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UFF Primetime Prophet
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Draft Day Dilemma
« on: Sep 1st, 2004, 10:49am » |
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OK... my money league drafts this Saturday (9/4). Because the guys are spread out geographically and have weird schedules, we are doing another autodraft (yuck).
I've got my rankings together (we rank the players at each individual position, and then pre-select which position we want to select in each round).
Rosters are 15 deep, starting 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D/ST.
Scoring: (Passing: 1/25 yards, 6/TD, -1/INT or FL, 2/2-pt, 2/300+ yds) - (Rushing/Receiving: 1/10 yards, 6/TD, -1/FL, 2/2-pt, 1/50+ yd TD) - (Kicking: 1/XP, 3-4-5/FG) - (Defense/ST: 6/TD, 2/FR or INT or Safety, 1/sack, 15 for 0 PtA and -5 for every 10 PtA)
Here's my question: I have the #9 (of 12) pick in the draft. These guys go RB for the most part, however there is a possibility that one or two guys ahead of me will draft a WR or a QB. How should I rank my positions?
Right now, I have:
1st - WR
2nd - RB
3rd - RB
4th - WR
5th - RB
6th - QB
7th - WR
8th - DST
9th - QB
10th - RB
11th - WR
12th - TE
13th - WR
14th - K
15th - QB
I'm hoping for a shot at Moss in round 1, then grab a Rudi or DD on the way back. (My concern is that Moss will go earlier and I'll be stuck with Harrison or Holt as a first round pick.) Or would it be better to take a RB first and WR second? Then I could grab a James/McAllister/Lewis if others stray from the RB in the first. And I'd also get a Torry Holt, Terrell Owens type in round 2.
Needless to say, I hate the #9 position, especially in an autodraft.
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Red Zone Master
# 179
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Re: Draft Day Dilemma
« Reply #3 on: Sep 1st, 2004, 3:23pm » |
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Your right on the divide aren't you?! 
I think I'd go RB, cuz you gotta figure 1-6 are Priest, LT, Ahman, Portis, Deuce and Zander. 2 spots left in front of you with Lewis, Taylor and Edge left. You will one of these. If someone does take Moss in front of you, a better stud RB slides to you. If you take WR and someone takes him, you get stuck with Holt or Harrison, and that is simply not acceptable w/o points for receptions.
Don't forget Faulk. If you've got a homer or a guy with a whim in front of you who thinks he's going to be back (NOT!), you could even end up with Deuce! But that's probably looking through the rosy glasses a little to hard.
I'd go RB - RB, and hope for ....wait for it.......wait for it........ Kevin Barlow! to slip to you at 16 on the way back. (I assume it's serpentine, maybe not?) Anyway, some are high on Barlow this year, so you may get 2 good backs, or 1 and an underacheiver, depending on your opinion.
If you go RB-WR, you will most likely not get Moss or Harrison, but Holt may slip to 16. You will almost surely get Johnson, Santana or Owens there.
Good luck!
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Red Zone Master
# 179
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Re: Draft Day Dilemma
« Reply #6 on: Sep 1st, 2004, 6:07pm » |
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on Sep 1st, 2004, 4:51pm, Philly wrote:
Love the team name man! 
With those wildcards in front of you, there's an even better chance one of the last 3 1B-tier RBs (Lewis ((only because of trial)), Edge, Taylor). You gotta go RB and grab one of those.
I think I'm talking myself into WR the second round. As we discussed in the Barlow thread, there just aren't that many backs to be had after 9 or 10. You've got that big group of unknowns like CBrown, KJones, JJones, QGriffin, TJones/ATrain, EGeorge, Henry/McGahee, Minny RBBC, TMinor, LSuggs, CDillon, the list goes on and on. I think at 16, coming back, you should still be able to get one of the top four (Moss, Holt, Owens or Harrison). I say that because someone always goes QB  which should free up one of these guys. Then round 3 will hopefully still yeild one of these tier 2 guys.
Man, this designation of a position in a round throws a wrench into it doesn't it!
GO VIKES!
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3 straight underperforming seasons, one nitwit head coach, 2 problem child WRs, 1 collosal trade bungle....but a wild boat party with booze and hookers!!!????? Priceless.
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Gridiron Great
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Re: Draft Day Dilemma
« Reply #7 on: Sep 1st, 2004, 6:49pm » |
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on Sep 1st, 2004, 6:07pm, captainpurple wrote:
Love the team name man!
With those wildcards in front of you, there's an even better chance one of the last 3 1B-tier RBs (Lewis ((only because of trial)), Edge, Taylor). You gotta go RB and grab one of those.
I think I'm talking myself into WR the second round. As we discussed in the Barlow thread, there just aren't that many backs to be had after 9 or 10. You've got that big group of unknowns like CBrown, KJones, JJones, QGriffin, TJones/ATrain, EGeorge, Henry/McGahee, Minny RBBC, TMinor, LSuggs, CDillon, the list goes on and on. I think at 16, coming back, you should still be able to get one of the top four (Moss, Holt, Owens or Harrison). I say that because someone always goes QB which should free up one of these guys. Then round 3 will hopefully still yeild one of these tier 2 guys.
Man, this designation of a position in a round throws a wrench into it doesn't it!
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No way. The key is that he will at least get 2 of the top 16 backs!!!
Priest Holmes
2 LaDainian Tomlinson
3 Clinton Portis WAS
4 Ahman Green GB
5 Jamal Lewis BAL
6 Shaun Alexander SEA
7 Deuce McAllister NO
8 Edgerrin James IND
9 Fred Taylor JAC
10 Corey Dillon NE
11 Marshall Faulk STL
12 Travis Henry BUF
13 Domanick Davis HOU
14 Kevan Barlow SF
15 Stephen Davis CAR
16 Rudi Johnson CIN
17 Tiki Barber NYG
18 Brian Westbrook PHI
19. Thomas Jones
IF you do not take two of these backs, you have REAL question marks. After top 5 receivers, they are basically a dime a dozen. I strongly believe you have to take advantage of your second round pick and get a stud running back!!
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Red Zone Master
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Re: Draft Day Dilemma
« Reply #8 on: Sep 1st, 2004, 8:46pm » |
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on Sep 1st, 2004, 6:49pm, DirkDiggler wrote:No way. The key is that he will at least get 2 of the top 16 backs!!!
...
IF you do not take two of these backs, you have REAL question marks. After top 5 receivers, they are basically a dime a dozen. I strongly believe you have to take advantage of your second round pick and get a stud running back!!
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I agree, there are ??s after these; however, is it worth the gamble to get a top flight receiver? If there's guys taking Ds in the first couple rounds (unlikely), and a couple of them taking QBs in round 2(pretty likely), it's quite possible Philly could land #19 in round 3 at pick 33.
I'd go for it. IMO, Holt or Harrison at #16 giving you 11 -13 TDs is better than ending up with Faulk, Barlow or Tiki at that pick.
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3 straight underperforming seasons, one nitwit head coach, 2 problem child WRs, 1 collosal trade bungle....but a wild boat party with booze and hookers!!!????? Priceless.
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Gridiron Great
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Re: Draft Day Dilemma
« Reply #9 on: Sep 1st, 2004, 9:34pm » |
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on Sep 1st, 2004, 8:46pm, captainpurple wrote:
I agree, there are ??s after these; however, is it worth the gamble to get a top flight receiver? If there's guys taking Ds in the first couple rounds (unlikely), and a couple of them taking QBs in round 2(pretty likely), it's quite possible Philly could land #19 in round 3 at pick 33.
I'd go for it. IMO, Holt or Harrison at #16 giving you 11 -13 TDs is better than ending up with Faulk, Barlow or Tiki at that pick.
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There is a BIG IF. I seriously doubt that 3 people between picks 1-15 do not take wide receivers. There are only 3 top flight receivers. So then the question begs would you rather have Chad Johnson or Dominic Davis/Kevan Barlow/Rudi?
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Head Coach
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Re: Draft Day Dilemma
« Reply #10 on: Sep 1st, 2004, 9:41pm » |
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What about a completely different idea........
Wr-Wr.......Here is the deal, you figure that there are 4 stud receivers, 5 if you count Chad Johnson. After those it really takes a step down. If you go Wr Wr you could easily end up with 2 of the top 3 which is a big big advantage. Then pick your next 3 or 4 picks at running back. You can pull a crew of guys the likes of Curtis Martin, Kevin Jones, Lee Suggs, Tike Barber, Duce Staley, Thomas Jones. Now if you go 4 in a row chances are you will find one diamond in the rough and another good back. The thing is that even though running backs are the most important, they also are very deep this year. I drafted last week with this idea in the 9 hole of a 10 team draft where you start 3 recievers and 2 running backs........I ended up with Harrison, Holt, and Chad Johnson......and still got Rudi Johnson and Thomas Jones in the backfield with K. Jones as a back up.
So I would say go
1: WR
2: WR
3: RB
4: RB
5: RB
6: RB
7: QB
then however you wanted with the rest
get 2 stud recievers and go real deep at running back hoping to pull that diamond.
Just an idea.
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UFF Primetime Prophet
# 29
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Re: Draft Day Dilemma
« Reply #12 on: Sep 2nd, 2004, 9:54am » |
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Thanks for all the discussion guys... I'm still on the fence about things.
Just some more fodder... top scorers at each position in our league last year:
QB - Manning (368), Culpep (356 - missed 2 games), Hasselbeck (341), Green (340), McNair (317)
RB - Holmes (371), Tomlinson (339), Green (335), Lewis (299), Portis (273)
WR - Moss (263), Holt (242), CJohnson (196), Harrison (183), Boldin (182)
I grabbed Portis (1.03), JLewis (2.10), Holt (3.03), CJohnson (4.10), and Green (5.03) last year. QBs get some favorable scoring in our league, however I still feel I can wait a bit and get a Green, Favre, Pennington, or Brooks in rounds 5 or 6.
All of this discussion is helping me. We're all going to try to set a date for a live draft for next season, but we're stuck with the autodraft this year. This is my money league, but there's bragging rights too. I've been in this league since 1998, won it once, and been top 3 every year since then (except for a dead-last finish in 2001).
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Gridiron Great
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Re: Draft Day Dilemma
« Reply #15 on: Sep 3rd, 2004, 2:36pm » |
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on Sep 3rd, 2004, 1:58pm, Philly wrote:OK... got my players ranked. Also ranked the positions...
1. RB
2. RB
3. QB (went QB here because they get 6 pts/TD)
4. WR
5. WR
6. RB
7. WR
8. QB
9. D-ST
10. RB
11. TE
12. WR
13. WR
14. K
15. QB
I don't know if anyone else here has used SI.com for an autodraft before or now. A friend of mine said I should log into the draft room at the beginning of the draft and see how fast it moves. Maybe I could switch the positional rankings as it moves along based on who is available. I doubt it will work. I imagine it locks everything down and completes the entire draft in a matter of seconds.
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Glad you went RB RB.
I am not sure I would go QB in round 3. Manning and Culpepper will surely be gone. I don't see much difference between the rest of the quarterbacks. However, I do see a difference between the WRs that would be available.
If you wanted to be really gutsy, take a third running back in round 3, then wr in round 4 and 5, then QB in round 6. If you take a RB in round 3, you would AT WORST, get the 33rd running back. I would be willing to bet that most teams will go 2 RB and 1 WR/QB in front of you. So I would be willing to be you would get about the 20th best RB.(WHO IS GOING TO START!!!) versus getting the scrubs later on.......
Just more food for thought.....
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| « Last Edit: Sep 3rd, 2004, 2:37pm by DirkDiggler » |
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UFF Primetime Prophet
# 29
Pay, I said pay attention, son.
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Re: Draft Day Dilemma
« Reply #16 on: Sep 3rd, 2004, 4:16pm » |
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on Sep 3rd, 2004, 2:25pm, Mossaholic wrote:
Thanks for finding this.  I haven't checked their site lately - gotten stuck going to the same few over and over again. Interesting article and charts.
on Sep 3rd, 2004, 2:36pm, DirkDiggler wrote:
Glad you went RB RB.
I am not sure I would go QB in round 3. Manning and Culpepper will surely be gone. I don't see much difference between the rest of the quarterbacks. However, I do see a difference between the WRs that would be available.
If you wanted to be really gutsy, take a third running back in round 3, then wr in round 4 and 5, then QB in round 6. If you take a RB in round 3, you would AT WORST, get the 33rd running back. I would be willing to bet that most teams will go 2 RB and 1 WR/QB in front of you. So I would be willing to be you would get about the 20th best RB.(WHO IS GOING TO START!!!) versus getting the scrubs later on.......
Just more food for thought.....
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Some very tasty food too.  I've got a little less than 18 hours to think about it though.
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UFF Primetime Prophet
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Pay, I said pay attention, son.
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Re: Draft Day Dilemma
« Reply #19 on: Sep 4th, 2004, 10:35am » |
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1 - RB - E. James
2 - RB - R. Johnson
3 - WR - T. Owens
4 - WR - S. Smith
5 - QB - A. Brooks
6 - RB - L. Suggs
7 - WR - J. Smith
8 - QB - J. Harrington
9 - D/ST - Panthers
10 - RB - T. Wheatley
11 - TE - A. Gates
12 - WR - B. Lloyd
13 - WR - R. Ferguson
14 - K - J. Feely
15 - QB - K. Boller
I love this team. I am very happy with my RBs. All 4 are starters on their team. All 4 are guys I have in my top 20 at the position (except Suggs, who could end in the top 20). WR is great too. I have 3 I can count on every week. I'll watch the waiver wire for a 4 or 5 that might be better than Lloyd or Ferguson (Richard Smith, perhaps?). My QBs are OK. Brooks is a solid starter and Harrington should be fine as a backup. I'll dump Boller for a waiver pickup at another position. TE is very solid. I love Gates this year. I might look for a #2 on waivers (Kinney, LJ Smith, Stevens, Witten available). Kicker is solid (Hansen, Conway, Nedney available). Excellent defense (Seahawks and Vikes still available as backups.)
Phew... I was very nervous about this draft, but every year I do well. I guess I just spend more time ranking the lists than others do. (Our commish got Anquan Boldin in the 3rd round  ).
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| « Last Edit: Sep 4th, 2004, 10:36am by Philly » |
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) and I got better WRs as a result. It was a good idea though. 