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UFF Primetime Prophet
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Draft Order Equality
« on: Jul 10th, 2003, 4:10pm » |
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As a result of examining the rosters from the recently completed 2003 CBFL draft, and also from watching the action live, I've come up with a few questions...
First off, I've never drafted with any of you before this (BW's mock aside, although that was an animal of a different color altogether) and came away with a new-found respect for most of you. I've always played in autodraft leagues, where it is hard to gauge who knows what they are doing and who doesn't... I thought I'd sneak some guys under the radar, but that was not going to be the case as everyone else did their homework too...
Anyway, it seems that most people drafted well, but it was the draft order that really dictated the results. Those in the middle seemed to do better than those on either end.
So what I want to know is whether the serpentine draft is the fairest type of draft. I know on the surface it seems to be fair, but when you really look at it in more depth, is it fair?
Has anyone ever done any statistical analysis (or at least know of any) to verify the equality of draft orders?
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Philosopher King
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #2 on: Jul 10th, 2003, 5:23pm » |
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on Jul 10th, 2003, 5:00pm, DirkDiggler wrote:| In years past, when Marshall Faulk clearly seperated himself, I would of sold the farm for him. |
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And, at least for 2002, you'd have finished in the bottom three like someone else here did.  :whistling:
Ultimately, if you have the first pick (or two in a 10-team draft; or three in a 12-team draft) and that guy you picked first doesn't pan out well OR, worse yet, sustains a season-ending injury or one that just eats into his playing time, YOU'RE FRIED, PERIOD! You are NOT going to have the balance that teams picking in the 4-, 5-, 6-, 7- or 8-holes are going to have. Similar stands for guys with really late picks. Their teams are even in a worse predicament if EITHER of their first TWO picks don't pan out, "either" that is. This doesn't really need to be analyzed/quantified! Probably can't be, anyway! If you are picking alongside "competent", "savvy" FF drafters, that's just the REALITY of it! 
In any event, Philly, this is an ironic topic that you started given the post I am about to make on the other CBFL thread here "between the 20's". 
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Fantasy Field General
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #3 on: Jul 10th, 2003, 9:51pm » |
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I think the fairest form of draft is one that I've never participated in, an auction. Everyone has the same chance at every player and if you want a guy bad enough, you can have him. Ultimately it's your ability to value a players value that will win you the championship, not the luck of a good drafting position.
A snake gives an advantage to certain slots, but it's not the fault of the format. This problem is caused by the unbalanced scoring system of the league. With RB's getting so much more value then other positions, the advantage goes to those that are able to draft quality RB's. Problem is, there are only so many "high quality" backs out there. Making EVERY position EQUALLY valuable would solve this problem. No longer would we see drafts where the first 10 picks were RB's. We would get an awesome mix of QB's, RB's, TE's, WR's and K's.  The challenge would lie in figuring out how to balance out the scoring. It could never be 100% equal, but it could be a lot closer then it is now.
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Philosopher King
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #6 on: Jul 11th, 2003, 12:07am » |
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on Jul 10th, 2003, 9:51pm, Walker Boh wrote:| This problem is caused by the unbalanced scoring system of the league. With RB's getting so much more value then other positions, the advantage goes to those that are able to draft quality RB's. Problem is, there are only so many "high quality" backs out there. Making EVERY position EQUALLY valuable would solve this problem. No longer would we see drafts where the first 10 picks were RB's. We would get an awesome mix of QB's, RB's, TE's, WR's and K's. The challenge would lie in figuring out how to balance out the scoring. It could never be 100% equal, but it could be a lot closer then it is now. |
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Eh-hem! A system that largely combats this problem already exists  and will be available to a lucky group of 10 of you soon. 
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That having been said, bg, you should try to make the following a reality...
on Jul 10th, 2003, 10:47pm, bgsgfan wrote:New Scoring Sytem to equalize positional Values:
Start with the standard scoring format, but each week the highest scoring player at each position gets a set # of points which decreases incrementally for each rank (among those players played only). Therefore the best player at each postiion each week would get say 50 points, decreasing proportionately based on the total number of starters per position, down to zero.
Hmmmmmm  |
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Very unique, innovative and brilliant idea  , the kind I like seeing manifested and fostered on "the Gridiron"!  Perhaps, this could be another unique type of league system, like the CBFL's and GBRFL's, endorsed and supported by "the Gridiron". Sounds like a plan! 
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UFF Primetime Prophet
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #7 on: Jul 11th, 2003, 8:28am » |
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on Jul 10th, 2003, 10:47pm, bgsgfan wrote:OK - Just reading the last post by Walker made me think of something. I haven't really thought this out - just brainstorming.
New Scoring Sytem to equalize positional Values:
Start with the standard scoring format, but each week the highest scoring player at each position gets a set # of points which decreases incrementally for each rank (among those players played only). Therefore the best player at each postiion each week would get say 50 points, decreasing proportionately based on the total number of starters per position, down to zero.
Hmmmmmm |
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Interesting twist... so in this case getting a Jeremy Shockey or a David Akers would be just as important as getting the top RB. I'd be very interested to see how this works, although I'm not completely sure that this addresses my original question of draft order equality - but maybe it does...
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UFF Primetime Prophet
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #8 on: Jul 11th, 2003, 8:30am » |
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on Jul 10th, 2003, 9:51pm, Walker Boh wrote:| I think the fairest form of draft is one that I've never participated in, an auction. Everyone has the same chance at every player and if you want a guy bad enough, you can have him. Ultimately it's your ability to value a players value that will win you the championship, not the luck of a good drafting position. |
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I have never done an auction either, although I agree that it is the fairest draft method. Has anyone here participated in a Mock Auction? I think it would be an interesting learning experience for many of us auction virgins. 
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Fantasy Field General
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #9 on: Jul 11th, 2003, 8:45am » |
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on Jul 10th, 2003, 10:47pm, bgsgfan wrote:
New Scoring Sytem to equalize positional Values:
Start with the standard scoring format, but each week the highest scoring player at each position gets a set # of points which decreases incrementally for each rank (among those players played only). Therefore the best player at each postiion each week would get say 50 points, decreasing proportionately based on the total number of starters per position, down to zero.
Hmmmmmm |
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This is a great idea bgsgfan! I read it a few times last night and I didn't really understand, but this morning it clicked! That is the perfect way to balance the scoring and it makes a lot of sense. Why should a RB be more important then a WR? Why should the pick of your TE or K be nearly meaningless? Make all the positions equally important and really shake up draft day! The cool thing is, it would be very easy to implement the scoring into any type of league. I would love to play in a league like this.
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Philosopher King
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #11 on: Jul 11th, 2003, 11:05am » |
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on Jul 11th, 2003, 8:45am, Walker Boh wrote:| This is a great idea bgsgfan! I read it a few times last night and I didn't really understand, but this morning it clicked! That is the perfect way to balance the scoring and it makes a lot of sense. Why should a RB be more important then a WR? Why should the pick of your TE or K be nearly meaningless? Make all the positions equally important and really shake up draft day! The cool thing is, it would be very easy to implement the scoring into any type of league. I would love to play in a league like this. |
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Again, like I stated above, I am ALL FOR this manifesting on "the Gridiron". As for details, bg, though I would start the scoring for QB's, RB's and WR's all at the same level, like at 50 like you suggest, I would still make the points available for TE's and PK's less, like 30 or something. I just can't see a TE or PK having the exact same impact on an FF game as a QB, RB or WR. It is kind of intrinsic, i.e. consistent with the "real" game, that QB's, RB's and WR's have "more" effect on things (offensively) than PK's and TE's. That's just "keepin' it real"! Making them ALL equal doesn't really address the problem, in any case. As stated by WB above, what we mainly want to achieve is equity among QB's, RB's and WR's, i.e. somehow make it that RB's are not so much more valuable than the other two positions. ... Anyway, just my thoughts!  The more mental energy we put into this thing, the better, as I see it! 
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Gridiron Great
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #13 on: Jul 11th, 2003, 12:01pm » |
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on Jul 11th, 2003, 11:45am, DOLFAN wrote:BG i see your theory, but don't like it. True it may solve the problem at hand/discussion of draft position/equality though. IE: what you are saying is that if Harrison gets 178 yds, 15 catches and 2 tds that he could only be worth say...3-5 more pts(6-10%) more than the #2 WR that week who got 112 yds, 10 catches and 1 TD. I see your logic as it relates to the topic. I personally would not want to be in a league like that.
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Uh....aren't you in a league like that already? It is relatively close in theory to the GBRFL. For those unfamilar to the GBRFL scoring, you can win a category by 300 yards or 1 yard using TEAM total it doesn't matter. You still get the same amount of points based on who "wins" the category. THe one extra that GBRFL has is a bonus level for X yards. However, this bonus can be obtained by BOTH teams.
bgsgfan idea is just taking it a different way. Instead of the GBRFL "team total" , it would use individual performance. Every player would be ranked on a weekly basis. Their ranking would give them a tiered scoring based on where they finshed.
I love this idea. As I think about it more, I don;t think you can "rank" TD's scored every week, so I believe it would be easier to "convert" TD's to yardage to help establish where someone ranks weekly. An example for a traditional league now is that a TD is worth 6 points. So, in the "ranking" system that is being discussed should we equate a TD to 60 yards? Or, you can take it a step further so Moe Williams or Zack Crocekett don't become the best backs every week. You can make a receiving TD worth 60 yards, a RB TD worth 45 yards, and a QB TD worth 40 yards(45 if they run it in). These are my randon thoughts.......I am going to have to think about this more.......
My idea makes yardage more important than TD's, but TD's come into play.
Now to think about how to rate the positions.....and would this be head to head or rotisoiree?(sp)
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| « Last Edit: Jul 11th, 2003, 12:04pm by DirkDiggler » |
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #19 on: Jul 20th, 2003, 4:06pm » |
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I was in a league once that ran a ladder draft so round 1 looks like this (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12) then team one moves to the end and everyone slides up one slot so round 2 looks like this (2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1) and then round three (3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2) and so on. You are rewarded for your draft position and through 12 rounds everyone gets a first pick in a round, and your picks are always equally spaced except for the round in which you drop off the ladder. When all is said and done though it is the shrewdness of the drafting not the order!!!! 
Best of Luck 
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Philosopher King
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #20 on: Jul 20th, 2003, 4:43pm » |
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WOW, Bob! It appears that that would give a HUGE advantage to the dude with picks 3 through 7ish. Yea, by the 12th round everything is even, BUT come on! Things start getting thin after Round 8 or 9 and, in short, a first pick in Round 12 does not even come close to equaling a first pick in Round 1.  It seems like it would be more fair if the shifting went the other way around, i.e. Round 1 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12; Round 2 - 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11; Round 3 - 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10; and so on. But, I would think that would favor dudes with picks 10 through 4ish.
After we started debating this, I actually started thinking about a system like this, but a little fairer, albeit slightly more complicated. Do the same thing, but (for a 12-team set-up) shift everything five spots forward each round, e.g., Round 1 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12; Round 2 - 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7; Round 3 - 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2; Round 4 - 10, 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; Round 5 - 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4; Round 6 - 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11; etc., etc. This system seems to divvy out the first CRUCIAL six (or so) rounds of picks MUCH more fairly while still bringing it back to absolute even in Round 12. I would actually like to do the GBRFL2 origination draft like this (but modified accordingly for a 10-team set-up, e.g. a 7-spot move up or back).
(Second edit... This shifting "forward"/"backward" thing is fuckin' me up!  )
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| « Last Edit: Jul 20th, 2003, 6:39pm by Stegfucius » |
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Red Zone Master
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #21 on: Jul 20th, 2003, 4:46pm » |
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on Jul 20th, 2003, 4:06pm, Bob_Oswego wrote:I was in a league once that ran a ladder draft so round 1 looks like this (1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12) then team one moves to the end and everyone slides up one slot so round 2 looks like this (2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1) and then round three (3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,1,2) and so on. You are rewarded for your draft position and through 12 rounds everyone gets a first pick in a round, and your picks are always equally spaced except for the round in which you drop off the ladder. When all is said and done though it is the shrewdness of the drafting not the order!!!!
Best of Luck |
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I'd hate to have the 12th pick in that type of format.
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #22 on: Jul 20th, 2003, 5:09pm » |
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on Jul 20th, 2003, 4:43pm, StegRock wrote:| After we started debating this, I actually started thinking about a system like this, but a little fairer, albeit slightly more complicated. Do the same thing, but (for a 12-team set-up) move everything five spots back each round, e.g., Round 1 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12; Round 2 - 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7; Round 3 - 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2; Round 4 - 10, 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9; Round 5 - 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 1, 2, 3, 4; Round 6 - 12, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11; etc., etc. This system seems to divvy out the first CRUCIAL six (or so) rounds of picks MUCH more fairly while still bringing it back to absolute even in Round 12. I would actually like to do the GBRFL2 origination draft like this (but modified accordingly for a 10-team set-up, e.g. a 6-spot move back). |
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Is this how your example would work out the first 4 rounds?
Round 1 2 3 4
1Pick 1 5 9 3
2Pick 2 6 10 4
3Pick 3 7 1 5
4Pick 4 8 2 6
5Pick 5 9 3 7
6Pick 6 10 4 8
7Pick 7 1 5 9
8Pick 8 2 6 10
9Pick 9 3 7 1
10Pick 10 4 8 2
That still doesn't do nearly enough to relieve the inequality between the top picks - picks 9 and 10 are kind of screwed, as is pick 4 (to a lesser extent). Could you combine the ladder with the snake? In a snake draft, you would say that 10 has one of the worst positions possible - this is even worse for the 10 spot, IMHO.
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Philosopher King
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Re: Draft Order Equality
« Reply #23 on: Jul 20th, 2003, 6:29pm » |
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Okay, well, first of all, bg, you posted so quickly on top of my post that you did not get the edit. Moving them 6 spots in any direction in a 10-team league doesn't work. It would have to be 7, and, actually, moving them backward works a little better than forward (which actually equals 3 forward on second glance). So, it would go:
Round 1 - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
Round 2 - 8, 9, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Round 3 - 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4
Round 4 - 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 1
Round 5 - 9, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Round 6 - 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Round 7 - 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 1, 2
Round 8 - 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
Round 9 - 7, 8, 9, 10, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Round 10 - 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 1, 2, 3
I don't know, dude... That looks pretty darn equitable to me!
Admittedly, though, it does work better for 12-team set-ups.
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over possible strategies ( a one hour commute to work will do that to you). 