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Champ - '94, '99, '02, '04
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My take on Travis Henry...
« on: Apr 3rd, 2004, 7:08pm » |
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I just made a fairly big trade involving four fairly big-name players, Terrell Owens, Chris Chambers, Travis Henry and Jimmy Smith, in the GBRFL and I thought my comments on the Travis Henry end of it were worth publicly posting (trade announcement here: http://www.fantasyfootballer.com/cgi-bin/theGridiron/YaBB.cgi?board=53;a ction=display;num=1073657494). This is NOT AT ALL a typical Steggie trade. Even though the GBRFL is a deep-keeper league, still, analyzing players for fantasy-football purposes is about weighing BOTH the talent of the player and, even more importantly, the situation the player is in. This time, though, I just went with raw (big-time) talent (as I "see" it) and the long run (so to speak,  double-entendre intended),... not my style. I am usually all about "immediate impact" with only little consideration of the long term and really only contingent consideration of raw talent. Based on Henry's performance, especially last year in a pathetic offense and on a broken leg, I quietly became a HUGE fan. I see BIG-TIME potential in him like, in the recent past, I did in Priest Holmes, whom I traded for early in the '02 preseason before he signed with K.C., and Jamal Lewis, whom I traded for early last offseason and said he would contend for and probably win the rushing title in '03. Travis Henry has a VERY BRIGHT future in the NFL,... BUT it may not be with the Bills and it may not be that clear to see in '04.
He may be staring at what may very well turn out to be his worst season ever in the league in '04. Willis McGahee is a threat that cannot be ignored or denied. I don't even know what kind of "windows" to assign to Henry (or McGahee) for this year. Within relative reason,... the possibility exists that they could split carries; there is also the possibility that Henry could continue to be used as their featured back with McGahee being used, just for '04, to give him breathers, or if Henry were to go down with an injury, it isn't impossible that McGahee could even win the starting job.
The way I looked at it with specific regards to the trade... I wanted to move Owens once his leaving San Francisco became final and he was destined to be in Baltimore or Philadelphia  and Chambers after the Dolphins acquired Boston . Bottom line, you can't get that much for Owens anymore, or Chambers for that matter. Owens's "windows" are VERY wide-open at this point given the uncertainty as to how his situation will pan out, as are Henry's. I have an aging backfield, which in a 10-team, 12-player keeper league will spell disaster sooner or later, probably sooner. I do have Charlie Garner, who I think will be good for around 1,000 rushing yards, 1,600 combined yards and 9 combined touchdowns, to fill in for a year at my #3 RB spot or at least to platoon with Henry in '04 at the #3 hole.
At this point, Henry is about the best you can ask for for Owens. He is about as top-flight of a running back as you are going to get.
In any event, if you are in a (DEEP) keeper league, here's the point regarding Henry. Even if he has an underproductive year this year, which is quite likely, he WILL be back on the scene in a BIG way in '05. This guy is just WAY TOO GOOD to not succeed, despite what happens in '04. So, remember well the virtue of patience!
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