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Chargers FF-specific Team Report
« on: Nov 18th, 2004, 6:43pm » |
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by Travis Cooper
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 02:15 Sun Oct 16 2005
News: Week Six: The Arch-Nemesis Raiders
Fantasy Football Slant:
A bitter defeat on Monday night, and a short week to ponder the ifs, should be plenty enough motivation for the Chargers this week -- as if playing the Raiders wasn't itself enough motivation.
There has been some question this week about Drew Brees' status for the game, but it looks like he will indeed play. That being the case, he's a definite must-start. The Raiders' defense has been pretty bad this year, especially against the pass. One caveat, however: the Raiders' D showed up two weeks ago and did a good job shutting down Dallas (especially in the running game). Nevertheless, Brees and LT are high #1 plays this week.
Antonio Gates is a high #1 play as well. He's been very consistent with yardage, garnering a decent number of catches and tds as well. McCardell, on the other hand, had an abysmal fantasy showing last week, catching just one ball, and that for 5 yards. Don't expect that ridiculousness to continue, but on the flip side, don't expect McCardell to keep up his heretofore early-season tear. He'll be a decent #3 play this week. Eric Parker had a solid performance last week, but he will remain inconsistent until the #2 and #3 positions at wr are solidified (and even then he'll still be Brees' 4th option or so). Keep him benched.
Until further notice, keep the San Diego defense on the bench.
I'm inclined to not pick a winner here, since I'm still winless in that department this year. But this game is intriguing -- I could easily see it becoming a blowout. I like the Chargers here 31-24.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 01:35 Sun Oct 9 2005
News: Week Five: Another Big Game
Fantasy Football Slant:
What a huge win last week for the Bolts, against the Patriots at Foxboro. But the joy is short-lived, for the Chargers' schedule is absolutely brutal: how's this for a five week schedule -- New England, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Philadelphia, Kansas City (3 of which are on the road).
This week the Chargers play host to the Steelers, on Monday Night Football, baby! Now despite my 0-4 record for predicting the winners of Chargers' games, the productivity of the individual starters is more consistent than a superficial view of these games would indicate. Brees makes a solid, but not top-tier start, LT has been his usual self, Gates gets lots of looks and yards, and McCardell takes a backseat in that department (though he's been getting more tds than expected). With all the momentum, and being at home, I expect the Bolts to continue the offensive powerhousing. LT has just been mauling defenses, and I see him doing more of the same against Pitt, even though the Steelers have been allowing very few rushing yards so far this season. Brees has been quiet, but productive: if you've got him, play him. He makes a solid #1 start this week, despite Pitt's solid defense. Gates has been extremely consistent since coming off his suspension -- he's gone for 6 catches and 80-100 yards each of those 3 games. Continue to play him as a top-3 tight end. McCardell has been hard to predict: after an unbelievably productive week 3, he had only one grab in week 4 (although it was a td). Continue to be skeptical, if only because of his inconsistency. However, if you're not loaded at wr, starting him as your #3 receiver just might be worth a gamble.
As for the defense, don't look for a lot of takeaways. The Steelers like to pound the ball, and the Chargers haven't been getting all that many turnovers anyway.
Dare I pick a winner? Sure. Bolts win, 34-24.
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Re: Chargers FF-specific Team Report
« Reply #1 on: Oct 9th, 2005, 1:09am » |
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Time & Date of this Update (PST): 11:30 Sun Oct 2 2005
News: Week Four: The Big Bad Pats
Fantasy Football Slant:
Last week's tilt against the Giants was surprisingly high-scoring, definitely contrary to my prediction. And yet the performances displayed by Chargers' fantasy players were in the general area of my predictions (barring McCardell's td strikes), so I feel justified in once again presenting to you, my readers, my predictions for another week of Bolts football.
A game at New England is never promising, but better now than in December. I think it will be a game centered around defense. Unless they fall behind, the Chargers will utilize LT as their offensive ramming machine, heeding the high-caliber backfield of New England's defense. And despite the great defense of New England, look for LT to get his due. He is still a high #1 play, and MUST be in your lineup. Brees is going to take a backseat (unless they need to come from behind). He's a low #2 start: if you've got a quality backup (Collins, etc.) start the backup. That being said, I do believe Gates will be productive enough as a starter, so keep him as a starter (#1 even). McCardell has been slippery to predict this year: look only for 5 or 6 touches and decent yardage: he's a #3 start, at best.
DO NOT assume that my comment about this game being defensive means that the Chargers' defense is a good start this week. New England will be careful with the ball, so I don't see the Bolts' getting turnovers (plus, sacks will be few and far between). Bench the D.
All in all, I like the Pats here. Pats win, 27-23.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 19:50 Sat Sep 24 2005
News: Week Three: The Giants Come to Town
Fantasy Football Slant:
Two disappointing and excruciating losses in a row, combined with the arrival of the Giants in San Diego, make for a tough week. While Gates performed well last week, as did LT (McCardell did well enough), those who started Drew Brees on their fantasy teams had a bitter pill to swallow. To make matters worse, it doesn' t look too good for the Bolts this week.
The Giants are on a tear, albeit against mediocre-to-bad teams (Arizona and New Orleans). Their offense is putting up points, and their defense is stuffing the opposition, especially when it really counts (the Giants' defense has put up ridiculous fantasy points so far). However, Aaron Brooks did put up some major yardage against the Giants last week (coming from behind, of course), so there is some glimmer of hope here. Still, expect Brees to have nothing more than a standard outing -- he's probably a mid-to-high #2 start this week. LT, as I keep saying, is a must-start -- high #1. Gates also must occupy the starting place on your fantasy team -- he'll keep up his production from last week (6 catches for 80 yards). McCardell did decently last week, considering the insertion of Gates into the lineup, going for over 50 yards on 4 catches. He's a #3 start this week, though: the Giants have been brutal on pass defense (not statistically, but they've got a truckload of interceptions so far, and have allowed only 2 passing tds). No other Chargers receiver need be anywhere near your starting lineup, barring a lucky strike.
This game should be another close one, but I think the Giants will pull it out, 24-20.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 10:50 Sun Sep 18 2005
News: Week Two Preview: Let the Division Rivalries Begin!
Fantasy Football Slant:
After a devastating loss to the Cowboys last week, the Chargers face a division rival in the Denver Broncos. Several things stand out about last week's performances by these teams, and these things should be kept in mind when starting your fantasy players. First, Denver allowed an ungodly amount of points, to MIAMI, no less, a team no one saw going anywhere. McMichael and Booker were fantasy studs last week, and Frerotte was no pushover. This, along with Champ Bailey's ailments, bodes well for those who wish to start Chargers' offensive players. Second, the Chargers' slim defeat against Dallas showed us something: it was stupid to bench Gates.
That being said, here's the weekly words of wisdom. Brees is a good start, especially with Gates coming back -- at worst, Brees makes a low #1 start this week. Gates is definitely a must-start, though we have yet to see him perform this year. Until then, he's assuredly a high #1 start at TE. LT was hit hard last week, and held to low fantasy output, especially considering that he has been one of the best, if not THE best, fantasy running backs the past few years. Of course, you can never sit LT unless he himself is sitting; look for a rebound week, with high #1 fantasy output. McCardell broke through for a monster week last week. How long have I been touting my boy McCardell? A long time, and now he's come through. Yes, 2 tds is somewhat of a fluke, Gates being out and all, but this level of production -- viz., high -- is not a fluke. McCardell makes a solid #2 start against the Broncos. While Parker outgained Caldwell last week, don't look for that to last too long. I still like Caldwell's upside, though I would keep both of them on the bench until one of them begins to stand out. They both are low #4 plays.
This game is really tough to call, as far as whether it will be an offensive or defensive shootout. You know the Broncos are going to have to play better, and the Bolts will turn it up after bitter defeat last week. I like the Bolts in a rather close game, 27-19.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 11:50 Thu Sep 8 2005
News: Week One Preview and Predictions -- The Debacle of "AbsentGate(s)"
Fantasy Football Slant:
Confidence exudes from San Diego at the start of the 2005 season. Drew Brees and LT in particular have made some eyebrow-raising statements: LT says the Bolts' goal is the Super Bowl, while Brees said "we could be as good as any offense ever."
This confidence isn't entirely misplaced, however. The Bolts come in with a huge percentage of their starters returning, and a revamped defense shored up by the addition of Shawne Merriman and Luis Castillo.
Nevertheless, this particular game has some aspects that need close attention on the part of fantasy players. First and foremost, Antonio Gates will not be on the field, since he'll be serving the last game of his suspension. This leaves Brees without his primary target. However, Tomlinson and McCardell can definitely carry that load, and with Reche Caldwell in the mix, don't expect Brees' numbers to see as significant a drop as some may expect, though there will still be less production than normal. Brees may perhaps be a #1 play, but I think rather that he's a borderline #1/#2. Second, Merriman is on the injury list, and quite possibly will not be on the field, despite his adamant determination to play Sunday. It's still a question mark at this point.
As for the other offensive starters . . . Need we say anything about Tomlinson? Unless injured AND not playing, the guy is always a high #1 start. With more riding on his shoulders Sunday, expect a solid, solid start to the season. McCardell would also get a slight upgrade, with the absence of Gates, but he'll be facing an improved Dallas passing defense (they spent two first round picks on defensive ends) -- still, he makes a nice #3 play this week. I see him picking up 70 yards, with a good chance at a td. Reche Caldwell is still a risky play -- keep him as a low #4 or high #5 for this week, and look for increased production as the year goes on. Still, he has more potential than any of the other Chargers' receivers. Nate Kaeding isn't the most solid kicker out there, but with a high-powered offense he will get his share of chances -- he's a high #2 play this week against a good Dallas defense.
Finally, the Bolts' defense makes for an interesting play this week -- can one of the best rushing defenses in the league contain Julius Jones? Will Bledsoe and a solid Dallas wr corps be able to exploit a to-this-point weak passing D? For now, don't be eager to play the Chargers D.
I like the Bolts on Sunday, in a solid game with its fair share of good defense: 20-14.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 03:57 Tue Aug 16 2005
News: Chargers Player Rankings...
Fantasy Football Slant:
This analysis is based on your average 10- to 12-team league and standard scoring, with touchdowns and yardage being evenly weighted. The "Projected Fantasy Role" is where you should plan on lining that player up on your fantasy team from week to week.
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- | | QB | Drew
Brees | High #1 | This ranking may be a little high, but I wouldn't be surprised if he turns in a top 5 qb performance this year -- all the weapons are back, and the receiving corps is developing nicely.
| | QB | Philip
Rivers | High #3 | This is a risky guess. It all depends on whether he'll get playing time, which is unlikely at this point, despite his huge contract.
| | RB | LaDainian
Tomlinson | High #1 | If you have the first pick in your draft, you had better take this guy. He's said publicly that he's taking aim at the rushing record, and he wants 2200 yards this year -- AND he can catch the ball.
| | WR | Keenan
McCardell | High #2 | I have higher hopes for Keenan than many of the experts do. He's a solid, solid receiver, and he'll be the #1 receiver on the team. Of course, Gates will grab a lot of Brees' attention, but McCardell should be . . . well, solid this year.
| | WR | Reche
Caldwell | High #4 | Many seem to think he's got more talent, and forthcoming production, than it would seem. However, his knee is questionable, and he's still playing behind Gates, McCardell, and Tomlinson. I do like him better than Parker, however.
| | WR | Eric
Parker | Low #4 | Parker had a better year last year than Caldwell, but Caldwell may take over his spot. Besides, Gates and McCardell, as well as Tomlinson, are in front of Parker as Brees' targets.
| | WR | Kassim
Osgood | #5 | He's pretty low on the depth chart, what with McCardell, Caldwell, and Parker, as well as with the addition of Vincent Jackson.
| | WR | Vincent
Jackson | #5 | Time will tell. At this point, ranking him is a risky enterprise. The only sure thing is the number of people in front of him, and the presence of Gates and Tomlinson as receiving threats.
| | TE | Antonio
Gates | High #1 | If he signs soon, or as long as he signs before the season starts, he's gold. Great year last year. Now that he has some good experience, combined with his great talent, look for another great year.
| | PK | Nate
Kaeding | Low #1 | He did well enough last year, but his production isn't top-notch. Still, he's on a pretty potent offense, so look for some decent numbers.
| | D/ST | ---------- | Low #1 | I really couldn't decide between High #1 and Low #1. To be exact, I would say "Mid #1." The defense will be better this year, with the addition of Merriman and Castillo to shore up the pass rush. Still, it's not top-of-the-line, as far as fantasy stats go, although it is true that predicting defensive fantasy output is almost impossible. As far as special teams is concerned, the Chargers have a sleeping giant, or, if you will, an X-factor, by the name of Darren Sproles. A fourth-round pick, Sproles is an electric player who can return kicks and make plays in the backfield a few times a game.
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Time & Date of this Update (PST): 13:20 Mon Aug 1 2005
News: LATE SUMMER UPDATE
Fantasy Football Slant:
A couple of updates on the Chargers front . . .
I watched Cold Pizza this morning. Marty Schottenheimer was on the show, and he provided a few nuggets of information. First, he stated that the competition at quarterback is open at this point. Marty said that if Brees keeps on playing as he did last year, it will be tough for Philip Rivers to get the position, but that, nevertheless, the position was still open. I found this pretty surprising at first glance, but when you look at the situation and the Charger's vested interest in Rivers, it makes a lot more sense.
Training camp having opened, there are a few players who are conspicuously absent. Antonio Gates is holding out, asking for more money after an absolutely stellar '04 campaign. And, it seems that his teammates support his move: Tomlinson and Brees have said that they understand why he is doing it, and that he has to do what he thinks is best.
Jesse Chatman, Tomlinson's backup, has been released by the team, while Luis Castillo, defensive lineman and first round pick, agreed to a five year contract (under which he could make up to 7 million). Second-round pick Vincent Jackson, a wide receiver, also signed with the team.
Finally, Shawne Merriman still has not signed with the Chargers. Unlike Gates, though, Merriman does not know the Chargers' defense like Gates knows the Chargers' offense and its playbook. So getting to camp quickly should be more of a priority for Merriman and the Chargers than for Gates. The Chargers really need Merriman there if they want to make a dramatic improvement on defense.
On a side note, Drew Brees disclosed that he played most of last year with a separated shoulder, and that he had surgery in the offseason to fix the shoulder. This further highlights the quality of his play last season.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 19:45 Fri Jul 1 2005
News: SUMMER UPDATE
Fantasy Football Slant:
Well, the summer football doldrums are here, and yet there are still offseason moves, and therefore there is still some information to inform you about to keep you up to date. As of now, the Chargers are really looking to shore up their pass rush (and their passing defense in general), which was the main motivation for drafting Shawne Merriman. Their pass rush has been atrocious (only 29 sacks, third worst in the league; overall, the 31st ranked pass defense). But there is a contract situation with Merriman. He missed the offseason workouts, due to a perceived lack of protection clauses for unsigned players in offseason workouts. Contract negotiations are to begin sometime in July, according to AJ Smith (team GM).
There have been a few contract extensions -- Keenan McCardell, linebacker Steve Foley, Pro Bowl alternate and defensive tackle Jamal Williams, coach Marty Schottenheimer, and general manager A. J. Smith. Williams agreed to a five year extension, keeping him in San Diego until 2010. This signing, combined with the contract extension of Steve Foley, comprises a big step in working on the Chargers' pass defense; however, Merriman remains unsigned at this point.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 22:35 Mon May 23 2005
News: DRAFT REVIEW
Fantasy Football Slant:
The Chargers surprised no one with their picks in the 2005 draft. It would really have been nice if the Bolts had been able to pick up Mike Williams to complement McCardell (for some unknown reason, the Lions felt the need to add a top-tier receiver -- now they have Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, and Mike Williams -- what the hell is up with that?). Still, the Chargers made the good move of stacking their defense. Shawn Merriman will have an immediate impact on the pass rush defense, something the Chargers sorely need in view of their middling-to-ugly pass defense. They also picked up Luis Castillo in the first round, a defensive tackle best known for failing the drug tests in February's combine. However, he will be another welcome addition to the Bolts' defense.
Although the Chargers' second round pick was a wide reciever (Vincent Jackson), the real meat of the draft for the Chargers was in their first two picks. Overall, the Chargers met some pressing defensive needs while adding a few players, later in the draft, in offensive roles. Expect to see the biggest impact on pass defense -- Merriman should be a great addition.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 14:15 Sat Apr 16 2005
News: OFFSEASON AND PRE-DRAFT
Fantasy Football Slant:
The Chargers have had a relatively quiet offseason. However, they have managed to solidfy some positions. They slapped the franchise tag on Drew Brees, giving him 8 million for one year (which leaves open the Philip Rivers card a year down the road). Keenan McCardell was given a two-year extension. Jesse Chatman, who filled in brilliantly for LT last year, penned a one-year deal. Notable cuts include Doug Flutie and Tim Dwight.
The Bolts are sitting pretty for the draft. They have two first-round picks -- 12th and 28th. For the first time in years, the Chargers have the luxury of not having to choose by position, but rather by talent. They can choose the most talented player available, as opposed to the previous years of having to fill in egregious holes on the team. However, look for the Bolts to keep an eye out for a WR or pass rusher. They will need someone to complement McCardell (while hoping Reche Caldwell, or perhaps Eric Parker, will step up), and they will want to address their shortcomings on pass defense, which is the weakest aspect of the team.
The 2005 schedule is very up-and-down for the Chargers. They're going to face New England, Philly, Indy, and Pitt; but they will also play Miami, Buffalo, Washington, and the New York Giants. However, I think the most intriguing matchup comes twice next year, both times versus the ancient archnemesis -- the (new-look?) Oakland Raiders.
Look for more news to come.
PLEASE do NOT post to this thread! This thread is only to be appended to by Travis Cooper.
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Re: Chargers FF-specific Team Report
« Reply #2 on: Oct 9th, 2005, 1:11am » |
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Time & Date of this Update (PST): 17:30 Fri Jan 07 2005
News: ROUND 1 OF THE PLAYOFFS, BABY!
Fantasy Football Slant:
What a season for the Bolts. Huge performance for a team that was totally ignored, and I mean TOTALLY ignored. With the exception of an early game against Denver, the Chargers losses were all close games: within a touchdown. Regardless, 12-4 on the year is absurdly unbelievable.
One of the teams that the Bolts lost to was this week's playoff opponent, the New York Jets. Now I've been saying all year that the Jets are overachieving, that their record belies their mediocrity. But C-Mart keeps the Jets at a higher level somehow. Their defense has been solid this year, but the last few games they haven't looked too good. They will need to step up big against the Bolts, because this matchup has San Diego win written all over it. The Jets have absolutely NO deep passing game, or even a short passing game that is a threat. Moss was the biggest fantasy bust of the year, in my estimation. The Jets will rely on C-Mart for the offensive firepower, and against the Chargers that will be tough. The weak spot of the Chargers' D is the passing game: they give up a lot of yards. But their run-D is as stingy as Scrooge: they're 3rd in the league. The Jets will have to open up the passing game and hope to do better than Trent Green did last week: he did get 350 yards passing, and 30+ completions, but threw only one touchdown to four interceptions.
For those of you still playing out your fantasy teams, here are some predictions. The Chargers will probably play Martyball, especially in the beginning. LT will of course get his fair share of carries, and yards, and tds. Brees will look for Gates, as usual, but look for the veteran and playoff-experienced McCardell to step up. C-Mart will get a lot of carries, unless this game turns into a shootout. Pennington will be about as good a play as he was in the regular season, which is to say, not that good a play.
Prediction: Bolts 31, Jets 17.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 12:00 Sun Jan 02 2005
News: Chiefs and Chargers
Fantasy Football Slant:
What a game this should be, as long as the Bolts don't sit their starters. The Chiefs, I've been saying all year, are a better team than their record indicates. They've beaten some good teams, and beaten them in style (remember the 56-10 destruction of Atlanta?): they picked Denver apart, they have beaten Indianapolis and Baltimore, and yet they lose to bad teams. I don't get it, but I know this: when they show up, they can beat anyone in the league.
The Chargers sustained a very close defeat last week. Last week was the first week all my predictions were pretty much accurate: even the game score was close. The Chargers played well, especially in the first half, but eventually succumbed.
Against the Chiefs the Chargers should really have a good offensive day. Brees and Gates will connect at least once, LT will get his normal 120 yards and one touchdown (or two), and probably will get a good deal of passes also. Trent Green should do well against a suspect San Diego secondary; look for Tony G. to get some good numbers. In the end it will be the Bolts, in a rather close finale for the season. Chargers 38, Chiefs 31.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 00:55 on Sun Dec 26 2004
News: Big Game of the Week: Bolts vs. Colts
Fantasy Football Slant:
Unsurprisingly, my predictions for last week's Snow Bowl versus the Browns were pretty accurate: no fantasy output for the Browns, a big game from LT, and a decisive Chargers win. I say unsurprisingly because both teams are pretty predictable. The Chargers have been especially predictable fantasy-wise, which seems to me to mean that they have been consistent.
This week is a huge game, one of the best of the year, in my opinion (right up there with the Pitt vs. New England game). One unbelievable offense (Colts) vs. another solid offense (Bolts), and one very good defense (Bolts) against a not quite as good but improving defense (Colts). This is the toughest call I've had to face this year. Peyton has been cooling off a little, and the Chargers have been relying more on LT than they did in the middle of the season. The Charger defense has been quite good all year (especially last week), but the Colts, while also doing well, have not been as stingy, especially when it comes to yardage. The Colts have given up a lot of yards, but surprisingly few points (20 a game). The majority of the yards given up has been via the passing game; therefore this could be a re-surgence week for Drew Brees, especially considering the fact that there is a distinct possibility this game will become a blowout, a "last-one-to-have-possession-wins-the-game" sort of blowout.
I don't like the matchup between San Diego's secondary and the Colts passing machine. Peyton should have some fun with the Chargers there. But this matchup could be equalized by the fact that the Chargers might be able to concentrate more heavily on the pass if their defense stops the run. If the Bolts shut down Edge early, look for the Colts to have some trouble passing the ball (that is, more trouble than they're used to, which probably won't look like much trouble). On the flip side, the Colts' defense has been better than the yardage stats indicate. They don't give up a ton of points, considering that a good deal of the points they do allow come in garbage situations. Still, the Chargers should exploit a defense that remains the Colt's Achilles heel.
Peyton will break the record, Brees will regain some of his hot numbers, LT will be steady as a rock, and Harrison and Stokley might both eclipse the 1000 yard mark for the year. But this game prediction calls for remembering some good advice: bet with your head, not your heart. I would love to see my Bolts win, and that clearly is a possibility, but I think the Colts will squeak this one out: 34-28.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 01:15 on Sun Dec 19 2004
News: Feast and Famine
Fantasy Football Slant:
Time for the Browns to roll into town. It's like a cannibal tribe inviting unsuspecting travelers to dinner: it'll be a feast at the expense of one party.
The Browns have given up over 45 points a game the last three games. That's right, over 45 points a game. The Bolts have been tearing it up offensively, putting up over 30 points against a staunch Bucs defense last week. A big week is in store for the Chargers, led again by LT. Brees should put up decent numbers, but the Browns are much worse against the run than the pass. The Chargers will exploit this, and LT will run wild. And if the game isn't very close, LT may get garbage yards and tds, as long as they don't bench him.
The Browns managed a grand total of 26 yards last week . . . 26 YARDS! This against a pretty good Buffalo defense. It won't be quite so futile an effort this week, but don't expect to see more than 2 touchdowns. No offensive player on this team is worth a fantasy start. It's not even debatable at this point. Even San Francisco has one viable fantasy player (Eric Johnson); Cleveland is totally devoid of individual offensive output.
The only way this game is close is if the Chargers have a "we're-in-first-place-and-we-don't-know-what-to-do-so-we're-going-to-blo w-it" meltdown. Otherwise, expect 150 yards and a few tds for LT, a solid 200 yards, 1 or 2 td game from Brees, and a decent game for Gates. The Browns output, if there is enough to speak of, will be in the passing game, since they'll be trying to keep up.
Final score: Bolts 35, Browns 17.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 03:25 on Sun Dec 12 2004
News: The Big Bad Bucs
Fantasy Football Slant:
Last week's predictions were actually pretty bad. Gates and Brees didn't have hot fantasy numbers, Plummer had bad numbers, as did McCardell. Only LT lived up to the hype, putting up 2 tds. Such unpredictability makes for an entertaining watch, but also for fantasy and prediction nightmares.
This week's matchup is a difficult one to assess, aside from the fact that both teams' defenses are very strong. The Bucs are rejuvenated, and in the playoff hunt. Pittman is an all-purpose nightmare, Griese is really stepping up, and the vaunted Tampa D has done wonders. Just last week they SHUT OUT a Vick-led Falcons offense. In addition, they put up 27 points against them. The Chargers really clamped down on Jake Plummer last week, getting 4 ints. But they didn't do so well offensively, barely getting 200 yards.
Thus, the one and only thing all signs point to is a good defensive battle. Two solid defenses will tough it out. Both teams will try to pound the ball to keep possession, but look to Tampa to try to open up the passing game to take advantage of the Chargers' secondary. Pittman should have a good day for yardage, especially receiving, but a td may be too much to ask for. Griese will probably get 1, maybe 2 touchdowns. On the Bolts' side, expect another solid day from Tomlinson. Gates is a must-play with all he's done this year. McCardell has some added incentive to do well against the team that spurned him, but I wouldn't get too excited about his fantasy output.
Look for several field goals from both teams, one or two turnovers on each side, and a close fight to the finish. When all is said and done, and when the fat lady sings, the Bolts will once again be the ones left standing, 20-13.
Let's close in Chris Berman style: "The Bolts, 10-3? Is this possible? Breezy vs. Griese. Joey 'I took his' Galloway vs. Antonio 'flying out of da' Gates. Super Bowl champs gone lowly vs. futility become Super Bowl contenders, or rejuvenated team vs. wannabes? Only time will tell."
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 14:15 on Sat Dec 4 2004
News: Who will be right: Steve or I?
Fantasy Football Slant:
It's been two weeks, and my predictions for the Chargers' players keep being very accurate, whereas my predictions of their opponents keep being wrong. Usually-dependable Trent Green absolutely stunk last week, as did Eddie Kennison. Perhaps that's because the Chargers are consistent while their opponents are not. Brees, Gates, LT all will perform . . . again. They have performed most every week this year (after week 3) and I think they will do so again this week against Denver. There is no reason to think otherwise.
Denver's D isn't as vaunted as it was made out to be, though it is certainly still better than average. Jerry Porter burned Champ Bailey last week, and Oakland managed, what was it, 25 points, in Denver, in the snow. Imagine what San Diego can do, at home, in the sun.
This game will be tight, though. KC gave San Diego a run for their money (as expected: KC is a better team than their record indicates), and Denver will also step it up after an embarrassing defeat (unlike Howard Dean). But it's hard to win a game on the road against a division rival who's in first place after you've just had a meltdown at home against a lowly division rival. It doesn't get any worse than that.
Since last week's scoring prediction was pretty close (I said 28-24 Bolts, whereas the final score was 34-31 Bolts), let's try it again. Bolts 27, Broncos 23. (Whadda ya say, Steve?) Lower scoring than last week's game against KC, since Denver has a better D than KC but a less potent offense. Besides, you know Elam's good for lots of fantasy points, so let's give him 3 field goals and a couple PATs. Look for the Chargers to try to dominate early with the running game. LT should have big numbers again, somewhere around 130 yards and 1 or 2 tds. Brees will throw for 1 or 2 tds, probably to Gates and possibly LT. My boy McCardell hasn't gotten much touchdown love this year, but he keeps putting up solid yards and receptions. Last week he was good for something around 6 rec. for 90 yards. Look for more of the same.
The Snake should step it up this week. The Chargers have a great run defense, so expect Denver to open up the passing attack. Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie should get quite a few good looks. Droughns should get some yardage, but probably won't be as productive as LT.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 12:10 on Sat Nov 27 2004
News: Mismatches galore
Fantasy Football Slant:
Well, last week's predictions were fairly accurate. However, I expected a higher-scoring game, and Kerry Collins and Tyrone Wheatley performed differently than expected. Collins had his best game of the year, and Wheatley was nearly worthless. However, Brees did well once again, Antonio Gates kept up the scorching play, and my boy McCardell put up solid numbers.
A complicated week: my boys the Bolts facing my fantasy boys the Chiefs. The matchups all point to a high-scoring game. First, we've got the Bolts' offense vs. an at-best-mediocre Chief's defense. On the other side we have the Chiefs offense vs. a pretty bad Chargers' passing defense. Although the Chargers have a good run defense, the Chiefs have been relying on the passing game as of late, because of Priest's injury. Though obviously the Chiefs would rather have Priest and get him 25-30 carries, this is one week where not having him will hurt them less than usual. As regards Blaylock, I'm as lost as Ashlee Simpson on stage. He tore it up in week 10, then was barely mediocre in week 11. Now he's facing a tough run defense. I guess I'll say don't expect much. Trent Green screwed me over last week: I sat him, fearing the New England D. He proved naysayers wrong, putting up good fantasy numbers. In fact, he's been really solid for a month. Another 300 yard, 2-touchdown game is not only possible, it's expected. Eddie Kennison has been gold the past few weeks as well. He makes a decent start for a third receiver. Gonzo has tapered off a little from his hot streak, but he's still putting up very good te numbers: 6 receptions, 80 yards. Expect more of the same.
For the Chargers, it's back to normal; that is, the best play is once again LT. He's healthy now, and he scorched the Silver and Black last week. Yes, I know the Chief's run defense is better than their pass defense, but that's like saying that Cher's singing is better than her looks. Besides, the reason their run defense is better is probably because most games they play in are shootouts, so they get to play defense against the pass a lot more than the run. That being said, look for the Chargers' great running game to set up a big passing day for Brees. Numbers similar to Trent Green's are a distinct possibility. The recipient of these yards and touchdowns: Gates is first choice, followed closely by McCardell. I think the Chiefs will focus on Gates, leaving McCardell some more space to operate.
Regarding the kickers, I'm reluctant to give concrete predictions. Kaeding hasn't had many field goal opportunities, and neither has Tynes. I see more of the same this week.
Game prediction: Bolts in a close one, 28-24.
Time & Date of this Update (PST): 14:40 on Fri Nov 19 2004
News: Ugly Rivalry turned Uglier
Fantasy Football Slant:
What a great week to start a Chargers thread, with the Bolts facing the hated Raiders, this time with the Raider Nation at home. The fact that this game is in Oakland is one of two factors that make this game different from the one in San Diego. The other fact is Tyrone Wheatley's role in the offense. Neither of these facts means ANYTHING, however, if your offense (insert: Raiders) and your defense (insert: Raiders) is the dictionary definition of futility. Expect another big Charger win.
If you've got a Raider on your fantasy team, it had better be Tyrone. He'll probably be good for decent numbers (assuming your running back situation is not looking good, say, if you have Fred Taylor and Travis Minor). The rest of the team has cataclysmic statistics. Kerry Collins has 5 TDs and 12 INTs. Let me repeat that: Kerry Collins has 5 TDs and 12 INTs (oh, and 2 fumbles). This stat rules out any Raider receiver as a viable fantasy option, unless you're in a league that plays 30+ receivers every week. In that case, start Jerry Rice. Oh wait: he's not there anymore. Oh well, it doesn't matter; you'd get as much production starting the Raiders' Jerry Rice as you would starting any other receiver in their lineup. You'd better not be thinking about any Raider fantasy option other than Tyrone, unless MAYBE it's Janikowski. Seabass is a good kicker, but his opportunities come around about as often as Halley's Comet.
On the other side of the field, you've got four solid fantasy plays. Obviously you never sit LT, unless Marty keeps him on the bench all game. He's not back to 100%, but you know he's good for a td every game. Playing Chatman is a risk; he may play 3 quarters, he may sit on the bench all game. I think he'll only get 5 carries or so, perhaps 10, but it's still something of a crapshoot. Brees is drooling over this matchup: last time he played these guys he was a monster. In fact, last time he PLAYED PERIOD he was a monster. In fact, he's been a monster all year. He's turned into the best free agent pickup in fantasy football this year. Start him with extreme confidence, with Buchanan probably sitting out and the Oakland D one of the worst in the league. Speaking of which, did you know the Chargers offense is the highest-scoring offense in the league? Not Indianapolis, not Minnesota, not Kansas City: San Diego. For receivers, you damn well better start my boy Keenan McCardell. For all those (including me) who had him on their team after the draft (because the computer drafted for you), this is where your patience pays off. Expect good numbers: 6 catches, 90 or so yards, good chance for a td or two. Nate Kaeding is another fantasy must play: last time he played the Silver and Black, he didn't attempt one field goal, and still scored 6 points because of the prolific offense. Play him.
PLEASE do NOT post to this thread! This thread is only to be appended to by Travis Cooper.
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