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Topic: Great year to need a RB! (Read 352 times) |
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Red Zone Master
# 179
oh Lord, deliver us from the fury of the Norsemen!
  
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Great year to need a RB!
« on: Mar 30th, 2005, 10:27am » |
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And a horrible year to have one you want to trade!
This year has a complete GLUT at the RB position. Zander, Henry, Bennett, OSmith, Edge, Lamont Jordan, George... ok, that last one is scraping the bottom of the barrel 
But the point is, there is just no value if you are trying to trade a RB. Vikings are doing almost anything they can to get Bennett or Smith out. From what I'm hearing, they aren't garnering very much in the way of value at all. Speculation is they can't get anyone to give more than a 4th rounder, while the Vikings are intent on getting quality D player or first day draft pick
Bills can't seem to get anyone to bite for Henry, though it sounds as if Arizona may be a suitor. Edge finally signed the Colts tender due to lack of options. Zander is an attractive option if you're in the market, but why give up much with all the options out there?
Add to the mix 3 quality RBs coming out of the draft, and the fact that the teams who need an RB the most (TB, AZ, MIA) all draft in the top 8, and you've got a very very cheap market for quality RBs!
P.S. just saw Denver sent Droughns to CLE! Another RB slot filled.
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3 straight underperforming seasons, one nitwit head coach, 2 problem child WRs, 1 collosal trade bungle....but a wild boat party with booze and hookers!!!????? Priceless.
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UFF Primetime Prophet
# 29
Pay, I said pay attention, son.
 
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Re: Great year to need a RB!
« Reply #1 on: Mar 30th, 2005, 1:47pm » |
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on Mar 30th, 2005, 10:27am, captainpurple wrote:
Add to the mix 3 quality RBs coming out of the draft, and the fact that the teams who need an RB the most (TB, AZ, MIA) all draft in the top 8, and you've got a very very cheap market for quality RBs! |
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That's three STUD RBs coming out that will go in the top 10 picks. There are many other backs that could end up being starters in the league and will be available later. Ciatrick Fason, Marion Barber, JJ Arrington, Ryan Moats, Brandon Jacobs (my fave), Eric Shelton, plus others that are flying much further under the radar.
Quote:| P.S. just saw Denver sent Droughns to CLE! Another RB slot filled. |
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Suggs is still the starter there, as far as I know. William Green was given the permission to seek a trade, although I would imagine that teams will wait until he receives his outright release (now seemingly inevitable) sometime before the season starts if they have any interest in him at all.
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GM
# 400
Spooooon!
Posts: 290
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Re: Great year to need a RB!
« Reply #2 on: Apr 21st, 2005, 12:08pm » |
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The real world running back glut seems to mirror the fantasy running back situation. There are some obvious studs and there is a host of second-tier guys that can get you the points you need.
Tiki Barber is a prime example of the running back depth. Who would have guessed that he would have the type of year that he had? If you say you did, why did not you pick him in the first or second round?
LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander were the cream of the crop last year. That was not a surprise. Based on my leagues scoring system*, both had over 140 fantasy points for the year (about 17.7 a game). Closely behind these two were Curtis Martin, Tiki Barber and Edgerrin James. The next level included Domanick Davis and Corey Dillon. This brings us to a total of nine running back in the top flight.
If you did not have one of these top flight running backs, then there was a group of eight running backs who were all the same. Comparing the top of this group to the bottom, the separation between Brian Westbrook (189 points) and Rueben Droughns (174) was only one point per game. That is not very much. In all fairness, one of these backs was Willis McGahee, who did not start the whole year.
These groups do not include Julius Jones or Steven Jackson, both of whom will have a chance to put up some big numbers this year. Further, Travis Henry, and some of the college guys may be added to this pool of talent.
I am curious if the running back's impact on fantasy football is lower now than it has been in the past. Granted, if you have Tomlinson or Alexander you have nearly gauranteed big numbers each week. From there, the level of impact slops downward.
The depth at the position, along with further rules enforcement changes in the secondary, leads me to believe that an top five wide receiver may have more impact than a running back in spots three through 12. Obviously running backs can score more points more easily. I am thinking about the relative value of a wide receiver compared to others at his position.
So, while guys like Steven Jackson and Tiki Barber could have big impacts this year, I am leaning towards guys like Marvin Harrison and Chad Johnson as big time players in the coming season.
That is why my one protected player will probably be Chad Johnson and not Steve Jackson.
What are your thoughts?
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*league scoring system:
FL - Fumble Lost, Including ST plays -2 points
Pa2P - Passing Two-point Conversion 2 points
PaInt - Passing Interception -2 points
PaTD - Passing TD 6 points
PaYd - Passing Yards 0+ PaYds = 1 point for every 25 PaYds
Re2P - Receiving Two-point Conversion 2 points
ReTD - Receiving TD 6 points
ReYd - Receiving Yards 0+ ReYds = 1 point for every 10 ReYds
Ru2P - Rushing Two-point Conversion 2 points
RuTD - Rushing TD 6 points
RuYd - Rushing Yards 0+ RuYds = 1 point for every 10 RuYds
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QB - Rodgers, Schaub
RB- LT, Lynch, Addai, F.Jackson, D. Foster
WR-Wayne, A.Johnson, C.Johnson
TE-H.Miller
K-Akers, Gould
DST-Steelers
Start-QB,2RB,2WR,TE,K,DST
no rec. pts, 6pt. TD
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Gridiron Great
GBRFLer
Champ - '14, '23
# 5
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Re: Great year to need a RB!
« Reply #3 on: Apr 21st, 2005, 4:02pm » |
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Nice analysis of the RBs out there. It does seem that there is a plethera of RBs. What really amazes me is that Edge and Alexander are available.
What I do not understand is why a team would use a first round pick on a RB, but will not trade for a proven RB that costs less. I guess that is why I will never be a GM. I know the money is more, but a ton of teams have cap room.
Now, to your question, what do I think of keeping Chad Johnson over Steven Jackson? My initial reaction is that you are crazy. After thinking about it, I think you are crazy.
My rational is that while there are a ton of running backs who are good, you notice when you draft they are all gone by round 2? You have got to keep Jackson. If not, you will be majorly handicapped during the draft. In addition, if you keep Jackson, you could use a draft pick to get one of the top receivers. Not even looking at other teams rosters, I can all but guarantee you that no more than ONE WR will be kept. (I would be willing to be zero if I got odds)
So when the draft rolls around, you have Jackson in your pocket, you can than draft a WR. Hell, many good WR are not gone until the third round because of the run on RBs and QBs.
And finally, I hate to mention this to you, but Chad Johnson is no Marvin Harrison.
KEEP JACKSON!!!
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| « Last Edit: Apr 21st, 2005, 4:04pm by DirkDiggler » |
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"Every rule has an exception....the exception can't become the rule"
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GM
# 400
Spooooon!
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Re: Great year to need a RB!
« Reply #4 on: Apr 22nd, 2005, 9:34am » |
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I think most of your assessment is accurate. My guess is that Randy Moss and Hines Ward will be protected in my league. Looking at team rosters and thinking of the owners in my league, I think that Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, Willis McGahee, Duece McAllister, Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis and Ahman Green will all be protected. If this is the case, the following running backs should be available.
Tiki Barber
Domanick Davis
Fred Taylor
Travis Henry
Chris Brown
Jamal Lewis
Curtis Martin
Corey Dillon
Priest Holmes
Julius Jones
Steven Jackson (if I do not protect him)
Addtionally, Peyton Manning and Terrell Owens will likley be available.
The top wide receivers, as I see it, are Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Chad Johnson, Andre Johnson, Tory Holt, Javon Walker, Joe Horn and Hines Ward. If you remove Moss and Ward from this list, the following will likely be available.
Chad Johnson
Marvin Harrison
Terrell Owens
Javon Walker
Joe Horn
Tory Holt
This is a small group of wide receivers who have a high value at their position. One ill timed run on the position would lock me out of having a top flight guy. Conversely, there seems to be a handful of guys who are on par with Steven Jackson, who will still lose some carries to Marshall Faulk, at the running back position.
This is the general thought process behind my tenative protection strategy. I agree that Jackson will probably be a monster. I also think that Johnson will put up even better numbers this year with a more seasoned Carson Palmer at quarterback.
By the way, stats over the last two seasons.
Chad Johnson
YEAR TEAM G GS REC YDS AVG LNG TD FD FUM LOST
2003 CIN 16 14 90 1355 15.1 82 10 66 0 0
2004 CIN 16 16 95 1274 13.4 53 9 63 1 0
Marvin Harrison
YEAR TEAM G GS REC YDS AVG LNG TD FD FUM LOST
2003 IND 15 15 94 1272 13.5 79 10 60 2 2
2004 IND 16 16 86 1113 12.9 59 15 63 1 1
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QB - Rodgers, Schaub
RB- LT, Lynch, Addai, F.Jackson, D. Foster
WR-Wayne, A.Johnson, C.Johnson
TE-H.Miller
K-Akers, Gould
DST-Steelers
Start-QB,2RB,2WR,TE,K,DST
no rec. pts, 6pt. TD
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