Author |
Topic: Draft Strategy Question? (Read 589 times) |
|
PA Outlaws
Guest
Back to top
|
???For the first time, our league is going to require that you play a TE. In the past, we started 3 WR's, but no mandatory TE. I am very excited about this, but TE's have never been that valuable in our league. I was wondering when is too early to draft a TE. I know there are only a few top flight TE's -Heap, Sharpe, Gonzalez. What round to TE's usually go in your drafts. One point per 15 yards receiving and two points per TD. Or, do you think it would be wiser to grab some better WR's and settle for a second tier TE. I know it is hard to answer without actual names of who would be available, but just trying to plan out my stategy early. Thanks in advance...... 
|
| « Last Edit: Apr 14th, 2003, 12:49pm by Stegfucius » |
 Logged |
|
|
|
Philosopher King
of Fantasy Football
Site Administrator
GBRFLer
Champ - '94, '99, '02, '04
I love ''the Gridiron''!
 
Posts: 19699
Back to top
|
 |
Re: Draft Strategy Question?
« Reply #3 on: Mar 18th, 2003, 11:44pm » |
 Quote  Modify
|
Well, regrettably fantasy football is being whisked away in this direction of incorporating the mandatory fielding of a tight end. I have played in both kinds of leagues, and I WAY prefer the 3 (or 4) "receiver" (not, by definition, "wide receiver" as tight ends are included) set-up to mandatory tight ends. The value of tight ends in a 3 (or 4) receiver set-up seems to be commensurate with the "offensive," i.e. offensive statistical, value of the position in the "real" game, i.e. in reality, more so than in a system requiring tight ends, which I feel gives the position too much value (and emphasis); hence, this very post.
Anyway, to finally get at answering your question... Don't worry about the position any much more than you would a team defense. Basically, the position is just WAY TOO hard to predict, and if you take one (too) early (as I have done in web site-sponsored and promoted mock drafts), it is really going to hurt (your team). Over the last couple years, the likes of Tony Gonzalez, Marcus Pollard, Chad Lewis, Freddie Jones, etc., etc., were considered locks to have good seasons.  Similar to team defenses, which I think are a necessary evil (you just gotta' represent both sides of the ball somehow), you can get just as lucky late as you can early with a tight end. And, actually the later the better, right? (This, by the way, is another reason for my disgust with the implementation of mandatory tight ends.) Next year, Jeremy Shockey and Todd Heap will be WAY over-valued. DON'T TAKE THE BAIT! There is not an honest soul on earth that will be able to say with any "real" level of certainty that, e.g., the aforementioned first group of four or the likes of Mikhael Ricks, Doug Jolley, Shannon Sharpe (if he doesn't retire), Eric Johnson, Frank Wychek, Ken Dilger, Wesley Walls (if he comes back) etc., etc., will not have better, even perhaps much better, seasons than the latter-mentioned two. Anyway, just in that rambling I named 13 "roughly" equivalent tight ends of the top of my head, and I don't even know tight ends that well. So, if yours is a 12-team league, what really is the difference? The answer: "luck" is the overwhelming factor in what makes the difference between guessing which tight ends will have good numbers in '03 and which ones will not. God, I hate making guys have to deal with this and draft tight ends. 
In any event, good luck, PA! 
|
| « Last Edit: Mar 20th, 2003, 12:58am by Stegfucius » |
Logged |
|
|
|
Red Zone Master
GBRFL2er
CBFL Champ - '03
# 18
He ain't on the all-time list because he's pretty.
Posts: 1296
Back to top
|
 |
Re: Draft Strategy Question?
« Reply #4 on: Mar 19th, 2003, 11:00am » |
Quote Modify
|
I don't know how to describe my exact theory on TEs, Ks, and Ds; but basically I watch the flow of the draft and try to either pick at the start of runs or wait until the end of the draft for all of these positions.
Lets say there are 18 rounds w/ a TE required. I have Gonzo as my top rated TE with Heap, McMichael, and Shockey not far behind and a huge dropoff after that. Gonzo goes top of fifth round - if my turn comes to pick and one of my to four are left (lets say around the bottom of the seventh round) - I might grab him then (depending on other players available). If that type of situation doesn't happen I will probably wait until about the 14th round - before EVERYONE grabs TEs but hopefully right on the cusp of the run - and get a respectable TE. If none of those scenarios works out I'll use one of my last picks and get a guy that looks pretty good.
In theory this worked out exceedingly well for me last year and on many teams I had my second or third ranked TE (Pollard and Sharpe). Alas Pollard totally bombed, but that type of thing is going to happen.
The biggest key to drafting success for me is to know where other people value picks (antsports? has those mock draft rankings - they help) in relation to how I value players. This is THE key to any position. For example, if my top 4 TEs are basically the same as everyone else's, yet my fifth TE is generally considered the 10th best TE; I can wait until about 7 TEs are gone and still get my targetted player. And using the same kind of analyssis, if I have some targetted WRs and backup RBs or QB that I am relatively certain will be available for my later picks, I will go out on a limb and grab a highly ranked TE (Heap, Shockey, etc.) if the timing is right (like I talked about earlier).
|
|
Logged |
11/20/04 - Buckeyes salvage season by stomping that team from up north. (Posted 11/14/04)
|
|
|
Red Zone Master
GBRFL2er
CBFL Champ - '03
# 18
He ain't on the all-time list because he's pretty.
Posts: 1296
Back to top
|
|
Re: Draft Strategy Question?
« Reply #7 on: Mar 30th, 2003, 8:12pm » |
Quote Modify
|
on Mar 30th, 2003, 4:21pm, Keyshawn Johnson 76yards wrote:but if you set-up your team right and get the right match-ups a TE, K, or a DEFs points can mean the difference between a win or a loss.
|
|
Last year I used statistical matchup analysis very heavily, evaluating how well opposing teams did against each position. It worked very well with every position EXCEPT TE. I think the reason is that they are so hit and miss. Now, for Ks, Ds and borderline other players - matchups are HUGE.
|
|
Logged |
11/20/04 - Buckeyes salvage season by stomping that team from up north. (Posted 11/14/04)
|
|
|
|
Home
Help
Search
Members
Games
Login
Register
Reply
Notify of replies
Send Topic
Print
Remove
warning. Hopefully the following makes sense. 
