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Red Zone Master
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Vikings - Week 9 Analysis
« on: Oct 30th, 2003, 1:18pm » |
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Ahhh, PackerWeek! No week is met with more anticipation for Viking football fans. The joy of sending the Pukers packing back to Cheeseland is hard to match.
Side note: it's a good thing the Packers were on bye and have road game bookends to it. The endzones had to be re-sodded at Lambeau. Apparently, the can't keep the Moss out of them!
Ok, how will this week play out? Very hard to break this one down because Brat Farte plays more like Oscar Meyer when he's in the H3 Dome. The Vikings will be hyped to right the ship from last weeks loss, and this game is a literal must win for Green Bay, who falls 4 back in the NFC Norris with a loss.
When the Puker's have the ball...
With Farte's thumb hurt, AGreen will have to carry the load in this game. I know Farte says he's fine, but until I see a 50 yd spiral, I'm skeptical. Teams have had recent success running first to setup the pass vs the Vikings. This takes them out of their aggressive play style, and sets up the play action. Look for Green to get a lot of work early, and Franks, Walls and Green to figure heavily in the passing game all day. Driver is a nice deep threat, but he drops passes, and can Farte can get him the ball? I see Ahman Green having a big day, but Farte won't have enough to stay in this one.
When the Vikings have the ball...
A lot of hype around Bennett's return this week, but I don't see him playing a major part in this one. In 1998, Moss torched Green Bay, and Wolf immediately went out to get taller, more athletic DBs. The result is a secondary full of 6 footers, so the Moss Jump Fade pattern is less an option here. More likely, Campbell gets the looks on the fly route, and Moss does more deep curls and crossing patterns. MIN will again try to run the ball, but haven't had the success they expect as of late. At it's heart, this is a big play offense and I expect to see them return to that this week.
Key Matchups
Daunte Culpepper vs GB DBs
I know it's a strange matchup! Teams are letting it fly vs the Packers, who rank dead last in passing attempts/game. This strategy seems to be proving successful as GB only has 9 picks. Also, GB is very thin on the D-line via injuries and free agent losses, so I don't see them getting much pressure. Sharper, McKenzie and Harris will need to make plays for the GB D to stop the MIN O passing attack.
Greg Biekert vs Ahman Green
Green only rushed for 53yds in their initial meeting, but with 2 TDs. However, Green has really hit a groove lately. The Vikes may choose to spy Green with Claiborne since there will be a lot of passes coming his way, but on rushing downs, this is the key. Robbins and Hovan are holding well at the point of attack, but will yeild some holes that the mike must fill. The Vikes don't want GB to start eating clock time and scoring on 8 minute drives, so they'll need to hold Green under a hundy and this is the matchup that will probably determine that.
MIN ST vs GB ST (both ways)
These teams are nearly identical when it comes to KO and punts, both defensed and returned. Not much breakdown needed here, but either team could really swing the pendulum their way with a big day on ST.
SLEEPER ALERT!! Walls could make a nice play vs the Vikes who will probably put Claiborne on Franks or Green, leaving the other, and Walls mismatched.
The Game
NYG did a great job quieting the Dome last week by getting up early. GB will try to do the same. They'll do it in similar fashion, using Green early on the ground, and with short passes to Green and Franks. This will allow them to test Farte's thumb early too. I see a nice day for Green, their best scoring threat. The Vikings will come out trying to get the running game going earlier than they have in the last couple weeks. They had to abandon it early vs NYG, but won't vs GB. Look for 100 yds on the ground in the first half and a quick, short-lived lead. Farte keeps GB w/in 3 by half time, 17-14. Vikes run the ball at will in the second half and get a deep one to Campbell to go up 31-17 before Farte does his thing, bringing them within 10 but running out of time.
Forecast
Minnesota Vikings - 34 Green Bay Packers - 24
Daunte Culpepper - 260 pa.yds & 3TDs, 45 ru.yds & 1TD - Playing like he never left, but needs a better running game to open up game plan
Moe Williams - 110 ru.yds, 35 rec.yds- Will be main part of a 3 headed rushing attack.
Onterrio Smith - 15 ru.yds - Returning kicks, could spell Moe for some touches
Michael Bennett - 50 ru.yds - Gets first action and breaks a long one
Randy Moss - 110 yds & 1TD - Cant be stopped.
D'wayne Bates - 45 yds - Not much in return to action
Kelly Campbell - 35 yds & 1TD - Splits looks with 3 other receivers.
Nate Burleson - 25 yds - Can get open in the RZ, but Moss is dominating those looks right now
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 6 rec.yds, 1TD - Will be forgotten man in RZ spread formation.
Aaron Elling - 2FG & 4XP - Tice not showing him confidence in the 50+ yarders
D/ST - 1 INT, 2 sacks - Farte won't be trying to throw deep too much.
Brat Farte - 265 yds, 2TD, 1INT - Thumb limits his options a bit, but still effective.
Ahman Green - 135 ru.yds & 2TDs, 55 rec. yds, 1TD - Huge week as GB best offensive weapon
Donald Driver - 80 yds - Speed guy but Farte can't get it there yet.
Javon Walker 45 yds - Not stepping up
Bubba Franks - 75 yds - Good option, seam routes always open vs Vikes, could lose some of this to Walls
Ryan Longwell - 1 FG, 3 XP
D/ST 2 sacks - Neither D plays very well in this one.
GO VIKES!
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| « Last Edit: Oct 30th, 2003, 10:16pm by Stegfucius » |
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3 straight underperforming seasons, one nitwit head coach, 2 problem child WRs, 1 collosal trade bungle....but a wild boat party with booze and hookers!!!????? Priceless.
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Red Zone Master
# 179
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Re: Vikings - Week 9 Analysis
« Reply #4 on: Nov 3rd, 2003, 3:23pm » |
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Just when the Vikings think they have it going well, the weak defense rears it's ugly head. It now appears the aggressive D of the first 6 games is being outmatched by the short game, as has been the case with DEN, NYG and now GB in the last 3 weeks.
No play could have illustrated the recent poor play better than the Javon Walker vs Denard Walker play where JW left DW with a jock hanging down around his 2 broken ankles on a beautiful move to score.
I expected AGreen to have a big day, and for Farte to have success in the short passing game, but I sure didn't expect the Viking D to be so porous vs the run this week, and that's what ultimately cost them IMO.
on Oct 30th, 2003, 1:18pm, captainpurple wrote:When the Puker's have the ball...
With Farte's thumb hurt, AGreen will have to carry the load in this game. I know Farte says he's fine, but until I see a 50 yd spiral, I'm skeptical. Teams have had recent success running first to setup the pass vs the Vikings. This takes them out of their aggressive play style, and sets up the play action. Look for Green to get a lot of work early, and Franks, Walls and Green to figure heavily in the passing game all day. Driver is a nice deep threat, but he drops passes, and can Farte can get him the ball? I see Ahman Green having a big day, but Farte won't have enough to stay in this one.
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Well, Green certainly had his day, but the TE didn't get used as much as I expected. It was RB all day, all the time in this one.
on Oct 30th, 2003, 1:18pm, captainpurple wrote:
When the Vikings have the ball...
A lot of hype around Bennett's return this week, but I don't see him playing a major part in this one. In 1998, Moss torched Green Bay, and Wolf immediately went out to get taller, more athletic DBs. The result is a secondary full of 6 footers, so the Moss Jump Fade pattern is less an option here. More likely, Campbell gets the looks on the fly route, and Moss does more deep curls and crossing patterns. MIN will again try to run the ball, but haven't had the success they expect as of late. At it's heart, this is a big play offense and I expect to see them return to that this week.
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Campbell didn't see anything, but Moss came up with his big play. All in all, the MIN O was successful enough to win this one, the D let them down.
on Oct 30th, 2003, 1:18pm, captainpurple wrote:
Key Matchups
Daunte Culpepper vs GB DBs
I know it's a strange matchup! Teams are letting it fly vs the Packers, who rank dead last in passing attempts/game. This strategy seems to be proving successful as GB only has 9 picks. Also, GB is very thin on the D-line via injuries and free agent losses, so I don't see them getting much pressure. Sharper, McKenzie and Harris will need to make plays for the GB D to stop the MIN O passing attack.
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Kudos to GB DBs who took away the big play for the most part.
on Oct 30th, 2003, 1:18pm, captainpurple wrote:
Greg Biekert vs Ahman Green
Green only rushed for 53yds in their initial meeting, but with 2 TDs. However, Green has really hit a groove lately. The Vikes may choose to spy Green with Claiborne since there will be a lot of passes coming his way, but on rushing downs, this is the key. Robbins and Hovan are holding well at the point of attack, but will yeild some holes that the mike must fill. The Vikes don't want GB to start eating clock time and scoring on 8 minute drives, so they'll need to hold Green under a hundy and this is the matchup that will probably determine that.
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Big-time failure on the Vikes part here, and GB ran all day on them. Biekert and Co should be embarrassed.
on Oct 30th, 2003, 1:18pm, captainpurple wrote:
MIN ST vs GB ST (both ways)
These teams are nearly identical when it comes to KO and punts, both defensed and returned. Not much breakdown needed here, but either team could really swing the pendulum their way with a big day on ST.
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DRAW - not really any factor, give it to GB for recovering the on-side kick at the end to seal it.
on Oct 30th, 2003, 1:18pm, captainpurple wrote:
Forecast
Minnesota Vikings - 34 Green Bay Packers - 24
Daunte Culpepper - 260 pa.yds & 3TDs, 45 ru.yds & 1TD - Playing like he never left, but needs a better running game to open up game plan
Moe Williams - 110 ru.yds, 35 rec.yds- Will be main part of a 3 headed rushing attack.
Onterrio Smith - 15 ru.yds - Returning kicks, could spell Moe for some touches
Michael Bennett - 50 ru.yds - Gets first action and breaks a long one
Randy Moss - 110 yds & 1TD - Cant be stopped.
D'wayne Bates - 45 yds - Not much in return to action
Kelly Campbell - 35 yds & 1TD - Splits looks with 3 other receivers.
Nate Burleson - 25 yds - Can get open in the RZ, but Moss is dominating those looks right now
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 6 rec.yds, 1TD - Will be forgotten man in RZ spread formation.
Aaron Elling - 2FG & 4XP - Tice not showing him confidence in the 50+ yarders
D/ST - 1 INT, 2 sacks - Farte won't be trying to throw deep too much.
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Aftercast
Minnesota Vikings - 27 Green Bay Packers - 30
Daunte Culpepper - 202 pa.yds & 2TDs, 16 ru.yds & 1TD - 1 less TD than I projected, no big plays though
Moe Williams - 63 ru.yds, 26 rec.yds- Will be main part of a 3 headed rushing attack.
Onterrio Smith - zilch - Returning kicks was all he saw
Michael Bennett - 43 ru.yds - Looked great, something for Vike fans to take heart in
Randy Moss - 87 yds & 1TD - $$$ right on.
D'wayne Bates - 5 yds - Not much was an overstatement
Kelly Campbell - zilch - Could get open, very diss-appointing
Nate Burleson - 51 yds - Got more looks, but DC wasn't looking his way enough.
Jimmy Kleinsasser - 13 rec.yds, 1TD - Hope you read this and played him! 
Aaron Elling - 2FG & 3XP - Tice showed confidence this week, and I was only off by 1 XP
D/ST - 1 INT, 1 sack - Pretty close
on Oct 30th, 2003, 1:18pm, captainpurple wrote:
Brat Farte - 265 yds, 2TD, 1INT - Thumb limits his options a bit, but still effective.
Ahman Green - 135 ru.yds & 2TDs, 55 rec. yds, 1TD - Huge week as GB best offensive weapon
Donald Driver - 80 yds - Speed guy but Farte can't get it there yet.
Javon Walker 45 yds - Not stepping up
Bubba Franks - 75 yds - Good option, seam routes always open vs Vikes, could lose some of this to Walls
Ryan Longwell - 1 FG, 3 XP
D/ST 2 sacks - Neither D plays very well in this one.
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Brat Farte - 194 yds, 3TD, 1INT - Even better than I thought he would be.
Ahman Green - 137 ru.yds, 52 rec. yds, 1TD - I scared myself with this one! missed on the TDs though
Donald Driver - 45 ru.yds , 26 rec.yds - I meant total yards in the projection! Really!
Javon Walker 42 yds & 2 TDs- Shut me up by stepping up big-time
Bubba Franks - Nothing for the TEs in this one, very suprising
Ryan Longwell - 3 FG, 3 XP
D/ST 2 sacks - BINGO! right on the money!
When all said and done, what suprised me most was only 7 of 18 completions when to a position other than RB. The Viking linebackers were torched in every sense this week, and that's where the game was lost. Even so, Viking were in it to the end, and a huge stop by the Pack with 9+mins to go, really cost them a chance to win it.
Well, on to the Chargers, where the Vikes hope to get back on the winning track.
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3 straight underperforming seasons, one nitwit head coach, 2 problem child WRs, 1 collosal trade bungle....but a wild boat party with booze and hookers!!!????? Priceless.
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Red Zone Master
# 179
oh Lord, deliver us from the fury of the Norsemen!
Posts: 1045
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Re: Vikings - Week 9 Analysis
« Reply #7 on: Nov 3rd, 2003, 4:13pm » |
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on Nov 3rd, 2003, 3:52pm, Philly wrote:Good analysis captain... I have to admit that the Eagles game against the Pack next week scares me. The Eagles have had trouble shutting down runners lately and haven't faced any really good ones - like Ahman.
What is your read with the Onterrio Smith sitch. Is he relegated to return duties with only a spot carry here and there? I've got him in my money league and need a decent RB as a backup since Portis has a bye next weekend. I was originally hoping that Onterrio would get some action and be enough to carry me through week 10. |
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Shut down Green, and you can beat the Pack right now. One thing you didn't see in the Vike game was a deep ball. Farte had some nice hard throws, but not any real deep balls. That may be that they simply didn't need to take the risk as all the short stuff was working, but it could also be that he doesn't have the thumb strength to throw that one. Anyway, your team has their work cut out for them!
As for OSmith, hate to be the bearer of bad news, but OSmith is almost certainly a special teams player from here on out, with maybe a carry or two. Bennett looked great, and I've not heard of any setbacks suffered from last night's action.
Keep your ears on for news of a setback to Bennett, but barring that, OSmith pretty much missed his opportunity for taking over the starting role this year.
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3 straight underperforming seasons, one nitwit head coach, 2 problem child WRs, 1 collosal trade bungle....but a wild boat party with booze and hookers!!!????? Priceless.
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Red Zone Master
# 179
oh Lord, deliver us from the fury of the Norsemen!
Posts: 1045
Back to top
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Re: Vikings - Week 9 Analysis
« Reply #8 on: Nov 3rd, 2003, 4:16pm » |
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on Nov 3rd, 2003, 3:57pm, bakes781 wrote:| Your Vikes are starting to resemble my Pats of a year ago. We started out 3-0. Then the run D was non-existent & we were pass happy on offense. Seems to me like you guys have to go back to running the ball. Establish control of the line & punish teams with play action later. With Michael Bennett back in action that shouldn't be too hard to do. |
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I think you're right no the mark here bakes. The Vikes were hitting 7 & 8 yards a carry running the ball, but in the 3rd, got away from it. They threw 1st, then ran on second and had 3rd and mid ydg several times.
I really have a problem with Linehan's game plans for the last couple games. YOU'VE GOT 1650# ON THE D@MN LINE, RUN THE BALL!
*phew*, Had to get that out. thanks!
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3 straight underperforming seasons, one nitwit head coach, 2 problem child WRs, 1 collosal trade bungle....but a wild boat party with booze and hookers!!!????? Priceless.
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