of pressure, but Fassel had the correct offensive game plan and had the short passes going, which reduced the time Collins needed.
on Oct 23rd, 2003, 2:16pm, captainpurple wrote:
When NYG has the ball...
The pressure will be on Collins because NYG just lost their starting left guard for the season, and are now starting all rookies on the interior line. That's a tall order, and I think the Vikes get a lot of pressure on Collins because of it. If Fassel wants to avoid that pressure, he'll have to keep Tiki in the backfield, or go double tight end sets to allow the tackles to block down. Either way, that severely limits what NYG likes to do on offense, where they like to use Shockey and Barber in the short passing game to open up the deep ball to Toomer and Hilliard. I think NYG tries to pound Tiki and uses play-action to try to get Toomer and Hilliard deep. Portis had success running the ball last week on MIN, and though Barber is no Portis, he is averaging 90 ypg. Early success running can open up the passing lane over the middle for Hilliard crossing and Shockey streaking down the seams.
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Yep, that's exactly what they did, and they were very successful. Hilliard and Shockey had big games as predicted.
on Oct 23rd, 2003, 2:16pm, captainpurple wrote:
When MIN has the ball...
I think the Giants are in trouble this week handling Moss. The only guy over 6' in the secondary is Williams (SS). They will be forced to double Moss (6'4"), and even then, his sub-4.3 40 speed should torch the NYG secondary. I know Allen has sub-4.3 speed too, but he's going backwards, and Moss is going forwards. And if he plays 8yds off, the Vikings have shown enough patience to take the 6yd quick hitch to Moss as long as it's there. On the other side of the field, I really like the Kelly Campbell vs Serwanga matchup. Serwanga only ran a 4.62 40 coming out of college in 98, and probably hasn't gotten faster, vs Campbell's 4.36. I think the Vikings can throw all day on this defense. I know STL had no luck with such a plan Week 1, but that was Warner at QB, not a white-hot Daunte Culpepper. Finally, and I know I predicted this last week, but the massive O-line of MIN will take over toward the end of this game. I was extremely surprised they couldn't do it vs DEN, but after pass rushing much of the game, NYG D-line will be worn out, and I think MIN gets a lot of rushing yds in the 4th.
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Campbell going inactive threw a wrench in my analysis (and my fantasy team!  ). Still, Moss was as unstoppable as ever. The Vikes must get the running game going earlier though. It cost them in this one. They racked up 126 in the second half, but were still unable to put it away when they had to.
on Oct 23rd, 2003, 2:16pm, captainpurple wrote:
The Key Matchups
Strahan vs Rosenthal
These guys went up against eachother everyday in practice last year, so there's a lot of familiarity there. Still, Strahan is a future HOFer, while Rosenthal is good to pretty good at best. Advantage NYG.
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BINGO! Strahan proves he's still the class DE in the league. Give SRice, LLittle, JAbraham, etc. the press, and this guy quietly does his work and proves he's still setting the bar.
on Oct 23rd, 2003, 2:16pm, captainpurple wrote:
Moss vs Allen
No one has been able to shut The Freak down this year, and NYG won't either. Allen is a good CB, but at 5'10", it won't matter that he can run with Moss because he can't jump with him. Advantage MIN
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$$$$$ - I guess I'll just keep reiterating this until someone proves me wrong. Unless Linehan takes the ball out of Moss' hands via the game plan, this guy will put up guady #s.
on Oct 23rd, 2003, 2:16pm, captainpurple wrote:
NYG rookie interior line vs Hovan/Robbins
If the 3 rookies starting at C, RG & LG can handle the blitzes they're going to see and give Collins time, NYG will have success. NYG has only allowed 11 sacks this year, but part of that is Collins doing a good job of not taking them. He's still getting hurried a lot. In the end, disruption in the interior line is never good. Advantage MIN.
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 Groan. Pressure was there, but one of the few times they actually hit him Hovan drew a HUGE roughing penalty. I think Fassel deserves the credit for winning this battle, but I'll give it to the O-line who executed his game plan.
on Oct 23rd, 2003, 2:16pm, captainpurple wrote:
The Game
NYG really needs to score first in this one. If they can get up 7-0, 10-0, and then start running Tiki to setup the play-action, they're going to be quite successful. If they fall behind at all, even 7-0, and the dome starts a rockin', then I see the turnovers continuing to plague NYG as the MIN D brings the house at Collins. I do see NYG getting some more points this week than they have done so far this season, but without the play-action, I don't think NYG can be effective enough to win it. Vikes win an exciting game 35-27.
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Book it Danno. G-Men got up early, and then stuffed what the Vikes wanted to do out of the gate, which was to run the ball down the Giants throat. Credit to NYG for tilting the game in their favor early. Dome was quieter than a convent. I knew G-Men had a better O than they had shown, and would get theirs this week. I didn't know the Vikes would be shutdown on O like they were.
on Oct 23rd, 2003, 2:16pm, captainpurple wrote:
Forecast
Minnesota 35 New York Giants 27
Daunte Culpepper - 310 pa.yds & 3TDs, 45 ru.yds & 1TD, 1INT - Lights the lamp big time this week, can he really go another week w/o a pick?
Moe Williams - 80 ru.yds & 1TD, 35 rec.yds- 4th quarter pounds the ball to put it away (yep same as last week)
Onterrio Smith - 30 ru.yds - Wont get much with the ball in the air all day
Randy Moss - 130 yds, 1TD - Jump fade will be a Pop Warner route called The Moss next year
Kelly Campbell - 105 yds 2TD - Great matchup vs Serwanga
Nate Burleson - 25 yds - Can get open in the RZ, but Moss is dominating those looks right now
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 15 yds - TE not needed in this one.
Aaron Elling - 5 XP - Back supposed to be healed by Sunday, but he's not needed
D/ST - 2 INT, 3 sacks - Collins sees purple when he closes his eyes Sunday night.
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After-cast
Minnesota 17 New York Giants 29
Daunte Culpepper - 241 pa.yds & 2TDs, 48 ru.yds, 2INT - Got more pressure than he's seen all year. An ineffective game plan and no running game made it a long day for DC
Moe Williams - 69 ru.yds, 19 rec.yds- Gained 48 of those ruYds in the 4th quarter, but too little too late.
Onterrio Smith - 32 ru.yds, 17 rec.yds - Got the start, still didn't get much
Randy Moss - 125 yds, 2TD - Money! This guy looks like he's playing PS2, and everyone else has an Atari.
Kelly Campbell - DNP, OUCH!
Nate Burleson - 52 yds - Dissappointed as he couldn't take advantage of a key matchup. Howry ended up playing a lot in the 2nd half.
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 8 yds - TE not needed in this one.
Aaron Elling - 1FG (1 miss) , 2 XP - Back supposed to be healed by Sunday, it was, but missed a key FG and cost Tice confidence in trying another couple long ones in the second half.
D/ST - 1 INT, 1 sack - Collins sees purple when he closes his eyes Sunday night. Apparently from looking at the backs of all the defenders all day!
on Oct 23rd, 2003, 2:16pm, captainpurple wrote:
Kerri Collins - 265 yds, 2TD, 2 INT - Very effective passer when given time, but won't have it this week.
Tiki Barber - 105 ru.yds & 1TD, 55 rec. yds, 1TD - Collins won't have enough time to go elsewhere, and Barber sees a ton of checkdowns this week
Amani Toomer - 40 yds - Speed guy doesn't see much this week
Ike Hilliard - 95 yds & 1TD - Some good looks over the middle
Jeremy Shockey - 75 yds - Sees the dump offs and drags that Barber doesn't
Bret Conway - 2 FG, 3 XP
D/ST 1 INT, 2 sacks - Strahan will be chomping at the bit vs Rosenthal.
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Kerri Collins - 375 yds, 2TD, 1 INT - Very effective passer when given time, AND HAD JUST ENOUGH THIS WEEK. Short passing game was right on.
Tiki Barber - 75 ru.yds & 1TD, 47 rec. yds - Right on the money for stats, though 1TD went elsewhere.
Amani Toomer - 96 yds - Shoulda had at least 1TD if he could hang on to the ball.
Ike Hilliard - 100 yds & 2TD - Took advantage of favorable matchup and was huge this week.
Jeremy Shockey - 81 yds - Saw the seam routes and drags as expected.
Bret Conway - 3 FG, 2 XP - Close enough.
D/ST 2 INT, 4 sacks - One of the picks was garbage time, but the 4 sacks were big, Strahan dominated.
In the end, I think Linehan/OLeary got out-coached in this one. GMen didn't dominate, but had a great O gameplan early, and D was able to disrupt Vikes O enough to win this one. Gotta give Fassel credit as he coached this one beautifully.
'til next week....GO VIKES!
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3 straight underperforming seasons, one nitwit head coach, 2 problem child WRs, 1 collosal trade bungle....but a wild boat party with booze and hookers!!!????? Priceless.
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