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Topic: Texans Offseason Report (Read 491 times) |
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Water Boy
# 468
"I'm comfortable with my alcoholism"- Nick Nolte
 
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Re: Texans Offseason Report
« Reply #3 on: Aug 29th, 2005, 6:02pm » |
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on Aug 27th, 2005, 4:33pm, bgsgfan wrote:Solid work LaHorace. I may just take a shot at prdicting those top WRs, I could use a cookie and a grand.
Are there any Houston players you see as being over- or under-ranked based on how they have been valued this year? |
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Domanick Davis goes anywhere from the 5th to the 15th best back in the draft, depending on the board you consult. Like I said, if your league scores catches then his value gets a lot higher.
Davis is interesting because most rankers either love or hate him, and when I watch him on TV I can understand why. He isn't shifty, bruising, quick, big, or powerful. There is absolutely nothing about his game that makes you think "wow, this kid's got something special."
There's absoultely nothing spectacular about him, but he gets the job done every game. He's the type of player who, when you look at the stat sheet, will make you say "86 yards and a touchdown? with 63 recieving yards on top of that? I watched the whole damn game, where did that come from?" But it's all there, every inch of it.
And that's what puts the "fantasy" in fantasy football. Does Domanick Davis have the talent of Clinton Portis? or Deuce McAllister? or Ahman Green? No, and the real football games reflect that. Will he put up better numbers than Portis, McAllister, or Green? Sure, and that's why you play the fantasy game.
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| « Last Edit: Aug 29th, 2005, 6:30pm by LaHorace » |
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If it came right down to it, I'd rather be Nick Nolte than Gary Busey.
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Water Boy
# 468
"I'm comfortable with my alcoholism"- Nick Nolte
Posts: 29
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Re: Texans Offseason Report
« Reply #4 on: Aug 29th, 2005, 6:24pm » |
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There's a lot of people who like Andre Johnson right now, but I ain't sold. The Texans biggest problem for the last three years has been their o-line. David Carr's spent more time on his back (and with sweaty men on top of him) than your sister. That has an effect on the passing game, especially on the two most sophisticated of deep routes--the stop-fade and the post-corner.
Houston decided to employ these two routes only as a desperation tactic since the third year Miami graduate joined the team. For a speeder like Johnson, that's like having a Ferrari and only taking it as high as 3rd gear. You've gotta air that baby out! YOU'VE GOT A DAMN FERRARI ON YOUR HANDS, LET 'ER RIP!!!
Fortunately for Johnson, speed is not his only excelling attribute. He's a big boy with a thick frame (6'3" and a hearty 219 pounds,) and he makes excellent use of his body to get the football. He runs every route that a reciever can, and he never appears uncomfortable doing it. A favorite play of the Texans is the stop-screen, where the ball is thrown almost as it's snapped to a waiting Johnson, who advances 10 yards after making the first defender miss.
Why does that play work so well? Because there isn't any possibility that the line can screw it up. The Texan's front office apparently thinks that the line problems are a thing of the past, as they made no effort to improve it in the offseason. If they're right, and Johnson can finally run a complicated deep-ball, then he'll be a top 5 fantasy reciever. Even if they're wrong, he's still in the top 10.
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| « Last Edit: Aug 29th, 2005, 6:25pm by LaHorace » |
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If it came right down to it, I'd rather be Nick Nolte than Gary Busey.
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Fantasy Field General
GBRFLer
Champ - '06, '21, '24, '25
# 414
Semper Philosophans
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Re: Texans Offseason Report
« Reply #5 on: Aug 30th, 2005, 11:46am » |
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Hey Austin, nice job on the rankings, and on insightful commentary on your offseason report. That X's and O's stuff goes over my head, man.
One comment. Do you think that Owens and Moss really will be significantly better than Holt or Harrison, as you implied in your rankings? I took Harrison in the second round of my draft (the only receiver taken at that point was Moss), thinking he'll do just as well as TO, with less risk factor involved. Remember, he did get 1100 yards and 15 tds last year.
- Travis
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Water Boy
# 468
"I'm comfortable with my alcoholism"- Nick Nolte
Posts: 29
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Re: Texans Offseason Report
« Reply #7 on: Aug 30th, 2005, 4:37pm » |
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on Aug 30th, 2005, 11:46am, gridiron_legends wrote:Hey Austin, nice job on the rankings, and on insightful commentary on your offseason report. That X's and O's stuff goes over my head, man.
One comment. Do you think that Owens and Moss really will be significantly better than Holt or Harrison, as you implied in your rankings? I took Harrison in the second round of my draft (the only receiver taken at that point was Moss), thinking he'll do just as well as TO, with less risk factor involved. Remember, he did get 1100 yards and 15 tds last year.
- Travis |
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For the life of me, I can't understand all the fantasy experts in the world backing away from Terrell Owens as if he has leprosy. Didn't he catch 14 TD's in 12 games last year? While he has become that much more of an outspoken jerk between then and now, there is absolutely no reason to think that his on-field productivity will drop the slightest bit. TO is smart, smart enough to know that the big contract he's pining for will not come next June unless he shows up between September and February. As such, I would take TO over Harrison.
Maybe I was a little unfair to Starvin Marvin, maybe I wasn't. Whenever I watched a Colt game last year, I didn't get the same feeling from that offense that I did from years before. The passing game used to run through the play action, with Harrison as the primary reciever and Manning checking down through his reads. Now, they still run through a heavy dose of play action, but there doesn't seem to ever be a primary reciever--Peyton just chucks it to whoever's open. It's like a game of BLITZ.
As for Tory Holt, he'll be Tory Holt. He'll have 1300+ yards and 8-12 TDs. So Will Andre Johnson, Chad Johnson, Joe Horn, Steve Smith, and (possibly, probably) Roy Williams, Nate Burleson, Larry Fitzgerald, etc.
I just don't think there's a whole lot to seperate Harrison and Holt from the rest of the pack. Any of these guys have the ability to catch 120 balls for 1800 yards and 20 TDs. Who could've told you at this point last year that Mushim Muhammed would be the leading fantasy reciever last year? Would you have believed them? Were you forewarned about Curtis Martin's career year? Or Tiki Barber's?
All I'm saying here is that the predictions that we make here are based on probability, and that probability has two factors: the scheme that the player operates within, and the player's ability to operate within that scheme.
There are only two recievers in this league who can have an entire offense revolve around them: Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. Draft accordingly.
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| « Last Edit: Aug 30th, 2005, 4:41pm by LaHorace » |
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If it came right down to it, I'd rather be Nick Nolte than Gary Busey.
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Water Boy
# 468
"I'm comfortable with my alcoholism"- Nick Nolte
Posts: 29
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Re: Texans Offseason Report
« Reply #8 on: Aug 30th, 2005, 4:59pm » |
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on Aug 30th, 2005, 2:48pm, StegRock wrote:Currently from atop "The REAL Feed":
Texans cut veteran TE Miller
The Sports Network: NFL (30.08.2005 11:31)
At one time, this guy had had so much promise...  What happened? Injuries...  |
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What happened here is Billy Miller became a bum about a year and a half ago. He dropped passes, he missed assignments, he started to take playing time for granted. Good Riddence.
I am disappointed to see LaTerrence Dunbar go. He was a part of the great TCU tradition of the black players with "La" as a part of their name. In 2000, their roster featured Heisman hopeful LaDamian Tomlinson, LaTerrence Dunbar, LaMarcus McDonald, and LaVar Veale. Alas, only Tomlinson is left...
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If it came right down to it, I'd rather be Nick Nolte than Gary Busey.
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Water Boy
# 468
"I'm comfortable with my alcoholism"- Nick Nolte
Posts: 29
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Re: Texans Offseason Report
« Reply #9 on: Sep 10th, 2005, 8:06pm » |
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on Aug 30th, 2005, 4:37pm, LaHorace wrote:
There are only two recievers in this league who can have an entire offense revolve around them: Randy Moss and Terrell Owens. Draft accordingly. |
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Travis-
If you caught Thursday's ballgame, you saw what I meant. The yardage didn't go to Moss in the second half, but only because he had already severely burned the Pats in the first. When the Raiders finally understood how to manipulate the Pats double coverages, they picked up yards by the chunks. The same thing will happen Monday night against Atlanta. The same thing will happen all damn year.
In the NFL, especially in fantasy football, you have to look at the players upon whom an offense gravitates towards. Randy Moss sent Jeff George to a Pro-Bowl. Terrell Owens made Jeff Garcia look good, and he gave McNabb the best season of his career. No other recievers have the ability to elevate their teams to that level. These are the guys who, unless they break their necks on the field, always need to be considered as the best fantasy recievers in the league while the season is still early.
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If it came right down to it, I'd rather be Nick Nolte than Gary Busey.
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