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   Patriots ~ AFC Championship Analysis

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Topic: Patriots ~ AFC Championship Analysis (Read 337 times)

bakes781

# 236

Super Bowl XXXIX

Posts: 290

Patriots ~ AFC Championship Analysis
« on: Jan 16^th, 2004, 2:47pm »

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AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

Patriots Vs. Colts

Last meeting in late November the final score was Pats 38 Colts 34. In the final seconds the Colts were within 1 yard of giving the Pats only their 3rd loss of the season. However the 1st half of that game was dominated by the Pats. We had a 21 point lead in the 3rd. Weiss for whatever reason felt it wasn't enuff & continued to air it out instead of running some clock. Brady threw back to back INTs that were converted into Colt TDs. Now up by only 7 Charlie finally decides we better run it now & Faulk coughes the ball up deep in our end of the field. Colts were held to a FG. After another unsuccessful 3 & out Walter kicks an 18 yard punt. Manning takes his team from midfield all the way to the 1st & goal. 1st & 2nd down James is only able to get to the 1 yard line after 2 attempts. 3rd down Manning tosses a fade to the corner which is out of reach for the WR. 4th & goal they give it to James a 3rd time & Willie comes around the corner to make the game saving tackle.

In that game things were slightly different for both teams. The Pats were w/o Troy Brown & Antowain Smith. The Colts were w/o Brandon Stokley. Since then Stokley has become an integral part of the explosion known as the Indy offense. In 2 playoff games Manning & Co. have looked unstoppable. Maybe that's b/c they have been. Punter Hunter Smith has yet to make an appearance in the playoffs. The Patriots got here by beating Indy's division foes from Tennessee. It was a hard fought game that came down to a FG by Vinatieri. It was played in frigid temps & was no fun for anybody. That is with the exception of those like me watching from home.

The weather is looking significantly better compared to last week. We may reach the freezing mark of 32 by kickoff. There's a chance of light snow but that shouldn't be serious. The Pats have won 11 of their last 13 meetings with the Colts since '96. Brady is 3-0 lifetime. Although Manning has put up some great #s against New England he has been unable to get the job done against Belichik. Much like a chess match Romeo/Belichik vs. Manning. It will be fun to see what happens even before the snap when the Colts offense takes the field. Manning loves to get everybody to the line & call the plays from their. Against KC he was able to read what the defense in doing & audible to a run early & play action later. My feeling is the best & possibly the only way to beat these guys is by blitzing early & often. I saw we dare them to run Edge up the middle. Hold Rodney & Bruschi responsible for him & let everybody else get after Peyton & his WRs. Jam them at the line & send Vrabel & McGinest off the edges. We got big Ted Washington to plug up the middle. Along with pro bowl DL Richard Seymour those 2 should be able to contain James for the most part. This is important b/c w/o a threat of running game Manning is w/o his best weapon. The play action pass is the key to Indy's success. Offensively the Patriots are looking at wounded bunch on the other side of that ball. The Colts DBs are hurting & the coaching staff knows this. They will look to get a lead early & HOPEFULLY run A Smith till his knees are sore in the later half of the game. Much like in their last meeting field position will be very important. If Bethel can take off like he did last time & like Hall did last week then we will be hard to beat. The last point & maybe the most imprtant of all is the kicking game. Adam was clutch last week & has always been Mr Reliable in the playoffs. It was discovered this week that he is not 100% Something with his back I believe. He's gonna have to tough it out & I expect he will be needed a bunch. Vanderjagt has yet to miss a FG ALL season. As amazing as that is he has yet to face conditions like he will have to face this Sunday. I predict both the P & K will have their work cut out for them in Foxboro.

Patriots Statistical Breakdown:

Tom Brady ~ 250 yards passing, 1 TD & 0 INTs
Kevin Faulk ~ 20 yards rushing, 20 receiving
Antowain Smith ~ 120 yards rushing & 1 TD
Troy Brown ~ 60 yards receiving & 1 TD
Bethel Johnson ~ 40 yards receiving
Deion Branch ~ 50 yards receiving
David Givens ~ 30 yards receiving
Christian Fauria ~ 30 yards receiving
Daniel Graham ~ 20 yards receiving
Adam Vinatieri ~ 4 FGs & 2 PATs

Colts Statistical Breakdown:

Peyon Manning ~ 250 yards pass 1 TD & 2 INTs
Edgerrin James ~ 50 yards rush & 1 TD, 20 yards rec
Dominic Rhodes ~ 15 yards rush, 10 yards rec
Marvin Harrison ~ 70 yards receiving
Reggie Wayne ~ 50 yards receiving & 1 TD (May be out?)
Brandon Stokley ~ 30 yards receiving (May be out?)
Troy Walters ~ 30 yards receiving
Marcus Pollard ~ 30 yards receiving
Pete Mitchell ~ 10 yards receiving
Mike Vanderjagt ~ 3 FGs & 2 PATs

FINAL SCORE

Patriots
26
Colts
23

I strongly believe the Patriots will come out on top once again. We are 9-0 at home & playing against a dome team is clearly to our advantage. I won't go as far as to guarantee victory or anything, but I simply can not envision a scenario where we get beat at home. Barring any extremely poor officiating, I will not be bitter if we do lose. I know that the winner of this game will likely go on to be the Super Bowl Champs, so I am very excited about this Sunday's game.

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bakes781

# 236

Super Bowl XXXIX

Posts: 290

Re: Patriots ~ AFC Championship Analysis
« Reply #1 on: Jan 16^th, 2004, 2:56pm »

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http://www.foxsports.com/named/FS/NFL/gameTrax?gameId=20040118017

I saw on foxsports.com that WR Reggie Wayne is listed as OUT for the AFC title game. Anybody know if this is accurate?

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Philly

UFF Primetime Prophet

# 29

Pay, I said pay attention, son.

Posts: 5675

Re: Patriots ~ AFC Championship Analysis
« Reply #2 on: Jan 16^th, 2004, 4:23pm »

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on Jan 16^th, 2004, 2:47pm, bakes781 wrote:

I know that the winner of this game will likely go on to be the Super Bowl Champs, so I am very excited about this Sunday's game.

If the Eagles and Pats both win on Sunday, I really like the Eagles chances against the Pats in the Super Bowl. If the Colts win, I'm not sure the Eagles would be able to keep up with them.

As far as Reggie Wayne... I know he missed some practice time before the Chiefs game because of "tired" legs. But I hadn't heard anything at all about him missing the Pats game. He isn't even listed on the official NFL injury report. So, I wouldn't put too much stock into the Fox report. If it was true, they'd be making a bigger deal of it.

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steelkings
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Re: Patriots ~ AFC Championship Analysis
« Reply #3 on: Jan 16^th, 2004, 10:22pm »

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I live in Indy and ive herd nothing of a problem with Wayne. However Brandon Stokleys 1 month old son has severe Meningitis. They say dad may skip the trip to frozenboro to stay with his son.

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bakes781

# 236

Super Bowl XXXIX

Posts: 290

Re: Patriots ~ AFC Championship Analysis
« Reply #4 on: Jan 19^th, 2004, 10:36am »

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Patriots win their 14th consecutive game. I'm a bit under the weather so I'll keep this short & sweet. I knew we would win. Defense is THE way to a championship & yesterday was more proof of that fact.

on Jan 16^th, 2004, 2:47pm, bakes781 wrote:

Patriots Statistical Breakdown:

Tom Brady ~ 250 yards passing, 1 TD & 0 INTs
Kevin Faulk ~ 20 yards rushing, 20 receiving
Antowain Smith ~ 120 yards rushing & 1 TD
Troy Brown ~ 60 yards receiving & 1 TD
Bethel Johnson ~ 40 yards receiving
Deion Branch ~ 50 yards receiving
David Givens ~ 30 yards receiving
Christian Fauria ~ 30 yards receiving
Daniel Graham ~ 20 yards receiving
Adam Vinatieri ~ 4 FGs & 2 PATs

Patriots Actual Breakdown:

Tom Brady ~ 237 yards passing, 1 TD & 1 INT (solid)
Kevin Faulk ~ 8 yards rush, 8 rec
Antowain Smith ~ 100 yards rush, 8 yards rec (BIG)
Troy Brown ~ 88 yards rec (sorely missed last meeting)
Bethel Johnson ~ 6 yards rec
Deion Branch ~ 23 yards rec
David Givens ~ 68 yards rec (great complimentary WR)
Christian Fauria ~ 8 yards rec
Daniel Graham ~ 0 yards rec
Adam Vinatieri ~ 5 FGs & 1 PAT (perfection)

on Jan 16^th, 2004, 2:47pm, bakes781 wrote:

Colts Statistical Breakdown:

Peyon Manning ~ 250 yards pass 1 TD & 2 INTs
Edgerrin James ~ 50 yards rush & 1 TD, 20 yards rec
Dominic Rhodes ~ 15 yards rush, 10 yards rec
Marvin Harrison ~ 70 yards receiving
Reggie Wayne ~ 50 yards receiving & 1 TD (May be out?)
Brandon Stokley ~ 30 yards receiving (May be out?)
Troy Walters ~ 30 yards receiving
Marcus Pollard ~ 30 yards receiving
Pete Mitchell ~ 10 yards receiving
Mike Vanderjagt ~ 3 FGs & 2 PATs

Colts Actual Breakdown:

Peyon Manning ~ 237 yards pass 1 TD & 4 INTs (fooled again)
Edgerrin James ~ 78 yards rush & 1 TD, 13 yards rec (decent day all things considered)
Dominic Rhodes ~ 16 yards rush, 17 yards rec
Marvin Harrison ~ 19 yards rec (The Law Won)
Reggie Wayne ~ 46 yards rec
Brandon Stokley ~ 22 yards rec
Troy Walters ~ 30 yards rec
Marcus Pollard ~ 90 yards rec & 1 TD (Pats Killer)
Pete Mitchell ~ DNP
Mike Vanderjagt ~ 0 FGs & 2 PATs

on Jan 16^th, 2004, 2:47pm, bakes781 wrote:

FINAL SCORE

Patriots
26
Colts
23

FINAL SCORE

Patriots
24
Colts
14

I knew that when I said this game was essentially the Super Bowl that it would ruffle some feathers, no pun intended Philly. I stand by my statement. I honestly believe that we have already won the Super Bowl. No disrespect to your Eagles but we would have crushed them & we will crush the Panthers on February 1st.

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Philly

UFF Primetime Prophet

# 29

Pay, I said pay attention, son.

Posts: 5675

Re: Patriots ~ AFC Championship Analysis
« Reply #5 on: Jan 19^th, 2004, 3:18pm »

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Congrats on the win! It's been awhile since those Pats were in the Bowl, so you deserved this one.

All kidding aside, I'll be pulling big-time for the Pats in two weeks. Hard not to like that team.

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